Paisagens Geológicas Alpes – Salzbürg, Áustria) Seven Sisters, Sussex (U.K.) Mauna Loa, Havai.
Lessons From Mauna Loa - On the Value of Continuous Time Series
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Transcript of Lessons From Mauna Loa - On the Value of Continuous Time Series
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"Lessons from Mauna Loa: On thevalue of continuous time series."
"Lessons from Mauna Loa: On thevalue of continuous time series."
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IGY CO2 Program
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Mauna Loa and South Pole Records
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Keeling 1960 Tellus Publication
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Pales, J.C. and Keeling, C.D., 1965. Concentration ofAtmospheric Carbon Dioxide in Hawaii. Journal of
Geophysical Research, 70: 6053-6076.
Brown, C.W. and Keeling, C.D., 1965. Concentrationof Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in Antarctica.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 70, 6077-6085
Revelle, R., Broecker, W., Craig, H., Keeling, C.D.and Smagorinsky, J., 1965. Atmospheric CarbonDioxide, Report of the Environmental PollutionPanel President's Advisory Committee, November1965. The White House, pp. 111-133.
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When I began to measure atmospheric carbondioxide and carbon in ocean water, just 50 years
ago this year, my work was praised for showingmore precisely than earlier studies how carbon wasdistributed in nature.
When I persisted in making measurements of thesame kind because I found the results interesting as
pure knowledge, I was supported by programmanagers of science - up to a point. This point wasreached in 1972, after 17 years of my studies.
Charles D. Keeling in 2005:
1On the acceptance of the Tyler Environmental Prize in 2005
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At this juncture in my career I was told explicitly thata line needed to be drawn between what part of my
work constituted basic research and what part wasnot basic research because it was routinemonitoring.
Charles D. Keeling quote:
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The repetitive measurements of my program, evenwhile I was attempting to improve them, I was told,
should be relinquished to a government agencyassigned responsibility for such measurements andeven for where they should be made.
Charles D. Keeling quote:
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The argument for terminating Scripps programhinged on two assumptions:
(1) The effort was dominated by the task ofmaking repetitive measurements.
(2) Repetitive measurements necessarily falloutside the scope of basic scientific research.
M L R d
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1960 1965 1970310
315
320
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330
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Year
CO
2Concentrat
ion(ppm)
Mauna Loa Record
M L R d
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1960 1965 1970310
315
320
325
330
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Year
CO
2Concentrat
ion(ppm)
Mauna Loa Record
M L R d
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1960 1965 1970310
315
320
325
330
335
Year
CO
2Concentrat
ion(ppm)
Mauna Loa Record
M L R d
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1960 1965 1970310
315
320
325
330
335
Year
CO
2Concentrat
ion(ppm)
Mauna Loa Record
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The Airborne Fraction, as of 1970
From: Mans Impact on the Global Environment, 1970, report of the Study of CriticalEnvironmental Problems (SCEP).
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Addressing systematic errors
Manometry - 1959/1961, 1970, 1974.
Revision of estimated CO2 rise rate.
Carrier gas effect, discovered ~1972
Revision of absolute CO2
values of ~+3 ppm
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Mauna Loa
South Pole
El Nino Events
Discovery CO2 of El Nio connectionBacastow, R.B., 1976. Nature, 261pages 116-118.
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Changes in Seasonal Amplitude
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Elements of CO2 program
Time-series
Measurements
War onSystematic
Error
ScientificStudies
Mauna Loa Record
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010310
320
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390
CO2
Concentration(ppm)
Mauna Loa Record
Mauna Loa Record
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010310
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CO2
Concentration(ppm)
Trend expected from
fossil-fuel burning
Mauna Loa Record
Mauna Loa Record
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010310
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CO2
Concentration(ppm)
57% of trend
expected from
fossil-fuel burning
Mauna Loa Record
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A Few Lessons:
(1)For Mauna Loa record, point ofdiminishing scientific return hasnever been realized.
(2) Quality of record has hinged on inintimate involvement of scientists.
(3) Quality also hinges onredundancy.
(4) Normal measures of scientificimpact underestimate actualimportance.
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Citations to date:Watson and Crick (1953): 3085 citationsKeeling (1960): 60 citations
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"Lessons from Mauna Loa: On thevalue of continuous time series."
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"Lessons from Mauna Loa: On thevalue of continuous time series."