Legislative Research Reports

Legislative Research ReportsAuthor(s): Sunil AhujaSource: Legislative Studies Quarterly, Vol. 29, No. 4 (Nov., 2004), pp. 631-640Published by: Comparative Legislative Research CenterStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3598595 .

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Edited by SUNIL AHUJA

Youngstown State University

Legislative Research Reports LEGISLATIVE REPRESENTATION

"Representation in Congressional Campaigns: Evidence for Discounting/Directional Voting in U.S. Senate Elections." James Adams (University of California, Santa Barbara), Benjamin G. Bishin (University of Miami), and Jay K. Dow (University of Missouri). Journal of Politics 66:2 (2004), pp. 348-73.

Several recent studies suggest that voters may prefer candidates who propose policies that are similar to, but more extreme than, the voters' sincere policy preferences. This may arise either because voters vote directionally based on the direction and intensity of candidates' proposals or, alternatively, because voters recognize that elected officials face obstacles to implementing their policy agenda and therefore discount the candidates' policy promises. Using data from the pooled Senate Election Study, the authors evaluate the discounting/directional hypothesis versus the alternative proximity hypothesis by conducting individual-level and aggregate-level analyses of voting in 95 Senate races held in 1988-90- 92. The results support the discounting/directional hypothesis, that voters reward candidates when they present distinctly noncentrist positions on the side of the issue (liberal or conservative) favored by their constituency. These findings have important implications for understanding voting behavior, policy representation, and candidate strategies in Senate elections.

"Measuring Constituency Ideology in U.S. House Districts. A Top- Down Simulation Approach." Phillip J. Ardoin (Appalachian State University) and James C. Garand (Louisiana State University). Journal of Politics 65.4 (2003), pp. 1165-89.

One of the most intractable problems associated with studying representation in the U.S. House of Representatives involves the measurement of district-level constituency opinion. In measuring constituency opinion in House districts, scholars have relied on a number of alternative approaches, including the use of demographic variables, small-sample estimates of public opinion, presidential election results,

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Legislative Research Reports

referenda data, and "bottom-up" simulated opinion. In this article, the authors develop an innovative "top-down" simulation of House district opinion that provides more reliable and valid measures of House district ideology. The authors model state-level ideology as a function of various demographic and political variables found at both the state and House district levels, and then use the estimates from the state-level model to generate predicted ideology scores for each House district during the 1980s and 1990s. These findings suggest that the top-down simulated measure is a valid indicator of House district ideology that can be used in a number of research venues.

"Minority Representation, Empowerment, and Participation." Susan A. Banducci (Texas Tech University and University of Twente, The Netherlands), Todd Donovan (Western Washington University), and Jeffrey A. Karp (Texas Tech University and University of Twente, The Netherlands). Journal of Politics 66.2 (2004), pp. 534-56.

According to the minority empowerment thesis, minority representation strengthens representational links, fosters more positive attitudes toward government, and encourages political participation. The authors examine this theory from a cross-national perspective, making use of surveys that sampled minorities in the United States and New Zealand. Both countries incorporate structures into their electoral systems that make it possible for minority groups to elect representatives of their choice. The authors find that in both countries descriptive representation matters: it increases knowledge about and contact with representatives in the U.S. and leads to more positive evaluations of governmental responsiveness and increased electoral participation in New Zealand. These findings have broad implications for debates about minority representation.

"Constituency Building in Multimember Districts. Collusion or Conflict?" Brian F Crisp and Scott W Desposato (University of Arizona). Journal of Politics 66.'1 (2004), pp. 136-56.

The vast majority of what we know about building prospective electoral constituencies is confined to single-member district systems. How- ever, most legislators are elected in multimember districts. Given that multiple incumbents represent the same voters, how do legislators decide who they should target as prospective constituents? In this article, the authors build a general model of this decision and test it with travel data for 100 legislators elected in a single, nationwide district. It is found that incumbents protect their existing supporters and avoid bailiwicks dominated by others. The authors conclude by deducing hypotheses about party system effects on incumbents' decision making and the level of electoral conflict.

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"Politics of Presence? Congresswomen and Symbolic Representa- tion." Jennifer L. Lawless (Brown University). Political Research Quarterly 57:1 (2004), pp. 81-99.

Gender politics literature stresses the symbolic importance of electing more women to high-level political office. Despite references to the heightened legitimacy that women in politics bring to the political process, and the manner in which they affect constituents' political attitudes and behavior, little empirical evidence exists regarding the actual benefits of symbolic representation. Using pooled National Elec- tion Study data from 1980 to 1998, the author attempts to fill a void in the literature, exploring whether the presence of women officeholders affects constituents' evaluations of their members of Congress, levels of political efficacy and trust in government, and propensity to participate politically. After controlling for party congruence between the repre- sentative and his or her constituent, the author uncovers little evidence of the independent symbolic effects scholars typically ascribe to women's presence in Congress. Women represented by women tend to offer more positive evaluations of their members of Congress, but this difference does not consistently translate into political attitudes or behavior. The findings represent an initial attempt to use available survey data to explore the extent to which symbolic representation indepen- dently affects citizens' political attitudes and engagement.

LEGISLA TIVE ELECTIONS

"Freshman Republicans and the 1996 Election. The Influence of Congressional Seniority on Voting for the House." Richard Born (Vassar College). American Politics Research 32:2 (2004), pp. 142-69.

Freshman House Republicans running for reelection in 1996 out- performed predictions ofvulnerability that were based upon their conservative roll-call records and reputed lack of attentiveness to traditional constituency concerns. In this study, the author finds that perceptions of these freshmen's ideology and ability to keep in touch with constituents were not, in fact, out of line with analogous perceptions of veterans in 1996 or of freshmen or veterans in other elections. Members of the class of 1994 did stand out, however, in how the determinants of voting behavior in their races compared with the determinants in races of these other groups. Constituent evaluations of the job performance of Congress were closely linked to ballot choice, whereas ideological proximity to the member made no difference. Thus, it seems that the Republican freshmen succeeded in shifting the 1996 reelection battle to electorally favorable terrain, because Congress' evaluations that year had rebounded from the low levels existing earlier in the 1990s.

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"Candidate Positioning in U.S. Congressional Elections." Barry C. Burden (Harvard University). British Journal of Political Science 34.2 (2004), pp. 211-27.

Theory suggests that three factors (the importance of ideology to primary voters, costly movement due to candidate reputations, and lack of competition) contribute to candidate divergence in U.S. congressional elections. These predictions are analyzed with new data from a 2000 mail survey that asked congressional candidates to place them- selves on a left-right ideological scale. The data reveal that candidates often diverge, but that the degree of candidate polarization is variable and may be explained by factors in the theory. Candidates with firm public reputations, those who face weak general election competition, and those who experience stiff primary competition are all more likely to deviate from the median voter's position. Perhaps more importantly, the locations that candidates adopt have clear effects on their vote shares.

"The Redistricting Cycle and Strategic Candidate Decisions in U.S. House Races. " Marc J. Hetherington (Bowdoin College), Bruce A. Larson (Fairleigh Dickinson University), and Suzanne Globetti (Bowdoin College). Journal of Politics 65:4 (2003), pp. 1221-34.

The authors examine the impact of the 1 0-year redistricting cycle on strategic candidate behavior. First, they provide evidence that strategic candidate behavior is a function of an election's temporal proximity to a redistricting year, finding that quality challengers are less likely to emerge as the redistricting cycle progresses. Next, the authors show that strategic candidates interpret national and local political conditions through the lens of time. Specifically, national political conditions greatly encourage quality challengers early in the redistricting cycle but play a much-reduced role later. In addition, incumbents who demonstrate moderate electoral vulnerability in the prior election are more likely to face quality challengers toward the beginning of the redistricting cycle than the end.

"The Impact of Political Interests in the 1994 and 1996 Congres- sional Elections: The Role of the National Rifle Association." Christopher Kenny (Louisiana State University), Michael McBurnett (RBC Centura Bank), and David Bordua (University of Illinois). British Journal of Political Science 34.2 (2004), pp. 331-44.

This article explores the role of organized interests in congressional elections by examining the influence of the National Rifle Asso- ciation (NRA) in contested House races in 1994 and 1996. Most research on the electoral impact of organized interests reports that

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groups have a negligible impact on the outcome. Yet, anecdotal evidence regarding NRA influence abounds, particularly in 1994. The authors construct an aggregate model of congressional vote share that allows systematic analysis of the electoral impact of the NRA in 1994 and 1996 House races. Unlike previous research of this sort, the authors provide evidence that the NRA can have a statistically discernible effect on election outcomes, but not in all elections and for all candidates. The NRA endorsement was particularly helpful to Republican challengers in 1994 (and to some extent Republican incumbents), but much less helpful to Democrats. These effects are much reduced in 1996 for all candidates. Likewise, having lots of NRA members in the district helped Republican challengers the most (in 1994) and Democrats not at all. Finally, reasons as to why the NRA was able to amplify but not mitigate the party trend, as well as individual-level mechanisms that might produce an endorsement effect, are discussed.

"Incumbent Contributions to the Congressional Campaign Com- mittees, 1990-2000." Bruce A. Larson (Fairleigh Dickinson University). Political Research Quarterly 57:1 (2004), pp. 155-61.

House incumbents now regularly transfer significant sums of campaign money from their reelection accounts to the party campaign committees. This article conducts the first comprehensive exploration of this activity. After briefly reviewing the federal regulations that govern member contributions to the campaign committees, the author presents data for the 1989-1990 through 1999-2000 election cycles that illus- trate the steep rise in these contributions. The author then tests several hypotheses about members' willingness to support their parties finan- cially. Findings show that a member's leadership status in the House and ability to raise "surplus" campaign dollars are the two most consistent determinants of his or her financial support for the party campaign committees.

"Contestation versus Replacement: Republican Party Gains in Southern State Legislative Elections." David L. Leal (University of Texas at Austin), Frederick M Hess (American Enterprise Insti- tute), and Syed A. Ali (State University of New York at Buffalo). Politics & Policy 31:4 (2003), pp. 648-70.

This study tests two theories of how support for Republican candidates has increased in Southern state legislative elections between 1968 and 1988. The first, called the rising tide hypothesis, asks how much of the Republican gains were due to a growing number of Southern Republican voters and, therefore, to growing support for

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Republican candidates over Democratic incumbents in general elections. The second, the replacement hypothesis, theorizes that incumbent Democrats receive consistently minor competition during their careers, yet Republican open-seat candidates do increasingly well after Demo- cratic incumbents retire. The data consists of an ICPSR dataset of state legislative elections from 1968 to 1988 in Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. The results show that while both dynamics are at work, the replacement effect is more than three times larger than the rising tide effect.

"The Prospects-Based Dynamics of the House Candidacy Decision." David W Romero (University of Texas at San Antonio). American Politics Research 32:2 (2004), pp. 119-41.

Strategic politicians thesis studies examine the candidacy phenomenon in general and primary elections, typically testing the influence electoral prospects have on the candidacy decision (indirectly in general elections, directly in primary elections). However, because the candidacy phenomena are different in the two arenas, they offer varying opportunities for theory development. Primary elections, where the phenomena are candidacy decisions, offer the richer laboratory for theory development. In this article, the author examines primary elections to the House of Representatives and develops a general theoretical framework of the influence electoral prospects have on the candidacy decisions of electively experienced and electively inexperi- enced candidates. Findings show that although improving electoral prospects encourage strong and weak candidates to enter primaries, the anticipated increase in primary competition discourages their entry, with weak candidates facing the more severe crowd-out pressures. Observation of district-level candidacy patterns in open-seat and incumbent-challenge primaries confirm the author's theoretical framework.

"Election Time: Normative Implications of Temporal Properties of the Electoral Process in the United States." Dennis F Thompson (Harvard University). American Political Science Review 98:1 (2004), pp. 51-64.

Elections take place at intervals, most citizens vote on the same day, and the electoral outcome is irrevocable until the next election. Each of these temporal properties (periodicity, simultaneity, and finality) is grounded in fundamental democratic values. Analyzing the properties shows how and why several anomalies in electoral theory and practice in the United States should be eliminated. Together the properties mark

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off electoral politics as a sphere that requires different and often more stringent standards than the rest of political life outside of government. Periodicity requires that the control of redistricting be independent of legislatures. Simultaneity opposes publishing the results of exit polls, expanding the use of early voting, and granting legislatures the authority to select presidential electors on their own schedule. Finality justifies more stringent regulation of campaign practices, such as electioneering ads.

LEGISLATIVE BEHAVIOR

"Taking the Lead: Congressional Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs in U.S. Foreign Policy." Ralph G Carter (Texas Christian University) and James M. Scott (Indiana State University). Politics & Policy 32:1 (2004), pp. 34-70.

This article examines the characteristics of individual members of Congress who become "foreign policy entrepreneurs." Rather than simply responding to an administration's foreign policy requests, such legislators try to lead Congress by initiating action on the foreign policy issues they care about rather than awaiting administration action. The authors examine foreign policy entrepreneurs across a number of factors, including the parties to which they belong, the chambers in which they serve, the various legislative access points they employ, and the different legislative tactics they use. The changes in such patterns over time are also examined. The authors test hypotheses about the characteristics and behavior of entrepreneurs using a dataset of 2,621 instances of entrepreneurial behavior across the post-World War II period. The authors conclude that congressional foreign policy entrepreneurs are increasingly salient players in the foreign policy process and are driven by policy disagreements and partisan calculations.

"Lame-Duck Legislators and Consideration of the Ship Subsidy Bill of 1922." Craig Goodman (Kennesaw State University) and Timothy P. Nokken (University of Houston). American Politics Research 32:4 (2004), pp. 465-89.

The notion that electoral concerns are strong determinants of roll-call voting provides the foundation for many theories of legislative behavior. To measure the importance of electoral considerations, the authors analyze a vote held in an environment in which a sizable number of members faced no electoral constraints: a lame-duck session of the House. The authors analyze the vote on a ship subsidy bill considered in a special lame-duck session of the 67th Congress (1922). In particular, they are interested in the possibility that lame-duck members were

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more inclined to support the politically unpopular proposal and whether they were able to translate that support into political benefits, such as presidential appointments. The authors estimate a series of probit models and find that lame-duck Republicans, notably those defeated in their reelection bids, were significantly more likely to vote in favor of final passage.

"The Statistical Analysis of Roll-Call Data." Joshua Clinton (Princeton University), Simon Jackman and Douglas Rivers (Stanford University). American Political Science Review 98:2 (2004), pp. 355-70.

In this article, the authors develop a Bayesian procedure for estimation and inference for spatial models of roll-call voting. This approach is extremely flexible, applicable to any legislative setting, irrespective of size, the extremism of the legislators' voting histories, or the number of roll calls available for analysis. The model is easily extended to let other sources of information inform the analysis of roll-call data. A Bayesian approach also provides a coherent framework for estimation and inference with roll-call data that eludes extant methods. Finally, via Bayesian simulation methods, it is straightforward to generate uncertainty assessments or hypothesis tests concerning any auxiliary quantity of interest or to formally compare models. In a series of examples, the authors show how this method is easily extended to accommodate theoretically interesting models of legislative behavior. The goal is to provide a statistical framework for combining the measurement of legislative preferences with tests of models of legislative behavior.

"Public Pressure and Punishment in the Politics of Congressional Pay Raises." Sean M. Theriault (University of Texas at Austin). American Politics Research 32:4 (2004), pp. 444-64.

Congressional pay raises, perhaps better than any other issue, pit members' personal interests against their constituents' preferences. And yet, various studies find that members rarely pay a political price for supporting pay raises. Such findings call into question the mechanism behind the large body of literature tying members' votes to their constituents' desires. Taking the stance that the electoral accountability theory is better than the empirical results, this article tries to uncover an electoral punishment. Three results stand out. First, electorally vulnerable members and members from poor districts are the least likely to vote for pay raises. Second, pay raise supporters suffer systematically lower reelection percentages. Third, members who support pay raises are more likely to lose. The latter two findings do not hold in every case but rather under systematically special circumstances.

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LEGISLATIVE ORGANIZA TION

"Understanding Institutional Change. Legislative Staff Develop- ment and the State Policymaking Environment." Lawrence J. Grossback (West Virginia University) and David A. M. Peterson (Texas A&M University). American Politics Research 32:1 (2004), pp. 26-51.

The study of state legislative change is dominated by concerns with the development of professional legislatures, but do the compo- nents of a professional legislature develop in the same way? If not, what accounts for change in state legislative institutions? The authors separate legislative staff from the larger concept of professionalism and offer a theory that explains staff development and its impact on both legislative activity and conflict with the governor. The authors demonstrate that staff size and organizational structure respond to internal and external competitive pressures, and they in turn have an effect on the larger policy environment separate from professionalism.

"Controlling the Agenda with Special Rules. A House-Senate Com- parison of Legislation in the Postreform Congress." Bryan W Marshall (University of Missouri, St. Louis). Politics & Policy 31.4 (2003), pp. 672-93.

One of the central questions in legislative politics is whether rules are used to achieve non-median policy outcomes. This study does not measure outcomes directly. Rather, the analysis assesses expectations from theories of legislative organization regarding both congressional process and behavior. Restrictive procedures are associated with policies that tend to have important collective consequences for the political parties. The analysis also demonstrates that voting on amendments allowed under the rules disproportionately favors the majority party. Finally, a comparison of voting behavior on final passage of legislation highlights House and Senate differences in leadership powers to control the agenda. The findings are consistent with a partisan rationale and reflect the significance of House special rules in limiting minority influence on the legislative agenda.

"Determinants of Legislative Turnover: A Cross-National Analysis." Richard E. Matland (University of Houston) and Donley T Studlar (West Virginia University). British Journal of Political Science 34:1 (2004), pp. 87-108.

For this study, two decades of turnover data were collected for the national legislature of 25 industrialized countries. After a discussion

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of turnover's significance, the authors compare turnover rates across countries. A set of variables expected to influence turnover rates is described and multiple regression is used to test the hypotheses devel- oped. Results show that frequency of elections, opportunity for double listings, electoral volatility, and legislative institutionalization have statistically significant effects on turnover. In addition, the type of electoral system (majoritarian versus proportional representation) is shown to have a statistically and substantively significant effect, with turnover much greater in the latter. Possible explanations for this effect are explored.

LEGISLA TIVE-EXECUTIVE RELA TIONS

"Policymaking through Advice and Consent: Treaty Consideration by the United States Senate." David Auerswald (National War College) and Forrest Maltzman (George Washington University). Journal of Politics 65:4 (2003), pp. 1097-110.

Conventional wisdom holds that the president of the United States has a high degree of autonomy over U.S. foreign policy. Such autonomy is said to stem in part from his ability to confront the Senate with the either-or choice of accepting or rejecting treaties. In this article, the authors take issue with this view and explore how the Senate uses treaty "reservations" to alter ratification documents and advance Senate policy views. It is found that conservative Senates and pivotal senators systematically exploit the right to add reservations and thus limit the president's autonomy in his conduct of foreign affairs.

"Gone Public. The Impact of Going Public on Presidential Legislative Success." Andrew W Barrett (Marquette University). American Politics Research 32:3 (2004), pp. 338-70.

Since the publication of Samuel Kemell's Going Public in 1986, many political scientists have accepted the theory of going public. Yet, few scholars have tested the effectiveness of this presidential strategy. This article provides the first large-scale quantitative test of going public to determine whether this strategy increases the president's probability of success in the legislative arena. This study is based on a content analysis of thousands of presidential remarks from the Public Papers of the Presidents for the years 1977-1992 regarding 186 significant pieces of legislation. Based on this analysis, going public is a successful legislative strategy for presidential initiatives and other bills supported by the president.

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