LCC Simple Monte Carlo Model
60
spreadsheets in this file, show below. LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation For MonteCarloSimulationS TM ( Read this information from the lawyers ) Read this narrative )double click inside this box, cursor down or pull down block(. Do not delete this sheet, you'll need this information at a later ! This spreadsheet file is usable with ExcelTM version 2003 and above. The si not work in lower revisions. Excel is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. MonteCarloSimulationS is trademark pending by Barringer & Associates, Inc . Information in this software file is subject to change without notice for co change of features. Barringer & Associates, Inc. does not represent a commi of any changes. This software is furnished for demonstration purposes only. demonstration software must acknowledge Barringer & Associates, Inc. as the code. Copies must also include all narrative boxes with notices and instru . Examples in this file are intended for training and education in the use of simulations. No warranty of accuracy, applicability, correctness of use, or purpose is stated or implied for this software. As in the case of all engin exercise good judgment in the use of these software tools for safe and respo these Monte Carlo concepts. Use sound engineering and business judgments wh simulation even using probabilitics calculations. A full set of MonteCarloS 2003 spreadsheets are available at a price . This software shows, with a few simple models, how to study the outcome of e business problems using random events and engineering characteristics of how of Monte Carlo simulations are always different for each trial, however, res will show an overall direction and trend. No amount of simulations, based o concepts, can produce accurate simulations results even when wrappped in the results ." Software By : H. Paul Barringer, P.E . Barringer & Associat . P.O. Box 3985, Humble, TX Phone: 281-852-6810 e-mail: hpaul@barringer1. http://www.barringer1.com LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation Using A Fix Strategy For MonteCarloSimulationS T Version 1.0 January 15, 2007 Copyright 2007 by Barringer & Associates, . If the error message "Can't resolve circular reference.." appears, hit the Escape Key. This conflict will be removed when you click on the "Initialize Program.." button .
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Transcript of LCC Simple Monte Carlo Model
<----Pressing this button, or moving to other spreadsheets in this file, is acceptance of notices show below.
LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation For MonteCarloSimulationSTM
( Read this information from the lawyers)
Read this narrative )double click inside this box, cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block(. Do not delete this sheet, you'll need this information at a later date!
This spreadsheet file is usable with ExcelTM version 2003 and above. The simulation macros may not work in lower revisions. Excel is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. MonteCarloSimulationS is trademark pending by Barringer & Associates, Inc.
Information in this software file is subject to change without notice for correction of errors and change of features. Barringer & Associates, Inc. does not represent a commitment to notify users of any changes. This software is furnished for demonstration purposes only. Copies of this demonstration software must acknowledge Barringer & Associates, Inc. as the original source of the code. Copies must also include all narrative boxes with notices and instructions.
Examples in this file are intended for training and education in the use of Monte Carlo simulations. No warranty of accuracy, applicability, correctness of use, or throuroughness of purpose is stated or implied for this software. As in the case of all engineering tools, you must exercise good judgment in the use of these software tools for safe and responsible results using these Monte Carlo concepts. Use sound engineering and business judgments when studying any simulation even using probabilitics calculations. A full set of MonteCarloSimulationS for EXCEL 2003 spreadsheets are available at a price.
This software shows, with a few simple models, how to study the outcome of engineering and business problems using random events and engineering characteristics of how things fail. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are always different for each trial, however, results from many trials will show an overall direction and trend. No amount of simulations, based on wrong data or wrong concepts, can produce accurate simulations results even when wrappped in the cloak of "computer
results ."
Reduce uncertainties in your results. Study your data carefully which initiates your Monte Carlo studies. Understand how the data was obtained and what it is saying to you. Project uncertainties and unknowns in a prudent and wise manner. If your model doesn't produce believable results, try again until you produce real life results.
Use WinSMITH WeibullTM )$480(, WinSMITH VisualTM )$380(, which are statistical software packages trademarked by Fulton Findings, to study errors from multiple iterations. These software packages are available for sale from Barringer & Associates, Inc at the modest prices shown above plus shipping and handling. Call 281-852-6810 for details.
Formal Liability Statements )scroll down this information for formal statements(
WarrantyEXCEPT AS PROVIDED IN THIS SOFTWARE, BARRINGER & ASSOCIATES, INC. )"SELLER"( MAKES NO WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATIN OF ANY KIND, EXPRESSE OR IMPLIED, NOR DOES THE SELLER MAKE ANY AFFIRMATION OF FACT OR PROMISE WHICH EXTENDS BEYOND MODELS DESCRIBED IN THIS SOFTWARE. ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE,
ARE DISCLAIMED .
Seller disclaims any responsibility for model predictions which are based upon incorrect information or methods supplied at any time by Buyer.
IN NO EVENT WILL SELLER BE LIABLE FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, FOR LOSS OF ANTICIPATED PROFITS, OR FOR LOSS OF USE OF ANY EQUIPMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL SELLER’S LIABILITY TO BUYER, FOR ANY CAUSE WHATSOEVER, AND REGARDLESS OF THE FORM OF ACTION, EXCEED ANY AMOUNTS PAID BY BUYER TO SELLER FOR THE PREPARATION OF THE MODELS AS PROVIDED FOR IN THIS SOFTWARE.
IndemnityBuyer agrees that it will at its own expense, to the fullest extent permitted by law, indemnify and hold harmless Seller from and against any and all claims, damages, losses, attorney’s fees, and expenses arising out of or resulting from preparation or use of Models as specified in this Software, provided, however, that such claim, damage, loss or expense is attributable to bodily injury sickness, disease or death, or to injury or destruction of tangible property including loss of use resulting therefrom.
Such indemnification by Buyer shall include, but not be limited to, claims, damages, losses or expenses caused in whole or in part by negligent acts or omissions committed by Seller in connection with the preparation of the Software, or caused by anyone directly or indirectly employed by Seller or anyone for whose acts Seller may be liable, regardless of whether or not such claim, damage, loss or expense is caused in part by a party indemnified hereunder.
Applicable LawThe definition of terms used, the interpretation of the Software, and the rights of the parties will be construed under and governed by the laws of the State of Texas.
HPB January 15, 2007
Software By:H. Paul Barringer, P.E.Barringer & Associates, Inc.
P.O. Box 3985, Humble, TX 77347-3985 USAPhone: 281-852-6810 FAX: 281-852-3749e-mail: [email protected]://www.barringer1.com
LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation Using A Fix When Broken Strategy For MonteCarloSimulationSTM
Version 1.0 January 15, 2007 Copyright 2007 by Barringer & Associates, Inc.
If the error message "Can't resolve circular reference.." appears, hit the Escape Key. This conflict will be removed when you click on the "Initialize Program.." button.
LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation For MonteCarloSimulationSTM
( Read this information from the lawyers)
Read this narrative )double click inside this box, cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block(. Do not delete this sheet, you'll need this information at a later date!
This spreadsheet file is usable with ExcelTM version 2003 and above. The simulation macros may not work in lower revisions. Excel is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. MonteCarloSimulationS is trademark pending by Barringer & Associates, Inc.
Information in this software file is subject to change without notice for correction of errors and change of features. Barringer & Associates, Inc. does not represent a commitment to notify users of any changes. This software is furnished for demonstration purposes only. Copies of this demonstration software must acknowledge Barringer & Associates, Inc. as the original source of the code. Copies must also include all narrative boxes with notices and instructions.
Examples in this file are intended for training and education in the use of Monte Carlo simulations. No warranty of accuracy, applicability, correctness of use, or throuroughness of purpose is stated or implied for this software. As in the case of all engineering tools, you must exercise good judgment in the use of these software tools for safe and responsible results using these Monte Carlo concepts. Use sound engineering and business judgments when studying any simulation even using probabilitics calculations. A full set of MonteCarloSimulationS for EXCEL 2003 spreadsheets are available at a price.
This software shows, with a few simple models, how to study the outcome of engineering and business problems using random events and engineering characteristics of how things fail. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are always different for each trial, however, results from many trials will show an overall direction and trend. No amount of simulations, based on wrong data or wrong concepts, can produce accurate simulations results even when wrappped in the cloak of "computer
results ."
Reduce uncertainties in your results. Study your data carefully which initiates your Monte Carlo studies. Understand how the data was obtained and what it is saying to you. Project uncertainties and unknowns in a prudent and wise manner. If your model doesn't produce believable results, try again until you produce real life results.
Use WinSMITH WeibullTM )$480(, WinSMITH VisualTM )$380(, which are statistical software packages trademarked by Fulton Findings, to study errors from multiple iterations. These software packages are available for sale from Barringer & Associates, Inc at the modest prices shown above plus shipping and handling. Call 281-852-6810 for details.
Formal Liability Statements )scroll down this information for formal statements(
WarrantyEXCEPT AS PROVIDED IN THIS SOFTWARE, BARRINGER & ASSOCIATES, INC. )"SELLER"( MAKES NO WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATIN OF ANY KIND, EXPRESSE OR IMPLIED, NOR DOES THE SELLER MAKE ANY AFFIRMATION OF FACT OR PROMISE WHICH EXTENDS BEYOND MODELS DESCRIBED IN THIS SOFTWARE. ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE,
ARE DISCLAIMED .
Seller disclaims any responsibility for model predictions which are based upon incorrect information or methods supplied at any time by Buyer.
IN NO EVENT WILL SELLER BE LIABLE FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, FOR LOSS OF ANTICIPATED PROFITS, OR FOR LOSS OF USE OF ANY EQUIPMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL SELLER’S LIABILITY TO BUYER, FOR ANY CAUSE WHATSOEVER, AND REGARDLESS OF THE FORM OF ACTION, EXCEED ANY AMOUNTS PAID BY BUYER TO SELLER FOR THE PREPARATION OF THE MODELS AS PROVIDED FOR IN THIS SOFTWARE.
IndemnityBuyer agrees that it will at its own expense, to the fullest extent permitted by law, indemnify and hold harmless Seller from and against any and all claims, damages, losses, attorney’s fees, and expenses arising out of or resulting from preparation or use of Models as specified in this Software, provided, however, that such claim, damage, loss or expense is attributable to bodily injury sickness, disease or death, or to injury or destruction of tangible property including loss of use resulting therefrom.
Such indemnification by Buyer shall include, but not be limited to, claims, damages, losses or expenses caused in whole or in part by negligent acts or omissions committed by Seller in connection with the preparation of the Software, or caused by anyone directly or indirectly employed by Seller or anyone for whose acts Seller may be liable, regardless of whether or not such claim, damage, loss or expense is caused in part by a party indemnified hereunder.
Applicable LawThe definition of terms used, the interpretation of the Software, and the rights of the parties will be construed under and governed by the laws of the State of Texas.
HPB January 15, 2007
<----Pressing this button, or moving to other spreadsheets in this file, is acceptance of notices show below.
LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation For MonteCarloSimulationSTM
( Read this information from the lawyers)
Read this narrative )double click inside this box, cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block(. Do not delete this sheet, you'll need this information at a later date!
This spreadsheet file is usable with ExcelTM version 2003 and above. The simulation macros may not work in lower revisions. Excel is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. MonteCarloSimulationS is trademark pending by Barringer & Associates, Inc.
Information in this software file is subject to change without notice for correction of errors and change of features. Barringer & Associates, Inc. does not represent a commitment to notify users of any changes. This software is furnished for demonstration purposes only. Copies of this demonstration software must acknowledge Barringer & Associates, Inc. as the original source of the code. Copies must also include all narrative boxes with notices and instructions.
Examples in this file are intended for training and education in the use of Monte Carlo simulations. No warranty of accuracy, applicability, correctness of use, or throuroughness of purpose is stated or implied for this software. As in the case of all engineering tools, you must exercise good judgment in the use of these software tools for safe and responsible results using these Monte Carlo concepts. Use sound engineering and business judgments when studying any simulation even using probabilitics calculations. A full set of MonteCarloSimulationS for EXCEL 2003 spreadsheets are available at a price.
This software shows, with a few simple models, how to study the outcome of engineering and business problems using random events and engineering characteristics of how things fail. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are always different for each trial, however, results from many trials will show an overall direction and trend. No amount of simulations, based on wrong data or wrong concepts, can produce accurate simulations results even when wrappped in the cloak of "computer
results ."
Reduce uncertainties in your results. Study your data carefully which initiates your Monte Carlo studies. Understand how the data was obtained and what it is saying to you. Project uncertainties and unknowns in a prudent and wise manner. If your model doesn't produce believable results, try again until you produce real life results.
Use WinSMITH WeibullTM )$480(, WinSMITH VisualTM )$380(, which are statistical software packages trademarked by Fulton Findings, to study errors from multiple iterations. These software packages are available for sale from Barringer & Associates, Inc at the modest prices shown above plus shipping and handling. Call 281-852-6810 for details.
Formal Liability Statements )scroll down this information for formal statements(
WarrantyEXCEPT AS PROVIDED IN THIS SOFTWARE, BARRINGER & ASSOCIATES, INC. )"SELLER"( MAKES NO WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATIN OF ANY KIND, EXPRESSE OR IMPLIED, NOR DOES THE SELLER MAKE ANY AFFIRMATION OF FACT OR PROMISE WHICH EXTENDS BEYOND MODELS DESCRIBED IN THIS SOFTWARE. ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE,
ARE DISCLAIMED .
Seller disclaims any responsibility for model predictions which are based upon incorrect information or methods supplied at any time by Buyer.
IN NO EVENT WILL SELLER BE LIABLE FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, FOR LOSS OF ANTICIPATED PROFITS, OR FOR LOSS OF USE OF ANY EQUIPMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL SELLER’S LIABILITY TO BUYER, FOR ANY CAUSE WHATSOEVER, AND REGARDLESS OF THE FORM OF ACTION, EXCEED ANY AMOUNTS PAID BY BUYER TO SELLER FOR THE PREPARATION OF THE MODELS AS PROVIDED FOR IN THIS SOFTWARE.
IndemnityBuyer agrees that it will at its own expense, to the fullest extent permitted by law, indemnify and hold harmless Seller from and against any and all claims, damages, losses, attorney’s fees, and expenses arising out of or resulting from preparation or use of Models as specified in this Software, provided, however, that such claim, damage, loss or expense is attributable to bodily injury sickness, disease or death, or to injury or destruction of tangible property including loss of use resulting therefrom.
Such indemnification by Buyer shall include, but not be limited to, claims, damages, losses or expenses caused in whole or in part by negligent acts or omissions committed by Seller in connection with the preparation of the Software, or caused by anyone directly or indirectly employed by Seller or anyone for whose acts Seller may be liable, regardless of whether or not such claim, damage, loss or expense is caused in part by a party indemnified hereunder.
Applicable LawThe definition of terms used, the interpretation of the Software, and the rights of the parties will be construed under and governed by the laws of the State of Texas.
HPB January 15, 2007
Software By:H. Paul Barringer, P.E.Barringer & Associates, Inc.
P.O. Box 3985, Humble, TX 77347-3985 USAPhone: 281-852-6810 FAX: 281-852-3749e-mail: [email protected]://www.barringer1.com
LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation Using A Fix When Broken Strategy For MonteCarloSimulationSTM
Version 1.0 January 15, 2007 Copyright 2007 by Barringer & Associates, Inc.
LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation For MonteCarloSimulationSTM
( Read this information from the lawyers)
Read this narrative )double click inside this box, cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block(. Do not delete this sheet, you'll need this information at a later date!
This spreadsheet file is usable with ExcelTM version 2003 and above. The simulation macros may not work in lower revisions. Excel is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. MonteCarloSimulationS is trademark pending by Barringer & Associates, Inc.
Information in this software file is subject to change without notice for correction of errors and change of features. Barringer & Associates, Inc. does not represent a commitment to notify users of any changes. This software is furnished for demonstration purposes only. Copies of this demonstration software must acknowledge Barringer & Associates, Inc. as the original source of the code. Copies must also include all narrative boxes with notices and instructions.
Examples in this file are intended for training and education in the use of Monte Carlo simulations. No warranty of accuracy, applicability, correctness of use, or throuroughness of purpose is stated or implied for this software. As in the case of all engineering tools, you must exercise good judgment in the use of these software tools for safe and responsible results using these Monte Carlo concepts. Use sound engineering and business judgments when studying any simulation even using probabilitics calculations. A full set of MonteCarloSimulationS for EXCEL 2003 spreadsheets are available at a price.
This software shows, with a few simple models, how to study the outcome of engineering and business problems using random events and engineering characteristics of how things fail. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are always different for each trial, however, results from many trials will show an overall direction and trend. No amount of simulations, based on wrong data or wrong concepts, can produce accurate simulations results even when wrappped in the cloak of "computer
results ."
Reduce uncertainties in your results. Study your data carefully which initiates your Monte Carlo studies. Understand how the data was obtained and what it is saying to you. Project uncertainties and unknowns in a prudent and wise manner. If your model doesn't produce believable results, try again until you produce real life results.
Use WinSMITH WeibullTM )$480(, WinSMITH VisualTM )$380(, which are statistical software packages trademarked by Fulton Findings, to study errors from multiple iterations. These software packages are available for sale from Barringer & Associates, Inc at the modest prices shown above plus shipping and handling. Call 281-852-6810 for details.
Formal Liability Statements )scroll down this information for formal statements(
WarrantyEXCEPT AS PROVIDED IN THIS SOFTWARE, BARRINGER & ASSOCIATES, INC. )"SELLER"( MAKES NO WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATIN OF ANY KIND, EXPRESSE OR IMPLIED, NOR DOES THE SELLER MAKE ANY AFFIRMATION OF FACT OR PROMISE WHICH EXTENDS BEYOND MODELS DESCRIBED IN THIS SOFTWARE. ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE,
ARE DISCLAIMED .
Seller disclaims any responsibility for model predictions which are based upon incorrect information or methods supplied at any time by Buyer.
IN NO EVENT WILL SELLER BE LIABLE FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, FOR LOSS OF ANTICIPATED PROFITS, OR FOR LOSS OF USE OF ANY EQUIPMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL SELLER’S LIABILITY TO BUYER, FOR ANY CAUSE WHATSOEVER, AND REGARDLESS OF THE FORM OF ACTION, EXCEED ANY AMOUNTS PAID BY BUYER TO SELLER FOR THE PREPARATION OF THE MODELS AS PROVIDED FOR IN THIS SOFTWARE.
IndemnityBuyer agrees that it will at its own expense, to the fullest extent permitted by law, indemnify and hold harmless Seller from and against any and all claims, damages, losses, attorney’s fees, and expenses arising out of or resulting from preparation or use of Models as specified in this Software, provided, however, that such claim, damage, loss or expense is attributable to bodily injury sickness, disease or death, or to injury or destruction of tangible property including loss of use resulting therefrom.
Such indemnification by Buyer shall include, but not be limited to, claims, damages, losses or expenses caused in whole or in part by negligent acts or omissions committed by Seller in connection with the preparation of the Software, or caused by anyone directly or indirectly employed by Seller or anyone for whose acts Seller may be liable, regardless of whether or not such claim, damage, loss or expense is caused in part by a party indemnified hereunder.
Applicable LawThe definition of terms used, the interpretation of the Software, and the rights of the parties will be construed under and governed by the laws of the State of Texas.
HPB January 15, 2007
Set up for Monte Carlo simulation <--You can change items in yellow
FIX WHEN BROKEN REPAIR STRATEGYInput Data For Simulation $ 30,000.00 <--Capital $'s
Item b
1 Electricity, $/yr $ 16,500.00 2 Maint. PMs, $/yr $ 600.00 3 Operations PMs, $/yr $ 350.00 4 Waste Cost, $/yr $ 100.00 5 Seals 4.00 1.40 $ 3,800.00 86 Shaft 18.00 1.20 $ 1,400.00 107 Impeller 12.00 2.50 $ 2,800.00 88 Housing 18.00 1.30 $ 5,400.00 149 Pump Bearing 4.00 1.30 $ 1,500.00 810 Coupling 8.00 2.00 $ 2,000.00 811 Motor Rotor 25.00 1.00 $ 3,000.00 4812 Motor Stator 25.00 1.00 $ 8,000.00 24013 Motor Bearings 20.00 1.30 $ 1,500.00 814 0 0.00 0.00 $ - 020 <--Project life )<= 35 years( Iterations to complete--> 1,000,000
12% <--Discount rate )usually ~12%( Number of iterations accumulated--> 1,000,00038% <--Tax rate )usually ~38%( Net Present Value--> -$107,017
Annual failure rate-->Annual downtime hours-->
Annual Availability-->Annual Reliability-->
Cost Element Name (Labor + Matl's + Expense)
h, years
Cost $/failure or $/year
Downtime Hours
For fixed costs per year items.
No downtime hours or cost for annual cost elements
Life Cycle Cost WorksheetDiscount Rate (%)--> 12%
-$107,017
Net
Pre
sent
Val
ues
Bas
ed o
n M
onte
Car
lo S
imul
atio
ns
Capital Costs:
Capital Acquisition Costs
Acquisition Costs: Program Management Costs Engineering Design Costs Engineering Data Costs Spare Parts & Logistics Costs Facilities & Construction Costs Initial Training Costs Technical Data Costs Documentation Costs Annual recuring costs Other periodic costs Disposal Costs
Savings: Annual Savings )use positive #s(
NPV & IRR Calculations:Capital equipment
Annualized Costs for Life Cycle Cost S=
Net
Pre
sent
Val
ues
Bas
ed o
n M
onte
Car
lo S
imul
atio
ns
CostsSavingsStraight Line DepreciationProfit Before TaxesTax Provision @ 38% Of Profit Before TaxNet Income can be profit or lossAdd Back DepreciationCash Flow )Net Income + Depreciation(Discount Factors @ 12%Present ValueNet Present Value -$107,017Internal Rate Return
Year-->
<--You can change items in yellow
Random Ages-To-Failure for 50 failures --> Look to the right for cum failures
1 2 3 4
100 7.00 8.05 2.08 2.38100 53.40 30.23 44.62 5.22100 12.72 8.62 6.44 13.92100 6.55 59.69 7.37 36.29100 4.26 7.33 6.21 5.34100 2.87 2.21 9.18 8.55100 14.00 7.21 29.03 22.38100 7.87 8.91 0.26 17.52100 11.34 11.36 26.99 5.20
002:51:56 PM <--Start Time For Simulation
0:00:00 <--Time Remaining To Complete SimulationProject Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
1 2 3 4
0 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 0
Annual failure rate--> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000Annual downtime hours--> 0 0 0 0
Annual Availability--> 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%Annual Reliability--> 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
$/hour Of Downtime
No downtime hours or cost for annual cost elements
Cum
ulat
ive
Failu
res
Rec
orde
d Fo
r Eac
h Ye
ar
From
Mon
te C
arlo
Si
mul
atio
ns
1 2 3 4
$ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00
Project Life (35 yrs max)--> 20 Tax Provision (%)--><--Net Present Value <--Internal Rate Of Return
0 1 2 3 4
$30,000.00
$17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00
0 1 2 3 4$30,000
Ann
ualiz
ed C
osts
Fro
m F
ailu
res
Rec
orde
d Fo
r Eac
h Ye
ar F
rom
Mon
te
Car
lo S
imul
atio
ns
Annualized Costs for Life Cycle Cost S=
$0 $17,550 $17,550 $17,550 $17,550$0 $0 $0 $0
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500$0 -$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050$0 $7,239 $7,239 $7,239 $7,239$0 -$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500-$30,000 -$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311
1.0000 0.8929 0.7972 0.7118 0.6355-$30,000 -$9,206 -$8,220 -$7,339 -$6,553
<--Requires at least one positive and one negative number in the present value row 32
0 1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9
4.83 3.05 4.26 4.05 1.575.54 21.56 11.68 21.63 3.617.20 7.02 4.92 10.70 10.00
13.36 23.07 23.22 15.74 27.610.92 4.24 3.85 0.60 0.647.28 8.65 4.84 2.02 8.808.38 87.66 29.42 4.94 94.88
29.63 38.31 12.98 11.21 5.8026.90 17.38 5.32 7.22 36.62
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
5 6 7 8 9
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0 0
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
5 6 7 8 9
$ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00
38%
5 6 7 8 9
$17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00
5 6 7 8 9
$17,550 $17,550 $17,550 $17,550 $17,550$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500-$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050
$7,239 $7,239 $7,239 $7,239 $7,239-$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500-$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311
0.5674 0.5066 0.4523 0.4039 0.3606-$5,851 -$5,224 -$4,664 -$4,164 -$3,718
5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14
2.79 3.31 3.63 2.97 1.043.75 32.41 8.69 8.83 5.956.80 6.28 7.45 17.51 9.068.54 8.54 5.09 22.08 32.293.25 2.35 3.47 8.55 3.507.49 1.59 6.23 8.81 6.14
17.89 18.41 26.26 33.82 5.603.03 25.29 70.57 39.32 17.59
10.84 15.17 31.47 7.74 8.71
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
10 11 12 13 14
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0 0
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
10 11 12 13 14
$ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00
10 11 12 13 14
$17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00
10 11 12 13 14
$17,550 $17,550 $17,550 $17,550 $17,550$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500-$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050
$7,239 $7,239 $7,239 $7,239 $7,239-$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500-$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311
0.3220 0.2875 0.2567 0.2292 0.2046-$3,320 -$2,964 -$2,647 -$2,363 -$2,110
10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19
8.89 3.91 1.77 5.02 8.080.57 8.25 6.74 7.76 0.278.31 11.15 7.96 12.37 20.41
10.99 13.32 39.56 29.35 10.184.19 3.00 6.03 4.47 0.86
12.37 6.64 8.68 4.85 9.379.84 55.08 2.41 14.64 1.86
15.10 60.00 8.21 5.26 50.622.35 47.78 18.51 26.72 8.36
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
15 16 17 18 19
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0 0
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
15 16 17 18 19
$ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00
15 16 17 18 19
$17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00
15 16 17 18 19
$17,550 $17,550 $17,550 $17,550 $17,550$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500-$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050 -$19,050
$7,239 $7,239 $7,239 $7,239 $7,239-$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811 -$11,811
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500-$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311 -$10,311
0.1827 0.1631 0.1456 0.1300 0.1161-$1,884 -$1,682 -$1,502 -$1,341 -$1,197
15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24
3.21 1.42 2.05 7.61 1.6937.16 28.37 0.96 2.42 12.476.72 13.82 20.66 17.88 17.89
18.31 38.30 12.88 18.78 4.714.89 2.40 1.14 2.70 1.961.87 11.20 5.86 10.13 10.07
24.66 7.49 15.83 45.44 1.105.60 23.48 23.62 65.73 8.69
16.81 2.78 73.52 14.24 28.70
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
20 21 22 23 24
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0 0
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
20 21 22 23 24
$ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00
20 21 22 23 24
$17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00
20 21 22 23 24
$17,550$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$1,500-$19,050
$7,239-$11,811
$1,500-$10,311
0.1037-$1,069
20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29
0.90 2.18 9.94 6.00 6.2213.66 20.76 5.76 13.35 15.217.63 5.19 10.34 7.35 14.11
20.15 10.36 54.70 5.16 37.560.69 2.25 4.27 4.46 0.985.84 10.19 6.77 4.74 10.767.18 33.80 53.27 38.95 23.08
15.08 5.08 24.53 52.83 0.834.69 6.57 8.81 4.75 0.32
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
25 26 27 28 29
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0 0
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
25 26 27 28 29
$ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00
25 26 27 28 29
$17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00
25 26 27 28 29
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
25 26 27 28 29
30 31 32 33 34
1.81 5.54 10.31 8.15 2.924.67 7.25 16.67 11.86 2.198.96 14.07 3.79 10.15 6.29
20.15 10.56 50.45 24.75 5.683.65 1.09 9.86 5.16 1.183.56 10.20 2.50 14.82 5.833.36 28.41 18.25 0.85 31.766.55 12.82 10.77 4.09 27.913.10 23.81 41.24 40.44 23.52
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
30 31 32 33 34
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0 0
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
30 31 32 33 34
$ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00
30 31 32 33 34
$17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00 $17,550.00
30 31 32 33 34
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
30 31 32 33 34
35 36 37 38 39
3.98 4.23 13.06 1.76 13.576.56 11.92 9.65 19.64 14.853.75 17.16 7.20 13.53 18.302.05 20.43 38.51 2.12 11.223.22 6.87 3.56 1.03 1.977.98 4.64 8.54 6.01 3.549.33 46.96 23.59 5.05 29.18
13.15 24.74 78.36 1.20 15.508.44 12.73 12.56 38.23 7.99
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
35 36 37 38 39
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0 0
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
35 36 37 38 39
$ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00
35
$17,550.00
35
$0
35
40 41 42 43 44
0.66 5.90 3.94 9.19 2.8747.06 0.91 4.42 4.28 20.7112.98 14.77 11.91 15.09 9.1063.96 14.75 28.55 13.31 31.650.10 11.86 0.91 0.65 2.575.95 7.22 10.74 3.82 6.55
62.11 50.95 3.97 25.06 63.595.33 25.89 60.74 6.60 131.09
21.35 62.36 42.53 24.22 9.14
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
40 41 42 43 44
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0 0
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
40 41 42 43 44
$ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00
45 46 47 48 49
2.13 0.70 2.34 8.27 1.879.25 28.13 28.56 19.35 22.15
16.53 6.68 6.87 16.28 9.6818.95 32.27 11.59 1.58 15.985.12 18.76 1.38 0.59 4.754.06 3.06 10.05 12.27 4.116.29 27.68 32.67 10.50 44.577.03 16.76 3.86 64.18 9.51
16.03 63.23 4.67 54.81 28.62
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
45 46 47 48 49
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0 0
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
45 46 47 48 49
$ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00 $ 17,550.00
Cum Ages-To-Failure (years) --> Look to the right for failures put into correct time buckets
50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
16.16 7.00 15.05 17.13 19.51 24.35 27.40 31.6612.56 53.40 83.63 128.25 133.47 139.01 160.58 172.269.97 12.72 21.34 27.78 41.70 48.90 55.91 60.835.44 6.55 66.25 73.62 109.91 123.28 146.35 169.571.14 4.26 11.59 17.80 23.14 24.06 28.29 32.155.49 2.87 5.07 14.25 22.81 30.09 38.74 43.59
16.40 14.00 21.21 50.23 72.62 81.00 168.66 198.0821.59 7.87 16.78 17.04 34.55 64.18 102.49 115.4736.00 11.34 22.70 49.69 54.89 81.79 99.17 104.49
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years Use this information for reset of macros
50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.00000
100.00%100.00%
Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years
50
$ 16,500.00 $ 600.00 $ 350.00 $ 100.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,550.00
Cum Ages-To-Failure (years) --> Look to the right for failures put into correct time buckets
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
35.71 37.28 40.07 43.37 47.01 49.98 51.02 59.91 63.82 65.59193.89 197.50 201.24 233.65 242.34 251.17 257.12 257.68 265.93 272.6871.53 81.53 88.33 94.61 102.06 119.57 128.63 136.93 148.09 156.05
185.32 212.92 221.47 230.01 235.10 257.18 289.47 300.46 313.78 353.3332.75 33.39 36.64 38.99 42.46 51.00 54.50 58.69 61.69 67.7245.61 54.41 61.90 63.49 69.72 78.53 84.67 97.04 103.68 112.36
203.02 297.89 315.78 334.19 360.44 394.27 399.87 409.71 464.78 467.19126.68 132.48 135.51 160.80 231.37 270.69 288.28 303.38 363.39 371.59111.70 148.32 159.16 174.33 205.79 213.54 222.25 224.60 272.38 290.88
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
70.62 78.69 81.90 83.32 85.37 92.98 94.67 95.57 97.75 107.69280.44 280.71 317.87 346.24 347.20 349.62 362.09 375.75 396.51 402.28168.42 188.83 195.55 209.37 230.03 247.91 265.80 273.43 278.61 288.95382.68 392.86 411.17 449.47 462.34 481.13 485.84 505.98 516.35 571.0572.19 73.05 77.94 80.35 81.48 84.18 86.14 86.83 89.08 93.35
117.21 126.58 128.45 139.65 145.50 155.63 165.70 171.53 181.72 188.49481.83 483.69 508.35 515.84 531.67 577.11 578.21 585.39 619.19 672.46376.85 427.46 433.06 456.54 480.16 545.89 554.59 569.67 574.75 599.29317.60 325.96 342.77 345.56 419.08 433.32 462.01 466.71 473.28 482.09
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
113.69 119.91 121.72 127.26 137.57 145.72 148.64 152.62 156.86 169.92415.62 430.83 435.50 442.76 459.43 471.29 473.48 480.04 491.96 501.61296.31 310.42 319.38 333.45 337.24 347.39 353.68 357.43 374.59 381.80576.21 613.77 633.92 644.48 694.93 719.68 725.36 727.41 747.83 786.3497.81 98.79 102.44 103.53 113.39 118.55 119.74 122.95 129.82 133.38
193.24 203.99 207.55 217.75 220.25 235.07 240.90 248.87 253.52 262.06711.42 734.49 737.85 766.27 784.52 785.37 817.13 826.46 873.42 897.01652.12 652.94 659.50 672.31 683.08 687.17 715.08 728.23 752.97 831.33486.84 487.16 490.27 514.07 555.32 595.76 619.28 627.72 640.44 653.01
28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
171.68 185.25 185.91 191.81 195.75 204.94 207.81 209.95 210.64 212.99521.25 536.10 583.16 584.07 588.49 592.77 613.48 622.73 650.86 679.42395.33 413.63 426.61 441.38 453.29 468.39 477.48 494.01 500.69 507.56788.46 799.69 863.64 878.39 906.94 920.25 951.90 970.85 1003.13 1014.72134.41 136.38 136.48 148.35 149.26 149.91 152.48 157.59 176.35 177.73268.07 271.61 277.57 284.78 295.52 299.34 305.89 309.95 313.01 323.06902.06 931.24 993.35 1044.30 1048.27 1073.33 1136.93 1143.21 1170.90 1203.56832.53 848.04 853.36 879.25 939.99 946.60 1077.69 1084.72 1101.48 1105.34691.23 699.22 720.57 782.93 825.46 849.68 858.83 874.86 938.09 942.76
38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Number of failures recorded in each year of operation
48 49 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
221.25 223.12 239.28 0 0 0 0 0 0698.78 720.93 733.49 0 0 0 0 0 0523.84 533.52 543.50 0 0 0 0 0 0
1016.30 1032.28 1037.72 0 0 0 0 0 0178.32 183.07 184.21 0 0 0 0 1 0335.34 339.44 344.93 0 0 1 0 0 1
1214.07 1258.64 1275.04 0 0 0 0 0 01169.52 1179.03 1200.62 0 0 0 0 0 0997.56 1026.19 1062.19 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
48 49 50
0 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 00 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 00 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 01 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 00 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 00 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Use this colum for reset of macros
47 48 49 50 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
46 47 48 49 50
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
Cost is from Monte Carlo Simulation, H59:BE59# iterations--> 1000000
Year--> 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Cost--> $19,003 $19,548 $19,823 $20,010 $20,142 $20,235 $20,312 $20,364
0 10 20 30 40 50 60$18,000
$18,500
$19,000
$19,500
$20,000
$20,500
$21,000
Cost vs Time
Years
$/Ye
ar
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18$20,413 $20,436 $20,453 $20,456 $20,468 $20,462 $20,455 $20,457 $20,461 $20,449
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28$20,456 $20,459 $20,457 $20,459 $20,459 $20,464 $20,464 $20,469 $20,472 $20,474
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38$20,472 $20,474 $20,470 $20,469 $20,471 $20,474 $20,471 $20,470 $20,473 $20,467
39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48$20,475 $20,471 $20,475 $20,469 $20,471 $20,470 $20,476 $20,467 $20,476 $20,468
49 50$20,470 $20,470
