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Lawrence BujaNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado
Lawrence BujaNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado
CAM T341- Jim Hack
Climate Modeling in a Changed WorldNew Directions and Requirements for Climate
following the breakthrough IPCC AR4
Climate Modeling in a Changed WorldNew Directions and Requirements for Climate
following the breakthrough IPCC AR4
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“Science exists to serve human welfare. It’s wonderful to have the opportunity given us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity.”
Walter Orr Roberts
Lawrence BujaNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado
Lawrence BujaNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado
Climate Modeling in a Changed WorldNew Directions and Requirements for Climate
following the breakthrough IPCC AR4
Climate Modeling in a Changed WorldNew Directions and Requirements for Climate
following the breakthrough IPCC AR4
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NCAR
NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4
A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past &
Geoengineering
Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5
+ Data: Building the Earth System Grid
+ Social Science @ NCAR
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NCAR Scientific facilities
2. Supercomputer/Data/Network/Support
3. Large-scale National Scientific Development Environment
National Science Foundation FFRDC- 900 Staff, 500 Scientists/Engineers- 4 Boulder-area campuses- Governed by > 70 universities
1. Advanced Observational Facilities
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NCARTra
nsp
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Tra
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For
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t Le
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Tim
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orec
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Lea
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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Pro
tect
ion
of
Pro
tect
ion
of
Life
& P
rop
ert
yL
ife &
Pro
pe
rty
Pro
tect
ion
of
Pro
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ion
of
Life
& P
rop
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yL
ife &
Pro
pe
rty
Sp
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S
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ce
Op
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tion
Op
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tion
Sp
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S
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Op
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Op
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Re
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Re
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ea
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Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
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Eco
syst
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Eco
syst
em
Sta
te/L
oca
l S
tate
/Lo
cal
Pla
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ing
Pla
nn
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Sta
te/L
oca
l S
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/Lo
cal
Pla
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Pla
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En
viro
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en
tE
nvi
ron
me
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En
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en
tE
nvi
ron
me
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Flo
od
Miti
ga
tion
F
loo
d M
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atio
n
& N
avi
ga
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& N
avi
ga
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Flo
od
Miti
ga
tion
F
loo
d M
itig
atio
n
& N
avi
ga
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& N
avi
ga
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Ag
ricu
lture
Ag
ricu
lture
Ag
ricu
lture
Ag
ricu
lture
Re
serv
oir
Re
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Co
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ol
Co
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Re
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Re
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Co
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En
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En
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Co
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Benefits
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
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Fire
We
ath
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Fire
We
ath
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He
alth
He
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He
alth
He
alth
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
Initial Conditions
Boundary Conditions
Weather vs Climate
Weather Prediction
ClimatePrediction
ClimateChange
Trenberth
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The Earth Climate System
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Timeline of Climate Model Development
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ChemistryClimate
ChemistryClimate
BioGeoChem
BioGeoChem
Software EngineeringSoftware Engineering
Climate VariabilityClimate Variability
Polar ClimatePolar
ClimateLand ModelLand Model
PaleoClimate PaleoClimate
Ocean Model Ocean Model
CCSM Working GroupsCCSM Working GroupsCCSM Working GroupsCCSM Working Groups DevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopment
ApplicationApplication ApplicationApplication
WACCMWACCMAtm
Model Atm
Model
Climate ChangeClimate Change
CCSM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
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CAM T341- Jim Hack
What does a climate model look like?
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Climate of the last Millennium
Caspar AmmannNCAR/CGD
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Stage 2. Historical: 1870-2000 run using time-evolving, observed, Solar, GHG, Volcanoes, O3
1870
2000
2. Historical
Stage 3. Future Scenarios: 4 2000-2100 IPCC Scenarios from end of historical run
Commit 2100
B1 2100
A1B 2100
A1 2100
3. Future Scenarios
01000
Years
TS
(G
loba
lly a
vera
ged
sur
face
te
mpe
ratu
re)
Stage 1. 1870 control run: 1000 years with constant 1870 forcing: Solar, GHG, Volcanic Sulfate, O3
1. 1870 control
a b c d e
18701870 1870 1870
Probablistic Climate Simulations
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NCAR
NSF/DOE IPCC ProjectNCAR, ORNL, NERSC, ES
6-Year Timeline2002: Climate Model/Data-systems development2003: Climate Model Control Simulations2004: IPCC Historical and Future Simulations2005: Data Postprocessing & Analysis2006: Scientific Synthesis2007: Publication
Observations of the
Earths Climate System
Simulations Past, Present
Future Climate States
Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32
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Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
150 0.0450.012100 0.0740.018
50 0.1280.02625 0.1770.052
Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,20
06, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,20
00
Period Rate
Years /decade
Trenberth
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2030: A Warmer and Wetter World
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Temperature at 2030
Averages and Extremes
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Precipitation at 2030
Averages and Extremes
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Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice
ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean
• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease
• Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years.
“Abrupt”transition
Simulation of Future Climate
Marika Holland, NCAR
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Ammann et al.
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2006
If anything, we are being much too conservative!
Is the IPCC being too Alarmist?
Raupach et al., 2007Canadell et al., 2007
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NCAR
NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4
A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past &
Geoengineering
Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5
+ Data: Building the Earth System Grid
+ Social Science @ NCAR
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But, should we really be worried?
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Lessons from the Past
If we continue on the “Business as usual” scenario, significant changes begin to be observed at 4x CO2
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Global Annual Mean Energy Budget
Annual Mean Surface Temperature
Permian coupled model run for2700 years to new equilibrium state
Forcing of 10X increase in CO2and Permian paleogeography
Ts> = 8°C
CCSM3 T31X3
Kiehl and Shields
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NCARWignall(2005)
Clear
Some
None
Evidence
Inefficient mixing seen in Permian ocean: Indicative of anoxia, consistent with large extinction event
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Geoengineering strategies
• Space mirrors, (Wood, Angel)
• High Altitude Sulphur injections
• Seeding stratocumulus clouds to brighten clouds
• Sequestration of CO2
• Iron Fertilization, ...
Phil Rasch NCAR
We are not proposing that geo-engineering be carried out! We are proposing that the implications should be carefully explored.
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Title slide
From Church, White, & Arblaster
Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, June 15, 1991. Gases and solids injected 20 km into the stratosphere.
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NCAR
Add sulfate at a rate of 0.5 Pinatubo/yr
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1650 Little Ice Age
1: IPCC A2
2: 0.3%
3: 0.3-0.9%
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2: 0.3%
3: 0.3-0.9%
4. Commitment
1. A2
Maintaining A2 TS at commitment level by reducing solar irradiance
Question: These geoengineering approaches both involve “dimming” the sun. What is the impact on global food production of a 1% decrease in incoming solar radiation
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NCAR
NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4
A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past &
Geoengineering
Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5
+ Data: Building the Earth System Grid
+ Social Science @ NCAR
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Climate Change Epochs
Attribute sources of historical warming
Project range of possible non-mitigated future warming from SRES scenarios
Quantify Climate Change Commitment
• Project adaptation needs under various mitigation scenarios
• Time-evolving regional climate change on short and long-term timeframes • Quantify carbon cycle feedbacks
Before IPCCAR4 After
Conclusion: With the wide public acceptance of the IPCC AR4 findings, the climate science community is now facing the new challenge of quantifying time evolving regional climate change that human societies will have to adapt to under several possible mitigation scenarios, as well as addressing the size of carbon cycle feedbacks with more comprehensive Earth System Models
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CCSP 2.1a Mitigation Simulations
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IPCC AR4 Modeling Centers & AR5 Timeline
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• Aerosols– Direct and indirect effects
• Chemistry – Radiative and air quality issues
• Dynamic Vegetation– Regrowth following disturbance
• Carbon & Nitrogen Cycle– Ocean & land biogeochemistry – Anthropogenic (transient) land use/cover
• Land Ice Sheets– Sea level Rise & Abrupt Climate change
New CCSM Components for IPCC AR5
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IPCC AR5 (2013) ScenariosThe current model development timeline anticipates CCSM4 in 2009 in time to participate in the next set of internationally coordinated mitigation scenario experiments in 2009-2010 for a 2013 IPCC AR5 publication date
1. IPCC “Classic + ” Mitigation Scenarios: • 100 & 300-year climate change simulations• Medium resolution • Core “required” + optional Tier 1 and Tier 2 simulations• Carbon, Nitrogen & Biogeochemical cycles• 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from IAM community• Quantify investment return of mitigation strategies
2. New Climate Change “Adaptation” Simulations: • Short-term (30-year) climate predictions • Single scenario • High-resolution (0.5° or 0.25° resolution)• Designed for impacts, policy and decision making communities.
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RCPs in perspective – CO2 emissionsRCPs in perspective – CO2 emissions
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
12020
00
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Em
issi
on
s (G
tCO
2)
MiniCAM 4.5
IMAGE 2.6
AIM 6.0
MES-A2R 8.5
IMAGE 2.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Stabilization range (10-90th percentile)
Baseline range (10-90th percentile)
Post-SRES (min/max)
Selected scenarios (min/max)
( 671ppm, +3.7°, NIES )
( 900ppm, +4.5°, IIASA )
( 550ppm, +---°, PNNL )
( 424ppm, <2°, MNP )( 370ppm, <2°, MNP )
From Moss et al., 2008
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HPC dimensions of Climate Prediction
Data Assimilation
New Science
Spatial Resolution
Ensemble size
Timescale
Better Science(parameterization → explicit model)(new processes/interactions
not previously included)
(simulate finer details, regions & transients)
(quantify statistical properties of simulation) (decadal prediction/ initial value forecasts)
(Length of simulations * time step)
Lawrence Buja (NCAR) / Tim Palmer (ECMWF)
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Spatial Resolution (x*y*z)
Ensemble size
Timescale (Years*timestep)
TodayTerascale
5
50
500
Climate Model
70
102010
Petascale
1.4°160km
0.2°
22kmAMR
1000
400
1Km
Regular 10000
Earth System Model
100yr*
20min
1000yr*3min 1000yr * ?
Code Rewrite
Cost Multiplier
Data Assimilation
ESM+multiscale GCRMNew Science Better Science
HPC dimensions of Climate Prediction
?
Lawrence Buja (NCAR)
10
1010
10
10 10
10
2018
Exascale
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T42 2.8°
FV 2.0°
T85 1.4°
FV 1.0°
T170 0.7°
FV 0.5°T340 .36° FV 0.25° FV 0.1°
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Hor
izon
tal G
rid
Siz
e (K
m)
310k m
220k m
160k m
110k m
78k m
55k m
39k m 28k m11k m
Lawrence Buja (NCAR)
GlobalGeneral Atm/Ocn
Circulation
Continental Scale Flow
Carbon Cycle + BGC Spinups
RegionalMJO/MLC
Convergence
IPCC AR3
1998
IPCC AR4
2004 4TF
Sub-RegionalHurricanes
IPCC AR52010 500TF
CCSM Grand Challenge
2010 1PF
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Source: GSFC
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CCSM at ¼ ° ATM 1/10°OCN
Courtesy Dr. David Bader, PCMDI/LLNL/DOE
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NCAR
North Atlantic and North American Regional Climate Changes
The goal is to simulate the effects of climate change on precipitation across the intermountain West States and tropical cyclones, with a focus on the Gulf of Mexico.
• 36, 12 and 4 km domains nested into CCSM
• 1996-2005, then time slices out to 2050
• Multi-member ensembles for each period
• Dedicated time on NCAR IBM Power 6 (Bluefire) since July:
24 nodes (~20% of total number of processors) 36 (12) km simulations use 128 (256) processors per job Will use 3.9M processor hours through 11/08 ~300 Tb of data (to date); 450 Tb total (including earlier runs)
Jim Hurrell / Greg Holland
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NCAR
Improving Predictions of Regional Changes in Weather and Climate
The Nested Regional Climate Model
IPCC (2007) IPCC (2013) NRCM
High Resolution Climate Modeling
Jim Hurrell / Greg Holland
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NCAR
Importance of Resolution
18 storms
25 storms
Hurrell / Holland
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NCAR
NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4
A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past &
Geoengineering
Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5
+ Data: Building the Earth System Grid
+ Social Science @ NCAR
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Dean Williams: Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies
• Petabyte-scale data volumes• Globally federated sites• “Virtual Datasets” created through subsetting and aggregation• Metadata-based search and discovery• Bulk data access• Web-based and analysis tool access• Increased flexibility and robustness
ESG GoalsESG Goals Current ESG SitesCurrent ESG Sites
http://www.earthsystemgrid.orghttp://www.earthsystemgrid.orghttp://www-pcmdi.llnl.govhttp://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov
Earth System Grid
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Lessons Learned
1. Observational data is very similar to model data
Time
Val
ue
Obs data
Model data
2. Observational data is very different from model data
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Lessons Learned
3. Don’t let scientists build their data management and distribution systems on their own!
Building robust, useful data systems requires close collaboration between the two communities!
…but don’t let the CS folks do it alone, either
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4. Effective Data Distribution Systems Require Sustained Investment
Home Grown Data Systems
Community Data Portal
Earth System Grid
• Initially Cheap• $$$ in long term• Limited Scale
• Modest Investment• Agile and Right-sized
for Many Projects• Institutional Scale
• Large Investment• Infrastructure for
Large Projects
• Spans Institutions
Lessons Learned
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20,000 Climate Scientists 4,000,000 GIS Licenses
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Briefing on ResultsBriefing on Results::USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Endangered Species Listing Decision:Endangered Species Listing Decision:
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
See slide notes for this topic
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NCAR
NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4
A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past &
Geoengineering
Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5
+ Data: Building the Earth System Grid
+ Social Science @ NCAR
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Image courtesy of Canada DND
After IPCC AR4, the direction of our climate change research program dramatically changed.
WAS: Is anthropogenic climate change occurring?
NOW: What will be the impact of anthropogenic climatechange on coupled human and natural systems?
• Magnitude and speed?• Direct and indirect impacts?• Adaptation vs mitigation • What are our options & limits?
Addressing these new, much more complex, questions requires• new approaches & priorities,• new science capabilities, collaborators & partners
Science capabilities a direct function of computational capabilities• Weather and Climate Science, Applications and Services
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1.Assessment Methods, Products, and Tools• New methods and tools for assessing the impacts of
climate and weather • Climate scenario development, statistical and GIS methods,
simulation tools.
2.Climate-Ecosystem-Human Interactions• Complex interactions among earth’s climate, ecosystem,
and inhabitants. • Future impacts of climate on human & natural ecosystems
3.Use of Scientific Information in Decision Processes• Bridge gap between earth-system science and the needs of
decision makers• scientific information use for policy and management
decisions when information is uncertain or incomplete.
4.Vulnerability, Adaptation, Thresholds, and Resilience• Enhancing society's capacity to develop more resilient,
sustainable systems, • Thresholds, coping ranges & adaptation strategies for
social and resource systems
•Integrated Science and Regional Applications• Regional applications integrate fundamental research from
the four other themes.
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Impediments cont’d
2. Uniqueness of mission relative to NCAR Physical Sciences
– The bulk of NCAR is based in physical science while ISSE’s societal mission is quite different.
– NCAR traditional physical sciences does not currently meet the needs of integrative research for the benefit of society.
NCAR Physical SciencesISSE Social andEnvironmentalSciences
“Valley of Death”
Approaches / Languages / Mental Models
Solution: This is the nature of interdisciplinary work, The gap is closed by communication, bridging projects and developing trust relationships
- Frontier areas focused on filling in the Valley of Death
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The Challenge…Maintaining healthy national and local economies, in a rapidly changing world of increasing population and GNP, all accessing a finite resource base.
It’s all about sustainability of Energy, Food & Water…
While maintaining your critical Human systems - Transportation, Agriculture, Health & Quality of life…
Without disrupting your critical natural ecosystems…
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National Center for Atmospheric ResearchMore than Meteorologists….
WritersCommunicatorsEducators
Solar Physicists
Statisticians - Risk analysis
Mathematicians
Software Engineers
Network Engineers
GIS/Data Management
Social Scientists
-Adaptation-Mitigation-Impacts-Health
Gov’t AffairsPolicy Law
ChemistsEngineers:Chemical, Electrical, Mechanical…
Sea-Ice Hydrology
Economists
EnergyBiologyLand UseObservations
Simulations
Field Programs
Climate OceansWeather
Lawrence Buja [email protected]
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