Promoting Food Security following the 2010 Pakistan Floods and

Insights from South Asian Experience Paul Dorosh

International Food Policy Research Institute

Sohail J. Malik Innovative Development Strategies, Ltd.

IFPRI USAID Seminar Kathmandu, Nepal November , 2011

1

Plan of Presentation • The 2010 Pakistan Floods: Overview • Lessons from South Asia Experience

• Market and Trade Policies • Livelihood Support Programs and Welfare Transfers • Pakistan National Disaster Management Authorities

• Pakistan’s Flood Response • Wheat Markets and Policies • Public Institutions and Programs • Program Implementation through April 2011

• The 2011 Pakistan Floods • Concluding Observations

The 2010 Pakistan Floods

Overview

Impact of the Floods (UN Estimates)

• More than 18 million people affected (1/10th of total population)

• 1,980 deaths confirmed

• 50,000 square kilometres (km) in 78 out of a total of 141 districts

• 2.2 million hectares of standing crops destroyed • 0.5 million livestock lost

• 1.7 million homes and 10,000 schools damaged or

destroyed

Lessons from South Asia Experience

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The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh

The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh • From early July to the end of September 1998, floods

covered much of Bangladesh

• At their peak on 7 September, 1998, 51 percent of the country was under water.

• The floods caused 2.04 million tons of losses to rice production , equal to 17.9 percent of target national rice production for the first half of 1998/99.

• Yet, no reported deaths from starvation occurred after the flood and food markets were stable.

Bangladesh 1998: Private Sector Imports • As part of its price stabilization strategy, the

government of Bangladesh encouraged private sector imports through the elimination of a 2.5 percent import tax on rice and other measures.

• In response to market incentives, hundreds of private sector traders imported an estimated 2.42 million tons of rice from July 1998 to April 1999 (according to official data).

• Government net distribution in this period was 1.58 million tons, only 0.19 million tons more than originally planned.

Bangladesh Floods: Household Borrowing

• In order to cope with the loss of incomes from the floods, most poor and flood-exposed households borrowed heavily from private sector sources.

• Even fifteen months after the flood, household debts still averaged about 1.5 month’s average consumption for the 64.2% of flood-exposed households in the bottom 40% of the expenditure distribution who were in debt.

• To eliminate borrowing following the flood would have required a transfer of approximately $100 for each household.

• At the national level, total private borrowing by households may have reached $1.0 to $1.5 billion, equivalent to nearly one-fourth of total government expenditures in 1998–99, and about double of the combined annual loan disbursements of Grameen Bank and BRAC at that time.

South Asia Disaster Recovery Lessons: Incorporating Livelihood Strategies

• Social protection has to be prioritized in a disaster response so the most vulnerable groups are protected. – Awareness-raising is an important component to ensure

participation. • Encourage active participation of key stakeholders from a

multi-sector base as well as the community, in the decisions made for each program. – Activities, where possible, should be linked with government, local

enterprises, organizations and industries. • Interventions need to be tailored to target specific needs of

different groups • Enhance livelihood opportunities for people through

provision of temporary work schemes – debris clearance, construction, public awareness, project

management, assessments, etc.

Pakistan: Lessons from 2005 Earthquake Recovery

• All phases of the disaster response should be handled by the same institution

• All stakeholders should be included in the disaster response mechanism.

• Need to account for long-term, medium-term and short-term goals in the post-disaster responses and connect them together in one framework.

• Ensure participation of two key stakeholders: the government and the affected communities.

Pakistan’s Policy Response

to the 2010 Floods

Post-flood Wheat Policy • The August 2010 flood had no immediate effects on wheat

production, since wheat is grown from October to April.

• Pakistan’s national wheat stocks were at record high levels at the time of the flood • Very high procurement in previous two years due to high domestic

procurement and prices well above market prices • As much as 1 million tons of wheat stocks may have been lost in the

flood • Nonetheless, wheat stocks were still about 10 million tons, compared

to typical stock levels of about 5-6 million tons

• The recent rise in world wheat prices made private imports unprofitable

• Domestic wheat prices remained stable, given the recent good harvest and abundant private and public stocks

Pakistan: Initial and Estimated Peak Wheat Stocks* 1991-92 to 2010-11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1991

-92

1993

-94

1995

-96

1997

-98

1999

-00

2001

-02

2003

-04

2005

-06

2007

-08

2009

-10

(milli

on to

ns)

Initial Stocks Intial Stocks + Domestic Procurement

* Peak wheat stocks are estimated as end-April stocks plus May-June domestic procurement.

Flood Relief Plan

• The Pakistan Initial Floods Emergency Response Plan, launched on 11 August 2010, sought US$ 459 million to respond to the immediate relief needs of flood affected people

• The Pakistan Floods Relief and Early Recovery Response Plan, launched in November 2010 ($1.93 billion) – A revision of the Initial Plan, took into account fresh needs

assessments and an extended planning and budgeting horizon – Designed to support the Government of Pakistan in addressing

the residual relief needs for 6 months and early recovery needs of flood-affected families for 12 months up to August 2011

Post-Flood Recovery through January 2011 • 1.46 million flood-affected households had been processed by

the National Database and Registration Authority.

• Almost 900,000 households provided with emergency shelter.

• About 6 million people received food assistance in monthly rations (5 million starting in January), – over 385,000 metric tons of food was distributed

• 9.3 million people had essential medication needs covered

• Safe water provided to 4.7 million people through rehabilitated

water systems

Beneficiaries of a one-room shelter in Jacobabad Sindh

Women beneficiaries preparing animal feed provided by FAO in the flood-affected district of Shahdad Kot in Sindh

Citizen’s Damage Compensation Programme

• The Government of Pakistan initiated the Citizen’s Damage Compensation Programme (CDCP) in all provinces – This program aims to give an initial payment of Rs 20,000

(approx. USD 233) to 1.5 million affected families – The Programme was financed jointly by the federal and

provincial governments

• The enrolled families received a debit card (Watan Card) activated within 48 hours after NADRA completed identity checks of these beneficiaries • Recipients of cards obtained cash from designated payment

centres where ATM/POS machines were installed

Second Phase of CDCP

• The Government of Pakistan plans to extend the program through a second phase during which further instalments of Rs 40,000 would be made to flood victims

• The second phase will use housing damage as a proxy indictor for determination of households’ being affected by the floods

• The second phase of the CDCP is to be financed by the Federal Government and the development partners.

Seven months after the floods (April 2011)

• There are still areas covered with stagnant water in Sindh province, awaiting evaporation when the temperatures rise in the spring and summer

• 84 thousand people (3 percent of the original total) are still living in camps. • 75 per cent of these camp dwellers are in Sindh.

• In many cases, people continue to depend on emergency shelter after having returned to their areas of origin

April 2011:

Comparison: Pakistan Floods 2010 and 2011

The 2011 Floods Primarily Affected One Province

The CDCP Second Phase Validation Ongoing

• Initial Impressions are that:

• Significant Discrepancies in Reported Damage Lists Overall

• With very high (percentage) Discrepancies in Some

Districts and None in Others

Summary and Conclusions • Promoting competitive private trade can be an

effective way to stabilize food supply and prices (e.g. Bangladesh 1998) – This private sector trade can occur simultaneously with

government transfer programs from government stocks provided that government policy promotes private sector trade and is consistent and transparent

• Provision of rural credit or transfers may be needed to avoid declines in food consumption or accumulation of household debt – Major transfers through the household asset replacement

programs were implemented in Pakistan

Summary and Conclusions (2) • Major delays in funding and implementation have

plagued the response to the Pakistan 2010 floods – Weak and Unstable Economic and Political Conditions – Low level of International Humanitarian Response – Lack of Coordinated Effort – Governance Issues, including disconnects between federal

and regional governments, etc.

• A detailed evaluation of targeting and other

aspects of program effectiveness is now planned

References Dorosh, Paul A., Sohail J. Malik and Marika Krausova. 2010. “Promoting Food

Security following the 2010 Pakistan Floods: Insights from South Asian Experience ”, IFPRI Discussion Paper.

________ . 2011. “Rehabilitating agriculture and promoting food security following the 2010 Pakistan floods”, Pakistan Development Review.

del Ninno, Carlo, Paul A. Dorosh, Lisa C. Smith and Dilip Roy. 2001. The 1998

Floods in Bangladesh: Disaster Impacts, Household Coping Strategies and Response. International Food Policy Research Institute Research Report No. 122. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI. http://www.ifpri.org/publication/1998-floods-bangladesh

del Ninno, Carlo, Paul A. Dorosh and Lisa C. Smith. 2003. “Public Policy, Markets and Household Coping Strategies in Bangladesh: Avoiding a Food Security Crisis Following the 1998 Floods”. World Development. 31(7):1221-1238.

World Bank Independent Evaluation Group. 2010. Response to Pakistan’s

Floods: Evaluative Lessons and Opportunity. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTDIRGEN/Resources/ieg_pakistan_note.pdf