Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

21

Transcript of Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

Page 1: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation
Page 2: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

Corporate Summary

Page 3: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

3

Introduction: An Egyptian exporter

Split of sanitary ware and tiles1Split of domestic and export1

* All production facilities are owned and controlled by Lecico

Alexandria

KhorshidBorg El-Arab

Cairo

Established 1997

Sanitary ware capacity

2.0 million pcs 2005

4.4 million pcs end 2007

Tiles capacity

6.4 million m2 mid – 2011

12.8 million m2 mid – 2013

Brassware capacity

0.3 million pcs mid – 2010

Borg El-Arab

Established 1975

Sanitary ware capacity

2.5 million pcs 2005

1.8 million pcs (inc FC) end 2008

Tiles capacity

17.0 million m2 2005

21.4 million m2 mid - 2007

Khorshid

Established 1959

Sanitary ware capacity:

350,000 pcs 2007

Tiles capacity

1.1 million m2 2005

Kfarchima

Kfarchima Beirut

Lecico Egypt S.A.E. – one of the world’s largest sanitary ware

producers – was founded in 1959 and has been majority owned by

the Gargour family since 1969

The company has a global competitive advantage making European

quality sanitary ware at Egyptian costs

c45% of Lecico’s sanitary ware sales volume is exported to Europe

Lecico finished expansions in sanitary ware in 2007 which boosted

capacity to 6.5m pieces of sanitary ware and fired clay

In Summer 2010, Lecico began brassware production with a 300,000

piece per annum capacity factory

In 2011 Lecico opened a new tile factory in Borg El Arab which

reached 12.8m sqm capacity in 2013 (Total tile capacity 35m sqm)

In mid-2014, Lecico faced a 133% increase in gas prices driving a

20% increase in production costs

Note: (1) FY 2015 3

Page 4: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

A major sanitary ware exporter

Page 5: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

5

A major sanitary ware exporter to Europe

Growth in group’s exports

Export focus on Europe

• Sanitary ware export volumes grew at 1.9% CAGR (2005-2015)

• Sharp slowdown in Middle East exports in 2014 onwards

• Average of over 75% of exports are to Western Europe

• Percentage has risen in the last two years as Middle Eastern

markets have weakened and regional competition increased

Lecico’s total export volumes (sanitary ware) Egypt’s leading sanitary ware exporter

Europe as percentages of total exports Growth of Lecico brand sanitary ware market share in UK

• Lecico exports c56% of its sales vs. 20% for local peers

• Lecico sells to over 50 countries (including OEM sales)

• Approximately 26% of exports (15% of sanitary ware

sales volumes) are for other brands

• Lecico represents over 50% of Egypt’s sanitary ware

exports with the balance split among 9 manufacturers

• UK estimated c16% market share in Lecico-branded sales

• A further c3% market share in OEM and white label sales to

the UK

Page 6: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

6

Significant cost advantage

International cost advantage

Lecico produces sanitary ware at an all-in average cost of US$14.00/piece

– In Egypt, manufacturing cost averages US$10.75/piece of sanitary ware

– The difference reflects higher packing costs for EU-destined exports and significantly higher industrial cost in Lebanon

– Costs have risen in the past few years due to energy cost inflation in 2014 and reduced production utilisation

– Our information suggests other low cost producers’ manufacturing cost averages US$15-30/piece

– While European producers average US$30+/piece depending on their market

Why is Lecico able to produce so competitively?

– Egypt: Low energy costs, low labour cost, low investment costs, low effective taxes

– Size: Economies of scale, standard global plant size: 1m pieces

– Experience: Over 50 years manufacturing experience

– Efficiency: Production per employee is over twice that of our local competitors

Investment, distribution and overheads benefit from regional economies of scale

– Sanitary ware investment cost approx US$30-40/piece vs. US$35-55/piece global standard

– Low shipping cost to Europe: US$1.50 per sanitary ware piece vs. approx US$6+ for Asian manufactures

Page 7: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

Cost increases and tile overcapacity

Page 8: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

Energy price increases add LE 200 million in costs…

Item Increase Impact

Natural Gas 133% from USD 3.0/mbtu to USD 7.0/mbtu 70% of energy costs, energy is 20% of cogs

Electricity 33% from EGP 0.33/KwH to EGP 0.42/KwH 30% of energy costs, energy is 20% of cogs

Diesel petrol 64% from EGP 1.10/ltr to EGP 1.80/ltr All goods and materials will face inflation

Cheapest (80 Octane) petrol 78% from EGP 0.90/ltr to EGP 1.60/ltr General inflation in Egypt

In July 2014, the government announced an massive increase in energy prices which will have a

profound effect on Lecico’s financials:

Lecico estimates that these changes increase cost by at least LE 200 million per year:

– Change raise COGs to about LE 200 million assuming volumes unchanged and no improvement in production/cost structure

– Approximately LE 11 (USD 1.55) extra cost per piece of sanitary ware (c 30% of the LE 200 million plus increase in costs)

– Approximately LE 4 (USD 0.55) extra cost per square meter (c 70% of the LE 200 million increase in costs)

– In 2H 14 and 1H 15, Unit cost increases have matched forecasts despite significant squeeze on volumes as a result of:

– Better energy recuperation and continued efficiency/de-bottlenecking improvements

The additional LE 200 million in costs is more than our annualised profit

– Net profit for the 12 months from 3Q13-2Q14 was LE 120.1 million

On average Lecico needs around a 15% price increase to cover the cost inflation

– By segment we need a 9% increase in sanitary ware and a 20% increase in tiles average group consolidated prices

– This would only absorb costs and would still result in lower margins (%)

8

Page 9: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

…as tile oversupply hits prices, volumes and costs

Consumer demand in Egypt squeezed since 2H 14

– Consumer inflation squeezed spending on tiles and sanitary ware from 2H 2014 onwards with sales in Egypt falling 8% in 2015 year-on-year

and a further 6% in the first half of 2016

Egyptian tile exports down 46% in 1H 2016 (from a challenging 2015)

– The Middle East in general and Libya in particular have been sharply affected by regional instability

– Sales to Libya were down 62% year-on-year in 2015 and are down 51% year-on-year in the first half

– Overall, official government figures show around a 46% reduction in overall Egyptian tile exports year-on-year in 1H 2016.

Egyptian market facing surplus capacity of around 30% in tiles

– Informal data suggests that installed tile capacity in Egypt reached 490 million square meters per day while actual production is around 340

– Lecico Egypt tile sales were down 19% year-on-year in 2015 and down 8% year-on-year in 1H 2016

Increased price competition as manufacturers fight for market share

– Price competition and aggressive bargaining to shore up market share have been common since 2H 2015, forcing Lecico to reduce tile prices

– Lecico tile prices are down 6% comparing 1H 2016 to FY 2014 (vs. needed 20% to absorb July 2014 gas price hike)

– Lecico sanitary ware prices – boosted by export and not facing overcrowding in Egypt – are up 11% (vs. 9% need to absorb gas price hike)

Lower sales and production volumes – compounded by devaluation - have pushed up unit costs

– Unit costs have risen as Lecico has reduced production and the March 2016 devaluation of the pound pushed up imported and fx-linked inputs

– Lecico has mothballed 30% of tile capacity and 12% of sanitary ware capacity from the start of the year reducing fixed costs

– Lecico tile costs are up 40% comparing 1H 2016 to FY 2014 (EGP 8.1/sqm vs. the EGP 4.0 expected impact of gas alone)

– Lecico sanitary ware costs are up 12% comparing 1H 2016 to FY 2014 (EGP 24/piece vs. the EGP 11 expected impact of gas alone)

9

Page 10: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

Recovery plan: volumes, costs and capital control

These shocks have taken Lecico from its most profitable half (1H 14) to significant losses (2H 15 & 1H 16)

Recovery must come from higher sales volumes and better pricing – despite the environment

– Lecico is rolling out a number of plans to gain market share in Egypt, among them: introduce new distributors; expand direct retail sales

outlets; open Upper Egypt warehouse/distribution centre; limited period offers and promotions; increased PoS marketing and a planned social

media presence by end of 2016

– Lecico is pushing new export business in both tiles and sanitary ware. We expect an incremental 400k pieces of sanitary ware sales in 2017

– Lecico increased prices in Egypt in 2016 (around 8% on sanitary ware and 5% on tiles), effect in August but partially netted out by promotions

– However, price increases are challenging and may be reversed. Volume gains may be offset by reversals with other markets and customers.

The path to recovery is not a smooth or a short one.

Tactically, Lecico is cutting costs and managing cash flows

– Lecico plans to cut costs by LE 65 million per annum. Rolled out over 2016 with some costs associated (severance packages, write-offs, etc).

Effect in 2017.

– Lecico is targeting to reduce working capital and – in 1H16 – would have reduced working capital by around LE 10 million if not for the effect

of devaluation. Lecico succeeded in reducing inventory and increasing payables but receivables grew.

– For receivables, we introduced a payment-focused discount system in Egypt and are working on reducing payment terms with international

customers to try and bring down receivables in the second half of 2016.

– However, cost reductions may be offset by inflation, further devaluation, increased cost of money and new austerity measures. Working

capital improvement in an environment of over-capacity and price competition are difficult. Significant net reductions in costs and working

capital will take time and may face temporary reversals.

Lecico has had success in revenue growth and reducing losses quarter-on-quarter from 4Q 2015 and will

work to continue and accelerate this recovery in a difficult environment.

10

Page 11: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

Cost increase and slowdown since 2H14

11

Lecico Group

Sanitary Ware Analysis 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Volume (000's pieces)

Egypt 670 668 511 645 473 645 533 415 470 555 464 507 534 451

Lebanon 36 83 52 21 25 39 76 10 18 29 35 27 37 37

Exports 655 779 794 763 796 845 711 766 751 766 613 600 553 721

Total Volume 1,361 1,530 1,357 1,428 1,294 1,530 1,319 1,191 1,239 1,350 1,112 1,134 1,124 1,209

Average Selling Price 123.8 130.9 137.2 127.5 133.2 137.3 146.8 143.1 142.1 143.7 163.3 146.9 147.9 163.1

Revenue 168.5 200.3 186.1 182.0 172.4 210.1 193.6 170.5 176.0 194.0 181.6 166.5 166.3 197.1

Cost of Sales 134.9 157.9 143.9 139.2 130.0 154.4 165.3 143.0 134.3 157.5 140.9 149.8 133.7 156.9

Average Cost Per Piece 99.2 103.2 106.1 97.5 100.5 100.9 125.3 120.0 108.5 116.7 126.7 132.1 118.9 129.8

Gross Profit 33.5 42.4 42.2 42.9 42.3 55.7 28.4 27.5 41.7 36.5 40.7 16.7 32.6 40.2

Gross Profit Margin 20% 21% 23% 24% 25% 27% 15% 16% 24% 19% 22% 10% 20% 20%

Lecico Group

Tile Analysis 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Volume (000's sqm)

Egypt 5,070 5,992 5,898 6,950 6,525 6,764 7,247 4,921 4,877 6,164 4,964 4,575 5,181 4,964

Lebanon 424 695 378 409 521 398 611 73 210 359 303 202 310 245

Exports 1,714 1,955 2,116 1,891 1,744 1,887 652 1,702 1,011 1,353 625 1,142 1,012 748

Total Volume 7,208 8,642 8,392 9,250 8,790 9,049 8,510 6,697 6,098 7,876 5,892 5,919 6,503 5,957

Average Selling Price 21.1 21.8 21.8 21.5 22.7 22.6 24.2 25.5 23.2 24.0 24.9 21.7 21.3 23.1

Revenue 152.4 188.7 182.7 198.6 199.4 204.1 206.2 170.7 141.3 188.7 146.9 128.4 138.8 137.8

Cost of Sales 96.6 116.8 117.8 129.4 128.9 130.1 150.7 122.0 115.1 149.3 118.4 127.6 140.4 141.5

Average Cost Per sqm 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.0 14.7 14.4 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.0 20.1 21.6 21.6 23.8

Gross Profit 55.7 72.0 64.8 69.1 70.5 74.1 55.5 48.7 26.2 39.4 28.6 0.8 (1.6) (3.7)

Gross Profit Margin 37% 38% 35% 35% 35% 36% 27% 29% 19% 21% 19% 1% -1% -3%

2013 2014 2015

2013 2014 2015 2016

2016

Page 12: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

Cost increase and slowdown impact since 2H 2014

12

Lecico Group

Profit & Loss (LE Million) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Net Revenues 331.9 400.0 378.0 391.0 383.8 425.4 411.3 352.8 329.2 394.9 338.9 307.6 319.0 346.6

Cost of Sales 240.8 282.5 268.0 275.8 267.6 291.8 323.0 271.4 256.2 314.3 266.2 288.2 284.2 307.1

Gross Profit 91.0 117.5 110.0 115.2 116.2 133.6 88.3 81.4 73.0 80.6 72.7 19.4 34.8 39.6

% of Sales 27% 29% 29% 29% 30% 31% 21% 23% 22% 20% 21% 6% 11% 11%

Selling expenses 17.3 20.6 18.1 20.7 14.6 18.8 15.8 16.6 17.8 20.0 20.3 24.8 15.8 22.6

Administration expenses 31.3 33.2 32.4 36.0 30.4 33.7 33.0 29.8 32.4 33.1 36.0 31.6 37.9 27.1

Overheads 48.7 53.7 50.6 56.7 45.0 52.5 48.8 46.4 50.2 53.1 56.3 56.4 53.7 49.8

% of Sales 15% 13% 13% 15% 12% 12% 12% 13% 15% 13% 17% 18% 17% 14%

Operating Profit (EBIT) 42.4 63.8 59.5 58.5 71.2 81.2 39.5 35.0 22.8 27.4 16.4 (37.0) (18.8) (10.2)

% of Sales 13% 16% 16% 15% 19% 19% 10% 10% 7% 7% 5% -12% -6% -3%

Net Financial Expenses (23.0) (27.9) (28.1) (27.0) (22.1) (23.2) (22.2) (23.8) (19.8) (20.1) (20.1) (19.3) (21.3) (23.8)

Dividend Income (0.0) 3.4 (0.2) (103.0) (0.0) 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0

Exchange Variances 8.2 6.2 (4.6) 5.3 0.5 9.5 (0.3) (0.5) 7.6 2.9 2.3 (1.2) 11.3 (1.4)

Profit before tax 27.6 45.5 26.7 (66.2) 49.6 69.9 17.0 10.7 10.6 12.7 (1.4) (57.4) (28.9) (32.3)

% of Sales 8% 11% 7% -17% 13% 16% 4% 3% 3% 3% 0% -19% -9% -9%

Taxes , profit share & minorities (11.3) (11.9) (9.0) (19.4) (14.6) (20.1) (11.7) (9.2) (8.4) (8.8) (7.3) (5.0) (12.4) (6.8)

Net Profit after tax 16.3 33.6 17.6 (85.5) 35.0 49.8 5.3 1.5 2.2 3.9 (8.7) (62.4) (41.3) (39.1)

% of Sales 5% 8% 5% -22% 9% 12% 1% 0% 1% 1% -3% -20% -13% -11%

2015 20162013 2014

Page 13: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

Financial overview

Page 14: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

14

Profit and loss

Net sales Cost of sales breakdown (1H 2016)

EBIT Net Profit *

* = 2013 net profit excludes write-off for France

Page 15: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

15

Quarterly P&L Trends

Net sales Gross profit*

EBIT* Net Profit*

* = 4Q 2013 net profit excludes write-off for France

Page 16: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

16

Segmental analysis

Sanitary ware – sales volumes and revenue Sanitary ware – gross profit and marginSanitary ware – selling price and cost per piece

Tiles – sales volumes and revenues Tiles – selling price and cost per sqm Tiles – gross profit and margin

Page 17: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

17

Quarterly Segmental trends

Sanitary ware average price, cost and profit per piece Sanitary ware sales volume

Tile Average Price, Cost and Profit per sqm Tile sales volume

Page 18: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

18

Balance sheet and cash flow

Working capital

Returns and leverage Capital expenditures 2016f

Maintenance Capex and tile diversification investment LE 60.0m

Page 19: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

Share performance and data

Page 20: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

20

Shareholding structure and performance

Lecico valued at a market cap of US$ 23 million with a 51% free float

– Local share trades circa US$ 5,500 per day and on 70% of trading days (12 months through August 2016)

Share liquidity overview (Local)

Liquidity has moved to local share and improved Lecico share price

Lecico trades at a EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x 2015 results

– The Company will have an EBIT loss for 2016

– Price to book value of 0.3x

– With a net loss the company does not have a PER for 2015

– The Company will have a net loss for 2016

Shareholding structure

Page 21: Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation

21

Thank you

For additional information, please contact:

Taher G. Gargour

Telephone: +203 518 0011

Fax: +203 518 0029

E-mail: [email protected]

Visit our website at: www.lecico.com

Forward-looking statements:

This presentation may contain certain “forward-looking statements”, relating to Lecico Egypt S.A.E. business, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “will”, “planned”, “expectations”, “forecast” or similar expressions, or by discussions of strategy, plans or intentions. Such statements may include descriptions of investments planned or currently under development by Lecico Egypt S.A.E. and the anticipated impact of these investments. Such statements reflect the current views of Lecico Egypt S.A.E. with respect to future events and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Many factors could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Lecico Egypt S.A.E. to be materially different from any future results that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.