Kabul, June 10th

Ministry of Economy Conference Hall

Launch Ceremony 2nd Edition of the Provincial Briefs Report

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Motivation

i. Availability of statistics is key to monitoring impact of development interventions

ii. Disaggregated statistics at the subnational level very important in Afghanistan

iii. Provincial briefs provide a tool to assess progress and better target interventions at the provincial level.

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Potential Audience

• Policy makers

• Local administrators and civil society

• Development partners and international community

• Students and researchers

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2nd Edition of the Provincial Briefs (NRVA 2011-11)

Opportunities

Use data from both survey rounds to look at levels and trends

Challenges

Ensure definition of indicators consistent over time (comment – trend analysis can only be done if indicators are constructed in the same way in both survey years)

Online data tool - http://bit.do/AFGPB

Allows flexibility in data analysis by users. Each indicator presented at the national level and disaggregated by:

- Urban /Rural (bar chart)

- Region (bar chart)

- Province (map and bar chart)

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Indicators

1. Area and Population 2007/08 2011/12

Area

Population

Rural population

2. Poverty and Inequality 2007/08 2011/12

Poverty rate (revised)

Depth of poverty (revised)

Average consumption of the poor as % of PL

(revised)

Per capita monthly total consumption

(revised)

Inequality (revised)

3. Food security 2007/08 2011/12

Calorie deficiency (revised)

Depth of calorie deficiency (revised)

Inadequate dietary diversity (revised)

Protein deficiency (revised)

4. Labor market 2007/08 2011/12

Participation rate

Can be constructed

but not comparable

Employment-population ratio

Unemployment rate

Underemployment rate

Literate labor force

Revision of 2007-08 data to exclude provinces of Helmand and Khost. These two provinces – due to problems with consumption measurement in NRVA 2011-12 have been dropped from the analysis of indicators in the “Poverty and Inequality” and “Food Security” sections.

Total of 37 indicators, organized in 9 thematic areas

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Selection of indicators

5. Sectors of employment 2007/08 2011/12

Agriculture

Can be constructed butnot comparable

Manufacturing

Construction

Services

Public administration/government

6. Education 2007/08 2011/12

Literacy rate – age 14+

Average years of schooling –age 18+

Net attendance rate, primary school

Net attendance rate, secondary school

7. Gender 2007/08 2011/12

Female Literacy rate – age 14+

Girls to boys net attendance ratio, primary

Girls to boys net attendance ratio, secondary

Female participation rate

8. Health 2007/08

Access to skilled antenatal care

Births attended by skilled attendants

Full immunization rate among children

Cannot be constructedChildren with no vaccination

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Selection of indicators

9. Access to services and infrastructure 2007/08 2011/12

Safe drinking water

Sanitary toilet

Electricity

Structure of the report

1. NATIONAL PROFILE

2. PROVINCIAL PROFILE

3. TECHNICAL APPENDIX

4. GLOSSARY

NEW

NEW

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ONLINE DATA TOOL -

http://bit.do/AFGPB

Online data tool allows users to :

1. Visualize data on all indicators reported in the Briefs using maps and bar charts

2. Download data for customized analysis

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Data VisualizationSTEP 1:

Select indicator from the drop down menu:

For example: Poverty Rate

Definition of the indicator – from Glossary section of Briefs

Map of the indicator by Province for each survey year (orange: 2011 and blue: 2007).

Darker color corresponds to higher levels of the indicator, in this case higher poverty.

Legend – indicates the minimum and maximum value of the indicator.

Value of the indicator at the National level for the two survey years

Value of the indicator in Rural and Urban areas for the two survey years

Value of the indicator at the Regional level for the two survey years

Value of the indicator at the Provincial level for the two survey years

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Data download

Online data tool provides the possibility to download data for user-customized analysis.

Data can be accessed and downloaded by:

1. Clicking on the data tab

2. Clicking on map or bar charts

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Poverty and Inequality: some examplesEXAMPLE 1: poverty increase Ghazni Ghazni National

2007/08 2011/12 2011/12

Poverty and Inequality (a)

Poverty rate (%) 19.7 45.8 35.8

Depth of poverty (%) 2.8 14.3 8.4

Average consumption of the poor as % of PL 85.9 68.8 76.4

Per capita monthly consumption (Afs, 2011) 2,261 2,262 2,410

Gini index (%) 21.0 34.6 31.6

0 25 50 75 100

TakharLaghman

ZabulBadakhshan

Sar-I-PulGhor

JawzjanSamangan

UrozganGhazni

KunarhaBamyanKunduzWardak

DaykundiBadghisParwan

NangarharHerat

PanjsherPaktika

BaghlanNooristan

LogarKapisaPaktyaKabulBalkh

NimrozFaryab

KandaharFarah

Poverty Rate (%)

2007

Poverty headcount more than doubled and depth of poverty increased more than 4 times – both indicators are above the national average.

Worsening of consumption is particularly strong for the poor. In fact:- No change in average consumption between the two survey- Poor in 2011-12 are consuming less as a share to the poverty line

than they were in 2007-08.

- The fact that only one part of the population has been experiencing a decline in welfare is reflected by an increase of inequality (Gini coefficient)

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Poverty and Inequality: Example 2

EXAMPLE 2: Poverty declines Balkh Balkh National

2007/08 2011/12 2011/12

Poverty and Inequality (a)

Poverty rate (%) 59.6 21.6 35.8

Depth of poverty (%) 16.9 4.4 8.4

Average consumption of the poor as % of PL 71.6 79.6 76.4

Per capita monthly consumption (Afs, 2011) 1,795 2,796 2,410

Gini index (%) 27.3 30.3 31.6

0 25 50 75 100

TakharLaghman

ZabulBadakhsh…

Sar-I-PulGhor

JawzjanSamangan

UrozganGhazni

KunarhaBamyanKunduzWardak

DaykundiBadghisParwan

NangarharHerat

PanjsherPaktika

BaghlanNooristan

LogarKapisaPaktyaKabulBalkh

NimrozFaryab

KandaharFarah

Poverty Rate (%)

2007

Poverty headcount declined by 38 percentage points (64%) and it is now below the national average. Similar progress captured by the decline in poverty depth – meaning that there are fewer poor in the province and that those who remain poor are less far from escaping poverty.

Welfare progress is also confirmed by the increase in per capita consumption, which is 56% higher than in 2007-08.

Improvement in welfare have not been equal for all inhabitants – which is indicated by the increase in inequality.

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Food Security (change example and use Takhar instead)

0 20 40 60 80

ZabulBadakhsh…

BadghisLaghmanUrozgan

NooristanGhazni

Sar-I-PulTakhar

LogarKunduz

BamyanSamangan

FaryabPaktya

ParwanKandahar

BalkhJawzjan

KabulDaykundi

PaktikaHeratGhor

PanjsherNimroz

BaghlanKunarha

NangarharKapisaFarah

Wardak

Calorie Deficiency (%)

2007

Zabul Zabul National

2007/08 2011/12 2011/12

Food Security

Calorie deficiency (%) 16.9 82.2 34.7

Severe calorie deficiency (%) 2.7 23.6 10.4

Protein deficiency (%) 7.7 48.0 25.3

Inadequate dietary diversity (% ) 2.3 20.1 19.9

Strong decline over time of the calorie intake: 82 percent of the population consuming less than 2100 Kcal per day (calorie deficiency); 23.6 percent less than 1500 Kcal (severe calorie deficiency).

Strong deterioration in quality of the diet: 48 percent consuming less than 50 grams of protein per day and 20 percent with inadequate diet diversity

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Food Security – Example of possible “customized” analysis

• FACT: Due to a lack of rain, losses of ground water and an approximately two million MT cereal production deficit, the Afghan government declared that the northern half of the country was drought affected on 23 July 2011.

• 14 out of Afghanistan 34 provinces were affected by the drought, namely: Takhar, Sar-e-Pul, Samangan, Kunduz, Jawzian, Herat, Ghor, Faryab, Daykundi, Bamyan, Balk, Baglan,Badghis and Badakshan.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2011 2007

CALORIE DEFICIENCY (%) IN DROUGHT AFFECTED PROVINCES

Data show deterioration of food security in all drought affected provinces with two exceptions: Balkh, Herat

User can then continue the analysis to answer other question such as (among others)- What is the relation poverty/food security trends; - Sectoral structure of the economy and differential impact of

drought

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Labor market

Analysis of labor market trends limited by data comparability issues – Provincial Briefs report labor market indicators based on NRVA 2011-12 only.

Indicators include:

Examples of questions that can be answered with only one round of data

- How well does each Province do compared with the National average on indicators such as

- What is the sectoral distribution of employment in a Province and how does it compare with the rest of the country?...

Labor Market indicators Sectors of Employment

Participation rate (%) Agriculture (%)

Employment–population rate (%) Manufacturing (%)Unemployment rate (%) Construction (%)

Underemployment rate (%) Services (%)

Literate labor force (%) Public administration/government (%)

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Labor Market: Example (Balkh)

Province achieved good progress in poverty reduction and, despite being affected by drought, food security improved.

How can analysis of LM in 2011-12 complement the picture?

• Well performing labor market, literate labor force and diversified economy:

– Relatively low reliance on agriculture sector

– Among provinces with highest development of manufacturing sector

Balkh National

2011/12 2011/12

Sectors of Employment (b)

Agriculture (%) 29.7 40.8

Manufacturing (%) 12.1 7.0

Construction (%) 5.0 9.4

Services (%) 41.7 30.4

Public administration/government (%) 11.5 12.3

Balkh National

2011/12 2011/12

Labor Market (b)

Participation rate (%) 42.7 50.1

Employment–population rate (%) 40.9 46.1

Unemployment rate (%) 4.3 8.1

Underemployment rate (%) 4.5 18.6

Literate labor force (%) 42.4 37.9

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Education Outcomes – Gender gap in education

A lot of efforts to improve children education, particularly that of girls:

Still:

A lot of variation between provinces:

- Primary school attendance in Panjsher 20 times higher than Uruzgan;

- Panjsher: no difference in enrollment of boys or girls; Uruzgan: only 10 girls in school every 100 boys

0 40 80 120

UrozganPaktika

ZabulWardak

PaktyaHelmand

GhazniKunduz

KunarhaFarahLogarKhost

NangarharKandahar

ParwanSamangan

GhorJawzjanFaryab

BadghisTakhar

BaghlanKapisa

Sar-I-PulKabul

LaghmanNooristan

BamyanBalkh

DaykundiBadakhs…Panjsher

NimrozHerat

Girls to Boys Net Attendance Ratio, Primary (%)

2007

0 25 50 75 100

UrozganZabul

HelmandKandaharNooristan

KunduzNimroz

WardakKunarha

PaktyaPaktika

KhostFarah

BadghisNangarhar

GhazniHerat

TakharGhor

ParwanLogar

Sar-I-PulBaghlanJawzjan

BalkhBamyan

FaryabSamangan

BadakhshanLaghman

KabulDaykundi

KapisaPanjsher

Net attendance rate, primary school (%)

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Education and gender gap in education on a map

Girls to Boys Net Attendance Ratio, Primary (%)

Net attendance rate, primary school (%)

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Access to services - Safe Drinking Water

Significant progress at the national level, mostly driven by improvement in rural areas;

Still strong differences between provinces in levels and trends; - Panjsher & Paktya highest improvement over time – anything to lean? What

made a difference?...- Strong deterioration in access to water in Zabul, Kunarha, Jawzian, Urozgan

– what happened?0 20 40 60 80

UrozganZabul

NimrozWardak

NooristanDaykundi

GhorSamangan

BamyanSar-I-PulJawzjanKunduz

BaghlanHelmandKunarha

FaryabKapisaKhost

Badakhs…ParwanGhazni

LogarNangarh…Badghis

KandaharHerat

LaghmanFarah

PaktikaTakhar

PanjsherPaktya

BalkhKabul

2007

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Access services: Electricity

Significant progress especially in rural areas – mostly driven by the expansion in the use of solar energy sources.

Improvement in almost all provinces, but different scale of progress, for example:

- Paktika, had third to worst access to electricity in 2007 (only 6%), now among top 4 provinces (92%)

- Ghazni, Kabul – no much progress since 2007

0 25 50 75 100

UrozganZabul

KunarhaNooristanHelmand

BadghisNangarhar

KhostNimrozKunduz

BadakhshanTakhar

SamanganJawzjanBaghlan

LaghmanHerat

WardakFarah

GhazniPaktya

BalkhPanjsher

KapisaFaryab

KandaharSar-e-Pul

ParwanKabulGhor

PaktikaDaykundi

BamyanLogar

2007