Lecture 4April 12, 2012

Project Research- to begin the discussion

Research Process

1. Decide on project/team2. Allocation of Responsibility3. Create hypotheses4. Secondary Research

5. Primary Research6. Analysis7. Write-up

For Innovation ProjectsConsider Product Development Process

Phase 1 Market NeedsTechnology AvailabilityPeople skillsCan it be made?

Decision to go to next step

Phase 2Team formationSystems designSystems Partition

Decision to go to the next step

Phase 3 Detailed designSoftware Hardware

Phase 4Systems integration and test

Phase 5 transfer to manufacturing and support

Phase 6

Some Hypotheses Subjects• Initial Examples

– Eng Development is well focused on primary product• Clear answers• Right number of projects

– Projects are well-thought though in terms of Business Environment (no tunnel vision)

– There is a well-understood process for introducing new products– There is a phase gate process– Company has competitive advantage in the technology they are

pursuing– Work is scheduled so that engineers have time to finish

product/project (tight but realistic)• History of accomplishment

– Marketing and manufacturing tied into Development process– Whole organization understands the company mission

• After Hearing CEO Consider modification

Secondary Research

• Where to find it?– Google, Internet– Patent search – find alternatives, competitors– Scientific Publications search– Current Events related to technology

• Economist, newspapers– Research key components separately– Stock market/financial stmt analysis– Industry journals– Use Caltech Research librarian– Check out imitators – tag-along industries– Company news release– Consultant reports – ask Library for help,

reimbursement available

Primary research

• Customers

• Alumni contacts

• Industry analyst

• Company itself – start with CEO– CFO, Marketing, R&D -> (Manager and

Engineer), HR- entry point should

• Company’s competitors

Interviewing techniques• How many people? At least 2• Try to have same team going to each one• How fast should you recap? Right away• Break up roles:

– Recorder, also can record it– Person asking questions– Observer – note body-language, come up with addtl questions

• Go in with a script – questions want to answer– Update based on results before next one

• Inform them also what you want to ask about• Work around their schedule• Telephone interview – or video conference also option• Freeconference.com 605-475-4333 access 482708• Ask them who else you should speak to• Follow up with thank-you e-mail, that evening

Choice A Technology Analysis

S-curve analysisDelphi (consulting “wise people”)

experienced veteranssuccessful caltech startupsinvestorsconsultantsgovernmentjournalists and blogistspeople being displacedanalogous situationprofessors

Trend extrapolationScenario developmentReasoning from analogy (the experience of similar technology innovations in similar markets)comparing with technology development models and norms.Your own techniques

S curve analyses• Where are you on the curve

– Number of competitors (growing, shrinking, static)– Rate of increase in technology capability– Rate of increase in sales/number of customers– Number of Publications– Market growth– History of predictions in this space

• Five years off• Key markets

T

Trend ExtrapolationW

hat

ever ?

Delphi

• Choice of “experts” who are they?– Industry analyst, Professor, Blogger, Senior Scientist

• Distribution• Writings• Interviews• Triangulation/ Correlation• Voice in the wilderness• Listen to Assumptions• Groupthink- your own judgment