Legacy & Leading Edge Both are Winners - American … · 2017-06-02 · Legacy & Leading Edge Both...

© 2015 Techcet CA, LLC

www.techcet.com 1

Legacy & Leading Edge

Both are Winners

Semicon CMP User Group July 16, 2015

Sue Davis 408-833-5905

CMP Team Contributors:

Mike Fury, Ph.D.

Karey Holland, Ph.D. Jerry Yang, Ph.D.


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Outline

Semiconductor Outlook

2015 CMP Research Themes

CMP Market

Wrap Up


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Semiconductor Outlook Innovation is Alive & Well

New York Times, IBM Research


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Semiconductor Outlook

”

Mobile Market Continues to Evolve

• Mobile - Key IC growth driver

• Emerging Markets driving smart

phone market

• Mobile July 2015 Mobile forecast

(units shipped): • All mobile up 1.5%

• Smartphones up 3.3%

• Ultramobiles down 5.3%

• Tablets decrease 5.9%

• PC’s down >5%

• SSD market will continue to grow

• Key driver – cloud computing

• Key challenge – cost

Source: Gartner


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SSD Forecast

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Th

ou

san

ds o

f U

nit

s

Enterprise

Client

Industrial 15%

22%

Source: IHS

31%

CAGR


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Semiconductor Outlook Demand Driven by a Few Customers

Customers

Device Manufacturers

Materials Suppliers

Equipment Suppliers


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Requirements for the Semiconductor Industry

Channel

Higher Performance

Lower Power

Lower Cost

SemiWiki

Form Factor


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Themes: 2015 CMP Report Research

Leading Edge Devices

New CMP processes

• 3D transistor: Al and W for High k Gate Electrodes (new

materials, removal rate, defectivity, selectivity)

• 3D NAND: Defectivity for STI, PolySi, W

• 3D Packaging: High RR Cu slurry for TSV

Tailored Consumables (HkMG polymer coated alumina

particles; tunable pads for hardness & porosity)

Collaboration Across the Supply Chain will continue

Key Metrics: Defectivity, Planarization Efficiency, Polish

selectivity, Cost

Legacy Devices

CIP programs targeted to reduce cost & improve throughput

Impact of the IoT?


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Growing Number of Process Steps

Source: IC Insights, KLA-Tencor


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Changes to Shrink Logic & RAM

65-45nm

STI & CMP

Strained Si Gate

Co, Ni, W Gate Electrodes

W Contact

Cu wiring

8-10 (layers)

Low k dielectric

(SiOF, SiOC)

193nm Litho

28/20nm

Planar

STI & CMP

Strained Si Gate

HkMG HfO2

ALD

TiN & Al Gate

W Contact

Cu Wiring

9-11 (layers)

Low k & ULK dielectrics

22/20/16/14nm

FinFET

2 STI for Fin Isolation

HkMG HfO2

ALD

TiN TiAl W Gate

2 W Contact

Cu wiring

(12-14 layers)

Co barrier, Ta @ larger Cu

(12-14 layers)

Low k & porous low k

Multi Pattern Litho

# metal levels


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CMP Process Layers


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Wafer Starts per Year (200mm equivalent)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Wa

fer

Sta

rts

/ Y

ea

r (M

illi

on

s)

7nm Logic

7nm RAM

3D NAND G2

10-11nm Logic

10-11nm RAM

3D NAND G1

14-16nm RAM

1x-z NV

22, 14/16nm Logic

2x-z NV

22-20nm RAM

32, 28, 20nm Logic

32-28nm RAM

45nm Logic

65/45 nm RAM

65 nm Logic

90 nm Logic

130 nm Logic

180-150 nm L

>180nm


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IoT Perception: Industry Executives

McKinsey GSA Alliance IoT Implications Survey

• 30 Sr executives across IoT ecosystem interviewed

• 229 semiconductor executives interviewed

Survey Results

• Some “ambiguity” if IoT will be a key growth driver

• 48% interviewed stated IoT would be a top 3 growth

driver for the industry; with 17% ranking it as #1

• Cloud, software, security & systems integration viewed

as best opportunities


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IoT Process Node Breadth

ARM

”

ARM

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Permission granted by Gartner

Semiconductor Opportunity – IoT

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MEMs Total Units Forecast

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

other

Oscillator

RF MEMS

Actuator

Humidity

Temperature

Proximity

Pressure

Microphone

Gyroscope

Magnetometer

Accelerometer

12.4 B

43.4 B

units

Source: Semico

Research Corp


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Changes to Shrink Logic & RAM

> 180nm

STI & CMP

PolySi & silicides

Gate Electrodes

W Plugs/Al wiring

(4-6 layers)

TEOS

248nm litho

180nm

STI & CMP


W Plugs/Al Wiring

(4-6 layers)

TEOS

248nm litho

130nm

STI & CMP


W Contact

Cu wiring

(6-8 layers)

Low k dielectric

Phase Shift Litho

90nm

STI & CMP

Strained Silicon Gate


W Contact

Cu wiring

(6-8 layers)

Low k dielectric (SiOF)

Phase Shift Litho

300 mm wafers

# metal levels


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Normalized Pad & Slurry Revenue

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pads

Slurries

Pad 5 year CAGR 5.3%

Slurry 5 year CAGR 5.6%


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CMP Slurry Revenue 200mm & 300mm

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

% S

lurr

y R

even

ue

300mm

200mm

200mm ~ 300mm


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Pad Revenue 200mm & 300mm

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

% R

even

ue

200mm

200mm

200mm~300mm


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Pad and Slurry Revenue by Application

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Co

mb

ined

Pad

& S

lurr

y R

even

ue (

US

4M

)

Cu Barrier

Cu Step 1

Tungsten

Oxide

HkMG Oxide

HkMG Electrode

S-STI

See 2015

CMP Report


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2015 CMP Consumables Market Shares

Total TAM $2.24B

Slurry, $1,260M

Pads, $685M

Conditioners, $205M

PVA Brushes, $48M

Slurry Filters, $43M

Slurry

Pads

Conditioners

PVA Brushes

Slurry Filters


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CMP Supply Chain Impacted by IoT

“Significant – extreme” pricing pressure

Legacy slurries are being used and will grow very

slightly (STI/oxide/W/Cu)

Competition in both pad and slurry market

Crowded ceria slurry market

CIP programs continue; changes to POR when

CoO/tpt gain > cost of requalification

Supply chain capacity well positioned


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Techcet Materials Coverage includes:

ALD Hi K

Precursors

CMP Consumables

Dielectric

Precursors

3D/TSV Packaging

Gases

Graphites

Photoresist &

Ancillaries

Quartz

Silicon Carbide

Silicon Wafers

Sputtering Targets

Si Equipment

Components

Wafer Level

Packaging (WLP)

Polymers

Wet Chemicals


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Lita Shon-Roy – President / CEO

Rasirc/Matheson Gas, IPEC/Athens, Air Products, Rockwell/Brooktree

Karey Holland, Ph.D. – Chief Technical Officer

FEI, NexPlanar, IPEC, Motorola, IBM

Sue Davis – Director of Business Development & Sr. Analyst

TI, Sematech, Motorola, Rodel (DOW)

Mike Fury, Ph.D. – Sr. Technology Analyst IBM, Rodel, EKC, Vantage

Jerry Yang, Ph.D. – Sr. Technology Analyst Rohm & Hass Electronic Materials, Rodel, SpeedFam/IPEC, Lam

Research

Bruce Adams – Sr. Technology Analyst Matheson Gas, Air Products, & Chemicals, Honeywell

Yu Bibby, Ph. D. – Sr. Technology Analyst UV Global, ipCapital Group, Wilkes University

Jiro Hanaue – Sr. Technology Analyst Applied Materials

Chris Blatt – Sr. Market Analyst Air Products, IPEC/Athens, Zeon Chemicals

John Housely, Ph.D. – Advisor

Techcet Group

www.techcet.com


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Available as Full Report or by Individual Consumable

• 11 Sections

• 7 Markets Segments

• >170 Supplier Profiles

• Process Flows

For additional informational or to purchase

• [email protected]

• 480-336-2160 orders

• 480-275-3101 fax orders

• www.Techcet.com

Techcet’s 2015 CMP Critical Materials Report

http://www.techcet.com/

Legacy & Leading Edge Both are Winners - American … · 2017-06-02 · Legacy & Leading Edge Both...

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Transcript of Legacy & Leading Edge Both are Winners - American … · 2017-06-02 · Legacy & Leading Edge Both...