Leonam dos Santos Guimarães - las-ans.org.br€¦ · EXPANSION POST-2030 • Mix: natural gas...
Transcript of Leonam dos Santos Guimarães - las-ans.org.br€¦ · EXPANSION POST-2030 • Mix: natural gas...
Leonam dos Santos Guimarães
FLEET AGING
60 NPPS being built in 15 countries
ANGRA 3
2009 - 2016: 46 new connections to the grid
YANGJIANG-4 08 Jan, 2017
GENERATION CHANGE: II -> III -> III+ -> IV
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EMERGENT COUTRIES
Brazil: 2.400 kwh/y per inhabitant
Portugal: 4.800
China: 1.900
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: Boosting prosperity is the way to care for our planet
CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE EFFECT GASSES EMISSION CONTROL
Source: Derived from IPCC and IEA
Decarbonising the power sector is key to meet the 2°C target Beyond uncertainties of future developments, three fundamental
actions need to be undertaken simultaneously:
Massive deployment of all low carbon source of electricity: -renewables, nuclear, CCS, switch from coal to gas transitionally
Improve efficiency of power plants
Apply stringent EE measures to moderate electricity demand 32%
55%
85%
70 EJ
90 EJ
110 EJ
2012 2030 2050
Global electricity demand in
2050: +60% relative to 2012
Share of low carbon electricity in
2050: 2.7 times 2012 level
Only by 2030, the transition in line with the 2°C target requires a threefold increase in clean energy investments more than $ 1 000 billion on average annually
including $ 81 billion on nuclear
CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE EFFECT GASSES EMISSION CONTROL
Manaus
Brasília
São Paulo Itaipu
Porto Alegre
Fortaleza
Salvador
Rio de Janeiro
Belo
Horizonte
Recife
Angra
4.000 km
HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION INTERCONNECTED NATIONAL SYSTEM:
CONTINENTAL DIMMENSIONS – HYDRO DOMINANCE
HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION
• the expansion of a large interconnected power
system, with significant predominance of
hydro renewable primary source requires an
increasing thermal contribution due to:
• gradual exhaustion of the economic and
environmentally viable hydro potential
• loss of self-regulation capacity due to lower
water storage capacity in the reservoirs
related to the system load growth.
HYDRO POTENTIAL TECHNICAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE
150/180 GW from 260 GW (100 GW already used)
Hidro
EXPANSION POST-2030
• Mix: natural gas (depending on the amount and cost of pre-salt), coal (depending on the
viability of CCS and clean coal) and nuclear (public acceptance)
• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar) and expansion of energy efficiency programs
(increasing marginal expansion costs) will be an essential supplement
UNIQUE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES OF
NEW RENEWABLES IN BRAZIL:
• Wind – Solar match
• Wind – Hydro match
• Energy storage in reservoirs
• Saving water and
• Enhancing hydroelectric load
following and self-regulation
(long term) capabilities
HYDRO FOSSILE Gas
Coal
Oil
FISSILE Nuclear
OTHER RENEWABLES Biomass
Wind
Solar
NUCLEAR IN BRAZIL: TODAY
ANGRA 2 PWR
Power: 1.350 MW
Technology: Siemens/KWU
Operation start: Jan/2001
ANGRA 1 PWR
Power: 657 MW
Technology: Westinghouse
Operation start: Jan/1985
NUCLEAR IN BRAZIL: TOMORROW
ANGRA 2 PWR
Power: 1.405 MW
Technology: AREVA
Operation start: Jan/2022
NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS
2) Southeast 2.000 MW
1) Northeast 2.000 MW
EPRI SITTING CRITERIA
Geographic Information Systems
National Energy Plan 2030
NUCLEAR IN BRAZIL: FUTURE
NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS
Roadmap
Site Data Levantamento de campo
Outros dados
PPE Plant Parameter Envelope
2017-2018
ESP
Early Site Permit
Environmental and Nuclear site
licensing independent of vendor
Vendor Qualification
Brazilian Utility Requirement
BUR
2019-2020
PPA
Power Purchase Agreement
Definition and Decison to Build
.
2021 - 2022
Site Selection Which Sites will be studied in
detail
2014 - 2017
RFI
Request for Information
Request as per IAEA and NEI guides
Additional data with technical details
Siti
ng
Tech
no
logy
AUCTION
Licensing
Start
BUSINESS MODEL
NUCLEAR POTENCIAL
ATLAS
Feasibility Soc-Eco Impacts
CURRENT ACTIVITIES
• Plant Parameter Envelope
– RFIs to suppliers
– Early Site Permit Report
• Brazilian Utility
Requirements
– URD/EUR Model
• Business Model
– Public-Private Partnership
• Economic and Financial
Feasibility
• Social and Economic
Impacts
NUCLEAR IN BRAZIL: FUTURE
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
INSPIRED BY
TVA (EUA)
Pesquisa recente no BRASIL: Senado Federal ABR/2015 PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE
BUILDING NEW NUCLEAR THE CHALLENGES AHEAD
Public attitudes • Government leadership
• Public opinion at the national level
• Local level opinion
• Fukushima
• Building public support
• Trust, understanding of risk, and
risk governance
• Community benefit
Technology Selection • In operation x construction x design
• FOAK x NOAK
• Passive x Active Safety
Financing new nuclear • Where will the money come from?
• Barriers to raising finance
• Alternative approaches
Supply chain and skills • Potential for bottlenecks and delays
• Opportunities for Brazilian businesses
• Skills
Business Model • Market insertion (commercialization)
• Ownership of nuclear power stations
• State x Private
• National x Foreigner
Country M# PIBp/#
tCO2/#
(%)
GW
TWh kWh/#
47 8900
90%
1.4
1150 53
14
15 7600
93%
2.1
1250 18
5
29 9200
80%
1.5
1300 37
9
10 4500
70%
1.5
650 6
2
16 18000
99%
6.0
3900 62
17
29 11350
99%
5.4
3400 98
28
197 10300
98%
2.1
2500 480
114
7 5300
94%
0.8
1300 8
9
3 13300
97%
2.3
2900 10
3
41 15500
95%
4.5
3050 121
33
109 13400
93%
4.0
2300 250
62
11 5900
86%
2.5
1350 15
6
590 10400
91%
2.7
2150 1250
320
Different economic, energy and social realities
LATIN AMERICA CONTEXT
NUCLEAR IN LATIN AMERICA: MEXICO
One NPP: Laguna Verde Veracruz State Operator: Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) Two Units GE BWR-5 reactors 4% installed capacity
≈ 1600 MWe (after the uprate)
NUCLEAR IN LATIN AMERICA: ARGENTINA
NPP Atucha I
1974
PHWR (Siemens)
357 MWe
NPP Embalse
1984
PTHWR (Candu)
648 MWe
Co-60 production
(3rd in world)
NPP Atucha II
2015
PHWR (Siemens)
745 MWe
LATIN AMERICA ENERGY SCENARIOS
LATIN AMERICA ENERGY SCENARIOS
LATIN AMERICA ENERGY SCENARIOS
“Nuclear remains very limited in LAC region due to
lack of institutional capacity and high capital costs”
LATIN AMERICA NUCLEAR ENERGY SCENARIOS
108 92
60
112.1 118
140 157
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
North America
5 7 13 4.8 6 13
55
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Latin America
99
63
27
113.7 112 112 121
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Western Europe
1.9 1.9 7 1.9 1.9 6.5
38
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Africa
12 25.9
48
6.9 17.4
43.8
94
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Middle East & South Asia
98.7
131.8 149
87.1
122.9
219
355
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Far East
55 64 63
49.7 63
94
126
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Eastern Europe
0 5 4 18
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
South East Asia & the Pacific
Current Capacity
Low Estimate
High Estimate
Leonam Guimarães