*E. J. Peters Lecture 2: Natural Hazard and Disaster Management

History of natural hazards disasters in the Caribbean

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*E. J. PetersHazardHazard: A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation.

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*E. J. PetersHazardsHazards can include latent conditions that may represent future threats. They can be natural in origin (geological, hydro-meteorological and biological) and/or induced by human processes (environmental degradation and technological hazards). Hazards can be single, sequential or combined in their origin and effects. Each hazard is characterized by its location, intensity and probability.

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Natural hazards such as flood, fire, earthquake, tornado, and windstorms affect thousands of people every year. We need to know what our risks are from natural hazards and take sensible precautions to protect ourselves, our families, and our communities.Naturally occurring phenomenonPotential danger to life and property

Natural Hazard

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*E. J. PetersNatural disasterA natural disaster is the consequence of the combination of a natural hazard (a physical event e.g. volcanic eruption, earthquake, landslide) and human activities.

Associated with great losses and sufferingHumanEconomic

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Natural disaster*E. J. Peters

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*E. J. PetersMt. Pinatuba eruption 1991Resulted in el nino la nina effectImpacted on air traffic for years

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*E. J. PetersCatastrophe

An event resulting in great loss and misfortune

ISO defines a catastrophe as an event that causes $25 million or more in insured property losses and affects a significant number of property/casualty policyholders and insurers.

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*E. J. PetersThe Caribbean and disastersMost disaster victims live in developing countries, where poverty and population pressures force growing numbers of people to live in harm's way. Read:An Increasing Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

By KofiA.Annan

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The 1902 eruption-: Mt.Pelee (source USGS)

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May 7, 1902:Volcanic eruption buries Caribbean cityOn this day in 1902, Martinique's Mount Pele begins the deadliest volcanic eruption of the 20th century. The following day, the city of Saint Pierre, which some called the Paris of the Caribbean, was virtually wiped off the map.

Mount Pele, the name meaning bald in French, was a 4,500-foot mountain on the north side of the Caribbean island of Martinique. On April 2, 1902, new steam vents were spotted on the peak, which overlooked the port city of Saint Pierre. Three weeks later, tremors were felt on the island and Mount Pele belched up a cloud of ash. Caught up in the midst of an important election, residents of Saint Pierre failed to heed the mountain's warnings and evacuate. The nearby residents mistakenly believed that the only danger from the volcano was lava flow and that if lava started to flow, they would have plenty of time to flee to safety. In fact, some people came from outside the city to view the action, even after ash from the eruption began to block roads. On May 7, activity on the volcano increased dramatically and the blasts grew significantly stronger. Overnight, there were several strong tremors and a cloud of gas with a temperature of more than 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit spilled out of the mountain. Finally, a tremendous blast in the early morning hours sent an avalanche of boiling ash down the side of the mountain. The city of Saint Pierre was buried within minutes and virtually everyone died instantly. There were only two reported survivors--one was a prisoner held in an underground cell. Legend has it that he went on to be a circus attraction. In addition, 15 ships in the harbor were capsized by the eruption. One ship managed to stay afloat with half the crew surviving, although most suffered serious burns. Vulcanologists are still unsure about exactly what causes volcanic eruptions and how they can be predicted.

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Readinghttps://suite101.com/a/1902-eruption-of-mt-pelee-west-indies-a74962

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Montserrat volcano*E. J. Peters

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Montserrat

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How are volcanoes formed?*E. J. Peters

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Impacts*E. J. Peters

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Impacts*E. J. Peters

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Soufriere St. Vincent*E. J. PetersPhotograph by Richard Fiske, April 22, 1979

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St Vincent- Suofriere*E. J. Peters

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St Vincent1979 EruptionExplosions and lava extrusion accompanied the last eruption of the volcano in 1979.Powerful explosions from Soufrire in April 1979 produced large ash clouds and pyroclastic avalanches, forcing the evacuation of more than 17,000 persons from the northern end of St. Vincent. The largest hot pyroclastic avalanche flowed down the Larikai River valley 14 April 1979 and continued several kilometers out to sea. A lava dome grew in the crater until late October 1979.

2005 Sulphurous OdoursIn February 2005 sulphurous odours and haze was reported on the island of St. Vincent and as far as the Grenadines 50-75 km south. This resulted from changes in wind patterns rather than increased gas output

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St. Vincent eruptions1979, 1971-72, 1902-03, 1880, 1814, 1812, 1784, 1718. 1640 50, 1550 50, 1480 150, 1395 75, 1325 75, 905 AD 75, 530 BC 75, 750 BC 100, 1600 BC 75, 2020 BC 75, 2135 BC 50, 2200 BC 150, 2310 BC 100, 2380 BC 100. http://www.volcanolive.com/stvincent.html

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Damage after the 1902 eruption, St. Vincent

*E. J. PetersReading: The eruption of Soufrire volcano, St Vincent April-June 1979 J. B. Shepherd, W. P. Aspinall, K. C. Rowley, J. Pereira, H. Sigurdsson, R. S. Fiske, J. F. Tomblin

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Earthquakes -Jamaica*E. J. Petershttp://jamaica-gleaner.com/pages/history/story001.html

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Port Royal before and after 1692*E. J. Peters

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Impacts to humans*E. J. Peters

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Impact -tourism*E. J. PetersSource:http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=jamaica+earthquake+1692&qpvt=jamaica+earthquake+1692&FORM=IGRE#view=detail&id=6C9397FB5AF7331961C9A1D3778C8204B958405F&selectedIndex=31

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Earthquake Haiti 2010A Haitian man tries to rescue a live teacher trapped amid the rubble of the earthquake as he crawls past a schoolgirl that died at Ecole St. Gerard on January 14, 2010 in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. (Photo by Carol A man uses a sledgehammer to try and break through the rubble in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on Tuesday, January 19. Haitian authorities have recorded 72,000 deaths so far. source CNN

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Earthquake impacts*E. J. PetersDamage to infrastructure/buildingssuffering

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Discuss some of the social impacts*E. J. Peters

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Hurricanes and tropical storms*E. J. Peters

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Grenada after Ivan 2004*E. J. Peters 2014

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2013 Xmas storm SVG *E. J. Peters

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St Vincent 2013E. J. Peters 2014*

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Impacts Xmas St Vincent 2013

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Reading available on the server*E. J. Peters

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*E. J. PetersRisks indiciesIn order to improve understanding of the relationship between developmentand disaster risk at the global level, UNDP has begun development of aDisaster Risk Index (DRI).

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*E. J. PetersA considerable incentive for rethinking disaster risk as an integral part of the development process comes from the aim of achieving the goals laid out in the Millennium Declaration. The Declaration sets forth a road map for human development supported by 191nations. Eight Millennium Development Goals were agreed upon in 2000, which in turn have been broken down into 18 targets with 48 indicators for progress.Most goals are set for achievement by 2015.The MDGs contain cross-cutting themes in development and disaster risk policy, each tied to specific targets and indicators for progress.

Disaster Risk and the Millennium Development Goals

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Disaster Risk and the MDGs

Eight Millennium Development Goals were agreed upon in 2000, which in turn have been broken down into 18 targets with 48 indicators for progress.Most goals are set for achievement by 2015.The MDGs contain cross-cutting themes in development and disaster risk policy, each tied to specific targets and indicators for progress.

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Future natural catastrophes where would they come from?*E. J. Peters

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*E. J. PetersWhat makes SIDS vulnerable?The extent of their vulnerability is determined by the frequency and impact of shocks and their resource base (resilience) to withstand those shocks

susceptibility to natural disasters Remoteness and isolation,limited diversification, poverty and limited capacity

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*E. J. PetersRiskThe chance that harm will actually occur

a hazard exists where an object (or substance) or situation has a built-in ability to cause an adverse effect. Risk, on the other hand, is the chance that such effects will occur: the risk can be high or negligible

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*E. J. PetersQuantifying risksLIKELIHOOD is expressed as either a frequency or a probability. Frequency is a measure of the rate at which events occur over time (e.g., events/year, incidents/year, deaths/year, etc.). Probability is a measure of the rate of a possible event expressed as a fraction of the total number of events (e.g., one-in-a-million, 1/1,000,000, or 1X10-3). CONSEQUENCE is the direct effect of an event, incident or accident. It is expressed as a health effect (e.g., death, injury, exposure), property loss, environmental effect, evacuation, or quantity spilled.

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*E. J. PetersRiskRisk = Hazards x Vulnerability

CapacityRisk: The probability of harmful consequences, or expected loss (of lives, people injured, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or human induced hazards and vulnerable/capable conditions.

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*E. J. PetersDifferent views of risk analysisQUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS incorporates numerical estimates of frequency or probability and consequence. In practice a sophisticated analysis of risk requires extensive data which are expensive to acquire or often unavailable. Fortunately few decisions require sophisticated quantification of both frequency and consequences. RELATIVE RISK ANALYSIS means that a risk is evaluated in comparison to another risk. The type of risk analysis used should be appropriate for the available data and to the exposure, frequency and severity of potential loss

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*E. J. PetersDealing with risksHazard analysisSpecific riskAcceptable riskRisk assessment /analysisRisk reductionRisk management

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*E. J. PetersAnalysis /AssessmentHAZARD ANALYSIS is the identification of material properties, system elements or events that lead to harm or loss. The term hazard analysis may also include evaluation of consequences from an event or incident. RISK ANALYSIS is the study of risk in order to understand and quantify risk so it can be managed.

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*E. J. PetersNatural disasters in the Caribbean

DiscussionReading:

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Assignment:Find and the paper by Kofi Anan

Look for the main components in computing DRI

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