Latin American Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook

Latin American Business OutlookPart of the Global Business Outlook

A joint survey effort between

Duke University,Fundação Getúlio Vargas

and

CFO magazine

Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2013 1

Top Internal Concerns for Latin American CFOs


1. Ability to maintain margins

2. Attracting and retaining qualified employees

3. Ability to forecast results

4. Working capital management

5. Maintaining morale/productivity

6. Managing IT systems

7. Supply chain risk

8. Counterparty risk

9. Data security

10. Balance sheet weakness

11. Cost of health care

Top External Concerns for Latin American CFOs


1. Consumer demand

2. Federal government policies

3. Currency risk

4. Price pressure from competitors

5. Global financial instability

6. Corporate tax rates

7. Credit markets/interest rates

8. Foreign competition

9. Inflation

10. Cost of non-fuel commodities

11. Financial regulation

Forecast of % change over next 12 monthsHistorical Responses Sept 2013 Response

Rev

enue

Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country.


Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 2013

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Latin America United States Europe AsiaAfrica

Pro

duct

Pric

es


-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Latin America United States EuropeAsia Africa

United States

Europe Asia Latin America

Brazil Peru Chile0%

5%

10%

15%

United States


Brazil Peru Chile

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Historical Responses

Cap

ital S

pend

ing

Sept 2013 Response



-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Latin America United States Europe AsiaAfrica

Forecast of % change over next 12 months

Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country,except medians are shown for Latin American earnings in Dec 2012 and Mar 2013.

Ear

ning

s


-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%


United States


Brazil Peru Chile

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

United States


Brazil Peru Chile0%

5%

10%

15%

Historical Responses

# F

T E

mpl

oyee

sW

ages

& S

alar

ies

Sept 2013 Response



-5%

0%

5%

10%

Latin America United States Europe

Asia Africa


-5%

0%

5%

10%

Latin America United States Europe Asia

Africa

Forecast of % change over next 12 months

Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country,except medians shown for Latin America in Dec 2012 and Mar 2013.

#FT=Number of Fulltime Employees

United States


Brazil Peru Chile

-5%

0%

5%

10%

United States


Brazil Peru Chile0%

5%

10%

Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2013

Business Optimism Index (Scale from 0 to 100)Historical Responses

Cou

ntry

/ R

egio

nO

wn

Com

pany

Sept 2013 Response

7

Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 201335.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0


Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 201335.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0

Latin America United States Europe

Asia Africa

Brazil Mexico Argentina Chile Peru Colombia0

1020304050607080

Brazil Mexico Argentina Chile Peru Colombia0

1020304050607080

Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country


Effect of Increase in Interest Rate

8

1% Increase 2% Increase 1% Increase 2% Increase 1% Increase 2% Increase0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Increase No Change Decrease

Capital Spending

If benchmark long-term interest rates increase 1%/2% by the end of 2013, how will this affect your plans for:

Note: 26.3% of the Latin American CFOs expect the benchmark long-term interest rate to increase 1% by the end of 2013; 6.2% of the Latin American CFOs expect a 2% increase in benchmark long-term interest rate by the end of 2013.

FinancingFull-time Employee


Obtaining Long-term Credit in the Past 3 Years

9

US Europe Asia Latin America Africa0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Yes No

During the past 3 years, has your company obtained any long-term credit?


Currency Denomination of Long-term Credit

10

US Europe Asia Latin America Africa0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

US Dollar Domestic Currency Others


Top Reasons to Shift Toward Temporary/Part-time Workers

11

Weak custormer demand

Health care cost / regulations

Hourly wages are higher for permanent employees

Economic Uncertainty

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

19.0%

21.5%

28.9%

34.7%

% of CFOs who choose the reason as important (top3):

Note: More than 50% of the CFOs answer that their companies shifted toward temporary/part-time workers during the past years.


Past and Expected Return on Assets (ROA)

12

US Europe Asia Latin America Africa Brazil Peru Chile0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Approximate ROA in 2011/2012 Expected ROA in 2013/2014

Duke/FGV CFO Survey in Latin America Press


Latin American Business OutlookPart of the Global Business Outlook

A joint survey effort between

Duke University,Fundação Getúlio Vargas

and

CFO magazine


Latin American Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook

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