Altos Research Real-Time Housing Market Indicators

Leading the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Leading the Case-Shiller HPI

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI is reported with a 60-day lag, and subject to revision

Altos Research real-time housing indicators are compared to: Calendar time event Reported time event

Leading indicators provide 2-8 month forecast of trend and magnitude changes in the CS HPI

Supply & Demand Indicators Median Price

Asking price of available on-market/active listings. Positively correlated to CS with 3-4 month lead time.

Price of New Listings Asking price of each week’s new market supply. Positively correlated with 4-5 month lead time.

Price of Listings Absorbed Proxy for sold prices. Properties exit the market, then typically

close 60-120 days later. Percent Price Decreased

Percentage of active sellers who have take at least one price reduction in most recent 90-day period

Negatively correlated with 4-8 month lead time. Inventory

Total count of active listings Negatively correlated with 2-6 month lead time.

Additional Leading Indicators Days-on-market (mean & median)

Time-on-market to determine future price forecasting period

Market Action Index Market absorption rate

Percent Relisted Seller psychology indicator.

Magnitude Price Decrease Measures amount of seller price reductions

Year-on-Year Measures (Price, DOM, Inventory)

Today’s on-market prices lead tomorrow’s transaction prices

5/1/

2007

7/1/

2007

9/1/

2007

11/1

/200

7

1/1/

2008

3/1/

2008

5/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

9/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

1/1/

2009

3/1/

2009

5/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

9/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

1/1/

2010

3/1/

2010

5/1/

2010

$400,000

$420,000

$440,000

$460,000

$480,000

$500,000

$520,000

$540,000

$560,000

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

185.00

195.00

205.00

215.00

225.00

median_ask_price EOM price_of_new_listingsCSXR CSXR reported

Today’s price reduction means lower transaction prices tomorrow…

5/1/

2007

7/1/

2007

9/1/

2007

11/1

/200

7

1/1/

2008

3/1/

2008

5/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

9/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

1/1/

2009

3/1/

2009

5/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

9/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

1/1/

2010

3/1/

2010

5/1/

2010

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

185.00

195.00

205.00

215.00

225.00

percent_price_decreased CSXR CSXR reported

Fewer price reductions starting in Jan 2009 indicate market strength and future price stability, reported in June 2009

Increasing number of price reductions indicate market weakness ahead - leads to lower future prices.

…While new sellers enter the market to influence future prices

Febr

uary

200

9

March

200

9

April

2009

May 2

009

June

200

9

July

200

9

Augus

t 200

9

Sept

embe

r 200

9

Octob

er 2

009

Novem

ber 2

009

Decem

ber 2

009

Janu

ary

2010

Febr

uary

201

0

March

201

0

April

2010

May 2

010

425000

435000

445000

455000

465000

475000

485000

144

146

148

150

152

154

156

158

160

162

164

BOE price_of_new_listings CSXR CSXR reported

New sellers enter at lower prices in Aug ‘09; Transaction prices move lower in Oct ‘09, reported in Dec ‘09

Supply levels affect prices

5/1/

2007

7/1/

2007

9/1/

2007

11/1

/200

7

1/1/

2008

3/1/

2008

5/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

9/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

1/1/

2009

3/1/

2009

5/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

9/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

1/1/

2010

3/1/

2010

5/1/

2010

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

185.00

195.00

205.00

215.00

225.00

zip_region_inventory CSXR CSXR reported

Supply moves consis-tently lower in Sept ’08, prices move higher in Spring ‘09.

Supply moves higher from early ‘07 thru Sept ’08, prices move lower. Notice how a small inventory de-cline in Fall ‘07 pre-cedes a slowdown in CSXR negative move-ment in Spring ’08.

Seattle (SEXR)

1/6/

2006

2/24

/200

6

4/14

/200

6

6/2/

2006

7/21

/200

6

9/8/

2006

10/2

7/20

06

12/1

5/20

06

2/2/

2007

3/23

/200

7

5/11

/200

7

6/29

/200

7

8/17

/200

7

10/5

/200

7

11/2

3/20

07

1/11

/200

8

2/29

/200

8

4/18

/200

8

6/6/

2008

7/25

/200

8

9/12

/200

8

10/3

1/20

08

12/1

9/20

08

2/6/

2009

3/27

/200

9

5/15

/200

9

7/3/

2009

8/21

/200

9

10/9

/200

9

11/2

7/20

09

1/15

/201

0

3/5/

2010

4/23

/201

0 $300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

185.00

195.00

205.00

median SEXR SEXR Reported

Seattle Price Reductions

1/6/

2006

2/24

/200

6

4/14

/200

6

6/2/

2006

7/21

/200

6

9/8/

2006

10/2

7/20

06

12/1

5/20

06

2/2/

2007

3/23

/200

7

5/11

/200

7

6/29

/200

7

8/17

/200

7

10/5

/200

7

11/2

3/20

07

1/11

/200

8

2/29

/200

8

4/18

/200

8

6/6/

2008

7/25

/200

8

9/12

/200

8

10/3

1/20

08

12/1

9/20

08

2/6/

2009

3/27

/200

9

5/15

/200

9

7/3/

2009

8/21

/200

9

10/9

/200

9

11/2

7/20

09

1/15

/201

0

3/5/

2010

4/23

/201

025%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

185.00

195.00

205.00

percent_price_decreased SEXR SEXR Reported

Chicago (CHXR)

8/31

/200

7

10/1

/200

7

11/1

/200

7

12/2

/200

7

1/2/

2008

2/2/

2008

3/4/

2008

4/4/

2008

5/5/

2008

6/5/

2008

7/6/

2008

8/6/

2008

9/6/

2008

10/7

/200

8

11/7

/200

8

12/8

/200

8

1/8/

2009

2/8/

2009

3/11

/200

9

4/11

/200

9

5/12

/200

9

6/12

/200

9

7/13

/200

9

8/13

/200

9

9/13

/200

9

10/1

4/20

09

11/1

4/20

09

12/1

5/20

09

1/15

/201

0

2/15

/201

0

3/18

/201

0

4/18

/201

0 $100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

median median_price_of_new_listingsCHXR CHXR reported

Chicago Price Reductions

6/1/

2007

8/1/

2007

10/1

/200

7

12/1

/200

7

2/1/

2008

4/1/

2008

6/1/

2008

8/1/

2008

10/1

/200

8

12/1

/200

8

2/1/

2009

4/1/

2009

6/1/

2009

8/1/

2009

10/1

/200

9

12/1

/200

9

2/1/

2010

4/1/

2010

30.0%

32.0%

34.0%

36.0%

38.0%

40.0%

42.0%

44.0%

46.0%

48.0%

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

% price decreased CHXR CHXR reported

Chicago Inventory

3/1/

2007

5/1/

2007

7/1/

2007

9/1/

2007

11/1

/200

7

1/1/

2008

3/1/

2008

5/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

9/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

1/1/

2009

3/1/

2009

5/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

9/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

1/1/

2010

3/1/

2010

5/1/

2010

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

180.00

Inventory CHXR CHXR reported

Los Angeles (LXXR)

1-Se

p-06

1-Nov

-06

1-Ja

n-07

1-Mar

-07

1-May

-07

1-Ju

l-07

1-Se

p-07

1-Nov

-07

1-Ja

n-08

1-Mar

-08

1-May

-08

1-Ju

l-08

1-Se

p-08

1-Nov

-08

1-Ja

n-09

1-Mar

-09

1-May

-09

1-Ju

l-09

1-Se

p-09

1-Nov

-09

1-Ja

n-10

1-Mar

-10

1-May

-10

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

$850,000

125.00

145.00

165.00

185.00

205.00

225.00

245.00

265.00

285.00

price price_of_new_listings price_of_listings_absorbedLXXR LXXR reported

Contact Altos Research

Scott Sambucci, VP Data Analytics O: (415) 931-7942 M: (415) 596-0804 E: scott@altosresearch.com B: http://blog.altosresearch.com W: www.altosresearch.com