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Leonard Evans President, Science Serving Society President-Emeritus, International Traffic Medicine...
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Transcript of Leonard Evans President, Science Serving Society President-Emeritus, International Traffic Medicine...
Leonard EvansPresident, Science Serving Society
President-Emeritus, International Traffic Medicine AssociationBloomfield Hills, Michigan
USA
Devoted to adding reason and knowledge to public policy
ScienceServingSociety.com
School of Transportation Science and EngineeringInternational Res. Inst. for Multidisciplinary Science
Beihang University, Beijing1 September 2015
Traffic safety: Key vehicle and driver behavior factors
1.2 million people killed each year on the world’s roads
Harm from traffic - almost incomprehensible magnitude
Injures vastly outnumber fatalities
Victims mainly healthy young people
Key is knowledge gained from science
What can be done to reduce this enormous harm?
A solid edifice of knowledge exists
Scientific literature since 1930s has papers on traffic safety
Is too often ignored – with tragic results
Bow of Titanic – 3.8 km under Atlantic Ocean. Photographed 2 Sept. 2000 by Leonard Evans
Scene from 2000 Chinese movie
The Road Home, (director Zhang Yimou)
Summarizes what science has taught about traffic safety
www.ScienceServingSociety.com
Captain Edward J. Smith27JAN1850–15APR1912
Safety lessons from sinking of the Titanic
Age when Titanic sailed
62 years 2.6 months Titanic leaving Belfast
2 April 1912
Titanic illustrates central distinction between:-
1. Crash Protection
Given crash occurs, to reduce consequent harm
2. Crash Avoidance
To prevent crash occurring
Did Titanic’s superior crash protection save 705 lives, or cause over 1500 deaths?
Did Titanic’s superior crash protection save 705 lives, or cause over 1500 deaths?
Early recognition of distinction between
1. Technology
2. How it is used – driver behavior
Now look at peer-reviewed technical literature
All previous anecdotal
Paper in Amercan Journal of Psychology
“More efficient brakes on an
automobile will not in themselves
make driving the automobile any
safer.”
A Theoretical Field-Analysis of
Automobile Driving, American
Journal of Psychology 1938
Claim that better brakes do not increase safety based on reason alone
But is it possible to address empirically?
Did not happen in
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
then opportunity occurred!
Dramatic advance in brake technology
Increases rollover risk by (39+16)%
Large numbers of GM popular vehicles:
1991 MY – NONE had ABS
1992 MY – ALL had ABS
Otherwise, no important differences
ABS (antilock brakes)
Engineering factors affecting survival in crashes
Biomechanics - the science of relationships between injuries and the mechanical forces that produce them:
Penetrating trauma
Blunt trauma
To reduce severity of blunt trauma – reduce force by reducing deceleration of body
Spread stopping over as much distance, and time, as feasible through
occupant protection devices
vehicle characteristics and design
Scientific study needs data
By far, most reliable data is for fatalities
Even though death just tip of iceberg in numbers, much attention is devoted to it
Fatal Accident Reporting SystemName changed
Feb. 1998
Census of all US traffic crashes in which anyone is killed on a public road
Run by US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
Data from 1 January 1975
Over 1.6 million fatalities documented through 2013
Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)
Occupant protection device effectiveness
Occupant protection device Occupant Effectiveness in
preventing fatalities
Airbag plus lap/shoulder belt Car driver (47 4)%
Lap/shoulder belt Car driver ( 42 4)%
Airbag only Car driver (13 4)%
Lap belt Rear-seat passenger (18 9)%
Helmet Motorcycle riders (28 8)%
Occupant protection device effectiveness
Occupant protection device Occupant Effectiveness in
preventing fatalities
Airbag plus lap/shoulder belt Car driver (47 4)%
Lap/shoulder belt Car driver ( 42 4)%
Airbag only Car driver (13 4)%
Lap belt Rear-seat passenger (18 9)%
Helmet Motorcycle riders (28 8)%
Occupant protection device effectiveness
Occupant protection device Occupant Effectiveness in
preventing fatalities
Airbag plus lap/shoulder belt Car driver (47 4)%
Lap/shoulder belt Car driver ( 42 4)%
Airbag only Car driver (13 4)%
Lap belt Rear-seat passenger (18 9)%
Helmet Motorcycle riders (28 8)%
Occupant protection device effectiveness
Occupant protection device Occupant Effectiveness in
preventing fatalities
Airbag plus lap/shoulder belt Car driver (47 4)%
Lap/shoulder belt Car driver ( 42 4)%
Airbag only Car driver (13 4)%
Lap belt Rear-seat passenger (18 9)%
Helmet Motorcycle riders (28 8)%
Occupant protection device effectiveness
Occupant protection device Occupant Effectiveness in
preventing fatalities
Airbag plus lap/shoulder belt Car driver (47 4)%
Lap/shoulder belt Car driver ( 42 4)%
Airbag only Car driver (13 4)%
Lap belt Rear-seat passenger (18 9)%
Helmet Motorcycle riders (28 8)%
The vehicle factor having largest influence on occupant risk is:
Vehicle mass (weight) and size
Large Truck 1 2.7
Large Truck
Medium Truck
Relative Driver Fatality Risk in One Vehicle Crashing into Another Vehicle
Large Truck 1 2.7 16 18
Large Truck
Medium Truck
VanPickup
Relative Driver Fatality Risk in One Vehicle Crashing into Another Vehicle
Large Truck 1 2.7 16 18 22 29 44
Large Truck
Medium Truck
Heavy Car
Medium Car
Light Car
VanPickup
Relative Driver Fatality Risk in One Vehicle Crashing into Another Vehicle
Large Truck 1 2.7 16 18 22 29 44 1997 -
Large Truck
Medium Truck
Heavy Car
Medium Car
Light Car
VanPickup
Motorcycle
Moped
Relative Driver Fatality Risk in One Vehicle Crashing into Another Vehicle
Large Truck
Medium Truck
1 2.7 16 18 22 29 44 1997 -
Large Truck
Medium Truck
Heavy Car
Medium Car
Light Car
VanPickup
Motorcycle
Moped
1 17 10 12 18 34 605 -
Relative Driver Fatality Risk in One Vehicle Crashing into Another Vehicle
Large Truck
Medium Truck
Van
Pickup
1 2.7 16 18 22 29 44 1997 -
Large Truck
Medium Truck
Heavy Car
Medium Car
Light Car
VanPickup
Motorcycle
Moped
1 17 10 12 18 34 605 -
1 1.3 1.7 3.3 9.3 579 -
1 1.3 2.7 7.1 283 253
Relative Driver Fatality Risk in One Vehicle Crashing into Another Vehicle
Large Truck
Medium Truck
Heavy Car
Medium Car
Light Car
Van
Pickup
1 2.7 16 18 22 29 44 1997 -
Large Truck
Medium Truck
Heavy Car
Medium Car
Light Car
VanPickup
Motorcycle
Moped
1 17 10 12 18 34 605 -
1 1.3 1.7 3.3 9.3 579 -
1 1.3 2.7 7.1 283 253
1 2.4 7.7 153 205
1 3.1 85 202
1 42 139
Relative Driver Fatality Risk in One Vehicle Crashing into Another Vehicle
Large Truck
Medium Truck
Heavy Car
Medium Car
Light Car
Van
Pickup
Motorcycle
Moped
1 2.7 16 18 22 29 44 1997 -
Large Truck
Medium Truck
Heavy Car
Medium Car
Light Car
VanPickup
Motorcycle
Moped
1 17 10 12 18 34 605 -
1 1.3 1.7 3.3 9.3 579 -
1 1.3 2.7 7.1 283 253
1 2.4 7.7 153 205
1 3.1 85 202
1 42 139
1 2.8
1
Relative Driver Fatality Risk in One Vehicle Crashing into Another Vehicle
How are R and μ related?
Two key measures:
1. mass ratio, μ = mass of car2
mass of car1
=m2
m1
car2mass m2
car1mass m1
R = probability of driver fatality in car1
probability of driver fatality in car2
2. driver fatality risk ratio, R,
1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.21
2
3
45
7
10
20
R =
15,356 unbelted drivers killed in 13,162 front-impact two car-crashes
R = 3.58
FARS 1975-1998
dri
ve
r fa
tali
tie
s i
n l
igh
ter
ca
rd
riv
er
fata
liti
es
in
he
av
ier
ca
r
mass of heavier carmass of lighter car
1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.21
2
3
45
7
10
20
R =
15,356 unbelted drivers killed in 13,162 front-impact two car-crashes
R = 3.58
FARS 1975-1998
dri
ve
r fa
tali
tie
s i
n l
igh
ter
ca
rd
riv
er
fata
liti
es
in
he
av
ier
ca
r
mass of heavier carmass of lighter car
v of 900 kg car 6% greater than v of 1800 kg car
Risk in 900 kg car 30% greater than risk in 1800 kg lb car due to 6% higher v
900 kg car14,000 kg truck
14,000 kg truck1800 kg car
risk ratio = 44
risk ratio = 22
What is the casual role of mass and size?
Am I safer if I put bricks in my trunk?
Does NOT answer
How does change in RELATIVE risk affect each driver individually?
If cars differ only in mass, R = μu
If cars differ in another attribute, say one carries additional cargo
R = probability of accompanied driver fatality in car1
probability of lone driver fatality in car2 R = A μu
A estimates effect passenger’s presence has on driver risk when car masses are the same
car2 car1
driver +passenger
lone driver
0.5 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.5 2
0.1
0.2
0.5
1
2
5
10
R = 0.855 3.36
3692 unbelted drivers killed in 3118 front-impact two-car crashes
FARS 1975-1998
R =
dri
ve
r fa
tali
tie
s i
n c
ar
wit
h p
as
se
ng
er
dri
ve
r fa
tali
tie
s i
n c
ar
wit
h d
riv
er
on
ly
mass of car with passengermass of car with driver only
CONCLUSION
Addition of passenger changes driver fatality ratio by
-(14.5 ± 2.3)%
BUT
We do not know how much of this change is a risk reduction to the accompanied driver and a risk increase to the lone driver
To answer, we model process
r1,2 = xm2
m1 ( )
1.79
net effect = intrinsic size x intrinsic mass
L1 + L2
2.452.45
c
A picture is worth
100 equations
Car and Driver, April 1998
When it comes to vehicle safety, putting on weight is good for your health
Driver performance
Driver behavior
r
acin
g-d
rive
r ra
te
co
mp
aris
on
-dri
ver
rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0Texas
Racing drivers MORE occurrencesthan comparison drivers
Racing drivers FEWER occurrencesthan comparison drivers
Racing drivers same as comparison drivers
rac
ing
-dri
ver
rate
com
par
iso
n-d
rive
r ra
te
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0Texas
Racing drivers MORE occurrencesthan comparison drivers
Racing drivers FEWER occurrencesthan comparison drivers
Racing drivers same as comparison drivers
speeding violations
r
acin
g-d
rive
r ra
te
co
mp
aris
on
-dri
ver
rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0Texas
Racing drivers MORE occurrencesthan comparison drivers
Racing drivers FEWER occurrencesthan comparison drivers
Racing drivers same as comparison drivers
speeding violations
r
acin
g-d
rive
r ra
te
co
mp
aris
on
-dri
ver
rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0Texas
speeding violations REPORTED CRASHES
r
acin
g-d
rive
r ra
te
co
mp
aris
on
-dri
ver
rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0Texas
speeding violations REPORTED CRASHES
r
acin
g-d
rive
r ra
te
co
mp
aris
on
-dri
ver
rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0Texas
speeding violations REPORTED CRASHES
r
acin
g-d
rive
r ra
te
co
mp
aris
on
-dri
ver
rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0New York
Texas
speeding violations REPORTED CRASHES
r
acin
g-d
rive
r ra
te
co
mp
aris
on
-dri
ver
rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0New York
Texas
speeding violations REPORTED CRASHES
r
acin
g-d
rive
r ra
te
co
mp
aris
on
-dri
ver
rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Florida
New York
Texas
speeding violations REPORTED CRASHES
r
acin
g-d
rive
r ra
te
co
mp
aris
on
-dri
ver
rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Florida
New York
Texas
Drivers with
Best visual acuity
Fastest reaction times
Most knowledge/interest in vehicles
Driver Performance
-- have highest crash rates!
(What the driver can do)
What is crucial is not what the driver can do -- (Driver Performance)
Driver Behavior
but
What the driver does do
rela
tive
cra
sh r
isk
BAC, %0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
1
10
100Grand Rapids study
rela
tive
cra
sh r
isk
BAC, %0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
1
10
100Grand Rapids study
Legal limit inall US States
rela
tive
cra
sh r
isk
BAC, %0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
1
10
100Grand Rapids study
Legal limit inall US States
Named for town in MichiganPerformed by Robert Borkenstein
and colleagues
1962-1963
casu
alty
-cra
sh r
isk
at in
dic
ated
sp
eed
risk
at
60 k
m/h
sp
eed
lim
it
travel speed, km/h60 65 70 75 80 85
1
10
100urban roads in
Adelaide, Australia
60
U. of Adelaide data
casu
alty
-cra
sh r
isk
at in
dic
ated
sp
eed
risk
at
60 k
m/h
sp
eed
lim
it
travel speed, km/h60 65 70 75 80 85
1
10
100urban roads in
Adelaide, Australia
60
U. of Adelaide data
casu
alty
-cra
sh r
isk
at in
dic
ated
sp
eed
risk
at
60 k
m/h
sp
eed
lim
it
travel speed, km/h60 65 70 75 80 85
1
10
100urban roads in
Adelaide, Australia
60
U. of Adelaide data
casu
alty
-cra
sh r
isk
at in
dic
ated
sp
eed
risk
at
60 k
m/h
sp
eed
lim
it
travel speed, km/h60 65 70 75 80 85
1
10
100urban roads in
Adelaide, Australia
60
U. of Adelaide data
casu
alty
-cra
sh r
isk
at in
dic
ated
sp
eed
risk
at
60 k
m/h
sp
eed
lim
it
travel speed, km/h60 65 70 75 80 85
1
10
100urban roads in
Adelaide, Australia
60
U. of Adelaide data
casu
alty
-cra
sh r
isk
at in
dic
ated
sp
eed
risk
at
60 k
m/h
sp
eed
lim
it
travel speed, km/h60 65 70 75 80 85
1
10
100urban roads in
Adelaide, Australia
60
U. of Adelaide data
Effects of speed
1. Risk of crashing increases with increasing travel speed
2. If crash occurs, risk of injury increases with increasing speed
3. If injury occurs, risk that it is fatal increases with travel speed
1% increase in travel speed increases the risk of a fatal crash by at least 4%
Speed
Belt wearing
Drunk driving
Benefits only relevant occupant
Affects all road usersAffects all road users, although victim is usually the drunk driver (plus similarly drunk passengers)
Affects ALL road users – is central
International comparisons offer insights into best ways to reduce harm in traffic
US
A t
raff
ic f
atal
itie
s/ye
ar (
tho
usa
nd
s)
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
US
A t
raff
ic f
atal
itie
s/ye
ar (
tho
usa
nd
s)
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Because fatalities reach a maximum number, we can define a simple ratio:
Dimensionless (no units) No arbitrary assumptions Depends ONLY on fatalities
Fatalities in a given yearMaximum yearly fatalities
Plot* how this ratio varies in time after maximum is reached
-------------*on logarithm scale, and x100 to express as %
US
A t
raff
ic f
atal
itie
s/ye
ar (
tho
usa
nd
s)
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USA
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USA
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
2013 value is 40%below 1972 maximum
(32,719 down from 54,589)
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USA
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USAGB
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USACanada
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USAAustralia
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USAItaly
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USASwitzerland
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USAFrance
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USAJapan
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USAGermany
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USASweden
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USANetherlands
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USAAustria
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USADenmark
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USAGBCanadaAustraliaItalySwitzerlandFranceJapanGermanySwedenNetherlandsAustriaDenmark
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
Finland GreeceBelgium PortugalCzech Rep.HungaryIsraelNorway IrelandNew Zealand
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaItalySpainPolandS. KoreaSwitzerlandFranceJapanGermanySwedenNetherlandsAustriaDenmark
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
Finland GreeceBelgium PortugalCzech Rep.HungaryIsraelNorway IrelandNew Zealand
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaItalySpainPolandS. KoreaSwitzerlandFranceJapanGermanySwedenNetherlandsAustriaDenmark
years since reaching MAXIMUM0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
annu
al tr
affic
dea
ths
rela
tive
to M
AX
valu
e
15
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
USANetherlands
data thru 2013
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
USAGBCanadaAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerlandFinland GermanySpainS. KoreaSwedenFranceJapanItalyPolandGreeceBelgium Czech Republic HungaryAustriaIsraelDenmarkNorway IrelandNew ZealandPortugal
This is 83.7% below The Netherlands’ all time high of 3,506 in 1972
The Netherlands had 570 traffic deaths in 2013
If US total had fallen by 83.7% from its high, US total in 2013 would be 8,875
(instead of 32,719 observed)
More than 20,000 additional Americans are killed annually because US fails to match decline in Netherlands (+ 10 other countries)
USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:
Vehicle factors are important
USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:
Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:
Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
Roadway factors are important
USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:
Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors
USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:
Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors
USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:
Driver performance factors are importantctors
Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors
USA disaster lies in ignoring basic scientific finding - which is:
Driver performance factors are important, but less important than driver behavior factorsfactors
Predictions
Never make predictions —
especially about the future
Never make predictions
15 May 2015
Are already safer than human-controlled cars
Cannot become universal for many decades
System consisting exclusively of self-driving cars can approach perfect safety
This study, in agreement with earlier research, implies that there are over 200,000 annual traffic deaths in China.
How can this number be reduced?
Two recommendations
Conclusion
1 Create data-collecting agency
USA data set FARS is good model
2 Create traffic-safety research organization
Goal - accuracy and completeness
Supported by government, but largely independent of government
Best model is SWOV in the Netherlands
Make solicited and unsolicited science-based recommendations
Evaluate safety programs (implementation and evaluation must be kept separate)
Goal – highest quality objective scientific research
40+ years of ongoing improvement Free, comprehensive, and simple on web
Concluding comments
Traffic causes enormous numbers of injuries and deaths
Traffic-safety science can sharply reduced these numbers
Reliable data
“Disinterested” quality analysis
This requires
Summarizes what science has taught about traffic safety
www.ScienceServingSociety.com