Lessons for ecology, conservation and society from the ...
Transcript of Lessons for ecology, conservation and society from the ...
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Lessons for ecology, conservation and society from the SerengetiAnthony R.E. Sinclair
Centre for Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of British Columbia, Canada
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Dr. Simon MdumaHead of TAWIRI & the SerengetiBiodiversity Progam
The Macaulay InstituteFrankfurt Zoological SocietyNSERC, CanadaNational Geographic SocietyWildlife Conservation Society
THANK YOU
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THE TEAM
Simon MdumaStephen MakachaAlly NkwabiJohn MchettoAnne SinclairJohn FryxellRay HilbornRoy TurkingtonKris Metzgerand indirectly
Markus BornerSimon Thirgoodand many others
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Species are being lost at unprecedented rates.
How much can we lose before the ecosystems in which we live become unsustainable?
Species exist within a matrix of other speciesand are subject to the effects of their environment
We must understand how the whole system behaves-lack of understanding could lead to surprise, inappropriate management, or even system collapse
THE WORLD PROBLEM
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- therefore, one must understand important properties of ecosystems to apply
- effective management
- effective conservation
THE NEED
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Changes in Ecosystems can lead to unexpected outcomes
Flathead Lake, Montana
Opossum shrimp added to provide extra food forKokanee SalmonBald eagles
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Spencer et al. 1991 BioScience
Flathead lake, Montana
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Unexpected events occur because ofcomplex interactions.
Illustrated by events in Serengeti, Tanzania
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Rift
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Rift
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Isuria
Scarp
Ol DoinyoLengai
Meru4565
Olduvai
gorge
Ketumbaine2942
Gelai2962
The Serengeti Ecosystem
Salaiplains
Serengetiplains
Loitaplains KENYA
TANZANIA
From Grant Hopcraft
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SERENGETI IS COMPOSED OF TREELESS PLAINS
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..AND SAVANNA WOODLANDS
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Wildebeest is the dominant species
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Wildebeest migration patterns
TANZANIA KENYA
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40 0 40 80 Kilometers
Mean Annual Precipitation
Mean Annual Precipitation (cm)36 - 4646 - 5555 - 6464 - 7373 - 8383 - 9292 - 101101 - 111111 - 120No Data
SNP Boundary
Kris Metzger
The reasonfor dry seasonmigration
1200
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Serengeti Wildebeest Population outbreak –the event that changed everything – to understand it we must go back a century
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The Great RinderpestThe Great Rinderpest
• The Epizootic of 1889 • Ethiopia to Cape by 1896• Die-off of cattle and other ruminants 95%• These include African buffalo• Wildebeest yearling disease present up to
1963• THIS IS THE PERTURBATION THAT UNDERLIES
OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THIS SYSTEM
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Rinderpest
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Incidence of Rinderpest in Serengeti
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Complex events that followed the wildebeest increase
- Grass fires: between 1920s and 1960s 80-90% of savanna was burnt each dry season
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Grass fires prevent tree regeneration below 2 m height
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Repeated burning prevents regeneration and producesa distorted age structure of old trees
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% Acacia tree canopy cover drops rapidly in the 1960s
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Northern Serengeti, Mara triangle 1944
Photo Syd Downey
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1983
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Wildebeest grazing reduces grass fuel and area burnt
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% A
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Complex interactions of wildebeest and the environment
Complex interactions of wildebeest and the environment
The extent of grass fires is determined by thedegree of grazing imposed by wildebeest
….this had consequences on savanna trees
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1980 1986
20031991
Savanna
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Martin and Osa Johnson 1928
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Osa Johnson filming from plane 1933
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NYARABORO FROM EMAKAT
1928 1982
2003
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Instantaneous rate of change in tree density negative 1920s-1960s, then increases rapidlyin 1980s, 1990s following wildebeest
SERENGETI TREE DENSITY
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Lions use thickets to capture prey- more thicket improves success
Lions use thickets to capture prey- more thicket improves success
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Serengeti woodland lion numbers Serengeti woodland lion numbers increase in the 1990sincrease in the 1990s
Wildebeest x 1000
Wildebeest x 1000
Lion data from C. PackerLion data from C. Packer
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Decrease in most resident prey
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Disturbance and multiple statesDisturbance and multiple states
Ecosystems are continually being disturbed
weather eventshuman harvestinginvasions of speciespredation
Disturbance can cause a change of state
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Disturbance changes ecosystems – which do notalways return to the original state afterwards
The role of elephants in Serengeti
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Elephants knock down mature trees andblamed for tree decline
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Trees and elephant predationTrees and elephant predation
1970s – fire rather than elephant shown to be the cause of decline (Norton-Griffiths work in 1970s)
Elephant play another role by feeding on seedlings
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Dublin observed elephants removing almost all seedlings- They hold the system in a grassland state
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Removal of elephants in Serengeti by ivorypoachers in 1980s but not in Mara…..
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..resulting in much food for elephants in the 1990s and 2000s inSerengeti but not the Mara (wildebeest in both)
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KENYA
TANZANIA
SERENGETI - MARA 2005
-hence ecosystems can have more than one state under the same conditions
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Tibetan yak
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Tibetan grasslands near Naqu
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CHANGE IN STATE: swans on Lake Ellesmere, New Zealand
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Disturbance and Ecosystem Processes
What goes wrong if we ignore ecosystems? Their processes for ecosystem functioningFor example
• Hydrology, flux and storage
• Biodiversity and Stability (resilience)
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Saline upwelling in Western Australia
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Biodiversity and stabilityBiodiversity and stability
• species diversity and community resilience
e.g. Australian Eucalypt woodlands
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Original closedeucalyptwoodland
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Degraded eucalypt woodland
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Drawings Frank Knight
Noisy miners reduce or exclude…..
…white-plumed honeyeaters and otherspecies in degraded Eucalypt woodland
Loss of bird diversity in Australian woodland
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Psyllid outbreaksin isolated treesof farmland
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Eucalypt dieback – eastern Australia
Psyllid insect outbreaks cause dieback in exposed trees-disruption of intact forest causes biodiversity loss andecosystem disfunction
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Long time scales - The effects of historyLong time scales - The effects of history
Disturbance events take a long timeTo understand ecosystems we must understandthe long-term events. History is important
Rinderpest – the ecological event in 1889 that changed the course of human history in Africa.It decimated human populations and allowed the colonization of Africa
The ecological effects are still seen in Serengeti today
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Disturbance and history
THE IVORYTRADE
1840s – 1890s
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TIPPU TIPThe great slavetrader of easternAfrica
- 1860s to 1890s
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Ivory from Zanzibar
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The effects of historyThe effects of history
Ivory hunting – affected the vegetation in Protected areas such as Tsavo (Kenya) andChobe (Botswana), and altered the long-termcourse of conservation in Africa.
It also decimated human populations and prevented human advancement
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Disturbance and historyDisturbance and history
Therefore, - ecosystems are always changing,- they do not return to the same state- long-term consequences
- e.g. Scotland- e.g. New Zealand
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LESSONS FOR SOCIETY: THE FUNCTION OF MIGRATION
Migration allows use of ephemeral resources on the plains and so larger populations than if they were resident. This rule applies to all migrations
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SAHEL
Traditional Humanmigrations in the Sahel follow rain
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Boreholes have been sunk in the Sahel since the 1960s topresent. Sedentary life style has resulted in overgrazing
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Photo A. de Vos 1975
.. and repeated famines. MALI FAMINE 1973
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MALI –
TheGreen Polygon1973demonstratesovergrazingnot drought
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The ranchboundary
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The role of Protected Areas
- The Green Polygon illustrates the need for baselines
- Protected Areas act as such ecological baselines to provide insight for human ecosystems
- BUT Ecosystems are continually evolving and do notreturn to where they began
- Protected areas will not stay as they are currently
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Take home messageConservation has to focus on ecosystems
- they are complex, have long time scales and multiple states
- they are subject to disturbance which can change state
- human disturbance can be monitored by reference toProtected Areas
- ecosystems are continually changing
Current protection strategy is not addressing this issue- we need to find a new way to accommodate change