Lecture 5 Newell 1999
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THE INDUCED INNOVATION HYPOTHESIS
AND ENERGY-SAVING TECHNOLOGICALCHANGE
Richard G. Newell
Adam B. Jaffe
Robert N. Stavins
Working Paper 6437
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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
THE INDUCED INNOVATION HYPOTHESIS
AND ENERGY-SAVING TECHNOLOGICAL
CHANGE
Richard G. NewellAdam B. Jaffe
Robert N. Stavins
Working Paper 6437
http://www.nber.org/papers/w6437
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
March 1998
This paper is based on Newells Ph.D. dissertation at Harvard University. We thank, without
implicating, Robert Deacon, William Hogan, Raymond Kopp, Albert Nichols, William Pizer, and
Martin Weitzman for useful comments. We also thank Suzanne Kim, Sandip Madhavareddy, and
Karthik Muralidharan for excellent research assistance. The research was supported by U.S.
Department of Energy award No. DE-FG02-95ERG2106, a Resources for the Future Joseph L.
Fisher Dissertation Award, and a John F. Kennedy School of Government Joseph Crump Fellowship.
Such support does not constitute an endorsement by those institutions or the National Bureau of
Economic Research of the views expressed in this paper.
1998 by Richard G. Newell, Adam B. Jaffe and Robert N. Stavins. All rights reserved. Short
sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided
that full credit, including notice, is given to the source.
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The Induced Innovation Hypothesis
and Energy-Saving Technological Change
Richard G. Newell, Adam B. Jaffe
and Robert N. Stavins
NBER Working Paper No. 6437
March 1998
ABSTRACT
It follows from Hicks induced innovation hypothesis that rising energy prices in the last two
decades should have induced energy-saving innovation. We formulate the hypothesis concretely
using a product-characteristics model of energy-using consumer durables, augmenting Hicks
hypothesis to allow for the possibility that government efficiency standards also induce innovation.
Through estimation of characteristics transformation surfaces, we find that technological change
reduced the total capital and operating costs of air conditioning by one-half and water heating by
about one-fifth. Although the rateof overall innovation in these products appears to be independent
of energy prices and regulations, the evidence suggests that the directionof innovation has been
responsive to energy price changes. In particular, energy price increases induced innovation in a
direction that lowered the capital cost tradeoffs inherent in producing more energy-efficient products.
In addition, energy price changes induced changes in the subset of technically feasible models that
were offered for sale. Our estimates indicate that about one-quarter to one-half of the improvements
in mean energy-efficiency of the menu of new models for these products over the last two decades
were associated with rising energy prices since 1973. We also find that this responsiveness to price
changes increased substantially after product labeling requirements came into effect, and that
minimum efficiency standards had a significant positive effect on average efficiency levels.
Nonetheless, a sizeable portion of efficiency improvements in these technologies appears to have been
autonomous.
Richard G. Newell Adam B. Jaffe
Resources for the Future Department of Economics
1616 P Street, NW Brandeis University
Washington, DC 20036 Waltham, MA 02254
Robert N. Stavins
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University
79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
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