Lecture 4a

KATA

© 2016 The Leadership Network®

© 2016 Jidoka®

01

© Mike Rother / Improvement Kata Handbook

TOYOTA KATAPDCA toward theTarget Condition

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

02

NOW THAT YOU HAVE A TARGET CONDITION, HOW DO YOU GET THERE?

How to reach your goals when you

cannot see the road ahead?

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

03

The IK PREDICTION for the Experiment

ACTIONConduct the IKexperiment

EVALUATEStandardize or Adjust based on your learning

EVIDENCECollect facts and data resulting from the IK experiment

THEDEMINGCYCLE"Plan-Do-Check-Act"or"Plan-Do-Study-Act"

Dr. W. Edwards Deming“Itisnotnecessarytochange.Survivalisnotmandatory.”

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

04

Iterating toward the Target Condition with PDCA

Small,rapidPDCAsadvanceourknowledgethresholdquicklysowecanseeobstaclestotheTargetCondition

CurrentCondition

TargetCondition

First,youmustacceptthepathisunclearSomestepswillnotmakemeasureableimprovement.

SomestepswillmoveawayortothesideonthewaytotheTC.

FailedPDCAsoronesthatdon’tyieldimmediateimprovementcanbesomeofyourbiggestlearnings

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

05

© Mike Ro the r / Imp rovemen t Kata Handbook I te ra te Toward the Target Condition

WHATʼS THE THRESHOLD OF KNOWLEDGE (TOK)?It is the point at which you have no facts & data and start guessing

Thereʼs always a knowledge threshold,and itʼs closer than you think!You never know for sure how you are going to get there until you get there.

Uncertainty / Learning Zone

Next Target

Condition

Current KnowledgeThreshold

??

?

Condition

Now Where youwant to be

next

Where youare

Limit of whatyou currently

knowThe Goal

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

6

Since the path to a challenging goal canʼt be predicted withexactness, we have to find that path by experimenting like a scientist. With each step and insight a scientist may adjusthis or her thinking based on what has just been learned.The scientific process canʼt tell us what's ahead. It onlyconfirms or refutes the results of experiments.A trick to making effective progress toward a challengingtarget condition is not to try to decide the way forward, but toiterate your way forward by experimenting as cheaply andrapidly as possible. This is the action of innovation.

SCIENTIFIC THINKING MEANS LEARNING ALONG THE WAY TO THE TARGET CONDITION

Objective and certain:“We have made the right plan”

Always provisional:“Our plan is a hypothesis”

What we may thinkscientific thinking is

What scientific thinking really is


6

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

7

PDCAEXPERIMENTATIONISNOT ABOUTYOUDEVELOPINGAPLAN,ANDTHENEXECUTINGONTHATPLANTOPUTYOURPREDETERMINEDIDEASINPLACEAS

SOLUTIONS

PDCAEXPERIMENTATIONISABOUTYOUTAKINGSTEPSJUSTBEYONDYOURKNOWLEDGETHRESHOLDANDOUTSIDEYOUR“ZONEOFCERTAINTY”TOBETTERUNDERSTANDTHEPROCESSBETTERANDIDENTIFY

OBSTACLES.THESTEPSYOUTAKEARETHELEARNINGGOALSYOUEXPERIENCEASYOUITERATEYOURWAYTO

THETARGETCONDITION

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

8

'SURPRISE' IS HOW PDCA HELPS YOU LEARN AND IMPROVE

Learning happens when reality differs from expectation

Unexpected results (surprises) lead to valuable learning experiences. The Improvement Kata mindset seeks to use these lessons.A. The purpose of PDCA is to generate surprises and thus

opportunities for learning & progress toward the target condition.B. Using small failures as learning opportunities also develops the

improvement expertise of the learner.

PDCA Cycle s

Scenario2

2,4,8,16,32,______?

Writedownthenexttwonumbersinthisseries. Thenclick.Howdoyoufeel?

Scenario1

WritetheSumofa3diceroll______?

Rollthemandseeifyoursumwascorrect

-2,-4

Howdoyoufeel?....Notsobad,it’sjustchance

Hey!

© Mike Ro the r / Imp ro vemen t Kata Ha n dboo k

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

9

DIFFERENCEBETWEENTHESCENARIOSHoweasyorharditistospottheCurrentKnowledgeThreshold

• InRound1 withthedice,itwaseasytoseethatwedidn’tknowwhattheoutcomewouldbe.

• InRound2 theknowledgethresholdwasmoredifficulttosee.Wethoughtweknewtheanswer,sowewentoverthethreshold&answered.

ØWhatwouldbeagoodanswerinbothrounds?ØWhydon’twesaythat?

Yetinbothroundstheknowledgethresholdwasthesame:TherewerenofactsbeyondtheinitialsetupPredictableZone

CurrentKnowledgeThreshold

2,4,8,16,32,

© Mike Rother / Improvement Kata Handbook I terate Toward the Target Conditi on

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

10

VIDEO:Scientificthinking(3minutes)

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

11

WHAT SHOULD YOU DOAT THE THRESHOLD OF KNOWLEDGE?

1) Acknowledge it. (Difficult to do, until you get in the habit.) Key realization: Thereʼs always a threshold of knowledge.

2) Stop and see further by conducting an experiment. Donʼt deliberate over answers. Deliberate over the next experiment: What do we need to learn next, how will we test that and howwill we measure it?

The path canʼt be determined in advance through logic and debate

Uncertainty / Learning Zone

Next Target

Condition

Current KnowledgeThreshold

??

?

Condition

Now


Where youwant to be

next

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

12

Scientific thinking is the process you go through to disprove your theory and hypothesis. You should think of ways to refute what you believe to be true. When your results (evidence) differ from your expectations (predictions) reallearning happens – this is called prediction error, and is necessary to advance our exploration. If you set out to disprove your theories, then you cannot, then and only then, can you say “we must be getting at something really true!”

If your simply confirming what you already know or think to be true, you are engaging in prediction confirmation.

However, in traditional problem solving thinking, we do the opposite. We set out to prove our perceptions of reality are true. This stifles the innovation process. We analyze the process attempting to determine the root cause of where it breaks down, and then FIX IT!, and move on. But the law of entropy states that any system will deteriorate over time.

It’s the process of constantly striving for the Target Condition, reaching it, and then establishing where we want to be next (i.e. the next Target Condition) that fights entropy and fuels sustainment.

SO WHAT DOES SCIENTIFIC THINKING MEAN?

PredictionConfirmation=little learning

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

13

Learningthroughrefutedhypotheses

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

14

THREEKINDSOFKATAPDCAEXPERIMENTS

PDCA Cycle s

The following hierarchy goes from less to more scientific

1) Go and SeeDirect observation and data collection, without changinganything, to learn more about a process or situation.

2) Exploratory ExperimentIntroducing a change in a process to see, via direct observation, how the process reacts. Done to help better understand the process.Example: Try to run a process as specified in the targetcondition, to see where it fails and build your obstaclesparking lot. Often this is the first experiment.

3) Testing a HypothesisIntroducing a change, ideally in only a single factor, together with a prediction of what you expect to happen.

“If the result confirms the hypothesis, then you'vemade a measurement.If the result is contrary to the hypothesis, then you've made a discovery.”

~ Enrico Fermi

© Mike Ro th e r / Imp ro ve me n t Ka ta Ha n d b o o k

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

15

The Power of Rapid PDCAs

Time CapExProjectManagement

Kaizen(KZ)episodic

improvement

KZ1 KZ2KZ3

KZ4

TC4

cDiagramcontributedbyBillKraus,animatedbyBrandonBrown

TC3

TC2

TC1

Unsustainableimprovement

routine

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

16

VIDEO2:WorkingIteratively(3minutes)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0_yKBitO8MAlsoavailableontheIK/CKYouTubeChannel

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

17

Theunderlyingemotionthatkeepsusfromiteratingtoasolution

In the last video about the Marshmallow challenge what two emotions and psychological thinking do you think the business school graduates possess that the kindergarten graduates do not possess?

FEAR!....Fearoffailingdoesn’tenterintoourpsychethroughchildhood. Fearoffailingisbroughtonthroughyearsofpsychologicalpressuresplacedonusbyothers…Parents,Teachers,ourBoss(es).

Attitude…Workoratask=FUN!....Think backtoyourearlychildhoodandthegames,musicalinstruments,orsportsactivitiesyoulearned.Atthecoreofachild’spsycheistheperspectiveofaworktask,problem,orchallengeissomethingtowinorovercome.Mostadultsrarelyexpresstheirworktasks,problems,orchallengeswiththisperspective.

Nofearoffailingandanattitudeofstrivingtowardachallengeare

criticaltoPDCAsuccess

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

18

HOW DO CULTURES THINK DIFFERENTLY ABOUT PROBLEM SOLVING, PREDICTION

ERROR/CONFIRMATION AND PROGRESSING TOWARD THE TARGET CONDITION

Lee, F., Edmondson, A., Thomke, S., & Worline, M. (2004). The mixed effects of inconsistency on experimentation in organizations. Organization Science, 15(3), 310-326.

TheExperiment:Arugwasplaceoveraseriesofbuzzeralarmsanddifferentgroupswereaskedtocrosstherugwithoutsettingoffbuzzersinasetamountoftime.

FionaLee,PhD.AssociateProfessor ofManagementandOrganizations,MichiganRoss

PresentationatKataCon1,byDr.JefferyLiker,2/18/2015

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

19

RESULTS OF THE EXPERIMENT

Lee, F., Edmondson, A., Thomke, S., & Worline, M. (2004). The mixed effects of inconsistency on experimentation in organizations. Organization Science, 15(3), 310-326.

PresentationatKataCon1,byDr.JefferyLiker,2/18/2015,

Groups fromWesterncultures(fearfulofsettingoffbuzzers),failbecausetheystepacrosstherug,onesquareatatime,setoffabuzzer,andthenreturntostartingpoint sotheycansketchwherethebuzzersare….Andrepeatuntiltimerunsout.

Groups fromEasterncultures(more likelytotakerisks),succeedbecausetheywalkallthewayacrosstherug, settingoffbuzzerswhilelooking backatthepattern.Thenreturntothestartingpoint….Andrepeatuntiltheyfindapathwithoutbuzzers.

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

20

1. Theyseldomfeeldisconnectedfromthechallengethatfirstengagedtheirinterest.PeoplewholovewhattheydoneverfullylosesightoftheChallengeandthesenseofpurposethatdrivesthem.

2. They’reremarkablywell-attunedtothe“earlyyears.”Cognitivesciencetellsusthatallofus”confabulate”memorytovaryingdegrees(thatis,ourbrainsreconstructmemoriescombiningshardsofwhatactuallyhappenedwithbitsandpiecesofimaginedrealities).They’vesuccessfullyintegratedelementsofthosepassionsintowhattheydo.Ineffect,they’reenergizedkidswiththeseasonedperspectiveofadults.

3. Theyare“portfolio”thinkers.Peoplewanttobearoundpeoplewhoarepassionateaboutwhattheydo,becauseit’saninfectiousfeelingthatpsychologistscall“psychosocialcontagions”.Theyareeven-keeled;nevertohigh,nevertoolow.

4. Theyliveinthenow.The“now”forsomeonewholoveswhattheydoisprecious,becauseitcandisappearinaheartbeat

5. Theynever,everlimittheirvisiontoservetheinterestsofpettycompetition.StephenCoveyfamouslysaid(paraphrasing),highlyeffectivepeopledon’tseethe“pie”ashavingalimitednumberofpieces.Instead,theyseeapiewithpiecesenoughforeveryone,anditdoesn’tbotherthemtowatchothersgettheirslice.

AKeyConceptaboutPDCAs,TargetConditionsandChallenges:Peoplethatlovetheirjobandarepassionate

aboutChallenges…..

CitationfromForbesMagazine,“10ReasonsWhySomePeopleLoveWhatTheyDo”byDavidDiSalvohttp://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2012/08/28/10-reasons-why-some-people-love-what-they-do

KATA


© 2016 Jidoka®

21

6. Theywillstay…butjustknow,they’llalsoleave. Ifacompanyorfirmornonprofit—whatever—ceasestoprovideanadequatevenuefordoingwhattheylovetodo(i.e.faceChallenges),thenit’stimetomoveon.

7. Theywon’tbestopped.Whenamanagersays,insomanywords,“thisisyourroleinmyplan,andfailuretofillitwillhavenegativeconsequences,”thesmartpersonusuallyobliges,atleasttemporarily.Butthepassion-drivepersonbentondoingwhattheylove(i.e.faceChallenges)isalreadyfiguringouthowtoblowthewallsoffthatplanandmoveon.

8. Theydrawpeopletothemwithouteventrying.JohnC.Maxwell‘sLawofMagnetismsays“successbreadssuccess”and“peopledrawtowinners”

9. Theydon’tcarewhatyouthink.Peoplewhogenuinelylovewhattheydo(i.e.faceChallenges)don’tallowotherstotalkthemoutofit.

10.Theyarebornsuccessionplanners.Peoplewholovetheirjobsembracesuccessionplanningwholeheartedlyandactivelylookforotherstosharetheirpassionswith,inhopesthatthey’llwanttodothatjobonedayaswell. Thesefolksaren’tdoingthisbecausethecompanyhandbooktellsthemto– theydoitbecausetheylovewhattheydo,andthatpassioncompelsthemtosharetheirknowledgeandacumenwithothers.

CitationfromForbesMagazine,“10ReasonsWhySomePeopleLoveWhatTheyDo”byDavidDiSalvohttp://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2012/08/28/10-reasons-why-some-people-love-what-they-do

AKeyConceptaboutPDCAs,TargetConditionsandChallenges:Peoplethatlovetheirjobandarepassionate

aboutChallenges…..

Lecture 4a

Business

Transcript of Lecture 4a