Lecture 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I) – The Provocative Strategy of Al-Qaeda? 17 th February 2003...
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Transcript of Lecture 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I) – The Provocative Strategy of Al-Qaeda? 17 th February 2003...
Lecture 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I) – The Provocative Strategy
of Al-Qaeda?
17th February 2003 (Monday)
Session Arrangement
T1: 10:00-11:00am Room 4472 [s] T2A: 11:00-11:50am Room 1403 [k] T2B: 11:00-11:50am Room 4472 [s] T3A: 12:00-12:50pm Room 4472 [k] T3B: 12:00-12:50pm Room 3301A [s]
PLEASE FINALIZE TODAY!
Macro Vs Micro Origins
George W Bush: Why do they hate us so much?
Macro Origins: Long-term Historical Development Islamic Fundamentalism, Clash of Civilization, the Americ
an Pride… Micro Origins:
Why was 911 arranged that way? Why did Osama Bin Laden arrange the attack despite his
expectation of American revenge? Laden Conspiracy; Bush Conspiracy; No Conspiracies…
Structure of Lecture 6: Does the Methodology of 911 Matter? 2 Possible Plans of Osama Bin Laden Minimalist Plan: Omar Doctrine Maximalist Plan: The Grand Strategy Conclusion: The “Taoist Strategy”
Alternatives of 911
Assassination of President? Overseas Bombing? Ally with Anti-American Powers? Self-strengthening Movement? Cultural/ Psychological Attack?
Does Methodology Matter?
Doesn’t matter: The Invisible Hands Theory
Does matters: The Marxist History Capitalism Imperialism Socialism Class Consciousness against Exploiters
Some Yes, Some No Short-term Vs Long-term History
We Can’t Truly Understand the Planners:
Goals of the Decision-makers
Type 1: Goals on Paper Type 2: Goals by Research Type 3: Conspiracy Theories
Goals not-researchable The American Conspiracy Theory The Al-Qaeda Conspiracy Theory
Goals of Al-Qaeda: Which Level?
Assigned Readings
Main Text: Walter Laqueur: “Left, Right, and Beyond – the Changing Face of Terror” (H&R P.71-82)
Supplementary Text: Tariq Ali: The Clash of Fundamentalisms. Chapter 20: The September Surprise. (P.290-302).
The Minimal Argument
Laden has more capabilities: Unconventional Weapons Jihad The Trend of Escalation
“HK Military Expert”: “more to come” Aim: To drive America out of the Middle
East
The Maximal Argument
Laden has no more capabilities: The Vacuum of US Intelligence Eradication of Al-Qaeda Headquart
ers Lacking in Mass Destruction Weap
ons Pentagon (e.g. Wesley Clark):
No more of the same scale Aim: to change the world
Precedence: Monroe Doctrine (1825)
Latin America (Central + South America)
America’s Sphere of Interest End of Napoleonic War (1815)
End of Spanish Colonial Empire (1820s)
President James Monroe:“America is America’s America” (1825)
The “Omar Doctrine”
“If American wants to root out terrorism and intimidation, then it should withdraw its force from the
Gulf and demonstrate neutrality over the issue of Palestine.”
-- Omar, Head of Taliban (Sept 24 2001)
Message from the Omar Doctrine
“Middle East is Islam’s Middle East” Osama Bin Laden’s Video Speeches Omar instead of Laden:
Victim Vs Aggressor
“Grand Strategy”
Professor Paul Kennedy:
“Grand Strategy” in Cold War “War of Unlimited Boundaries” by Chinese Provocative Strategy
The strategy to unite the whole world against the United States
To provoke the Americans at 911 The Americans will fight back in an insane man
ner and angered the whole world
OBL Step 1: Hysteria of America
Human Loss/ Civilian Loss
Vs Military Loss/ Assassination Hysteria of Mass Opinion
Getting out from the Vietnam War Shadow
Hysteria of Government Extremist Foreign Policies Patriotism, Marginalization of Leftists New McCarthyism against the Muslims…
OBL Step 2: Alienation of Arabic Allies
Sentiments of Muslims Unification
Crisis of Pro-Western Arabic Governments
Coups d’etat? Saudi Arabia: the money
Crown Prince Abdullah’s Dilemma Pakistan: the nuclear arsenal
General Pervez Musharraf: Military Dictatorship by American En
dorsement + Popular Election
OBL Step 3:Alienation of Western Allies
Genuine Anti-war Movements Convince American Allies of the “Next S
tep of America”: towards its allies as well
Neutralization of the Western Bloc France: UN Veto power; The Uncompromisi
ng History… Germany: Real Leader of Europe… Turkey: Internal Security Concern…
OBL Step 4: Revolution of World Order
Anti-Americanism as a New Culture: Message from the Anti-war Demonstration Message from the Internet
Experience of Cultural Revolution in China: From “Great Disorder” to the “Great Order”
Assumptions under Chaos Theory 2001-2003: Successful?
Osama Bin Laden:Benefit of the Doubt
A “Calculative Planner”:
the planner who can see the outcome -- Computer Simulation/ RISK McArthur: I’ll be Back!
A “Messianic Planner”:
the planner who can’t see the outcome -- “Statements of Wisdom” Jesus: fall of Roman Empire
Taoism in International Relations
Philosophy of Lao Zi’s Tao Te Jing: “The Way can be told is not the W
ay.” (Cp.1) “The Weak conceal its ability to ov
ercome the Strong.” (Cp.36) Osama Bin Laden: Invite the A
merican Invasion under Taoism?
Analogy of the Business World
Stock Market Unfriendly bid by small potatoes Hysterias fight back by Tycoons Chain Effects: sympathy/ allies/ overreach of
tycoons… favorable to small potatoes Revolution of Stock Market