Le cycle ´economic du p´etroleschindle/talks/2019-2_ASPO.pdf · The Carbon Farming Solution A...
Transcript of Le cycle ´economic du p´etroleschindle/talks/2019-2_ASPO.pdf · The Carbon Farming Solution A...
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References
Le cycle economic du petrole
Ian Schindlerhttps://www.math.univ-toulouse.fr/˜schindle/
IMTTSE
ASPO France
BY:© C©creative commons license share alike
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References
Theorie neoclassique ?
Francis Bacon (Newton)Richard FeynmanGraeber (2014).Ansatz : production d’exergie (agriculture incluse) = moteur de laproduction economique.Max Planck.
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References
Cycles seculaires (via Gail Tverberg)Turchin and Nefedov (2009)
Fraser and Rimas (2011) Bardi (2017). La geologie ET cycles defeedback. Exemples : l’Union Sovietique, le Venezuela.
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References
Cost share
p = prix, q = quantite et Y def= YP ≤ PIB.
YEdef= cout energie
YE{def= Y \ YE
Y = YE + YE{
CEdef= YE
Y = YEYE + YE{
≥ cost share
= pqY (0.1)
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References
Conclusions
(0.1) =⇒
∂Y∂qY =
∂p∂qp −
∂CE∂qC + 1
q (0.2)
IY (t1, t2) = Ip(t1, t2)Iq(t1, t2)/ICE (t1, t2) (0.3)
ou Ix (t1, t2) def= x(t2)/x(t1).Croissance : ∂CE
∂q < 0.
Stagflation : ∂CE∂q > 0 =⇒ ∂p
∂q > 0 !Pouvoir determine par la taille de CS Graeber (2018).
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References
Exemple
Iq(t1, t2) = 0, 95, IY (t1, t2) = 0, 95, Ip(t1, t2) = 1, 5 etCE (t1) = 0, 05. (0.3) =⇒
CE (t2) = CE (t1)× Ip(t1, t2)× Iq(t1, t2)/IY (t1, t2) = 0, 75
ICE{(t1, t2) = 1− CE (t2)
1− CE (t1) = 0, 974
IYE{(t1, t2) = ICE{
(t1, t2)IY (t1, t2) = 0, 925
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References
Finance
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References
Modele du prix
p = exp(aτ + bQ + cDQ) ou τ = taux et DQ def= Q(t)−Q(t − 1).
Pric
e in
US
$ p
er b
arre
l
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
2040
6080
100
120
Fitted model : Simple regression (1966 − 2017)
PricesFitted prices
R2 = 0.9858
Q = 0.05
DQ = −0.07
Τ = 1.17
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References
Split 1
Time
Pric
e in
US
$ p
er b
arre
l
1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980
2040
6080
100 Price
Fitted price (simple)Fitted price (generalized)
Period 1966 − 1980
R2 = 0.9889
Q = 0.06
DQ = −0.1
Τ = 0.39
Time
Pric
e in
US
$ p
er b
arre
l
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
2040
6080
100
PriceFitted price (simple)Fitted price (generalized)
Period 1980 − 2000
R2 = 0.9903
Q = 0.04
DQ = −0.06
Τ = 1.94
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References
Split 2
Time
Pric
e in
US
$ p
er b
arre
l
2000 2005 2010 2015
4060
8010
012
0
PriceFitted price (simple)Fitted price (generalized)
Period 2000 − 2017
R2 = 0.9909
Q = 0.05
DQ = −0.04
Τ = −0.04
(H9) p(τ)↘
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References
Taux
Time
Ann
ual r
ate
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Annual federal funds rate (1965 − 2017)
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References
Symptomes economiques de la stagflation
CE ↗ =⇒ CE{ ↘.
1 Baisse des salaires =⇒ la difference entre l’elite et la classeproductive ↗.
2 Divisions politiques : autocratie ↗.3 Competition entre elites.
Exemple : 1930–45 Tverberg (2017).
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References
Symptomes economiques de la stagflation
CE ↗ =⇒ CE{ ↘.1 Baisse des salaires =⇒ la difference entre l’elite et la classe
productive ↗.2 Divisions politiques : autocratie ↗.3 Competition entre elites.
Exemple : 1930–45 Tverberg (2017).
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References
Theorie
Economie financiere vs economie reelle.1 La creation monetaire stimule l’economie financiere (Keynes,
Keen, Dalio).2 Quand l’economie financiere n’est pas � synchronisee � avec
l’economie reelle deux possibilites :1 Inflation.2 Contraction economique.
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References
Inflation ?
Les banques centrales detiennent $ 22× 1012 actifs financiers,environ 10% du total Prins (2018) =⇒ inflation des valeurs desactifs financiers.
ConjectureLe probleme dual est deflationiste.
DefinitionLa Permaculture est une culture a base de la science des systemesapplique au probleme dual.
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References
Inflation ?
Les banques centrales detiennent $ 22× 1012 actifs financiers,environ 10% du total Prins (2018) =⇒ inflation des valeurs desactifs financiers.
ConjectureLe probleme dual est deflationiste.
DefinitionLa Permaculture est une culture a base de la science des systemesapplique au probleme dual.
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References
Exemple (Depienne)
Paradox de Jevons Illig and Schindler (2017).
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References
Les Phases
• L’expansion : petroliers transforment le petrole en monnaie=⇒ CE{ ↗ =⇒ salaires ↗.
• La stagflation : investissement dans le probleme dual rapporteplus que l’expansion. Les salaires ↘.
• La contraction : petroliers transforment la monnaie en petrole=⇒ CE{ ↘.
• Les salaires ↘.• Les benefices ↘.• Les impots ↘.• L’economie ↘.• Hyperinflation.
Toute activite miniere se termine ou bien par la faillite, ou bien parl’hyperinflation et la demission des ouvriers.
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References
Signes
1 Competition entre elites• La competition pour investissements.• Des guerres diplomatiques.• La guerre civile.
2 Le vol.3 La corruption.
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References
Le Jardin des Fraternites Ouvrieres
1800 m2, 5 000 varietes de legumes, de cereales, plantesaromatiques et medicinales, plus de 2000 arbres fruitiers, . . . .Ecoagriculture ( bio.
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References
Sequestration
http://carbonfarmingsolution.com/carbon-sequestration-rates-and-stocks.Toensmeier (2016).
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References
La Matiere Organique
• Joseph Orszagh : http://www.eautarcie.org/.• Joseph Jenkins : Jenkins (2005).
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References
Monnaie Dette (par Galuel)
Graeber (2014)
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References
La G1 (par Brad Pi)
https://duniter.org/fr/comprendre/
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References
Bardi, U. (2017). The Seneca Effect Why Growth is Slow ButCollapse is Rapid. Springer.
Fraser, E. and A. Rimas (2011). Empires of Food: Feast, Famine,and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations. Free Press.
Graeber, D. (2014). Debt The First 5000 Years Second Edition.Melville House.
Graeber, D. (2018). Bullshit Jobs, a Theory. Simon & Schuster.Illig, A. and I. Schindler (2017). Oil extraction, economic growth,
and oil price dynamics. BioPhysical Economics and ResourceQuality 2(1), 1.
Jenkins, J. (2005). The Humanure Handbook. Joseph Jenkins Inc.Prins, N. (2018). Collusion How Central Bankers Rigged the
World. Nation Books.Toensmeier, E. (2016). The Carbon Farming Solution A Global
Toolkit of Perennial Crops and Regenerative AgriculturePractices for Climate Change Mitigation and Food Security.Chelsea Green Publishing.
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References
Turchin, P. and S. Nefedov (2009). Secular Cycles. PrincetonUniversity Press.
Tverberg, G. (2017). The depression of the 1930’s was an energycrisis. blog. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/12/19/the-depression-of-the-1930s-was-an-energy-crisis.
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