Lecture 7 New

7/23/2019 Lecture 7 New

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The Basic Issue: Population GrowthAnd the Quality of Life

Basic Question: How does development affect population growth?

Major issues relating to this question are:

• Will developing countries be capable of improving

the levels of living for their people with the current

and anticipated levels of growth?

•How will the L!s be able to cope with the increasing

labor force?

•What are the implications of higher population growth in

the wa" of reducing povert" in the World#s poor countries?

• $s there a relationship between povert" and famil" si%e?



World population growth



Year Addition in Population(million)

16!"1#! 1$%

1#!"1$! &&%

1$!"1'! 1&!

1#!"1'! 1(# )illion in two centuries

1'!"1''! *ore than dou)le in +ust &decades(



World Population Growth 1#!",!!



World population growth rates and dou)lingti-es



• .easons for change in populationgrowth

• /istorically 0 due to fa-ine 2oodsdisease -alnutrition plague andwar etc(3

• 4ince the ,!th century

• Ad5ance-ent in -edical science

• 4pread of -odern sanitation in theworld especially in the de5elopingcountries(



4tructure of the WorldsPopulation

World population distribution by region, 2003 and 2050

,!!% ,!!

.egion 4hare ofpopulation 073

.egion 4hare ofpopulation 073

8urope 1, #

Africa 1& ,!

9orth A-erica

Latin A-erica ' '

Asia andceania

6! '



;ertility rate for selectedcountriesCountry 190 200!

Bangladesh #(! %(!6

<olo-)ia (% ,(&

Indonesia ( ,(&

=a-aica (% ,(%

*e>ico &(' ,(&

Thailand ( 1(#

?i-)a)we #(# %(6

Pa@istan 6(% &(!



;ertility and Population Growth .atesin Isla-ic <ountries



• The ta)le shows the decline infertility rate(

• Life e>pectancy at )irth in 1'! wasa5erage % to &! as co-pared to 6,to 6 years in de5eloped countries(

• By 1'$! the dierence reduce to 16due to increase in life e>pectancy inL<s(

• In ,!! the life e>pectancy was

a)out #$ years in de5eloped



Age 4tructure and ependency

Burden

• Couthful population in de5elopingworld(

• <hildren under age 1 constitute-ore than ,'7 of the totalpopulation of the L<s as co-paredto 1#7 of the de5eloped countries(

• ;or e>a-ple in ,!! &&7 of8thiopias population &%7 of9igerias population and &67 of

Pa@istans population(



"#e #idden momentum o$population gro%t#• The pheno-enon of youth dependency leads to an

i-portant concept the hidden -o-entu- ofpopulation(

• The least understood the concept of populationgrowth is its tendency to continue e5en after )irthrates ha5e declined su)stantially(

• This -o-entu- can persist for decades after )irth

rates drop(

• "%o reasons

• 1& /igh )irth rates can not )e altered su)stantially

o5ernight( 4ocial econo-ic and institutional forceswhich ha5e in2uenced on fertility rates do note5aporate on the urging of national leaders( ;ore>a-ple 8uropean nations(



• 4econd reason relates to the age structureof L< populations( As the Dg gi5en at ne>tslide the young people greatly e>ceed their

parents( When their generation will )eco-eadult the nu-)er of potential parents willine5ita)ly )e -uch larger than at present(

• As co-pared to L<s the de5eloped

countries pyra-id is 5ery dierent( In theE4A the population under age ,! dierslittle fro- the ,!"&! and &!"6! age cohorts(



Population distri)ution pyra-id of

Pa@istan(



Age <o-position of Pa@istan



Pa@istan La)our ;orce



Population Growth .ate 073



9et Addition in Population inPa@istan



4elected e-ographicIndicators in Pa@istan



The /idden *o-entu- ofPopulation Growth

• Population growth has a )uilt intendency to continue e5en after )irthrates ha5e declined su)stantially(

• Two )asic reasons

• 1( /igh )irth rates can not )e alteredsu)stantially o5ernight due to social

cultural econo-ic and institutionalforces that in2uenced fertility ratescan not )e changes on the desire of

national leaders(



• Coung people greatly e>ceed theirparents(

• When their generation reachesadulthood the nu-)er of potentialparents will ine5ita)ly )e -uch largerthan at present(

• If the potential parents ha5e only two@ids per couple e5en then thenu-)er of children will )e -uch

-ore than their parents( It -eans



• Illustration of the a)o5e Dgure(

• the i-portant -essage ofpopulation -o-entu- is that e5eryyear that passes without a reductionin fertility -eans a larger -ultiple ofthe present total population siFe

)efore it can e5entually le5el o(



The de-ographic transition

• 4tage I: high )irthrates and deathrates

• 4tage II: continued high )irthratesdeclining death rates

• 4tage III: falling )irthrates and deathrates e5entually sta)iliFing



The de-ographic transition in Western8uprope



The de-ographic transition in L<s(



The causes of high fertility in L<s:the *althusian *odel



+>∂

∂

Y

C d

+<

∂

∂

c

d

P

C

+>∂

∂

x

d

P

C

+<

∂

∂

x

d

t

C

Ender neoclassical conditions we would e>pect:

n xt P P Y f C x xcd &'''&()&&&&* ==



"IncreaseJdecrease in inco-e"Increase in Price0opportunity cost3"4i-ultaneous increase in inco-e and net child price(0inc( in

wages or fe-ale e-ploy-ent opportunity and incr( in ta> oncertain nu-)er of child(



<onclusion

• /igher le5el of li5ing for low inco-efa-ilies in co-)ination with arelati5e increase in the price of

children will -oti5ate // to ha5efewer children while still i-pro5ingtheir welfare(

• This is one e>a-ple of how thea)o5e theory shed light on therelationship )Jw econo-ic

de5elop-ent and population growth(

e-and for children in de5eloping



e-and for children in de5elopingcountries• The theory of fertility assu-es that the household de-and for

children is deter-ined )y the fa-ily preferences for a certain

nu-)er of sur5i5ing0usually -ale children3(• BcF children in poor countries are seen as econo-ic

in5est-ent goods 0child la)or K support in old ages3(

• In -any de5eloping countries there is a strong cultural andpsychological deter-inants of fa-ily siFe( 0;irst two or three

children are 5iewed as consu-er goods for which price doesnot -atter(3

• *arginal analysis 0decision a)out an e>tra child3

• Parents are assu-ed to weight pri5ate )eneDts to pri5ate cost(

• Pri5ate )eneDts: e>pected inco-e as child la)or and old age)eneDt(

• Pri5ate cost: pportunity cost of the -others ti-e andopportunity and actual cost of educating children(

• <onclusion: When the price or cost of children increases the

desire to ha5e -ore children will reduce and 5ice 5ersa(



8-pirical 85idences

•arious e-pirical studiesconcluded that

• Increase in fe-ale +o)

opportunities and fe-ale schoolattendance are closely related todecrease in le5el of fertility(

• *oreo5er decrease in children-ortality also decreases thedesire of -ore children(

I-plications for e5elop-ent and



I-plications for e5elop-ent and;ertility

• The eect of social and econo-ic progress in

lowering fertility will )e the greatest when the-a+ority especially the 5ery poor get share inits )eneDts(

• Birth rates a-ong 5ery poor li@ely to fall

where the following socioecono-ic changesoccurs(

• 1( Increase in the education of wo-en

• ,( Increase in the fe-ale nonagricultural

e-ploy-ent opportunities(• %( .ise in fa-ily inco-e le5el

• &(.eduction in infant -ortality

• (e5elop-ent of old age and other socialsecurity syste-(

e conseMuences o g er y: o-e con c ngi i



M g y gopinions( Population 'ro%t# s A Problem

• "#e *+tremist Argument Population and t#e 'lobal Crisis

– Po5erty low le5els of li5ing -alnutrition ill health en5iron-ental

degradation etc(• "#e "#eoreti-al Argument Population.po/erty -y-les and t#e need $or

$amily planning programs&

– Population growth"""reduces indi5idual and national sa5ing """ reduces per

capital inco-e growth of the present population and this further trans-it

po5erty to ne>t generation(

–8con( e5 is necessary condition to decrease population( But it is not asuNcient condition( In addition to 8co( e5( ;a-ily planning progra-s with

technological -eans are reMuired to li-it population growth(

• "#e *mpiri-al Arguments

• egati/es -onseuen-es o$ population gro%t#

– Lower C per head

– Poor people )ear )urden of population growth – Large population li-its educational opportunities

– /ealth of wo-en is har-ed

– ;a-ily food is li-ited

– 8n5iron-ental degradation occurs due to deforestation soil erosion decliningDsh and ani-al stoc@ unsafe water ur)an congestion etc(

– Illegal international -igration and o5er ur)aniFation

P l ti G th I t A



Population Growth Isnt APro)le- O• "#e problem is not t#e population gro%t# but ot#er issues and t#at

are

• t#er ssues – nderde/elopment 0As long as the 5ast -a+ority of people in de5eloping

countries re-ain i-po5erished uneducated physically and psychologicallywea@ the large fa-ilies will constitute3(

– 4esour-e epletion and *n/ironmental estru-tion 0e5elopedcountries with less than one Muarter of the worlds population consu-e-ore than $!7 of the worlds resources( 8(g (<s peoples consu-e 16ti-es -ore food energy and -aterial resources3

– Population istribution 0Go5t( should reduce rural ur)an -igrationand )ring a)out -ore natural spatial distri)ution of the population in ter-sof a5aila)le land and other producti5e resources3(

– 6ubordination o$ Women ( the e-power-ent of wo-en will ine5ita)lylead to s-aller fa-ilies and low population growth(3

• 7alse ssue – 9eocolonial dependence theory 0in it the rich nations want to hold down

the de5elop-ent in the L<s in order to @eep their supre-acy( espite ofthe fact that they the-sel5es ha5e passed through this stage ofo5erpopulation and used it for their de5elop-ent(3



• esirable

– *ore population """"" *ore <onsu-er e-and

– 8cono-ies of 4cale""""Lower production cost(

–

La)or 4upply 0suNcient"low cost3 – And due to all a)o5e high output le5el is achie5ed(

– ;ree -ar@ets and hu-an ingenuity will sol5e any and allpro)le-s arising fro- population growth(

– 9on"econo-ic reasons 0-ore population to protect

country )orders3



4o-e policy approaches

•

What de5eloping countries can do: – Long run: increase the price of child• opportunity cost of -others ti-e

• <ost of educating child

– 4hort run: control fertility• Persuade people• ;a-ily"planning progra-s

• 8cono-ic incenti5es and disincenti5es

• .edistri)ute population

• <o-pel people )y legislation and penalties 0it is

diNcult as in india3• .aise wo-ens social and econo-ic status



• What the de5eloped countries can do

• .educe the consu-ption of resources

• pen international -igration

Lecture 7 New

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