Lecture Notes Week 1 Part 1

EC203

Economic StatisticsEconomic Statistics

Dr. Hong ChenSchool of Economics, FBE, USP

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Contact your lecturer & tutor:

Lecturer: Dr Hong Chen

Email: [email protected] Office: 014-S211 Phone: 3232579Phone: 3232579

Tutor: Mr Markand Bhatt

Email: [email protected] Office: 014-S255 Phone: 3232177

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Meet your lecturer & tutor:

Lectures: Tuesday 09:00-10:00 (Venue: 092-001)Wednesday 08:00-09:00 (Venue: 092-001)Friday 13:00-14:00 (Venue: 092-001)

Tutorials: Onehoureachweekstartingin week2.Tutorials: Onehoureachweekstartingin week2.

Lab sessions: Two hours every two weeks starting in week 3 or 4.

Consultation: MondayTuesdayWednesdayFriday

14:00-15:0010:00-11:0009:00-10:0011:00-13.00

(Venue: 014-S255)(Venue: 014-S211)(Venue: 014-S211)(Venue: 014-S255)

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WHAT IS STATISTICS & WHY STUDY STATISTICS

� Data and numerical information are everywhere in today’s world:

• e.g., currency exchange rates in the world market, population census within a country, prices market, population census within a country, prices of agricultural products in a region, monthly living expenses of a family, and exam grades of students in a university.

• What do all these data tell us, and how can we make good use of them?

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� Statistics is a tool for creating better understanding from a set of numbers.

� Statistics deals with the collection, organization and � Statistics deals with the collection, organization and interpretation of data, and provides information to decision makers. E.g.

• People selling crabs in the Suva market do walk around and meet fellow salesmen before making decisions on the prices;

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• MH supermarket managers should have a good understanding about consumption preferences of target consumers, exchange rate of Fijian currency, transport cost, etc. before they decide to import certain food from etc. before they decide to import certain food from overseas; and

• Fiji Islands Bureau of Statistics conducts household surveys to find out the welfare of Fijian people.

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� Statistics investigates real problems in the practical world

• It has extensive applications in many areas such as economics, business, marketing, finance, computing, physics, climatology, etc.

�Study statistics provides good career opportunities

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COURSE CONTENTS

� An introductory course in statistics designed for students in economics, accounting, banking and finance and management.

� Emphasis is placed on the application of statistical techniques to those disciplines.

�A basic knowledge of economics is required.

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COURSE CONTENTS

� Topics include:

• Data collection, charts and graphs• Descriptive statistics• Probability and distributions• Probability and distributions• Statistical inferences• Analysis of continuous/discrete data• Estimation and hypothesis testing, and • Introduction to econometrics (including simple/multiple regression analyses, time-

series forecasting, etc)

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LEARNING OUTCOMES

� On completing this course, you are expected to:

• Express a problem in statistical terms, i.e., in terms of data and providing statistical information;data and providing statistical information;

• Distinguish between population and sample, and choose an appropriate sample design for selecting a sample from a population;

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LEARNING OUTCOMES

• Summarize data graphically and numerically;

• Run simple/multiple regressions to analyze issues in • Run simple/multiple regressions to analyze issues in economics, accounting, and finance;

• Understand the assumptions of the linear models, and

• Interpret regression results.

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LECTURES, TUTORIALS & COMPUTER LAB SESSIONS

� Three hours of lectures per week

� One hour tutorial per week

� Two hours of computer lab every 2 weeks

• Sign up for tutorial and computer lab session on MOODLE

• Your place in a slot of tutorial/computer lab session cannot be changed unless with the permission from lecturer

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� Attending tutorial is IMPORTANT

• Inform your tutor before hand if you cannot attend it

• You will be dropped out from the course given your absence from two successive tutorials without explanation

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� There is a set of exercises each week

• Complete those exercises before attending tutorials• Solutions will be put on MOODLE in the week after • Solutions will be put on MOODLE in the week after the tutorial

� In computer labs you learn how to use Excel for statistical analyses

�All calculations will be done on a calculator or Excel

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COURSE MATERIALS

• Black et al. (2010) “Australasian Business Statistics”, 2nd Edition, Wiley. Business Statistics”, 2nd Edition, Wiley. (Note: Black et al. 1st Edition will also do.)

• “Eton Statistical & Math Tables”, Heinemann Education, 1980.

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LECTURE TOPICS & TIME SCHEDULE

Week TopicCovered in Chapters

of the textbook1 1. Data Collection, Charts and Graphs Chapters 1 and 22 2. Descriptive Statistics Chapter 33 3. Probability Chapter 44 4. Discrete and Continuous Distributions Chapters 5 and 65 5. Sampling and Sampling Distribution Chapter 76 6. Statistical Inference (Part I) Chapter 8

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7 7. Statistical Inference (Part II) Chapters 98 Mid-term break9 8. Statistical Inference (Part III) Chapter 1010 9. Analysis of Variance Chapter 1111 10. Analysis of Categorical Data Chapter 1212 11. Simple Regression Analysis Chapters 1313 12. Multiple Regression Analysis Chapter 14 and 1514 13. Time-series Forecasting Chapter 1615 Revision16 Study week17

Final Examination18

ASSESSMENT

1) Coursework (50%)2 quizzes 5% (Quiz 1 – Week 4; Quiz 2 – Week 9)2 tests 20% (Test 1 – Week 6; Test 2 – Week 12)2 lab tests 10% (in 3rd and 5th lab sessions respectively)1 assignment 10% (DueWeek13)

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1 assignment 10% (DueWeek13)Tutorial Participation 5%Total 50%

2) Final examination (50%)

GRADES

The letter grade scale for this course is follows:

A+ 80% and overA 75-79%A 75-79%B+ 70-74%B 65-69%C+ 60-64%C 50-59%D 40-49%E below 40%

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ACADEMIC HONESTY

• The USP’s standard regulations on plagiarism and dishonest practice apply to the coursework and examination. examination.

• More information on assessment regulations can be accessed on the webpage http://www.usp.ac.fj/index.php?id=2838.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

�ECONOMIC STUDENT ASSOCIATION

�Tutorials

MOODLE�MOODLE

�Labs

�Quiz

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Lecture Notes Week 1 Part 1

Documents

Transcript of Lecture Notes Week 1 Part 1