Business Research Methods William G. Zikmund

Lecture -3

N.P. SinghProfessorManagement Development InstituteMehrauli Road, Sukhrali- Gurgaon 122007-2

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Why do Research?To get Information It will help Reducing uncertaintyHelps focus decision making

Types of Research CategoriesQualitative Research Quantitative ResearchCategoriesExploratoryDescriptiveCausal

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Qualitative & QualitativeQuantitativeQualitativeObjective is to test hypotheses that theresearcher generates.Objective is to discover and encapsulatemeanings once the researcher becomesimmersed in the data.Concepts are in the form of distinctvariablesConcepts tend to be in the form of themes,motifs, generalizations, and taxonomies.However, the objective is still to generateconcepts.Measures are systematically createdbefore data collection and arestandardized as far as possible; e.g. measures of job satisfaction.Measures are more specific and may bespecific to the individual setting orresearcher; e.g. a specific scheme of valuesData are in the form of numbers fromprecise measurement.Data are in the form of words fromdocuments, observations, and transcripts.However, quantification is still used inqualitative research.

Qualitative & QualitativeQuantitativeQualitativeTheory is largely causal and isdeductive.Theory can be causal or non-causal and isoften inductive.Procedures are standard, and replication is assumed.Research procedures are particular, andreplication is difficult. Analysis proceeds by using statistics,tables, or charts and discussing howthey relate to hypotheses. Analysis proceeds by extracting themes orgeneralizations from evidence andorganizing data to present a coherent,consistent picture. These generalizationscan then be used to generate hypotheses/ propositions.

Types Of ResearchExploratory ResearchDescriptive ResearchCausal Research

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COMPLETELYCERTAINABSOLUTEAMBIGUITYCAUSAL ORDESCRIPTIVEEXPLORATORYUncertainty Influences The Type Of Research

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Degree of Problem DefinitionPossible SituationsExploratory (Unaware of Problem)Descriptive Research(Aware of Problem)Causal Research(Problem Clearly Defined)Our sales are declining and we dont know whyWhat kind of people are buying our product? Who buys our competitors product?Will buyers purchase more of our products in a new package?Would people be interested in our new product idea?What features do buyers prefer in our product?Which of two advertising campaigns is more effective?

Exploratory ResearchIt has goal of formulating problems more precisely, classifying concepts, gathering explanations, gaining insight, eliminating impractical ideas.It may develop hypothesis but does not seek to test them.Initial research conducted to clarify and define the nature of a problemDoes not provide conclusive evidenceSubsequent research expected

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Descriptive ResearchDiscovers or Describes characteristics of a population or phenomenonSome understanding of the nature of the problem.It seeks to determine the answers to the questions who, what, when, where, and how. It does not tell us why. Although it is impossible to completely eliminate error, this type of research should be conducted as accurately as possible because, unlike exploratory research, the evidence it provides will be used to determine a course of action.

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Examples Do teachers hold favorable attitudes toward using computers in schools? What kinds of activities that involve technology occur in sixth-grade classrooms and how frequently do they occur? What have been the reactions of school administrators to technological innovations in teaching the social sciences? How have high school computing courses changed over the last 10 years?How do the new multi-mediated textbooks compare to the print-based textbooks? How are decisions being made about using Channel One in schools, and for those schools that choose to use it, how is Channel One being implemented?

ExamplesWhat is the best way to provide access to computer equipment in schools? How should instructional designers improve software design to make the software more appealing to students? To what degree are special-education teachers well versed concerning assistive technology? Is there a relationship between experience with multimedia computers and problem-solving skills? How successful is a certain satellite-delivered Spanish course in terms of motivational value and academic achievement? Do teachers actually implement technology in the way they perceive? How many people use the AECT gopher server, and what do they use if for?

Descriptive ResearchIt is of two typesLongitudinal Research: It is a time series analysis that makes repeated measurements of the same individuals. This allows researchers to monitor behavior of individuals such as brand switching. They are not necessarily representative. Cross Sectional Research: In this case a researcher sample the population to make measurement at a given point in time.

Longitudinal StudiesTrend study looks at population characteristics over time, e.g. organizational absenteeism rates during the course of a year;Cohort study traces a sub-population over time, e.g. absenteeism rates for the sales department;Panel study traces the same sample over time, e.g. graduate career tracks over the period 1990 - 2000 for the same starting cohort.

Trend Studies: Longitudinal research in which an investigator samples randomly from a population over time, with different individuals constituting each sampleVarieties of Longitudinal Research

The IssueHow widespread is youth suicide?It is a significant issues, particularly in some ethnic groups.

Example: Trends Over TimeQuestion: How many students have suicide ideation in the state of Vermont? What is the pattern over time.Method: In a trend study, Vermont studied middle- and high-school students regarding their thoughts of suicide since 1995.

Results: Over 20% of students claimed to have made a plan for suicide in 1995, but the number declined over the next decade to just over 10%. There was also a decline in the number of students who required medical treatment.Example: Trends Over Time

Example: Trends Over TimeResults of Vermont trend study on suicidal ideation

Example: Trends Over TimeConclusion A troublesome number of students think of suicide, although the percentage declined between 1995 and 2005. It would be wise for the state to think about interventions to prevent suicides.

Cohort Study: A type of longitudinal research in which an investigator randomly samples from a population selected on the basis of specific characteristics.The Nurses Health Study began in 1976 as a simple questionnaire study.The NHS now involves about 122,000 nurses and collects data on lifestyle and diseases, and it includes samples like blood and tumor tissues.Varieties of Longitudinal Research

Definition of Cohort Study Analytical study in which a group having one or more similar characteristics (such as habit of smoking or a particular disease) is closely monitored over time simultaneously with another group (whose member do not smoke or are free from the disease). Although more tedious, this method is used where case study approach is not feasible, creates too many statistical problems, or generally produces unreliable results.

Two type of Cohort StudyProspective Study: The water source in your town is contaminated with radioactive material during a terrorist attack. A prospective cohort study is conducted, and the cohort is followed over time to determine if any illnesses occur in people who were exposed compared to people who were not exposed. Relative risk needs to be calculated in order to determine the presence of an association between the radioactive material and the illness. Retrospective Study: Recently in Mudville, a train derailment resulted in a large chlorine spill. It is suspected the spill is having a residual impact on the residents of Mudville.It is necessary to know if people living within radius "X" of the spill have a higher risk of respiratory symptoms than those living outside of "X." A random sample of town residents is categorized into an exposed group (within the "X" radius) and an unexposed group (outside the "X" radius). Once they are categorized based on exposure status, they are asked about various respiratory symptoms they may be experiencing. Relative risk is calculated to determine if proximity to the spill is associated with current respiratory symptoms.

Cohort-Sequential SamplesA type of longitudinal research in which an investigator repeated measures a cohort group (e.g., people 60 years of age) over time, adding a new cohort (e.g., new 60-year olds) in each wave in order to differentiate age effects and cohort effects.Varieties of Longitudinal Research

Question: When children begin using alcohol, does their consumption increase over time?Method: In a cohort-sequential design, investigate the alcohol intake of different age groups, following a group of 6th grade, 7th grade, and 8th grade children over three years.Varieties of Longitudinal Research

Varieties of Longitudinal ResearchResult: Among children using alcohol, as they get older, their alcohol use increases in similar ways.Conclusion: When children use alcohol early (e.g., in the sixth grade), their consumption increases in consistent ways.

Results of cohort-sequential study on alcohol use in childrenVarieties of Longitudinal Research

Source: Bray, J. H., Adams, G. J., Getz, J. G., &Baer, P. E. (2001). Developmental, family, and ethnic influences on adolescent alcohol usage: A growth curve approach. Journal of Family Psychology, 15 301-314. Copyright 2001 by the American Psychological Association. Adapted with permission.

Examples of Cohort AnalysisIn many businesses, repeat purchase behavior is a key driver of value. Many companies track % of repeat purchases as a key business metric. This is useful in steady state, but can sometimes be quite misleading if the company is showing substantial growth. By definition, growth implies many first time customers, and the mix of these new customers can distort the view into how much repeat purchase behavior is actually occurring.It is preferred to analyze repeat purchase behavior, and hence, estimate lifetime value, by doing cohort analysis

Varieties of Longitudinal ResearchPanel StudiesA type of longitudinal research in which an investigator studies the same individuals over time.The most famous panel study is Lewis Termans study of gifted children that began in the 1920s and continues today, although the few people still alive are quite old.A more typical example involved a study of bullying that lasted one year, with data collected in three waves (Bond et al., 2001)

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The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) has investigated student performance in different subjects for over three decadesExamination of reading, math, and science scores, results suggest that compared to the 1970s, todays students score comparably or better much of the time, although scores have fluctuated over the years.Controversy: Student Achievement

ExampleThere is a common notion that beer drinkers are, on average, more 'obese' than either nondrinkers or drinkers of wine or spirits. This is reflected, for example, by the expression 'beer belly'. However, the few studies on the association between consumption of beer and abdominal obesity produced inconsistent results. Need to examine the relation between beer intake and waist-hip ratio (WHR) and body mass index (BMI) in a beer-drinking population.

exampleA national survey was conducted In a country in 1966 to Assess the Prevalence of smoking, and attitudes and Beliefs towards the use of Tobacco and other related variables. The Questionnaire included, Among others, questions on the following topics:Smoking behavior (past and pre- sent); attempts to stop and/or cut down cigarette smoking; self-estimation of future smoking behavior; beliefs about ability to change, and willingness to change; rationale for cigarette smoking behavior; attitudes and beliefs about smoking as a health hazard in general, and to respondents in particular; gratification derived from smoking; and social pressures for continuation or cessation

Causal ResearchConducted to identify cause and effect relationships

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Identifying CausalityA causal relationship is impossible to prove. Evidence of causality:The appropriate causal order of eventsConcomitant variation--two phenomena vary togetherAn absence of alternative plausible explanations

Basic Research Design ComparedExploratoryDescriptiveCausalObjectivesGather background information , define terms, clarify problems, establish research prioritiesDescribe & Measure marketing phenomena, characteristics, or functions of interestEstablish causality, develop if-then statements CharacteristicsRelatively simple, versatile, and flexible; often the first phase of a multiple research design; unstructuredPrior formulation of specific hypothesis ; pre-planned and structured designManipulation of one or more independent variables; preplanned and structured design; control of other mediating variablesMethodsSecondary data analysis, Qualitative data based Research, Expert Surveys, Pilot SurveySecondary as well primary data based research; Surveys, Panels, observational & other methodsExperiments:LaboratoryFieldTest marketingResults/ FindingTentativeConclusiveConclusive

Examples-1Establishing the functional relationship between advertising and sales.

AnswerCausal research. Establishing the functional relationship between advertising and sales is the projects goal. It attempts to predict what would happen to sales if a change in advertising occurred. After the causal variable is manipulated, the researcher observes the effect on sales.

Example -iiInvestigating reactions to the idea of a new method of defense budgeting.

AnswerExploratory research. This study will portray the initial reaction of citizens to this new method. The how question is explored. Depending on the nature of the problem definition, this study could be descriptive.

Example -IIIIdentifying target market demographics for a shopping center.

AnswerDescriptive research. This study portrays the characteristics of the population who will buy what is identified.

Example-ivEstimating prices for IBM stock two years in the future.

AnswerDescriptive research. This research attempts to describe the future behavior of a particular corporations stock price. (Possibly causal research if there is an attempt made to establish a functional relationship between stock price and some other variable, say, disposable personal income.)

Example -vLearning how many organizations are actively involved in just-in-time production.

AnswerThe phrase how many seems to indicate that this is a descriptive study requiring a simple tabulation based on an investigation of information in the library or perhaps information from a survey.

However, what design would be used if the question were rephrased to be learning how organizations are involved in just-in-time production. This minor rephrasing suggests the study might begin with an exploratory study to learn exactly how American companies utilize the just-in-time production method of distribution and logistics that got its start in Japan

Example -viLearning the extent of job satisfaction in a company.

AnswerThis is a descriptive study that will more than likely require a standardized job satisfaction questionnaire.

Stages of the Research Process

Problem Discoveryand Definition

ResearchDesign

Sampling

DataGathering

Data Processingand Analysis

Conclusions andReport

Discovery andDefinition

and so on

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Research StagesCyclical process - conclusions generate new ideasStages can overlap chronologicallyStages are functionally interrelatedForward linkagesBackward linkages

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Problemdiscovery

Problem definition(statement ofresearch objectives)Secondary(historical)dataExperiencesurveyPilotstudyCasestudy

Selection ofexploratory researchtechnique

Selection ofbasic researchmethod

Experiment

Survey

ObservationSecondaryData Study

LaboratoryFieldInterviewQuestionnaire

Selection ofexploratory researchtechnique

SamplingProbabilityNon-probability

Collection ofdata(fieldwork)Editing andcodingdataDataprocessingInterpretationoffindingsReportDataGatheringDataProcessingandAnalysisConclusionsand Report

Research DesignProblem Discoveryand Definition

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The Business Research Process

Problem Discovery

Exploratory Research

Selection of the Basic Research Method

Selection of Sample Design

Collection of the Data

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The Research Process (cont.)

Editing and Coding

Data Processing

Interpretation of the Findings

Report

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Stages In The Research ProcessProblem Discovery and Problem DefinitionResearch DesignSamplingData GatheringData Processing and AnalysisConclusions And Report

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