Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation
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Transcript of Lecico 2Q 2016 Results Presentation
Corporate Summary
3
Introduction: An Egyptian exporter
Split of sanitary ware and tiles1Split of domestic and export1
* All production facilities are owned and controlled by Lecico
Alexandria
KhorshidBorg El-Arab
Cairo
Established 1997
Sanitary ware capacity
2.0 million pcs 2005
4.4 million pcs end 2007
Tiles capacity
6.4 million m2 mid – 2011
12.8 million m2 mid – 2013
Brassware capacity
0.3 million pcs mid – 2010
Borg El-Arab
Established 1975
Sanitary ware capacity
2.5 million pcs 2005
1.8 million pcs (inc FC) end 2008
Tiles capacity
17.0 million m2 2005
21.4 million m2 mid - 2007
Khorshid
Established 1959
Sanitary ware capacity:
350,000 pcs 2007
Tiles capacity
1.1 million m2 2005
Kfarchima
Kfarchima Beirut
Lecico Egypt S.A.E. – one of the world’s largest sanitary ware
producers – was founded in 1959 and has been majority owned by
the Gargour family since 1969
The company has a global competitive advantage making European
quality sanitary ware at Egyptian costs
c45% of Lecico’s sanitary ware sales volume is exported to Europe
Lecico finished expansions in sanitary ware in 2007 which boosted
capacity to 6.5m pieces of sanitary ware and fired clay
In Summer 2010, Lecico began brassware production with a 300,000
piece per annum capacity factory
In 2011 Lecico opened a new tile factory in Borg El Arab which
reached 12.8m sqm capacity in 2013 (Total tile capacity 35m sqm)
In mid-2014, Lecico faced a 133% increase in gas prices driving a
20% increase in production costs
Note: (1) FY 2015 3
A major sanitary ware exporter
5
A major sanitary ware exporter to Europe
Growth in group’s exports
Export focus on Europe
• Sanitary ware export volumes grew at 1.9% CAGR (2005-2015)
• Sharp slowdown in Middle East exports in 2014 onwards
• Average of over 75% of exports are to Western Europe
• Percentage has risen in the last two years as Middle Eastern
markets have weakened and regional competition increased
Lecico’s total export volumes (sanitary ware) Egypt’s leading sanitary ware exporter
Europe as percentages of total exports Growth of Lecico brand sanitary ware market share in UK
• Lecico exports c56% of its sales vs. 20% for local peers
• Lecico sells to over 50 countries (including OEM sales)
• Approximately 26% of exports (15% of sanitary ware
sales volumes) are for other brands
• Lecico represents over 50% of Egypt’s sanitary ware
exports with the balance split among 9 manufacturers
• UK estimated c16% market share in Lecico-branded sales
• A further c3% market share in OEM and white label sales to
the UK
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Significant cost advantage
International cost advantage
Lecico produces sanitary ware at an all-in average cost of US$14.00/piece
– In Egypt, manufacturing cost averages US$10.75/piece of sanitary ware
– The difference reflects higher packing costs for EU-destined exports and significantly higher industrial cost in Lebanon
– Costs have risen in the past few years due to energy cost inflation in 2014 and reduced production utilisation
– Our information suggests other low cost producers’ manufacturing cost averages US$15-30/piece
– While European producers average US$30+/piece depending on their market
Why is Lecico able to produce so competitively?
– Egypt: Low energy costs, low labour cost, low investment costs, low effective taxes
– Size: Economies of scale, standard global plant size: 1m pieces
– Experience: Over 50 years manufacturing experience
– Efficiency: Production per employee is over twice that of our local competitors
Investment, distribution and overheads benefit from regional economies of scale
– Sanitary ware investment cost approx US$30-40/piece vs. US$35-55/piece global standard
– Low shipping cost to Europe: US$1.50 per sanitary ware piece vs. approx US$6+ for Asian manufactures
Cost increases and tile overcapacity
Energy price increases add LE 200 million in costs…
Item Increase Impact
Natural Gas 133% from USD 3.0/mbtu to USD 7.0/mbtu 70% of energy costs, energy is 20% of cogs
Electricity 33% from EGP 0.33/KwH to EGP 0.42/KwH 30% of energy costs, energy is 20% of cogs
Diesel petrol 64% from EGP 1.10/ltr to EGP 1.80/ltr All goods and materials will face inflation
Cheapest (80 Octane) petrol 78% from EGP 0.90/ltr to EGP 1.60/ltr General inflation in Egypt
In July 2014, the government announced an massive increase in energy prices which will have a
profound effect on Lecico’s financials:
Lecico estimates that these changes increase cost by at least LE 200 million per year:
– Change raise COGs to about LE 200 million assuming volumes unchanged and no improvement in production/cost structure
– Approximately LE 11 (USD 1.55) extra cost per piece of sanitary ware (c 30% of the LE 200 million plus increase in costs)
– Approximately LE 4 (USD 0.55) extra cost per square meter (c 70% of the LE 200 million increase in costs)
– In 2H 14 and 1H 15, Unit cost increases have matched forecasts despite significant squeeze on volumes as a result of:
– Better energy recuperation and continued efficiency/de-bottlenecking improvements
The additional LE 200 million in costs is more than our annualised profit
– Net profit for the 12 months from 3Q13-2Q14 was LE 120.1 million
On average Lecico needs around a 15% price increase to cover the cost inflation
– By segment we need a 9% increase in sanitary ware and a 20% increase in tiles average group consolidated prices
– This would only absorb costs and would still result in lower margins (%)
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…as tile oversupply hits prices, volumes and costs
Consumer demand in Egypt squeezed since 2H 14
– Consumer inflation squeezed spending on tiles and sanitary ware from 2H 2014 onwards with sales in Egypt falling 8% in 2015 year-on-year
and a further 6% in the first half of 2016
Egyptian tile exports down 46% in 1H 2016 (from a challenging 2015)
– The Middle East in general and Libya in particular have been sharply affected by regional instability
– Sales to Libya were down 62% year-on-year in 2015 and are down 51% year-on-year in the first half
– Overall, official government figures show around a 46% reduction in overall Egyptian tile exports year-on-year in 1H 2016.
Egyptian market facing surplus capacity of around 30% in tiles
– Informal data suggests that installed tile capacity in Egypt reached 490 million square meters per day while actual production is around 340
– Lecico Egypt tile sales were down 19% year-on-year in 2015 and down 8% year-on-year in 1H 2016
Increased price competition as manufacturers fight for market share
– Price competition and aggressive bargaining to shore up market share have been common since 2H 2015, forcing Lecico to reduce tile prices
– Lecico tile prices are down 6% comparing 1H 2016 to FY 2014 (vs. needed 20% to absorb July 2014 gas price hike)
– Lecico sanitary ware prices – boosted by export and not facing overcrowding in Egypt – are up 11% (vs. 9% need to absorb gas price hike)
Lower sales and production volumes – compounded by devaluation - have pushed up unit costs
– Unit costs have risen as Lecico has reduced production and the March 2016 devaluation of the pound pushed up imported and fx-linked inputs
– Lecico has mothballed 30% of tile capacity and 12% of sanitary ware capacity from the start of the year reducing fixed costs
– Lecico tile costs are up 40% comparing 1H 2016 to FY 2014 (EGP 8.1/sqm vs. the EGP 4.0 expected impact of gas alone)
– Lecico sanitary ware costs are up 12% comparing 1H 2016 to FY 2014 (EGP 24/piece vs. the EGP 11 expected impact of gas alone)
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Recovery plan: volumes, costs and capital control
These shocks have taken Lecico from its most profitable half (1H 14) to significant losses (2H 15 & 1H 16)
Recovery must come from higher sales volumes and better pricing – despite the environment
– Lecico is rolling out a number of plans to gain market share in Egypt, among them: introduce new distributors; expand direct retail sales
outlets; open Upper Egypt warehouse/distribution centre; limited period offers and promotions; increased PoS marketing and a planned social
media presence by end of 2016
– Lecico is pushing new export business in both tiles and sanitary ware. We expect an incremental 400k pieces of sanitary ware sales in 2017
– Lecico increased prices in Egypt in 2016 (around 8% on sanitary ware and 5% on tiles), effect in August but partially netted out by promotions
– However, price increases are challenging and may be reversed. Volume gains may be offset by reversals with other markets and customers.
The path to recovery is not a smooth or a short one.
Tactically, Lecico is cutting costs and managing cash flows
– Lecico plans to cut costs by LE 65 million per annum. Rolled out over 2016 with some costs associated (severance packages, write-offs, etc).
Effect in 2017.
– Lecico is targeting to reduce working capital and – in 1H16 – would have reduced working capital by around LE 10 million if not for the effect
of devaluation. Lecico succeeded in reducing inventory and increasing payables but receivables grew.
– For receivables, we introduced a payment-focused discount system in Egypt and are working on reducing payment terms with international
customers to try and bring down receivables in the second half of 2016.
– However, cost reductions may be offset by inflation, further devaluation, increased cost of money and new austerity measures. Working
capital improvement in an environment of over-capacity and price competition are difficult. Significant net reductions in costs and working
capital will take time and may face temporary reversals.
Lecico has had success in revenue growth and reducing losses quarter-on-quarter from 4Q 2015 and will
work to continue and accelerate this recovery in a difficult environment.
10
Cost increase and slowdown since 2H14
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Lecico Group
Sanitary Ware Analysis 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Volume (000's pieces)
Egypt 670 668 511 645 473 645 533 415 470 555 464 507 534 451
Lebanon 36 83 52 21 25 39 76 10 18 29 35 27 37 37
Exports 655 779 794 763 796 845 711 766 751 766 613 600 553 721
Total Volume 1,361 1,530 1,357 1,428 1,294 1,530 1,319 1,191 1,239 1,350 1,112 1,134 1,124 1,209
Average Selling Price 123.8 130.9 137.2 127.5 133.2 137.3 146.8 143.1 142.1 143.7 163.3 146.9 147.9 163.1
Revenue 168.5 200.3 186.1 182.0 172.4 210.1 193.6 170.5 176.0 194.0 181.6 166.5 166.3 197.1
Cost of Sales 134.9 157.9 143.9 139.2 130.0 154.4 165.3 143.0 134.3 157.5 140.9 149.8 133.7 156.9
Average Cost Per Piece 99.2 103.2 106.1 97.5 100.5 100.9 125.3 120.0 108.5 116.7 126.7 132.1 118.9 129.8
Gross Profit 33.5 42.4 42.2 42.9 42.3 55.7 28.4 27.5 41.7 36.5 40.7 16.7 32.6 40.2
Gross Profit Margin 20% 21% 23% 24% 25% 27% 15% 16% 24% 19% 22% 10% 20% 20%
Lecico Group
Tile Analysis 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Volume (000's sqm)
Egypt 5,070 5,992 5,898 6,950 6,525 6,764 7,247 4,921 4,877 6,164 4,964 4,575 5,181 4,964
Lebanon 424 695 378 409 521 398 611 73 210 359 303 202 310 245
Exports 1,714 1,955 2,116 1,891 1,744 1,887 652 1,702 1,011 1,353 625 1,142 1,012 748
Total Volume 7,208 8,642 8,392 9,250 8,790 9,049 8,510 6,697 6,098 7,876 5,892 5,919 6,503 5,957
Average Selling Price 21.1 21.8 21.8 21.5 22.7 22.6 24.2 25.5 23.2 24.0 24.9 21.7 21.3 23.1
Revenue 152.4 188.7 182.7 198.6 199.4 204.1 206.2 170.7 141.3 188.7 146.9 128.4 138.8 137.8
Cost of Sales 96.6 116.8 117.8 129.4 128.9 130.1 150.7 122.0 115.1 149.3 118.4 127.6 140.4 141.5
Average Cost Per sqm 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.0 14.7 14.4 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.0 20.1 21.6 21.6 23.8
Gross Profit 55.7 72.0 64.8 69.1 70.5 74.1 55.5 48.7 26.2 39.4 28.6 0.8 (1.6) (3.7)
Gross Profit Margin 37% 38% 35% 35% 35% 36% 27% 29% 19% 21% 19% 1% -1% -3%
2013 2014 2015
2013 2014 2015 2016
2016
Cost increase and slowdown impact since 2H 2014
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Lecico Group
Profit & Loss (LE Million) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Net Revenues 331.9 400.0 378.0 391.0 383.8 425.4 411.3 352.8 329.2 394.9 338.9 307.6 319.0 346.6
Cost of Sales 240.8 282.5 268.0 275.8 267.6 291.8 323.0 271.4 256.2 314.3 266.2 288.2 284.2 307.1
Gross Profit 91.0 117.5 110.0 115.2 116.2 133.6 88.3 81.4 73.0 80.6 72.7 19.4 34.8 39.6
% of Sales 27% 29% 29% 29% 30% 31% 21% 23% 22% 20% 21% 6% 11% 11%
Selling expenses 17.3 20.6 18.1 20.7 14.6 18.8 15.8 16.6 17.8 20.0 20.3 24.8 15.8 22.6
Administration expenses 31.3 33.2 32.4 36.0 30.4 33.7 33.0 29.8 32.4 33.1 36.0 31.6 37.9 27.1
Overheads 48.7 53.7 50.6 56.7 45.0 52.5 48.8 46.4 50.2 53.1 56.3 56.4 53.7 49.8
% of Sales 15% 13% 13% 15% 12% 12% 12% 13% 15% 13% 17% 18% 17% 14%
Operating Profit (EBIT) 42.4 63.8 59.5 58.5 71.2 81.2 39.5 35.0 22.8 27.4 16.4 (37.0) (18.8) (10.2)
% of Sales 13% 16% 16% 15% 19% 19% 10% 10% 7% 7% 5% -12% -6% -3%
Net Financial Expenses (23.0) (27.9) (28.1) (27.0) (22.1) (23.2) (22.2) (23.8) (19.8) (20.1) (20.1) (19.3) (21.3) (23.8)
Dividend Income (0.0) 3.4 (0.2) (103.0) (0.0) 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
Exchange Variances 8.2 6.2 (4.6) 5.3 0.5 9.5 (0.3) (0.5) 7.6 2.9 2.3 (1.2) 11.3 (1.4)
Profit before tax 27.6 45.5 26.7 (66.2) 49.6 69.9 17.0 10.7 10.6 12.7 (1.4) (57.4) (28.9) (32.3)
% of Sales 8% 11% 7% -17% 13% 16% 4% 3% 3% 3% 0% -19% -9% -9%
Taxes , profit share & minorities (11.3) (11.9) (9.0) (19.4) (14.6) (20.1) (11.7) (9.2) (8.4) (8.8) (7.3) (5.0) (12.4) (6.8)
Net Profit after tax 16.3 33.6 17.6 (85.5) 35.0 49.8 5.3 1.5 2.2 3.9 (8.7) (62.4) (41.3) (39.1)
% of Sales 5% 8% 5% -22% 9% 12% 1% 0% 1% 1% -3% -20% -13% -11%
2015 20162013 2014
Financial overview
14
Profit and loss
Net sales Cost of sales breakdown (1H 2016)
EBIT Net Profit *
* = 2013 net profit excludes write-off for France
15
Quarterly P&L Trends
Net sales Gross profit*
EBIT* Net Profit*
* = 4Q 2013 net profit excludes write-off for France
16
Segmental analysis
Sanitary ware – sales volumes and revenue Sanitary ware – gross profit and marginSanitary ware – selling price and cost per piece
Tiles – sales volumes and revenues Tiles – selling price and cost per sqm Tiles – gross profit and margin
17
Quarterly Segmental trends
Sanitary ware average price, cost and profit per piece Sanitary ware sales volume
Tile Average Price, Cost and Profit per sqm Tile sales volume
18
Balance sheet and cash flow
Working capital
Returns and leverage Capital expenditures 2016f
Maintenance Capex and tile diversification investment LE 60.0m
Share performance and data
20
Shareholding structure and performance
Lecico valued at a market cap of US$ 23 million with a 51% free float
– Local share trades circa US$ 5,500 per day and on 70% of trading days (12 months through August 2016)
Share liquidity overview (Local)
Liquidity has moved to local share and improved Lecico share price
Lecico trades at a EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x 2015 results
– The Company will have an EBIT loss for 2016
– Price to book value of 0.3x
– With a net loss the company does not have a PER for 2015
– The Company will have a net loss for 2016
Shareholding structure
21
Thank you
For additional information, please contact:
Taher G. Gargour
Telephone: +203 518 0011
Fax: +203 518 0029
E-mail: [email protected]
Visit our website at: www.lecico.com
Forward-looking statements:
This presentation may contain certain “forward-looking statements”, relating to Lecico Egypt S.A.E. business, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “will”, “planned”, “expectations”, “forecast” or similar expressions, or by discussions of strategy, plans or intentions. Such statements may include descriptions of investments planned or currently under development by Lecico Egypt S.A.E. and the anticipated impact of these investments. Such statements reflect the current views of Lecico Egypt S.A.E. with respect to future events and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Many factors could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Lecico Egypt S.A.E. to be materially different from any future results that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.