Leader-Follower Studies in PMFserv: A Performance Moderator Function (PMF) Unification Architecture...
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Transcript of Leader-Follower Studies in PMFserv: A Performance Moderator Function (PMF) Unification Architecture...
Leader-Follower Studies in PMFserv: A Performance Moderator Function (PMF)
Unification Architecture
Barry G. Silverman, PhDRoy Eidelson, PhD, Tony Smith, PhD
Evan Sandhaus, Gnana Bharathy, Benjamin NyeElectrical & Systems Engineering Dept.
Inst. For Research in Cognitive Science (IRCS)Center for Human Modeling & Simulation
University of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphia, PA [email protected]
© Barry G Silverman, 2005
Outline• AFOSR Simulation Dashboard Project
– Leader-Follower Dynamics/What-Ifs
• PMFserv Model of Human Behavior• Case Studies
– LeaderSim and Athena’s Prism– Iraqi Insurgents & Crowds– Intifadah (Suicide – mission awry)– Somalia (Black Hawk Looters/Crowds)– SE Asia – (Tipping to Insurgency)
• Lessons Learned
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Editable* Archetype Group Roles, Assets, Strategies
Leader(s)
Loyal Followers
‘Rival’ Leaders
Fringe Followers
Prospective Followers
(and their “leaders”)
Enemy’s Fringe Fs
Enemy Loyal Fs
Enemy Leader(s)
Real* & PerceivedAssets/Resources•Goods•Law/Mil•Popular Support
Real* & PerceivedAssets/Resources•Goods•Law/Mil•Popular Support
Real* & PerceivedAssets/Resources•Goods•Law/Mil•Popular Support
A: e.g., theocrat*
B: eg, secular*
C: eg, fundamentalist*Group Values*: Secular Theocrat Fundamental Autocrat Anarchy
Grand Strategy Category*
SPIN - Get (buy) support for/againstgroup and action
FORM PACT with another group to become more powerful (more of each tank) against C•Contract TermsMilitaristic Attack on C, spoils to A, Brag
Economic War on C, spoils to A, Brag
Improve Life for A, Brag
Improve Life for B, Brag
Defend Economically:Protect/Secure/Defend, Whine About C
Defend MilitarilyProtect/Secure/Defend, Whine About C
SubTasks/Missions*
RecruitPay (ongoing
NegotiateOfferHaggleAbideViolate
Build, Recon,Move, Attack, Assassinate, ..Block GoodsTake JobsDeny Infrastr
Ban Trade,Boycott, Limit Jobs-InGroup
Fortfy border,Patrol, Intel,No Privacy
Give Goods
Provide Jobs
Build Infrastr
Leader Type*: Elected Tribal Dictator Religious
Greivan
ceM
emb
ership
Greivan
ceM
emb
ership
Greivan
ceM
emb
ership
Sp
eech
Act
sP
hys
ical
/Po
liti
cal
Act
s
PMFserv’s Unified Architecture for Cognition(Breaking Stovepipes Between Sub-Fields)
Stimuli
Biology Module/Stress
Personality,Culture,Emotion
Memory
Cognitive
Response
be free
help others
support terrorist
hide terrorist distract guards
crowd together block guards vision
be independent
sacrifice life
protect terrorist
survive
run for cover
protect children
TBR = E [ P U(st, at) ]
t=1+
-
Perception Module Expression
Social Module,Relations,Trust
www.seas.upenn,edu/~barryg/HBMR © Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Stimuli
Biology/Stress
Personality, Culture , Affect
PMFserv
Decisionmaking
Response
Social Module
Expression
Simulated World
Physiolo-gy Tanks
•sleep•nutrition
•injury
ConflictTheory(Janis-
Mann)
mainstressortanks
Inte-grated Stress
Energy Tank
Status
CopingStyle
NegativeEmotions(event stress)
TimePressure
fatigue event time
PhysiologyUpdates Coping Style
GibsonAffordance
LEGEND: Implements Interprets NewLiterature Literature PMF
Validated Profiling Instrument Available(Hermann, Eidelson, Hofstede/House, NfC)
Perception
ValueTrees(GSP, Bayes)
Subj.Utility
(Damasio)
Cog.App.(OCC)
GSPNodeFail/Succeed
Emotions(11 pairs)
Action Choices Afforded
Current World State:GSP Leaf NodeAffordance Updates
AlternateDecisionTheories
IntentionManagement
NestedIntent-ionalityProc’g
Relationship Tanks•Alignment
•Credibility/Trust•Objectification
•Valence
iStress
Identity Repertoires•Demography•SocialGroup
•Role
Observations about Other Agents
Updates
Relationship ParameterLevels
Action Choice (physical, speech)
Emotions(11 pairs)
Candidate Action
Relationship ParameterLevels
BR EV
Memory
SJTproximal
SJTdistal
SJ
Tc
en
tral
DT
Heur
Game
Prosp
SEU
ELMSEU
BR -- Best ResponseCCT – Cognitive Continuum Theory(Hammond)DT – Decision Theory (Keeney, Raiffa)ELM – Elaboration Likelihood Model (Petty)EV -- Expected ValueGame-Game Theory (von Neumann, Nash)
GSP – Goals, Standards, PreferencesHeur – Heuristics, Rules, Biases (Simon, Klein, Slovic)OCC – Ortony, Clore, Collins Prosp –Prospect Theory(Kahneman & Tversky)SEU – Subjective Expected Utility(Edwards, Wright)SJT – Social Judgement Theory(Brunswik, Hammond)
CCT
11 pairs of emotionsinternally-derived utilityU = I(sk)/11
GSP Trees (Bayesian-weighted)•Preferences - longer term hopes•Standards - means acceptable in self and others•Goals - short term needs and actions to reach Prefs
PMFserv Incorporates Personality, Cultural Values, Utility(common math framework – subjective expected utility)
Grow Assets
Authority
Military
Economy
People
Protect Assets (Reduce
Vulnerability)
Authority
Military
Economy
People
Goals
Extremists
Extremists
Standards
Exercise of Power
Scope of Doing Good
Treatment of Out Groups (In-Group
Bias)
Military Doctrine
Out-Groups are Legitimate Targets
Be Controlling/ Closed
Use Asymmetric Attacks
Use Conventional Attacks
Task Relationship Balance
Treat with Fairness and Justice
Be Open, Secular
Bring about Greater Good (be a Martyr, usually for ones Group)
Look after Narrower Interests
Be Relationship Focused
Be Task Focused
Honesty
Keep ones word
Use Duplicity
Humanitarian (Sensitivity to Life)
Respect Life (Life is Sensitive)
Objectify Life: Life is Cheap (None are Sensitive)
Shun Violence
Preferences
Desirable Future
For Everyone
For the Self
For the Group
People
Enemy Faction
Other Groups
Friendly Faction
Places n Things
Spritualistic
Symbolic/ Ritualistic
Materialistic
Own People
GSP Trees – Leader
Hermann TRAIT
1.belief in control
2. need for power
3. conc. complex
4. self-confidence
5. task vs. relations
6. distrust
7. In-group bias
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Preferences
Desirable Future
For Everyone
For the Self
For the Group
People
Enemy Faction
Other Groups
Friendly Faction
Places n Things
Spritualistic
Symbolic/ Ritualistic
Materialistic
Own People
Standards
Cultural Openness
Scope of Doing Good
Treatment of Out Groups
Out-Groups are Legitimate Targets
Be Closed/ Controlling
Task Relationship Balance
Treat with Fairness and Justice
Be Open, Secular
Bring about Greater Good (be a Martyr, usually for ones Group)
[Collectivism]
Look after Narrower Interests (Individualism)
Be Relationship Focused
Be Task Focused
Honesty
Keep ones word
Use Duplicity
Humanitarian (Sensitivity to Life)
Respect Life (Life is Sensitive)
Objectify Life: Life is Cheap (None are Sensitive)
Conformity & Assertiveness
Conform to Society
Assert Individuality
Respect Authority & Law
Goals
Physiology
Safety
Belonging
Esteem
GSP Trees – Villager
Personal Core Beliefs(Worldview)•Vulnerability•Injustice•Distrust•Superiority•Helplessness
Eidelson’s Model – Belief Inventory & Sample Behaviors
Each Agent’sGSP Trees
Affordances:Succeed/Fail
• Vulnerability. Preemptive strikes, panic, disorganization, shorter time horizon in decision-making, less complex thinking, consideration of fewer alternatives, flight, surrender.
• Injustice. Stronger commitment, greater cohesion, closer connection to local community, martyrs for the cause, attacks on institutional targets, remedy-focused behaviors designed to achieve solution to perceived injustice.
• Distrust. Greater secrecy, decentralized modes of organization and communication, restricted sharing of information, unwillingness to negotiate, tendency to misinterpret cues or intentions of others.
• Superiority. Greater violence, “dehumanization” of adversaries, avoidance those considered “inferior,” authoritarian demands for conformity and obedience, disregard for international norms of conduct.
• Helplessness. Abandoning efforts to resist or oppose, demobilization and surrender, last gasp “we have nothing to lose” actions such as sacrificing one's own and other's lives.
Individual-Group Belief Inventory (IGBI) measures these five dangerous ideas in group members
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Many Parameters (i) in PMFserv• Physiology/Biology
– Nourishment– Muscle Energy– Injury Levels– Sleep Need– Adrenaline– Others (open to user)
• Stress/Coping Style– Time Pressure– Event Stress– Effective Fatigue– Decision Style (5 levels)
• Adherence• Vigilance• Panic
• Emotions (11 pairs)– Joy/Despair, Fear/Hope, etc.
• GSP Value Trees (10E2 nodes)– Long Term Preferences (by Resource
and Territory)– Standards (Norms, Doctrine)– Short Term Goals (Maslow-type)
• Relationship Parameters– Alignment Level (Ally-Foe, 5 levels)– Group Affiliation (6-10 groups)– Valence/CognUnit/Agent-Object– Trust (by Resource and Player)
• Decision Parameters– Utility and Cost (continuous)– Action Choices (10s to 100s)– Discount Factors (risk-prone/averse)– World State
• Perception & Modeling of Others– N*(GSPs+Relations+Actions)
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Gallery of Some Past PMFserv Agent StudiesAsymmetric Plots (Culture/Emotions) Recreate Black Hawk Down: Four
types of Somalians Women/Kids, Civilian Males,
Militia, Clan Leaders Intifadah dynamics – cell leader,
suicide-bomber, Mayor, populace reactions
Grade B Movie - Al Qaeda & Iraqi Insurgency, SE Asia, Elsewhere
Crowd Behavior Emergence (Bio-Affect-Values-Panic-Riot)•WTO Talks in Seattle -- Protesting/rioting crowds: Males (employed/unempl.), females, instigators•Rioting/looting crowds at police station (impact of chanting upon crowd behavior)•Soccer Hooligans (Manchester United Supporters)•Scale up to 2000 agents in Sony OpenSteer
Political Agents for RPGs •Nested intentionality, speech acts, reputation management•World leaders in diplomatic strategy role playing game•Third Crusade Leaders (Saladin, Emir, Richard, Philip, etc.)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161
Turn
Res
ourc
es
Blue Yellow Red
Scope of LeaderSim
ScaleUpTerritories (10)Resources (10)Actions (70)Total (10x10x70xpayment levels)
x no. of pliesx N leaders (10)
PrototypeTerritories (3)Resources (3)Actions (5)Total (3x3x5xpayment levels)
x no. of pliesx N leaders (3)
References www.seas.upenn.edu/~barryg/HBMR.html
•.Silverman, BG, Rees, R., Toth, J, et al., (2005, Jan).“Athena’s Prism – A Diplomatic Strategy Role Playing Game for Generating Ideas and Exploring Alternatives”, 1st Internat’l Conf on Intel Anal
•Silverman, B.G., Johns, M., Bharathy, G. (2004, August). “Agent-Based Simulation of Leaders.” ACASA/UPenn, Tech Report.
•Silverman, B.G., Johns, M., et al. (2002, May). “Constructing Virtual Asymmetric Opponents from Data and Models in the Literature." 11th BRIMS, SISO.
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Agents Form Beliefs about the GSP Trees of other Agents(Static Model: ‘Mirroring and Stereotyping)
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Prototype LeaderSim Results
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161
Turn Blue Yellow Red
Nash Equilib: 2 winners in conflictual world
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 21 41 61 81 101 121
Turn
Res
ourc
es
Blue Yellow Red
Rare 3 in endgame. Yellow specialized away from Red and Blue.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161
Turn
Re
so
urc
es
Blue Yellow Red
Using threats, Yellow turns Red and Blue against one another
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161
Turn
Re
so
urc
es
Blue Yellow Red
Y’s power is curtailed early. Y then uses treaties to negotiate peace.
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97
109
121
133
145
157
169
Turn
Pre
fere
nce
Ach
ieve
men
t
Blue Yellow Red
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Turn
Pow
er
Blue Yellow Red
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Turn
Util
ity
Blue Yellow Red
Utility vs. Time
Preference Achievement vs. Time
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Turn Yellow Blue
Power vs. Time
Impression Error vs. Time
© Barry G Silverman, 2005
Athena’s Prism strategic role playing game•Useful to rapidly mockup conflict scenarios and test what-ifs •PMFserv can simulate world leaders if not enough humans
BigWig(late ’06)
Iraqi Crowd Demonstration Scenario:PMFserv drives Crowds in BigWorld©
Squadleader
Crowd
Agitator
Communityleader
Partners:DARPA, DSOBBNTotal Immersion © Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Demonstration• Exercise 2 paths through
the scenario– Naïve participant– Experienced participant
• Interact with 2 crowd variations– Moderate crowd– Extreme crowd
• Observations– Crowd animations– PE internal states
• Focus on time-critical decision making
Moderate crowd
Extreme crowd
Naïve player
Hostile
Suspicious
Violent
Misled
Experienced player
Trusting
Satisfied
Hostile
Suspicious
Sample outcomes (crowd states)
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Follower Got Most UtilityFrom Killing Himself and
Civilians at Bank
Checkpoint
Terroristagent
Sporting Event
City Hall
BankMilitaryFacility
Church
Partners: DMSO, GM© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Leader Wanted Bankto be Robbed
Checkpoint
Terroristagent
Sporting Event
City Hall
BankMilitaryFacility
Church
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Civilian Crowd(PMFserv)
Civilian Chopper Looters(PMFserv)
HelicopterCrash Site
Militiaman with Female Shields(PMFserv)
SuicideBomber(PMFserv)
Militia Unit W/ Leader(AI Implant)
Start
Militiaman with Female Shields(PMFserv)
SuicideBomber(PMFserv)
SOMALIA
Partners:DMSOONRICTSoar
PMFserv drives all crowds at Mike Durant’s Crashed Helicopter inBakara Market, Somalia
•Observers•Women•Looters•Militia•Suicidists
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
PMFserv Ramp Up Testing
Leader(s)
Loyal Followers
‘Rival’ Leaders
Fringe Followers
Prospective Followers
(and their “leaders”)
Enemy’s Fringe Fs
Enemy Loyal Fs
Enemy Leader(s)
C: eg, fundamentalist*Group Values*: Secular Theocrat Fundamental Autocrat Anarchy
A: Budhist/TRT Party*
B: Muslim*
Leader Type*: Elected Tribal Dictator Religious
Real* & PerceivedAssets/Resources•Goods•Law/Mil•Popular Support
Real* & PerceivedAssets/Resources•Goods•Law/Mil•Popular Support
Real* & PerceivedAssets/Resources•Goods•Law/Mil•Popular Support
Greivan
ceM
emb
ership
Greivan
ceM
emb
ership
Greivan
ceM
emb
ership
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006Partner: LM/ATL
Patani Moderates•Sultan•Parents (Villagers)•Unempl College Grad
TRT Leader Model Tahksin Shinawatra Prime MinisterBudhist Majority
Bersatu or BRN Insurgents:•Leader Model•Follower GSPs•Jemaah Islamiyah
Level of Conflict in the CountryT wrt Time(Initial Separation of Training & Test Sets)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Time (Days)
Violen
ce Le
vel
Level of Violence-Training Data Level of Violence-Test Data Poly. (Level of Violence-Training Data)
Poly. (Level of Violence-Test Data) Poly. (Level of Violence-Test Data)
Evidence of Escalation of ViolenceTransformation of society: people occupying higher grievance states increases.
Tsunami (relief forces)
Grievance State Occupancy Vs Time
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Time (Weeks)
Occ
up
ancy
of
Gri
evan
ce S
tate
[F
ract
ion
]
Mean Occupancy for GS0 Mean Occupancy for GS1
Mean Occupancy for GS2 Mean Occupancy for GS3
Mean Occupancy for GS4
Training Data Set
Actual Event Data Simulated Villager Feelings
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Snapshots of Key Simulation Events
• In the beginning, … the villagers do not have significant reaction to the Country Leader.
• The leader initiates an overt reaction of discrimination as it happened in early 2004.
• Conservative villagers disagree, while radicals oppose the moves.
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Variation of Tension wrt Brutality of the Leader
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Time (Weeks)
Tens
ion
Baseline Brutal Good
Sensitivity Analyses of Follower Outcomes vs.+/- 15% mean Leader Personality Standard
AFOSR Simulation Dashboard Status• Find principled way to explore the simulation space
– White Paper on possibilities for conflict, non-conflict
• Understand how model parameters (i) influence outcomes – Manually Testing – Ho: P(Conflict | i ) > Threshold OR < Limit– Parameter elasticities (e.g., regression estimators)
• Create wizard for Policy Analysts (dashboard)– XML-RPC interface to Monte Carlo shareware– Adding a module for design of experiments with PMFserv’s
leader and follower parameters
Monte Carlo Integration & InterfacePM
FSe
rv
Publishing ClientReceives Output from PMFServ
Publish Results
Subscribable Input Server for PMFServFor (param, val) in InputStream:
setProperty()
Execute PMFServModel
Loads Tokens
Interrupt Runs
SWIG
Int
erfa
ce
Pre-Processor ModuleGenerates Input Stream
Executor Module•Starts external PMFServ
•Sends InputStream
•Receives OutputStream
•Halts PMFServ
•Sends Token for Loading Intermediate Results (Sequential Sampling)
Post-Processor Module
Parameter Experiments Input Interface (XL)
•ParamName, CentralValue, StdDevn, Distribution
•DOE Specification
•Inspection, Tracing Flows in the Model, Back-Chaining (large parameter set to be reduced) – as done in villager
•Statistical screening or direct experiment using Latin Hypercube, Morris Random Walk, etc.
Model Output Interface (XL)
SIMLAB 2.2
UI
Integration Layer (Publish & Subscribe )
Design of ExperimentsDashboard
Summary• LeaderSim – Rapidly mockup realworld scenarios and
play out how policies & action choices lead to alternative effects and ways to influence leaders
• Human Behavior (PMFserv) – Compose leaders and followers. Open the agenda to research on parameters across many human behavior disciplines (biology/stress, values/personality/emotion, culture/groups, trust/reputation, decisions/gaming)
• Sensitivity Studies – Find principled ways to explore the space of possible outcomes, to avoid conflict states, and to understand the elasticities of behavior parameters as interventions are attempted