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Transcript of Laurence Brown Indiana DOT John Ottensmann Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis Jon...
![Page 1: Laurence Brown Indiana DOT John Ottensmann Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis Jon Fricker Purdue University Li Jin Kittelson & Associates,](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ef25503460f94c04cb8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Laurence BrownIndiana DOT
John OttensmannIndiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis
Jon FrickerPurdue University
Li JinKittelson & Associates, Orlando, FL
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Indiana State Travel Demand Model (ISTDM)◦ Developed by Indiana Department of
Transportation LUCI and luci2 Urban Simulation Models for
central Indiana◦ Developed by Center for Urban Policy and the
Environment INTRLUDE (Integrated Transportation Land-
Use Demand Estimation) Model◦ luci2 INDOT Statewide Model◦ Integrated with ISTDM
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4579 internal TAZs 141 external TAZs Same geographical
units used in luci2 INDOT Statewide Model◦ TAZs around urban
areas split to reflect sewer service availability and implement urban growth boundary option
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Simulates new urban development for TAZs◦ Allocates population growth and residential
development◦ Allocates employment growth and related
employment-related development◦ Optionally forecasts growth in local-service
employment Integrated with travel demand model
◦ Uses travel times generated by travel demand model
◦ Outputs population and employment for travel demand model
![Page 5: Laurence Brown Indiana DOT John Ottensmann Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis Jon Fricker Purdue University Li Jin Kittelson & Associates,](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ef25503460f94c04cb8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
LandSat imagery for 1985, 1993, 2000◦ Land cover
classification◦ Reclassification to
estimate residential and employment-related land use
Population and employment data from travel demand model
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Models estimated using data by TAZ for 2000, change from 1995-2000◦ Probability of residential development◦ Density of residential development◦ Probability of employment-related development◦ Density of employment-related development◦ Change in local-service sector industry
employment
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Works in 5-year simulation periods Simulation driven by exogenous forecast of
population growth for entire state
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Uses employment forecast by TAZ from travel demand model forecast for 2030
Option to predict local-service employment change
Predictors of local-service employment change◦ Accessibility to population change◦ Change in urban land in TAZ in previous period
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Predict employment density by TAZ Allocate new employment-related
development to accommodated predicted employment growth
For split TAZs, new development allocated to portion with highest predicted probability of employment-related development
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Predict probability of conversion of nonurban land to residential use by TAZ◦ Aggregate logit model◦ Accessibility to employment change◦ Availability of sewer utility service
Predict population density by TAZ◦ Accessibility to employment◦ Availability of sewer utility service
Probabilities adjusted uniformly to accommodated specified population growth
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Population growth Density of residential development Sewer expansion Agriculture land preservation Urban growth boundaries Increased dispersal of development Importance of accessibility to employment Employment changes in specific TAZs
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Input: travel times from ISTDM Outputs: population and employment by
industry for ISTDM Interface
◦ Original model interactive, with options specified by user
◦ Final version run from command line Options specified in a scenario definition file Population and employment output to files for use by
travel demand model
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ISTDM is implemented in TransCAD Integration of luci2 Model and travel
demand model accomplished using the TransCAD GIS Developer’s Kit (GISDK)◦ Provides user interface to specify options for
simulation, including options for the luci2 Model◦ Manages exchange of data between the ISTDM
and the luci2 Model◦ Runs the simulations in the ISTDM and the luci2
Model
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Overall simulation◦ Target year
luci2 Model◦ Whether to predict local-service employment◦ Population growth rate◦ Other scenario options
ISTDM◦ Network for each simulation year
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Begins with luci2 simulation of change from 2000 to 2005◦ Model uses 2000 travel times from ISTDM◦ Model outputs population and employment for
2005 ISTDM simulates travel in 2005
◦ Model uses output from luci2 and network specified for 2005
◦ Model outputs travel times (congested skim tree) for 2005
luci2 simulates change from 2005 to 2010 Process continues to target year
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ISTDM INTRLUDE
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Generally high correlation between INTRLUDE and ISTDM forecasts
INTRLUDE forecasts show more variation spatially than ISTDM forecasts◦ More areas of higher density around urban areas◦ Overall greater spread of population growth over
broader areas
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0.00
5000.00
10000.00
15000.00
20000.00
25000.00
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
INTRLUDE Population Density 2030
IST
DM
Po
pu
lati
on
D
en
sit
y 2
03
0
Correlation r = 0.97
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0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
RuralInterstates
Other RuralPrincipalArterials
Rural MinorArterials
Rural MajorCollectors
UrbanInterstates
OtherUrban
Freeways &Expwys
OtherUrban
PrincipalArterials
UrbanMinor
Arterials
VMT forecasts in 2030
VMT (ISTDM)
VMT(INTRLUDE)
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0
250000
500000
750000
1000000
1250000
1500000
1750000
2000000
2250000
RuralInterstates
Other RuralPrincipalArterials
Rural MinorArterials
Rural MajorCollectors
UrbanInterstates
Other UrbanFreeways &
Expwys
Other UrbanPrincipalArterials
Urban MinorArterials
VHT forecasts in 2030
VHT(ISTDM)
VHT(INTRLUDE)
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Comparison of ISTDM and INTRLUDE simulation results for planned improvements
Sensitivity of model forecasts to luci2 Model scenario options
Simulations with planned intermediate-year network improvements included in model
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Use in early stages of project scoping to -◦ Compare multiple project scenarios◦ Consider land use consumption of projects
Large upgrades and new projects of specific interest –◦ Indianapolis outer loop expressway (CISTMS)◦ U.S. 31 upgrade to limited access◦ I-69 new terrain/upgrade◦ Illiana expressway
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Effects of major employment changes not included in INDOT 2030 forecast
Effects of recent downward adjustment in population and employment forecasts