Latino Destiny

8/9/2019 Latino Destiny

1/61

Demography as Destiny:

Latino Population Growth,Dispersion, Diversity and the

Future of American Life


2/61


3/61

Total Increase % Latino Increase % % Latino Share

of Growth

1. Cali o nia 4 111,627 14 ,278,618 4 802. New Yo k 86,002 6 653,557 30 66

3. Texa 3,865,310 23 2,329,761 54 60

4. Flo ida 3,044,452 24 1,108,572 70 36

5. Illinoi 988,691 9 625,816 70 63

12,996,082 15 7,996,324 53 62

Sou

ce: 2000 Cen

u

Impact of Latino Population Increases inNations 5 Largest States


4/61

-3,000,000

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

Racial and Ethnic Change in the Nation's

100 Largest Cities: 1990-2000

Asian/Pacific Islander

Blacks

Non-Hispanic White

Hispanics

Total

1.0 .82

-2.3

3.8.7


5/61

Whites Became a Minority in the

Nation's Top 100 Cities Between1990 and 2000

White

43%

Black

24%

Hispanic

23%

Multiracial

2%


7%

American

Indian/Alaska Native

1%Other

0%

Source: Broo

ing Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy


6/61

T ta

C ty

at n An

B

a k As an H s an M n r ty

1. New Yo

5

10 27 65

2. Lo An! eles 3,964,820 30 11 10 47 70

3. Ch" # $ ! o 2,896,016 31 37 4 26 694. Houston 1,953,631 31 25 5 37 69

5. Ph" ladelph" a 1,517,550 43 43 5 9 57

6. Phoen" x 1,321,045 56 5 2 34 44

7. San Diego 1,223,400 49 8 14 25 51

8. Dallas 1,188,580 35 26 3 36 65

9. San Antonio 1,144,646 32 7 2 59 78

10. Detroit 951,270 11 82 1 5 89

Source: Census

M n r ty at n n t ar stC t s n t Un t d tat s


7/61


8/61

Increase Percent Percent Share of Total

Group 1990-2000 Increase Latino Populatio Growth

A La s , ,M xica , 44,

Oth r Latino 4, ,

P rto Rican ,4 4

Dominican 4, 44

Cuban ,

Sourc%

: US C%

nsus Bur%

au. C%

nsus & ' ' ' Summary Fil%

Tabulat%

d by th%

Int%

r-univ%

rsity Program for Latinos.

Latino Population Growth by Type


9/61

La o oup P va

Mexican Origin Over(

0%Puerto Rican Origin Over ( 0%

Melting Pot: NoLatino Group over( 0% ofTotal LatinoPopulation


10/61

1.84.1

7.8

14.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1980 1990 2000

La o Fo g Bo Popu a o

- ( o s)

Source: Census Bureau


11/61


12/61


13/61

39%

29%32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Immig a t st ati d G ati

La o Fo g Bo a d Na v

Popu a o s by a o


14/61

737

348

465

952

692

765

7,841

4,298

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Cuba

Dominican

Republic

El Salvador

Mexico

2000

1990

Top ou s o B o Fo g Boom La Am ca:

a d ( o s)

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Profile of the Foreign Born

Population in the U.S. 20000


15/61

U.S. Population 2000

13%

12%

1%4%

70%

Non-Latino White

LatinoBlack

American Indian



16/61

U.S. Projected Population 2050

53%

24%

13%

1%

9%

Non-Latino White

Latino

Black

American Indian



17/61

U.S. Projected Population 2100

33%

3%

%

3%% i i

i

l

i i

i ifi l


18/61

The 2000 Latino Vote:Issue Driven andIdeologically Coherent


19/61

Mos mpo a Co s d a o

Vo g o P s d : La o Vo s

All

Latino

Voters Gore Bush Nader

My Candidates

Position on the Issues 7% 60% 1% 77%

My Candidates Leadership

and Personal Qualities 36% 33% 3% 1 %


20/61

Ro o ov m

W c com s c os o you v ?

All

Latino

Voters Gore Bush

Government should do more

to solve problems 60% 73% 0%

Government is doing too many

things better left to business

and individuals 36% 21% 8%


21/61


22/61


23/61

Naturalized CitizensVoting Patterns


24/61

Percent of Votingfor Latino Voting Age Population

1996 and 1998

42.2

52.3

31.437.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996 1998

Native Born

Naturalized Citizen

Source: Census Bureau, Registration and Voting, November 1996


25/61

Latino Party Identification

37%52%

13% 14%

20%23% 21%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Dem a Rep b a dependent No P eference

Foreign-Born

Native-Born

Source: Public Broadcasting Latino Poll 2000


26/61

Party in Congress

Better for Latinos

44%

59%

19%22%

8% 6%

27%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%60%

70%

80%

Democra Repub can E her Par y Don' Know

Foreign Born

Na ive-Born

Source: Public Broadcasting Latino Poll 2000


27/61

Voting Patterns Among Latino Naturalized

Citizens in Texas

66% 53%

69%71%

33%

46%

31%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Democrat Republican

President

US Senate

Congressional

Party ID


28/61

Voting Patterns Among Latino Naturalized

Citizens in California

80 8277

17

18

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

6070

80

90

e o rat ep a

Pre de t

o gre o a

Party


29/61

LatinoYoung AdultVoting Behavior


30/61

Registration and Voting in theNovember 1998 General Election by

Race and Ethnicity18-2 years

Registered

To Vote

%

VotedNon-Hispanic White 6 20

Blac 1 17Latino 36 1Asian 31 17

Percent of Citizen Voting Age Population


31/61

%

Registered

%

Voted

All Latinos 3318-2 yrs 36 12 - 29

-6 66 -7 73

7 yrs + 68 0

La i oRegis ra io a dVo i gAge:November 99

Percent of Latino Citizen Voting Age Population Registered toVote and Voting in November 1998 General Election

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Registration and Voting: November 1988


32/61

Party ID

18 - 2 yrs by Race

27%

10%

9%

12%

7%

28%

15%

7%

23%

18%

38%

26%72%

50%

59%

0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Demo

Rep

Ind

Something else

A ian

His anic

B ack

it

Source: Voter ewsService, General Election Exit olls


33/61

Vote for President

18 - 2 yrs by Race

7%

1%

1%

31%

0%

6%

56%

38%

0%

0%

1%

93%

0%

32%

5%

61%

0%

0%

62%

8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Gore

Bush

Buchannon

Nader

Other

Asian

His anic

B ack

it



34/61

Vote for U.S. Senate

18 - 2 yrs by Race

4%

20%

1%

38%

3%

29%

0%

56%

39%

78%

59%

71%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Demo

Rep

Other

Asian

His anic

B ack

it



35/61

Vote for U.S. House

18 - 2 yrs by Race

3%

16%

0%

28%

2%

33%

0%

57%

40%

84%

70%

68%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Demo

Rep

Other

Asian

His anic

B ack

it



36/61

Latino Registration andVoting by Gender


37/61

0 20 40 60 80

Female % Voting ofCVAP

Female % Reg

Male % Voting of

CVAP

Male % Reg

White

Black

Latino

Asian

Gender Comparisons by Ethnicity: Percent ofCitizen Population Voting inNovember 1998


38/61

Understanding andExplaining Latino Non-Voting


39/61

Reasons 1998 1996

Too Busy, Forgot

6 27Not interested/did notli e candidates

16 2

Registrationproblems/

Inconvenience

12 10

Illness or Disability 8 13

No transportation 2 6

Top Reasons for Not Voting in November1996 and November 1998 Elections by

Latino Registered Voters PercentResponding

Source: Census Bureau. Current Population Reports. Registration and Voting in November 1998 and Registration and Voting in

November 1996.


40/61

Latino Non-Citizens

Number 8.9 MillionHeavily concentrated in

California, Texas, NewYor ,Florida, Illinois, Arizona, and

New Jersey


41/61

Latinos non-citizens are 39% of theLatino population and number

8,8 ,000 (18yrs+)

The number of Latino adult non-citizens(18yrs+) increased 23% from 1996-

2000 7,217,000 in 1996

8,8 ,000 in 2000


42/61

State Total Latino Non-Citizen Percent

Non-CitizenArizona 802, 7 312,96 39%

New Jersey 778,397 272, 39 3 %

Nevada 2 7,736 113,9 9 6%Virginia 276,8 0 106,61 7%

Latino Non-Citizens Voting

Age Population Per State

Non-citizen estimates based on 2000 Census Hispanic voting age population and1998 non-citizen ration


43/61

Latino Non-Citizens Voting

Age Population Per State

State Total Latino Non-Citizen Percent

Non-CitizenCalifornia 6,91 ,731 3, 7,86 0%

Texas ,282,901 1,2 2,0 1 29%

NewYor 1,97 , 1 789,820 0%Florida 1,980,176 772,269 39%

Illinois 977,9 2 0,078 %


44/61

Vo er Regis ra io Ra es or

Hispa i , W i e a dB a kAdu Ci ize s i 199

Characteristics Hispanic White Blac

Total

18 yrs + % 69% 6 %

Sex

Male 3% 68% 61%

Female 7% 70% 66%


45/61

Age Hispanic White Blac

18-2 yrs 36% 6% 1%

2 -3 yrs 2% 61% 62%

3 - yrs 7% 70% 6 %

- yrs 60% 7 % 70%

6 -7 yrs 73% 81% 76%

7 yrs + 68% 76% 73%


46/61

Educational Attainment Hispanic White Blac

Less than 9th grade 6% 6% 63%

9th to 12th grade,

no diploma 39% 0% 0%

High School Graduate 1% 6 % 9%

Some College or

Associates Degree 6 % 73% 70%

Bachelors Degree 71% 80% 78%

Advanced Degree 66% 8 % 83%


47/61

Annual Family Income Hispanic White Blac

Under $ ,000 1% 1% 0%

,000-9,999 8% 1% 9%

10,000-1 ,999 6% 61% 9%

1 ,000-2 ,999 2% 6 % 6 %

2 ,000-3 ,999 7% 68% 67%

3 ,000- 9,999 61% 72% 66%0,000-7 ,999 69% 77% 77%

7 ,000+ 72% 82% 79%


48/61

Home Ownership Hispanic White Blac

Owner-occupied units 63% % 70%

Renter-occupied units % 2% 6%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current PopulationSurvey, Voting and Registration in the Election ofNovember 1998


49/61


50/61

Political Recruitment and

MobilizationIn he pas enyears hasanyone askedyou o ?

(Basedonpo i i a ina ive La inos)

YESNO

Workasavo unteer or or pay 9

or aLatinopo iti a andidate

Attendapub i meetingor 9

emonstration regardingLatino oncerns

Contributedmoneytobe aLatinoCandidate 9

Or LatinoOrganization


51/61

Latino Views on theRole of Government


52/61

Q: Which comes closer

to your view?

58%

37%

24%

72%

35%

60%

35%

57%

10% 30% 50% 70% 90%

Govtis doin too many

thin s b tt r l tto

busin ssand individuals

Govtshould do mor to

solve problemsAsian

Hispanic

Black

hite

Source: Voter News Service, 2000 General Election Exit Polls


53/61

Q: Do you believe it is the responsibility or isntthe responsibility of the federal government to

ma e sure minorities have equity with whites?

65%

40%

90%

89%

73%

78%

79%

66%

63%

72%

55%

69%89%

80%

71%

50%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Trea en by he

Courts & olice

Healthcare

Schools

Jobs

Asian

Hispanic

Black

Whit

Respondents indicating Federal Government is responsible to ensure jobs,

schools, hearth care, and equal treatment with police and courts.

Source: Race and Ethnicity in 2001. Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation


54/61

The Latino Vote in 2002


55/61

HotlyContested U.S.SenatorialElections

Where LatinosareASwingVote

Projected Projected

Latino Citizen Latino

State Incumbent Voting Age Population Registered Voter Margin

1. Colorado Allard (R) 319,900 2 ,000 72,72 (R)

2. Iowa Har in (D) 30,200 20,900 62,3 9 (D)

3. Minnesota Wellstone (D) 1,600 1 ,800 197,211 (D)

. New Jersey Torricelli (D) ,600 3 9,700 291,803 (D)

. New Mexico Domenici (R) 6 ,000 269,200 192,81 (R)

6. North Carolina Open 137,200 37,800 171,9 8 (R)

7. Texas Open 3,23 ,300 1,817,700 98,90 (R)

8. Virginia Warner (R) 132, 00 1,900 119,762 (R)


56/61

HotlyContested

GubernatorialElections

Where LatinosareASwingVote

Projected

Latino Citizen Latino 1998 Winning


1. ArizonaOpen 31,900 220,800 2 8,636 (D)2. California Davis (D) 3,697,700 2,0 2,300 1,6 2,068 (D)

3. Connecticut Rowland (R) 196, 00 98,200 27 , 20 (R)

. Florida Bush (R) 1,299,200 767,900 18,0 1 (R)

. Illinois Open 77,700 321,300 119,903 (R)

6. Maryland Open 7 , 00 32, 00 1 8,61 (D)7. Massachusetts Swift (R-Oppt) 1 , 00 62, 00 6 ,317 (R)

8. Michigan Open 171,700 118,900 739, 31 (R)


57/61

HotlyContested

GubernatorialElections

Where LatinosareASwingVoteProjected

Latino Citizen Latino 1998 Winning


9. Nevada Guinn (R) 1 2,200 39,200 1,611 (R)

10. New Mexico Johnson (R) 6 ,000 269,200 ,193 (R)

11. NewYor Pata i (R) 1,239,600 727,700 1,001,67 (R)

12. Ohio Taft (R) 1 0, 00 , 00 179,76 (R)

13. Oregon Open 79,900 3 , 00 383,060 (D)

1 . Pennsylvania Open 233,200 116,200 798,099 (R)

1 . Texas Perry (R-Oppt) 3,23 ,300 1,817,700 1,386,010 (R)

16. Wisconsin McCallum (R-Oppt) 11 , 00 72,800 368,163 (R)


58/61

Latinos andPresident Bush


59/61

President Bush Job Approval byRacial and Ethnic Group

Before September 11, 2001

November 2001

% Approve Job Bush Was DoingOverall %

Whites 8%

Blac s 36%

Hispanics 9%

Source: Gallup Poll June 11-17, 2001 (Latino N=2 8)


60/61

President Bush Approval Ratings

After September 11, 2001

June 2001

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W.

Bush is handling his job as President?

White Blac s Latino

Approve 88% 68% 89%

Disapprove % 2 % 8%


61/61

President Bushs FirstYearPresidential Appointees Compared

to President Clinton

Bush Clinton

Women 26% 6%

African American 9% 1 %

Hispanic 8% 6%

Asian 3% 3%

Latino Destiny

Documents

Transcript of Latino Destiny