Leanwind: Needs for reliability data · Project summary LEANWIND OBJECTIVE: to provide cost...
Transcript of Leanwind: Needs for reliability data · Project summary LEANWIND OBJECTIVE: to provide cost...
Project supported within the
Ocean of Tomorrow call of the
European Commission Seventh
Framework Programme
Leanwind: Needs for reliability data
O&M Workshop – IEA Task 33
23th September 2015
John Dalsgaard Sørensen Aalborg University
• Introduction - LEANWIND
• O&M objectives and O&M strategy
• Reliability implications and reliability modelling
• Risk-based O&M
• Summary - Reliability data needed
Outline
Logistic Efficiencies And Naval architecture for Wind
Installations with Novel Developments
• Beaufort Research, UCC is coordinator
• 31 partner organisations
– 52% industry partners
– Representing 11 countries;
• €14.9m total funding; €10m EC funding
• 4 year duration
– Start date: December 2013
Project summary
LEANWIND
OBJECTIVE: to provide cost reductions across the offshore wind farm
lifecycle and supply chain through the application of lean principles and
the development of state of the art technologies and tools.
Dr. Jimmy Murphy (Beaufort Research, UCC), Máire Geoghegan-Quinn (EU
Commissioner for Research, Innovation & Science), and Ørnulf Jan Rødseth
(Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute) © Gary O'Neill
Project Summary
LEANWIND Consortium
52% Industry Partners
Aims to be industry relevant and not simply an academic project
• Construction, Deployment &
Decommissioning
• Novel Vessels & Equipment
• Operation & Maintenance
• Integrated Logistics
• System Integration
• Testing & validation of tools & technologies
• Economic & Market Assessment
LEANWIND
Work Structure
Operation and maintenance strategies
Leading work : University of Aalborg
- optimise existing O&M strategies
- develop & test condition monitoring and remote presence systems
- Use of flotels, launch and recovery, centralised offshore hubs, helicopter access, etc.
- Adapt O&G knowledge for offshore wind
LEANWIND
Work Structure
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
2 CTV 3 CTV 2 CTV +1 SES
1 CTV +1 SES
2 SES 3 SES 1 SAV +1 CTV
1 SAV 1 MM 1 CTV +2 SES
Tota
l O&
M c
ost
s re
lati
ve t
o o
pti
mal
so
luti
on
Personnel cost
Vessel cost
Spare part cost
Lost income dueto downtime
O&M vessel fleet optimisation
Maintenance at Sheringham Shoal Offshore Wind: Image – Statkraft, www.offshorewind.biz/2014/06/06/photo-of-the-day-maintenance-at-sheringham-shoal-offshore-wind-farm/
Goal: minimize the total expected life-cycle costs
→ minimize LCOE
Initial costs: dependent on reliability level
O&M costs: dependent on O&M strategy,
availability and reliability
Failure costs: dependent on reliability
Introduction
Increasing maintenance efforts
Decreasing risk (expected failure cost)
Minimum reliability (codes, authorities ...)
Maintenance &
repair cost Optimal
strategy
Maintenance effort
Co
st,
ris
k
Expected failure
cost
Introduction
O&M objectives
• Optimize O&M strategies, procedures and scheduling for far-shore/deep water/more exposed locations.
• Reduce OPEX costs by improving condition monitoring and remote presence systems to minimize the need for on-site and corrective maintenance.
• Consider the impact of Structural Health Monitoring on life-cycle performance though minimizing O&M costs.
• Examine the influence of weather conditions, access criteria and access systems, including floating hotels, centralized offshore hubs, etc.
• Consider adaptation of Oil & Gas knowledge for the wind energy sector.
O&M Objectives – O&M strategy
• Produce a modelling tool to determine the optimal O&M
strategy of a farm given site location, distance to port,
weather window analysis etc.
• Analysis the most effective O&M strategy for different
scenarios (shore based, mothership etc.)
• Optimal maintenance strategies will be developed using
different approaches incl. risk-based techniques.
O&M strategies
• Long-term planning:
– Corrective / Preventive strategies
– Risk-based strategy
• Short-term planning
– Dynamics scheduling
– Risk-based strategy
Dependent on:
o Weather conditions
o Transport / vessels available / Logistics for spare parts,…
o Access systems
o Reliability, damage development, …
o Condition monitoring, inspections, …
Optimization of O&M strategies
Optimization of O&M strategies
Reliability implications
• Development of reliability-based design tools for off-shore
wind turbines
• Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety/Security
(RAMS) methodologies for critical components
• Software tools for the simulation and optimization
Analysis of failure probabilities based on different types of information: - Observed failure rates – Classical reliability theory - Probabilistic models for failure probabilities – Structural Reliability Theory:
Limit state modeling & FORM / SORM / simulation
Mechanical / electrical
components
Structural components
Reliability modelling
Failure Rates and Downtimes (examples)
Source: ISET: 2006
Reliability modelling
• Corrective (unplanned): exchange / repair of failed
components
• Preventive (planned):
– Timetabled: inspections, and evt. repair after predefined
scheme
– Conditioned: monitor condition of system and decide next on
evt. repair based on degree of deterioration
→ risk-based using pre-posterior Bayesian decision models
Risk-based Operation & Maintenance
How can risk-based methods be used to optimal planning of
• future inspections / monitoring (time / type)
• decisions on maintenance/repair
on basis of (unknown) observations from future inspections /
monitoring
taking into account uncertainty and costs?
Risk-based Operation & Maintenance
Application of Bayesian Networks
D0 D1
FC1
Ins1
R1
RC1
D2
FC2
Ins2
R2
RC2
F1 F2
A1 A2
MU MU1 MU2
Risk-based Operation & Maintenance
Deterioration – damage accumulation:
• Deterioration processes are connected with significant uncertainty
• Observations of the actual deterioration by monitoring or inspections can
be introduced in the models and significantly improve the precision of
forecasts
•Corrosion
•Erosion
•Fatigue
•Wear
•Etc.
Risk-based Operation & Maintenance
Corrective maintenance
Data needed:
• Failure rate (and stochastic model for failure events)
• Cost model for repair
– Availability and cost of personnel, spare parts, transport possibilities
(ship, helicopter, …)
– Weather conditions
Operation & Maintenance
Condition-based / risk-based maintenance
Data needed:
• Failure rate
• Damage model, incl. uncertainty
• Cost model for repair
• Cost model for monitoring / inspection
Operation & Maintenance
• Failure rates for critical components and subsystems
• Detectability of failures
• Damage development with time
• Probabilistic models
Summary - Reliability data needed
Project supported within the
Ocean of Tomorrow call of the
European Commission Seventh
Framework Programme
Leanwind: needs for reliability data
O&M Workshop
22th September 2015
John Dalsgaard Sørensen Aalborg University
Thank You For Your Attention