De in rapidly changing technologies. Prior to 1959 it did not exist. In its infancy it comprised computer service ~ureaux offering simply processing [acilities for clients who had no :omputer of their own, or needed extra Iime.

Now it has developed into a high value-added market and the bureaux have been joined by large computer asers (such as major manufacturing ~rms) who sell their in-house expertise, md by mainframe suppliers, who ;ometimes set up subsidiaries to handle ~usiness which they have traditionally ~voided.

The proliferation of consultancies, ;oftware houses, (supplying specially developed programmes), and equip- ment support services (dealing with :lata security, training and malnten- tnce) further diversifies what was previously a clear-cut sector. The :ommittee expects its 20% per annum growth in value to be maintained.

At the end of 1980 the estimated Iotal skilled workforce in computer mrvices was 31000, a figure higher than aormally assumed, as with users. The projected increase in coming years is tgain inadequate, and likely to provide 'the sector's greatest potential obstacle Io growth'. Mobility, though still high :ompared with other professions, is lower than in user firms.

Computer manufacture in the UK is dominated by large foreign multi° aationals, employing more than 60000, half of whom have engineering or :omputing skills. In spite of high recent :lemand growth in this sector (12% ~,early for mainframes, and more for :he burgeoning business of small :omputers and peripherals), the report :loes not see a serious effect on manpower growth, because of increasing productivity and declining ~=mpioyment in hardware relative to ;oftware engineering. The main ~roblems are likely to arise from its anfortunate position of having to :ompete for some of its labour require- ~ents with desperately understaffed Jser and service firms. Some computer xaanufacturers are already turning ~rders away.

The report later turns, with an almost audible grown, to the thorniest ~roblem of all - what are the prospects

for bridging the already wide and rapidly growing gap between the industry's manpower needs and the likely supply? The answer, revealed by a courageous foray into 'the jungle of British educational statistics', is not encouraging.

Quite apart from current education cut backs, the demand for trained computer personnel is up against an inexorable demographic process. The number of school leavers with O-levels peaked in 1980 and is already on a con- tinuous downward trend; those with A- levels will follow a similar pattern from 1982; and 21 year-olds (mostly gradu- ates) will start their rapid decline in the mid-1980s. As the products of the 'sixties 'baby-boom' pass into their first jobs, the computer industry cannot avoid the consequences of the market - its mounting demand for the increas- ingly scarce resource of educated labour.

So, the report concludes that the national stock of labour having computer-related skills, at more than 275000, 'is not nearly enough'. The immediate shortfall is put at 25000, and the blame comes down squarely on the supply side, through inadequate training. It is simply not the case that high labour turnover implies labour loss; in fact, there is a low incidence of computer staff abandoning their generally well-paid occupations.

The committee's recommendations include the now familiar exhortations to the government about the need for expanded training, blandishments to unions and employers about smoother new technology agreements, and NEDO is told to rethink its policies and found them on better data. The problem, however, is as likely to go away as the above-petitioned organiza- tions are to accept their respective advice. The report's understated summary of the outlook puts it well:

In forecasting (manpower) supply, the area of greatest certainty is the one which gives rise to the least optimism.

The prospects are not encouraging.

Kenneth D. Mac Taggart, Technology Policy Unit,

University of Aston, Birmingham, UK

Book reviews

Book notes THE ECONOMICS OF THE POSTAL SYSTEM (USA)

Alan Sorkin

D. C. Heath, Lexington, MA, 1980, 200 pp

The author, a Professor at the Univer- sity of Maryland, USA, paints an interesting picture of the US postal system. After a brief historical survey, he describes the current postal system, and examines problems of financing, costs and tariffs. He then examines social questions (unions etc) and considers current problems in the US postal service-- the national Bulk Mail System (NBMS), electronic mail, competition, etc. The final chapters are concerned with the Postal Rate Com- mission and postal legislation. The author draws conclusions from the main elements of his work and offers recommendations aimed at improving this essential service.

P.T.

LES MACHINES PARLANTES: PROSPECTIVE MONDIALE

Ministry of Industry Group on Innovation and Technology, Docu- mentation Fran@ais, 1980, 111 pp

The title of this work, Talking Machines: A Global Perspective, only gives a small idea of the contents of this lucid and accessible book. In fact, this is a 1980 study (carried out with the assistance of BIPE) on the current situation and the prospects for 1985 and 1990 for the automatic processing of speech. In the first section - on technology and existing mach ines - automatic speech recognition and automatic speech synthesis are considered. For both aspects the technology and principles, and existing machines are examined. The second part considers applications and markets - products and pricing, industrial aspects, and market con- siderations (by sectors, such as

TELECOMMUNICATIONS POLICY June 1981 159

Publications

industrial automation, office automa- tion, telematics, in-car uses, domestic uses, etc). A l though the world market is current ly very small, it could reach $784 mil l ion (in 1980 $) by 1985, and $4550 mill ion (1980 $) by 1990. The work is fairly short but well illustrated, and contains 21 annexes including a b ib l iography and glossary. It is worth reading by those who are interested in this aspect of technical progress and its consequences both on a world scale and in our everyday lives.

P.T.

Publications * Advanced Communications Satellites, by J.N. Sivo (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, OH, 1980, 19 pp NTIS N80-32608/5) The increase in demand for satellite com- munications services brought about short- ages in available transponder capacity, especially at C-band. Interest shifted to the Ku-band frequency and currently carriers are rapidly moving to secure orbital slots for future satellite development. Projections of communications service demands over the next decade indicate growth in voice, data, and video services such that saturation of both C-band and Ku-band will occur by 1990. Emphasis must and will shift to Ka- band (20/30 GHz) frequency for fixed- satellite service. Advanced technologies such as multibeam antennas coupled with on-board satellite switching to allow implementation in this band of very high capacity satellite systems will be applied to meet the demand. Satellite system concepts that are likely in the 1990s and are likely to bring a new dimension to satellite delivered communication service are presented. The NASA 30/20 GHz communications satellite system demonstration program is discussed with emphasis on the related technology development.

Communication Control in Computer Net- works, by Josef Puzman and Radoslav Porizek (John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1981,296 pp)

* NTIS documents listed in this section should be ordered by number to expedite delivery. The price of particular reports varies according to size, paper copy or microfiche, domestic order or overseas, delivery option chosen, etc. Address for information and ordering: National Technical Information Service, US Depart- ment of Commerce, Springfield, VA 22161, USA; or United Kingdom Service Centre, Microinfo Ltd, PO Box 3, Alton, Hants GU34 1EF, UK.

Electronic Communication: Technology and Impacts, edited by Madeline M. Henderson and Marcia J. MacNaughton (AAAS Selected Symposium 52, Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 1980, 173 pp) Examines current and expected states of electronic communications technology and considers the social impacts and policy issues arising from new technological developments. To be reviewed.

Fiber Optics Blueprints for the Future (Inter- national Communications and Energy, lnc, 96 Stock Farm Road, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA, 1981, 928 pp, $12 000.00) Deals with the 'common fabric' of com- puters, energy, defence and telecommunica- tions. Discusses the futures of: Japanese dominance over US and foreign markets; the Photonics Sputnik; a transatlantic fibre cable without repeaters; opto-electronic computers that outperform Josephson junc- tions; components and network designs that significantly decrease the costs of interac- tion cable television.

4th International Online Information Meet- ing (Learned Information Ltd, Oxford and Medford, NJ, 1980, 527 pp) Proceedings of the meeting held on 9-11 December 1980 in London.

Home Telecommunications in the 1980s (International Resource Development, Inc, 30 High Street, Norwalk, CT 06851, USA, 1981, 196 pp, $1285.00) Includes a detailed examination of the probable development of consumer tele- communications equipment technology, with an analysis of the probable progression towards the home terminal. Also considered are new opportunities for providing MTS- competitive transmission services, informa- tion services, and transactions services to customers.

The Human Side of Information Processing, edited by Niels Bjorn-Andersen (North- Holland, Amsterdam and New York, 1980, 229 pp) Proceedings of the Copenhagen Conference on Computer Impact, 25-27 October 1978.

Microelectronics at Work: Productivity and Jobs in the World Economy, by Colin Norman (Worldwatch Paper 39, World- watch Institute, Washington, DC, 1980, 64 PP)

Mindstorms - Children, Computers and Powerful Ideas, by Seymour Papert (Har- vester Press, Brighton, UK, 1981, 230 pp) A book about children and computers rather than computers and children.

Packet Data Communications 1981, (Future Systems Inc, 4 Professional Drive, Suite 141, Gaithersburg, MD 20760, USA, 1981) Includes: status and plans for public packet switching networks; packet switching technology; protocols and interfaces for

packet switching networks; satellite data networks; tariff information; cost compari- son; examples of applications; and future developments.

PTC 81 Proceedings, edited by Dan. J. Wedemeyer (Pacific Telecommunications Council, 1110 University Avenue, Suite 303, Honolulu, HI 96826, USA, 1981) Proceedings of the 1981 Pacific Telecom- munications Conference, held in Honolulu on 12-14 January 1981.

Regulated Industries and Public Enterprise, edited by Bridger M. Mitchell and Paul R. Kleindorfer (Lexington Books, Gower Publishing Co, Farnborough, UK, 1980, 291 pp) Public Enterprise and Regulation in Inter- national Perspective. The Design of Regu- latory Roles. Deregulation and Regulatory Reform of US Air-Transportation Policy. Conditions for Effective Franchise Bidding in the West German Electricity Sector. Belgian Price Regulation and Nonprice Competition. Pricing Policies of the US Postal Service. A Critical Appraisal of UK Policy for the Nationalized Industries. Labor-Management and Codetermination in Regulated Monopolies. Sustainability, Efficiency and Vertical Integration. Ramsey Pricing and Sustainability with Interdependent Demands. Consumer Choice and Nonprice Rationing in Public Utility Pricing. Industrial, Self-Generation of Electricity in a Public System. Evaluating Time-of-Day Electricity Rates for Resi- dential Customers.

Technology Transfer between East and West, by Eugene Zaleski and Heigard Wienhart (OECD, Paris, 1980, 436 pp) East-West Trade and Technology Transfer in Historical Perspective. Statistical Evalua- tion of Technology Transfer. The Forms of Technology Transfer. Eastern and Western Policies Toward Technology Transfer. The Influence of Technology Transfers on Eastern Economies. Effect of Economic Factors on East-West Technology Transfer. Effect of East-West Technology Transfer on Western Economies. Conclusion.

Wartime Reconfiguration of the Public Tele- phone Network, by Ralph Schmidt and John H. Cronin, Jr (BDM Corp, McLean, VA, 1980, 82 pp, NTIS AD-A089 721/5) This document presents the results of a preliminary investigation of the feasibility of adaptive reconfiguration as a means of using the surviving portions of the public telephone network in wartime. The effort assessed potential enhancement to sur- vivable communications, perhaps in a nu- clear degraded environment, by utilizing a wartime switching router. The major out- puts of this effort are a system description, a set of critical federal users, routing algo- rithms, a bibliography, and conclusions concerning overall feasibility. (Author)

160 TELECOMMUNICATIONS POLICY June 1981