LCA and Input-Output Analysis: GDI Experience
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Transcript of LCA and Input-Output Analysis: GDI Experience
LCA and Input-Output Analysis: GDI Experience
Christopher WeberAsst. Research Professor, Green Design InstituteCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA USA
Outline Why Life Cycle? Driving feature: Greenhouse Gas Assessments Types of Life Cycle Assessment: strengths and weaknesses Process LCA Input-Output Analysis (IO-LCA) examples of different types of assessments from our lab
General thoughts on sustainability accounting for biofuels Summary
LCA in Decision-making: Why and why not? Recent interest in including life cycle info in policy and
decision-making LCA has much to offer for policy Comparative assessments can often only be done reasonably at
life cycle level (ex: corn ethanol) Supply chains are important for impacts of policy (ie,
implications of carbon pricing)
However . . . LCA is complicated! To compare between products, completeness, specificity, and
comparability all very important Uncertainty and variability—how to deal?
3
An example of the problem
Not including indirect land use change!
Farrell et al (2006) in Science
Policies involving Carbon Footprinting US and EU considering border tariffs on embodied CO2
as protection for heavy industry Low Carbon Fuel Standard (California) and Renewable
Fuels Standard (US, EISA 2007) Both contain standards written in life cycle terms, controversial Indirect Land Use Change (iLUC) particularly controversial
Carbon labeling taking hold in several markets Led by large retailers (W-M, Tesco) for consumer products in
US and UK Japan, Germany, Sweden, California have all considered
national/state policies All assume a single answer, no uncertainty/variability
The Big Driver: Greenhouse Gas Accounting aka carbon footprinting
Global GHG Emissions
Geographical Inventories by country
(UNFCCC)
Emissions by company (WRI/WBCSD)
Emissions by product (ISO, BSI,
WRI/WBCSD)
Project Accounting (CDM, WRI/WBCSD)
Current Happenings in Carbon Footprinting
New and Developing standards work PAS 2050—British Standards and Carbon Trust UK ISO 14025 series—standards for type III environmental
declarations WRI/WBCSD developing product and supply chain standards
(GDI highly involved)
Carbon Disclosure Project, Climate Registry, and voluntary markets continue to grow
EU ETS trading strong and current debates about phase III goals (20% RPS, 20% CO2 reduction by 2020)
Product Accounting LOTS of people working on this ISO 14044 series for LCA (more than just GHG) Carbon Trust/BSI: PAS 2050 ISO 14025: Environmental Product Declarations Coming ISO Standard on product accounting (2011) Now WRI/WBCSD GHG Protocol writing one ALL in addition to policy bodies (CARB, EPA, govts)
Overall, new standards look similar to ISO 14044 but more specific for GHGs
Product Accounting Issues System Boundary selection—use of PLCA vs. matrix
PCLA vs. HLCA Capital equipment accounting Allocation of co-products: attributional vs. consequential End of Life accounting—esp recycling Land Use Change—direct vs. indirect Uncertainty and Variability analysis—require? How? Primary vs. secondary data requirements Geographic and Temporal averaging
Types of LCAs: Strengths and Weaknesses in GDI’s experience
Types of Life Cycle Assessments What is purpose of Analysis? Tool use should depend on purpose of analysis LCA in policy, internal corporate use, public reporting, etc. all
require different levels of precision In any LCA, balance between primary data, secondary data, and
different levels of data quality
General Classes of Analyses Process LCA—ISO 14044, PAS 2050, etc. Input-output analysis—economic tool developed in 1950’s for
top-down economic modeling Hybrid LCA—Combination of strengths of both approaches
Advantages of Process vs. IO Conventional PLCA: Process and product specific Detailed improvement and scenario analysis Analysis of existing and future products Easy to link to functional unit
IOA Economy-wide impacts (complete system boundary) Publicly available data, reproducible results Data available on every commodity
Disadvantages of Process vs. IO Conventional PLCA: Subjective System Boundary Can take substantial time and money Proprietary data issues Substantial uncertainty in many numbers
IOA Aggregation Price uncertainty (linking to functional unit difficult) Data time issues (5 years to obtain typical) Uncertainty in data
In summary. . . Process LCA Advantages: Specific process-level data, functional units easy Disadvantages: Arbitrary System Boundaries, Proprietary data,
can take substantial time and money Typical uses: product footprints, phys/chem process analysis,
policy and disclosure-level comparisons Input-Output Analysis Advantages: Fast, Complete, can model product and social
impacts Disadvantages: Aggregation, Upfront learning, Functional units
difficult Typical uses: large-scale analyses of many products/services,
sustainable consumption research, structural economics
Current Hierarchy: GHGP Data Quality Tree
Examples and Experience in PLCA and IOA
Examples: GDI Process LCA
Electricity uncertainty in the US
Local CO2 –US CO2
SO2CO2
NOx
Examples: GDI Input-output analysis Total consumption by US households
0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0
Food/NalcBev
AlcBev,Tobacco
PrivateTransport
Housing
Furnish,Equip,Maint
Utilities
Rec/Culture
Mis Goods/Services
Clothing/Footwear
Communications
Health
Education
ton CO2e/cap-yr
DirectCO2
CO2
CH4
N2O
HFCs
Examples: GDI Input-output analysis Embodied CO2 in global trade: Annex B vs. non-B
Examples: GDI Input-output analysis Production and Consumption-based US Land use
Examples: GDI Hybrid LCA
LCA and IOA in biofuel sustainability assessment
Process LCA has the specificity necessary to analyze: Different production pathways Different feedstocks
IOA still may have something to offer Land use—huge issue in LCA/IOA today Socioeconomic impacts:
economic production related to infrastructure investment and policy decisions
Job creation
Both methods have strengths to exploit for sustainability analysis
Questions
Contact: [email protected]