Lecture2 Main building blocks - TU Delft OCW€¦ · Lecture2 Main building blocks Created Date:...
Transcript of Lecture2 Main building blocks - TU Delft OCW€¦ · Lecture2 Main building blocks Created Date:...
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1CIE4801: Building blocks
31-08-18
Challenge the future
DelftUniversity ofTechnology
CIE4801 Transportation and spatial modelling
Rob van Nes, Transport & Planning
Main building blocks
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2CIE4801: Building blocks
Agenda
• Homework and leftovers• Three comments• 4-step model structure
• Main building blocks• Zones• Modelling unit• Networks• Data
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3CIE4801: Building blocks
1.1Three comments to start with
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4CIE4801: Building blocks
Three comments to start with
• Modelling as a concept
• Civil engineering approach
• There’s math in this course
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5CIE4801: Building blocks
1: Modelling as a concept
• Models are tools you use for different purposes
• It is not only about having an as accurate model as possible, it is also about usefulness
• And there are more comments to make on modelling. Please read this short essay:• Epstein, J. M. (2008). Why model? Journal of Artificial Societies and
Social Simulation, 11(4), 12. http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/11/4/12.html.
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6CIE4801: Building blocks
Comments?
• Personal selection of quotes• Explicit models can be written down and can be calibrated using data• Feasibility of sensitivity analysis• Do not obviate the need for judgement but can discipline the
dialogue• Models can be data driven, but often theory precedes data collection• Many simple beautiful models form the conceptual foundations of
their respective fields.• All models are wrong, but some are useful• Seemingly unrelated processes have formally identical models• Models can surprise us, make us curious and lead to new questions• It enforces a scientific habit of mind• Intellectuals have a solemn duty to doubt and to teach doubt
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7CIE4801: Building blocks
2: “Civil engineering” approach
• Decomposition• Material• Molecule• Atom• Protons, neutrons, electrons• Etc.
• For each component there might be different options
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8CIE4801: Building blocks
Overview of approaches for demand modelling
“Material” “Molecule” “Atoms”Descriptive models/Aggregate models
Choice modelling/Disaggregate models
Transport demand models
Trip generation A B IDistribution C D IIModal split E IIITime of day F IVAssignment G H V
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9CIE4801: Building blocks
Consequences
• Make sure you grasp the relationships ‘material-molecule-atom’
• Suggestion 1: make for each ‘molecule’ an A4 with• Input, output, key process, ‘atoms’ plus key characteristics, practical
issues, links with other ‘molecules’
• Suggestion 2: formulate possible exam questions for each ‘molecule’ itself as well as for the link with the ‘material’ or ‘atoms’
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10CIE4801: Building blocks
3: There’s math in this course….
( ) ( )ln ! ln !ij i i ij j j ij ij ijij i j j i i j
T T P T A T C T cl l bæ ö æ öæ ö
- + × - + × - + × - ×ç ÷ ç ÷ç ÷è øè ø è ø
å å å å å åå
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11CIE4801: Building blocks
Why math?
• Math provides the most accurate description of models
• Mathematical derivations demonstrate essential assumptions
• For those of you who would like to go in more detail the basics of the model formulations should be familiar
• Of course there will also be students having different interests
• Therefore:• Derivations are not part of the exam• You’re allowed to bring a formula sheet
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12CIE4801: Building blocks
So what kind of math do we use?
• Indices, summation and multiplication
• Exponential functions and logarithms
• Derivatives and integrals
• Maximisation and minimisation of objective functions
• Lagrange multipliers
• Maximum likelihood estimation, regression
• A bit of statistics: distribution function, mean, standard deviation
Check chapter 2 of the bookfor an update, if necessary
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13CIE4801: Building blocks
1.24-step model structure
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14CIE4801: Building blocks
Framework for transport modelling
Trip production /Trip attraction
Trip distribution
Modal split
Assignment
Travel timesnetwork loads
etc.
• Logical?• Additions?• Alternatives?
Demandmodelling
Supply modelling
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15CIE4801: Building blocks
Framework for transport modellingTrip production /Trip attraction
Trip distribution
Modal split
(Period of day)
Assignment
Zonal data
Transport networks
Travelresistances
Trip frequencychoice
Destinationchoice
Modechoice
Timechoice
Routechoice
Travel timesnetwork loads
etc.
Questions• Do you miss components?• Are there too many
components?• Which component is
unclear?• Is there logic in the order
of the components?• What about the feedback
in the scheme?• How could you check the
quality of the model?• Where does OD-
estimation fit in?
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16CIE4801: Building blocks
Relation transport system and spatial system
Transport system
(transport and traffic services)
Accessibility (ease to reach a
location)
Land use (spatial planning)
Activities (living. work. recreation)
Key difference betweenboth systems:
Different time scales
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17CIE4801: Building blocks
In more detail: Wegener’s circle
M. Wegener, 1995, 2004
Choice destina-
tion
Choice mode
Choice route/time
Travel time & costs
Accessibility
Attractiveness
Choice location
investors
Build
Choice location
users
Move
Activities
Ability to travel
Choice trip
4-stage model
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18CIE4801: Building blocks
2.1Zones
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19CIE4801: Building blocks
Zones and transport models: example
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20CIE4801: Building blocks
Zones and transport models: questions
• Why do we use zones?
• What are the requirements for a zone?
• What kind of data would you like to have for each zone?
• How large should a zone be?
• Are all zones similar in size?
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21CIE4801: Building blocks
Which area do you model?
Study area
Influence area
External area
Studyarea
Internal Out Out
Influencearea
In Throughand…..
Throughand…..
External area
In Throughand…..
Throughand…..
Study area
Cordon
Studyarea
Internal Out
Cordon In Through
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22CIE4801: Building blocks
Swiss model
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23CIE4801: Building blocks
2.2Modelling unit
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24CIE4801: Building blocks
Modelling unit
Zone Individual
Groups within zones Individual types/Households
Aggregate or descriptive models
Disaggregate or choice models
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25CIE4801: Building blocks
What is modelled: trips or tours?
• Trip
• Tour Home Activity 1
Activity 2
Home Activity
Origin Destination
Destination Origin
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26CIE4801: Building blocks
2.3Networks
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27CIE4801: Building blocks
Constructing a transport network
Given a map of the study area, how to represent the infrastructure and thetravel demand in a model?
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28CIE4801: Building blocks
Network attributes
node• x-coordinate• y-coordinate
centroid node• zonal data• origin/destination
link• node-from• node-to• length• maximum speed• number of lanes• capacity
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29CIE4801: Building blocks
Links and junctions
=
Junction with allturns allowed
Junction with no left turns allowed
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30CIE4801: Building blocks
Define zones and select roads
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31CIE4801: Building blocks
Selection of links
4321 nodes1217 zones
826 nodes 170 zones
204 nodes 36 zones
centroidnodereal linkconnector
How many zones / nodes / links?
• depends on the application• rule of thumb:include 75% of the network capacity(note: 20% of the network accountsfor 80% of the travelled kilometers)
• alternative approach:include one network level lower thanthe network you’re interested in.
modelling=
the art of leaving things out
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32CIE4801: Building blocks
Which roads should be included?
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33CIE4801: Building blocks
Urban or regional model?
Regional Urban
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34CIE4801: Building blocks
Example car network regional model
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35CIE4801: Building blocks
Public transport networks
• Link network plus public transport lines
• Link network: two functions• Access and egress, transfer• Infrastructure (road, rail) for public transport lines
• Public transport lines• Sequence of (infrastructure) links• Correction factors for link travel times• Stops• Line characteristics: frequency, one-way/two-way lines, fare system
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36CIE4801: Building blocks
Important issues
• Connecting the zones to the network:
• Single connector or multiple connectors?
• Connecting to which type of node/link?
• Choices have major consequences for the assignment to the network!
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37CIE4801: Building blocks
2.4Data
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38CIE4801: Building blocks
Data needed for modelling
• Zonal data• Network data
• Data from other models• E.g. regional model as input/constraint for an urban model• OD-matrix trucks from a freight transport model
• Date for modelling travel behaviour
• Data for modelling travel choice behaviour• To be discussed in Lecture 4
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39CIE4801: Building blocks
Data sources
• Traffic/Passenger counts• Road• Public transport
• Surveys• Roadside• Public transport• License plate • Household
• New data sources• Cell phones• Route planners• Chip cards
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40CIE4801: Building blocks
Counts versus surveys
• Counting seems simple• In practice quite a difference in quality• Limited number of locations
• Just numbers, no information on traveller
• Surveys focus on travellers• Road side surveys or PT surveys are still limited• Limited number of locations
• Household (or person) survey are most informative
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41CIE4801: Building blocks
Example traffic counts: NSL Monitor
Is in fact smart integration of counts and models.
Includes model forecasts as well.
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42CIE4801: Building blocks
Example travel pattern from a surveyDeparture
timeDestination Modes Distance Arrival time
06:32 To work Bike, train, walk 28 km 7:20
1. Train station Bike 2 km 6:40
2. Train station Train 25 km 7:10
3. Work Walk 1 km 7:20
14:30 To home Walk, train, bike 28 km 15:18
1. Train station Walk 1 km 14:40
2. Train station Train 25 km 15:10
3. Home Bike 2 km 15:18
15:23 Pick up kid from school
Walk 0,6 km 15:30
15:35 To home Walk 0,6 km 15:44
19:27 Tour with a friend Bike 19 km 20:43
23:55 Walk the dog Walk 2 km 0:20
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43CIE4801: Building blocks
Survey issues
• Non-response / Non-reporting• Persons / specific trips
• In-/excluding kids <12 year• Inconsistency in definitions and phrasing of the questions over time• Splitting roundtrips or not• Registration of frequent (professional) trips• Pedestrians/cyclists
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44CIE4801: Building blocks
Travel characteristics Netherlands (MON)
Travel time budget!
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45CIE4801: Building blocks
Trip purpose (Netherlands) Trips and trip kilometres for an average day
Visit people
Leisure, sport
Shopping
Commuting
Education
Business
Other
Trip purpose is defined by the activity at the destination, except when thedestination is home, then the activity at the origin is decisive
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46CIE4801: Building blocks
Modal split (Netherlands)Trips and trip kilometres for an average day
Walk
Bicycle
Car driver
Car passenger
Bus
Tram/metro
Train
Other
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47CIE4801: Building blocks
Trip length distributions (Netherlands)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Commuting Business Shopping Visiting people Total