LDDC Measures 2012

7/31/2019 LDDC Measures 2012

1/36

Indicators of Economic Activity in

Downtown Louisville, 2012

by

Paul Coomes, Ph.D.Professor of Economics

and

Barry Kornstein and Shaheer Burney

May 8, 2012


2/36

Highlights At least 64,000 jobs downtown in 2010, down somewhat from 2009. But

Louisville still posted the second highest downtown job growth among itspeers over the last decade.

Leading industries for employment are health care, finance, insurance,

professional services, hotel and hospitality.

Downtown accounts for 11 percent of all jobs in the Louisville Metropolitan

Statistical Area, sixth highest concentration among fifteen peers.

Around 4,000 people live downtown, according to the 2010 Census. This is

up from 3,600 in 2000. Downtowns account for less than one percent of

residents in the peer metropolitan areas, and Louisvilles downtown

accounts for one-third of one percent of Louisville MSA residents.

Over 93 percent of households downtown rent instead of own, as housing is

dominated by subsidized units. Ownership rate is the lowest among comparison

downtowns.

Hotel sales downtown doubled in value over the last ten years, hitting $118 million

in 2011, for 921,000 rooms sold.

LDMD has documented $161 million in downtown investments in 2011.


3/36

230

360

593

630

674

685

746

915

934

1,086

1,167

2,439

3,025

3,970

7,173

8,032

13,301

18,265

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Transportation and Warehousing

Educational Services

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Other Services (excluding Public Administration)

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Utilities

Information

Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation

Accommodation and Food Services

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Public Administration

Finance and Insurance

Health Care and Social Assistance

Jobs by Industry in Downtown Louisville, 2010

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employment-

Household Dynamics, using On the Map tool. Downtown

defined as zip code 40202. Program does not measure federal

government workers or self-employed persons. People with

more than one job downtown are counted twice.

Total Jobs: 64,200 plusunknown number of

federal government

employees and self-

employed persons.

60 percent ofdowntown workers are

female.

20 percent of downtown workers are

younger than 30 years old..and

constant pattern this last decade.


4/36

60,604 60,87963,106 62,038

65,550 66,02468,153 68,030

64,233

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Jobs in Downtown Louisville (zip code 40202)Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employment-Household Dynamics, using On the Map tool. Program does not measure federal

government workers or self-employed persons. People with more than one job downtown are counted twice.

All sectors

Health care, education, and government sectors

Office sector

Hospitality sector - hotels, restaurants, arts and entertainment

Manufacturing, distribution, wholesale, retail, construction, utilities

Overall stability throughout decade.

Expect some growth as 2011 and 2012 data

are released, due to recovery from

recession and impact of arena.


5/36

Downtown workerslive in all 110 zip codes

of the 13-county

Louisville MSA.

Average annual pay per

job downtown is $53,100

versus $37,600 in MSA.


6/36

22,181

25,404

26,932

33,747

41,801

47,887

64,233

65,491

66,361

70,688

74,537

75,054

96,764

100,496

144,228

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Dayton

Omaha

Jacksonville

Greensboro

Raleigh

Memphis

Louisville

Charlotte

Birmingham

Cincinnati

Kansas City

Richmond

Nashville

Columbus

Indianapolis

Downtown Jobs, All Industries, 2009 and 2010

2010

2009

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics

program, using OnTheMap software; with downtown geographies defined by

authors using zip code boundaries.

Louisville ranks 9th in jobs among

the fifteen comparison

downtowns, same as its MSA

population rank.

Note: Only Indianapolis, Columbus and

Greensboro posted growth in 2010, presumably

because of recession.


7/36

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Index of Employment Growth in Downtowns

2002 = 100

Louisville

Indianapolis

Birmingham

Memphis

NashvilleKansas City

Richmond

Cincinnati

Greensboro

Raleigh

Columbus

Charlotte

Omaha

Dayton

Jacksonville

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, using OnTheMap software; with downtown geographies defined by authors usingzip code boundaries.

Louisville 2nd highest

growth this decade

among peers.


8/36

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Downtown's Share of MSA Employment, 2002 to 2010

Indianapolis

GreensboroLouisville

Charlotte

Omaha

Cincinnati

Kansas City

Birmingham

Columbus

Richmond

Nashville

Memphis

Raleigh

Dayton

Jacksonville

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, using OnTheMap software; with

downtown geographies defined by authors using zip code boundaries.

Downtown Louisville

hosts 11 percent of all

jobs in the

metropolitan area.6th

highest among peers.

Jacksonville least

concentrated (4%),

Indianapolis most

concentrated (17%).


9/36

Birmingham

Charlotte

Cincinnati

Columbus

Dayton

Greensboro

Indianapolis

Jacksonville

Kansas City

Louisville

Memphis

Nashville

Omaha

Raleigh

Richmond

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Pay

rolls

Jobs

Downtown's Share of MSA Jobs and Payrolls, 2009

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, using zip code level data to approximate downtown geographies. Employment

estimates cover wage and salalry jobs only, exclude self-employed and some government workers.

Louisville well above average in its

concentration of activity

downtown.

Most cities have higher

concentration of payroll

than jobs downtown.

Different data set,

revealing pay as well as

jobs.


10/36

CityState Company

Fortune

1000 rank

Revenues

(millions) CityState Company

Fortune

1000 rank

Revenues

(millions)

Birmingham, AL Regions Financial 293 $8,220 Jacksonville, FL CSX 230 $10,636

Charlotte, NC Bank of America Corp. 9 $134,194 Kansas City, MO H&R Block 550 $3,774

Duke Energy 173 $14,272 AMC Entertainment 765 $2,423

Ruddick 498 $4,400 Great Plains Energy 810 $2,256

Cincinnati, OH Procter & Gamble 26 $79,689 DST Systems 790 $2,329

Kroger 25 $82,189 Kansas City Southern 939 $1,815

Macy's 107 $25,003 Louisville, KY Humana 79 $33,868

Fifth Third Bancorp 326 $7,218 Kindred Healthcare 501 $4,360

Western & Southern Financial Group 456 $4,921 Memphis, TN AutoZone 322 $8,073

Chiquita Brands International 627 $3,227 First Horizon National Corp. 927 $1,836

American Financial Group 489 $4,497 Nashville, TN HCA 90 $30,683

Convergys Corp 794 $2,203 Omaha, NE Union Pacific 153 $16,965

Nationwide 127 $20,265 ConAgra Foods 200 $12,303

Columbus, OH American Electric Power 169 $14,427 Raleigh, NC Progress Energy 240 $10,190

Momentive Specialty Chemicals 433 $5,174 Richmond, VA MeadWestvaco Corp 373 5693

Huntington Bancshares 632 $3,187 New Market Corp 943 $1,797

Indianapolis, IN WellPoint 42 $58,802 Dominion Resources 162 $15,197

Simon Property Group 540 $3,958

Fortune 1000 Corporate Headquarters Located in Downtowns

Source: ReferenceUSA (Infogroup) & Yahoo! Finance, Retrieved Dec. 21, 2011. Dayton and Greensboro each have a Fortune 1000 headquarters, but they are not located downtown.

Two of Louisvilles five Fortune 1000

headquarters are located downtown.


11/36

11

6

1011

6

78

5 6 6

43 3 3

2

4

8

3 1

54 2

32

1

12

1

0

0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Fortune 1000 Corporate Headquarters, Downtown and Suburbs

Suburb F1000 Downtown F1000

Humana

Kindred

Brown-Forman

Pharmerica

Yum!


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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,00013,301

12,132 11,860

11,179

9,743

8,391

7,008

5,274 5,238

4,6794,451

3,886

2,372 2,262

1,684

Finance & Insurance Downtown Employment, 2010

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, using OnTheMap software; with downtown geographiesdefined by authors using zip code boundaries.

Humana puts Louisville at top


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Birmingham

Charlotte

Cincinnati

Columbus

Dayton

Greensboro

Indianapolis

Jacksonville

Kansas City

Louisville

Memphis

Nashville

Omaha

Raleigh

Richmond

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

E

m

p

l

o

y

e

e

s

Number of establishments

Downtown Hotels by Employment

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2009, using Zip Code Statistics, with interpolation inside ranges for employment.

Louisville 6th highest in

terms of hotel employment


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623,900600,059

645,383

603,510605,366608,918

663,199

623,446606,528596,257

666,729

638,666637,423

560,697564,391

721,255

750,713

881,240

922,062

866,381881,573

920,803

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

19901991199219931994 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

RoomsSold

ValueofRoomsSold

Hotel Room Sales in Downtown Louisville

Source: Louisville Metro Revenue Commission.


15/36

623,900600,059

645,383

603,510605,366608,918

663,199

623,446606,528596,257

666,729

638,666637,423

560,697564,391

721,255

750,713

881,240

922,062

866,381881,573

920,803

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

19901991199219931994 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

RoomsSol

d

ValueofRoomsSold

Hotel Room Sales in Downtown Louisville

Source: Louisville Metro Revenue Commission.

Over last ten years, room sold

rose by 44 percent, and value

rose by 98 percent. $118 millionin room sales

in 2011, for

921,000

rooms sold.


16/36

Birmingham

Charlotte Cincinnati

Columbus

Dayton

Greensboro

Indianapolis

Jacksonville

Kansas CityLouisville

Memphis

Nashville

Omaha

Raleigh

Richmond

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

E

m

p

l

o

y

e

e

s

Number of establishments

Downtown Restaurants and Bars by Employment

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2009, using Zip Code Statistics, with interpolation inside ranges for employment.

Louisville 9th highest in

terms of restaurant and bar

employment


17/36

BirminghamCharlotte

Cincinnati

Columbus

Dayton

Greensboro

Indianapolis

Jacksonville

Kansas City

Louisville

Memphis

Nashville

OmahaRaleigh

Richmond

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Downtown Museums by Employment

E

m

p

l

oy

e

e

s

Number of Establishments

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2009, using Zip Code Statistics, with interpolation inside

ranges for employment.

LIST OF DOWNTOWN MUSEUMS1. Frazier History Museum

2. Louisville Slugger Museum

3. Muhammad Ali Museum

4. Louisville Science Center

5. Kentucky Museum of Arts and Craft

6. Louisville Glassworks

7. Thomas Edison House


18/36

Downtown

Grocery storeswith at least 20

employees

Clothing storeswith at least 10

employees

Book storeswith at least 20

employees

Florists with atleast 5

employees Dry Cleaners Dentist offices

Veterinarian

offices with atleast 5

Employees

Birmingham 1 1 1 3 1 6 1

Charlotte 2 0 0 2 6 6 0

Cincinnati 0 2 0 0 2 16 0

Columbus 2 1 0 2 3 11 0

Dayton 0 1 0 0 1 2 0Greensboro 0 1 0 2 2 32 0

Indianapolis 2 9 2 3 5 12 1

Jacksonville 1 1 0 0 0 4 0

Kansas City 2 1 0 0 2 8 1

Louisville 1 0 2 1 0 9 0

Memphis 0 0 0 1 1 7 2

Nashville 1 4 1 2 1 35 0

Omaha 0 0 0 1 1 5 0

Raleigh 5 1 0 3 6 10 3

Richmond 3 1 1 0 4 13 1

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2009, zip code statistics.

Indicators of Downtown Living, 2009

Louisville similar to others in terms of grocery stores, but absent clothing

stores

Indianapolis seems to be the leader


19/36

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

25,657

18,265

13,547

11,39210,808

10,223 9,925

8,996

7,7747,333

3,0922,286

1,484905

391

Hospital, Health Care & Social Services Employment Downtown, 2010

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, using OnTheMap software; with downtown geographies defined by authors using zip codeboundaries.

Louisville stands out due to

downtown hospitals and UL Health

Sciences campus.


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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

30002957

2709

2142

2005

1907

1,297 1,280

1184

746669

564475

431 353 353

Retail & Trade Downtown Employment, 2010

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, using OnTheMap software; with downtown geographiesdefined by authors using zip code boundaries.

Louisville ranks 9th, same as MSA

population rank. Note, however, that

Birmingham, Raleigh, Richmond havemore retail employees downtown

even though their MSA population

sizes are similar to Louisvilles.


21/36

$0.5

$1.2

$1.4

$2.5

$2.8

$2.8

$3.0

$3.6

$4.2

$4.2

$5.0

$6.3

$6.6

$7.1

$8.0

$8.1

$8.6

$8.9

$17.7

$18.0

$40.6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

The 435 Building (renovation)

Cathedral Campus (renovation)

Independence Building (renovation)

The Quad Apartments

Main Street (improvements)

Olympic Apartments (renovation)

Creation Gardens

Spalding Dormitory Suites

U S Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE)

The Villager

SoHo Lofts

Downtown Scholar House

Lincoln Elementary Performing Arts School

Clay Commons Garage

Waterfront Park Phase III-Big Four Pedestrian Slope

Glassworks Garage

U S Attorney's Office Building (USAO)

The Kentucky Center for the Performing Arts (renov)

Norton Cancer Institute Radiation Center Downtown

Whiskey Row Lofts (renovation)

U of L School of Dentistry (expansion/renovation)

Investments Downtown in 2011 (millions)

Source: Jim Baines, Louisville Downtown

Management District.

Total of $161 million

40% medical, educational

26% residential


22/36

$106.4

$50.7

$77.0

$100.9

$161.0

$208.1

$168.6

$100.5

$142.3

$427.4

$380.6

$161.0

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Estimated Investments in Downtown over Last Decade ($000)



Public: $911 million

Private: $1,173 million


23/36

ASSEMBLY, $243.0

EDUCATIONAL, $94.6

HOSPITALITY, $1.3

HOTEL, $283.8

INFRASTRUCTURE,

$120.7

INSTITUTIONAL, $33.8

MFG/WHOL/STGE, $17.4

MEDICAL, $429.3MUSEUM, $69.2

OFFICE, $149.8

OPEN SPACE, $86.7

PARKING, $136.4

RELIGIOUS, $8.5

RESIDENTIAL, $308.6

RESTAURANT, $3.9

RETAIL,

$83.9

RETAIL

RESID, $0.3

THEATER, $8.8

TRANSPORTATION, $4.3

Downtown Investments over Last Decade, by Type of Use (millions)



Total of $2.1 billion

since 2000


24/36

Louisville GQ

is mostly jail

906

2,3143,245

4,9924,083 3,966

5,161

4,035

2,435

6,9897,868 8,145

8,371 8,4138,987

635

1,678

2,286

1,0542,196 2,406

1,2622,523

5,276

1,743

1,890

3,191 3,0753,248

3,502

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Total Population of Downtown Areas

with Houshold and Group Quarters Division

Louisville and Peer Cities, 2010

Household Population Group Quarters Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census.

1,541

11,336 11,44611,661

12,489

3,992

9,758

8,732

6,558

7,711

6,372 6,423

5,5316,046

6,279


25/36

906

2,314 2,435

3,245

3,966 4,035 4,083

4,9925,161

6,989

7,8688,145 8,371 8,413

8,987

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Houshold Population, 2010

Downtown Louisville and Peer City Downtowns



26/36

0.13%

0.18%0.21% 0.21%

0.28%0.32%

0.35%0.37%

0.40%

0.47%0.49%

0.52%

0.63% 0.63%0.64%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

Percentage of MSA Household Population in the Downtown Area, 2010


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census.Would need to add 4,071

persons in downtown Louisville

to get to Richmonds

concentration, i.e., need to

double the number of

downtown residents in Louisville.


27/36

16226 252

391 406 415 448

962

1,443 1,5041,651

1,9272,052

3,486

4,987

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Change in Houshold Population, 2000-10


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Censuses.

Lost about 1,400 people in

demolition of Clarksdale

housing project, so had to gain

1,800 people to generate this

net growth.


28/36

6.5%

12.3%13.8% 14.2%

14.9% 16.2%

19.2%21.1% 21.8%

22.3%

26.3%

29.2%

33.7%

37.9%

43.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Percentage of Household Population Living in Owned Units, 2010



Most

Louisville

downtown

residents live

in subsidizedhousing and

other

apartments.

D t ' Sh f J ff C t


29/36

0.9%

8.3%

13.7%

18.3%

43.9%

30.0% 30.9%

40.1%

48.3%

67.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Downtown's Share of Jefferson County

Total private IndustryHospitality Industries

Employment

Office Industries

Employment


30/36

1,760

1,703

1,739

1,695

1,6461,656

1,584

1,619 1,613

7%

8%

8%

8%

8%

8%

9%

9%

9%

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Number of Business Establishments Downtown & Share of County

2001 to 2009

Business Establishments Downtown Downtown's Share of County

Source: US Census Bureau,

County Business Patterns,

statistics for zip code 40202.


31/36

1,760

1,703

1,739

1,695

1,6461,656

1,584

1,619 1,613

8.9%

8.6%

8.7%

8.5%

8.3%8.3%

7.9%

8.1%

8.3%

7%

8%

8%

8%

8%

8%

9%

9%

9%

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Number of Business Establishments Downtown & Share of County

2001 to 2009

Business Establishments Downtown Downtown's Share of County

Source: US Census Bureau,

County Business Patterns,

statistics for zip code 40202.


32/36

Downtowns Importance to

Governments

Workers in downtown Louisville paid over 18 percent of all local occupational

taxes in 2011: $62.3 million to City, County, Schools, TARC budgets

Downtown hotels generated $8.2 million in local room taxes, plus $6.6

million in Kentucky hotel sales tax revenues. Hotels in zip code 40202 alone

accounted for 13 percent of all hotel sales in Kentucky.

Workers in downtown Louisville paid around $162 million in Kentucky income

taxes in 2011. If downtown Louisville were a county, it would rank 3rd among

Kentuckys 120 counties in terms of taxes paid by workers.

Real estate values in downtown have risen by over $600 million in the last

decade, now totaling about $1.5 billion.


33/36

Thank you!


34/36

Birmingham

Charlotte

Cincinnati

Columbus

Dayton

Greensboro

Indianapolis

Jacksonville

Kansas CityLouisville

Memphis

Nashville

Omaha

Raleigh

Richmond

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Downtown Jobs and Pay per Job, 2009

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, using zip code level data to approximate downtown geographies. Employment estimates

cover wage and salalry jobs only, exclude self-employed and some government workers.

JOBS (thousands)

AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY PER JOB (thousands)

Crosshairs centered on averages

(44,400 jobs and $56,100 average pay)

Lots of high paying

downtown jobs

Fewer downtown jobs, lower pay

reflecting smaller city sizes

Fewer downtown jobs,higher pay

Louisville close to average

in both jobs and pay


35/36

Downtown

Financial

Institutions

with at least

100 Employees

Professional,

Scientific, and

Technical

Service Firms

with at least 10

Management

Firms with at

least 10

Employees

Information

Firms with at

least 20

Employees

Hospitals with

at least 100

Beds

Birmingham 14 81 7 14 3

Charlotte 19 104 14 20 0

Cincinnati 20 200 43 28 0

Columbus 16 211 28 27 1

Dayton 3 55 8 8 0

Greensboro 3 45 8 5 2

Indianapolis 17 179 17 33 4

Jacksonville 10 81 9 7 0

Kansas City 19 164 32 42 4

Louisville 27 122 22 17 5

Memphis 8 63 5 7 3

Nashville 7 148 37 39 3

Omaha 12 38 14 10 0

Raleigh 4 66 4 6 1

Richmond 10 111 23 8 3

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2009, zip code statistics.

Downtown Office and Hospital Activity, 2009

Louisville rank: 1st

6th

6th

6th

1st

Highest concentrations generally in the three largest

metropolitan areas: Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Kansas City.


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1,013

3,087

3,8664,414 4,438

5,0565,539 5,739

6,046

7,759

8,870 8,901

9,758 10,225

10,997

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Non-Institutionalized Population, 2010



Note: The non-institutionalized population excludes those residing

in correctional, juvenile justiice, nursing, or other facilities without

freedom of movement, but does include college student housing

and shelters.

LDDC Measures 2012

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