Report Telecoms - EY - 2015 - Global Telecoms Digital Playbook
LATIN AMERICA TELECOMS MARKET: TRENDS AND FORECASTS … · Latin America telecoms market: trends...
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Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015
REGIONAL FORECAST REPORT
LATIN AMERICA TELECOMS MARKET:
TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2015–2020
PABLO IACOPINO and ROMAN ORVISKY
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015
REPORT COVERAGE
Geographical Key performance indicators
Regions modelled:
Latin America
Countries modelled
individually
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Connections Revenue
Mobile
Handset, mobile
broadband1, M2M2
Prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G
Smartphone,
non-smartphone
Fixed
Voice, broadband,
IPTV, dial-up
Narrowband voice,
VoBB
DSL, FTTH/B, cable,
BFWA, other
Mobile
Service3, retail
Prepaid, contract
Handset, mobile
broadband1, M2M2
Handset voice,
messaging, data
Fixed
Service3, retail
Voice, broadband,
IPTV, dial-up, BNS
DSL, FTTH/B, cable,
BFWA, other
ARPU
Voice traffic Mobile:
SIMs, handset
Prepaid, contract
Handset voice, data
Fixed and mobile
Outgoing minutes,
MoU
2
This report provides:
a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for
Latin America as a whole and seven key countries
an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast
assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for
key countries
an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics,
in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a
cross-country comparison
a summary of results, key implications and recommendations
for mobile and fixed operators.
Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market
experts from our topic-led research programmes and our
consulting division, as well as external interviews.
In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw
on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous
methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard
definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).
For the complete data set, see the accompanying Excel file at
www.analysysmason.com/LATAM2015.
About this report
1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.
2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015 3
8. Executive summary
9. Latin America’s telecoms market offers significant growth opportunities for
operators – service revenue will reach USD140 billion by 2020
10. Mobile handset data services will be the largest source of retail revenue
growth in LATAM between 2014 and 2020, followed by fixed broadband
11. Telecoms retail revenue will grow in all markets between 2014 and 2020,
although regulatory activity will constrain growth in Chile and Mexico
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15. Geographical coverage: We model the seven largest markets, which
account for about 90% of Latin America’s total telecoms service revenue
16. Market context: Mobile penetration exceeds 100% in all countries except
Mexico, and Brazil and Mexico account for 61% of the region’s revenue
17. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data services will overtake mobile
voice services in 2020 and become the largest source of retail revenue
18. Mobile penetration: Most handset markets are saturated and offer low
growth prospects, and non-handset broadband take-up is slowing down
19. Mobile connections: LTE is making an impact in Latin America and will
account for 19% of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M) by 2020
20. Smartphones and LTE: Brazil will have the highest smartphone population
penetration and LTE take-up rates over the next 5 years
21. Mobile ARPU: Competition is set to intensify in all markets and will drive
down ARPU, while Argentina and Venezuela will have high inflation
22. Fixed services: Cable services will gain the most subscribers – driven by
pay-TV bundles – but DSL will retain the largest share through 2020
23. Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets through
2019 as competition stimulates demand and multi-play adoption grows
24. Key drivers at a glance
25. Individual country forecasts
26. Argentina: Service revenue will reach ARS122 billion in 2020, but high
inflation will be partly responsible for this growth
27. Argentina – mobile: Penetration peaked in 2013 and will decline further as
multiple-SIM ownership shrinks
28. Argentina – fixed: Broadband penetration growth will be mainly driven by
single-play voice and pay-TV users adding broadband
29. Brazil: Service revenue will continue to grow through 2019 as LTE drives up
data spending and fixed broadband take-up accelerates
30. Brazil – mobile: LTE gains strength, but regulation, price competition and
substitution to OTT services will reduce ARPU
31. Brazil – fixed: The broadband market will become more dynamic thanks to
fibre take-up and fixed–mobile bundles
32. Chile: Data revenue growth will offset the decline in mobile voice revenue,
which will be driven by MTR cuts and MVNO competition
33. Chile – mobile: Mobile ARPU will remain almost stable as data usage
compensates for the strong pressure on voice prices
34. Chile – fixed: Fixed–mobile substitution will drive down fixed voice revenue
while fixed broadband will maintain solid growth
Contents
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015 4
35. Colombia: Service revenue will stagnate after a peak in 2018 because fixed
and mobile data growth will eventually slow down
36. Colombia – mobile: OTT services will almost completely eliminate mobile
messaging revenue by 2020 and LTE take-up will be slow
37. Colombia – fixed: Growth in the broadband market will continue thanks to
expanded coverage and service bundling
38. Mexico: Regulation will limit mobile revenue growth in the short term, but
may ultimately unlock the market’s potential
39. Mexico – mobile: AT&T’s market entry and Telefónica’s presence will make
the market more dynamic
40. Mexico – fixed: Broadband growth will accelerate as operators invest in
coverage and fixed voice remains resilient
41. Peru: Service revenue will reach PEN17 billion in 2020 as improvements in
3G and 4G networks drive mobile revenue
42. Peru – mobile: Small operators are gaining momentum, which will make the
mobile market more dynamic and drive growth
43. Peru – fixed: Low-ASPU cable connections will drive a short-term decline in
fixed broadband ASPU, but it will eventually stabilise
44. Venezuela: Service revenue will reach VEF238 billion in 2020, driven by
data services and boosted by a high rate of inflation
45. Venezuela – mobile: LTE will gain strength because operators have to meet
population coverage targets conditions
46. Venezuela – fixed: The broadband market will grow slowly because fixed
competition is low and LTE will boost mobile Internet usage
47. About the authors and Analysys Mason
48. About the authors
49. About Analysys Mason
50. Research from Analysys Mason
51. Consulting from Analysys Mason
Contents
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America,
2014–2020
Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014–2020) and market
size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Latin America
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband
household penetration, by country, Latin America, 2020
Figure 6: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in Latin
America, 2014
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed
broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Latin America, 2014–2020
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2014–2020
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin
America, 2010–2020
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and
3G and 4G’s share of connections, Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total
connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2014 and 2020
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2010–20201
Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and
mobile broadband connections, Latin America, 2010–2020
5
Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Latin
America, 2010–2020
Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Latin America,
2015–2020
Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Argentina,
2010–2020
Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Brazil, 2010–2020
List of figures
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015
Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Chile
Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Chile
Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Colombia, 2010–2020
6
Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Peru, 2010–2020
List of figures
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015
Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Peru
Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Peru
Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 74: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 75: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 76: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Venezuela
Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 78: Fixed ASPU by service type, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 79: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Venezuela
7
List of figures
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015
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20
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enu
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SD
bill
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)
Source: Analysys Mason
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and
wholesale), Latin America, 2010–2020
9
More than 60% of the revenue growth in Latin America (LATAM)
between 2014 and 2020 will come from mobile services.
LATAM’s telecoms service market will be worth USD140 billion in
2020, up from USD123 billion in 2014 (at a 2.1% CAGR). Retail
revenue (end-user spending) will account for USD134 billion of
this, while wholesale (inter-company) revenue will account for the
rest. Fixed and mobile data services will drive most of the growth.
Smartphone adoption continues to be strong (Telefónica’s
smartphone user base in LATAM grew by 52% between 2013
and 2014, supporting 62% growth in mobile data traffic) and
LTE is gaining momentum – particularly in Brazil (which
received a strong boost from the FIFA World Cup in 2Q 2014).
The fixed broadband market will continue to grow as operators
intensify their customer segmentation strategies to attract
previously unserved users (household penetration is still low at
36% in LATAM in 2014), drive multi-play adoption (there are
many single-play voice and pay-TV service users) and upgrade
their customers to faster speeds (and higher ARPU levels).
Leading operators are strengthening their positions through
investments (in spectrum and fibre) and acquisitions. AT&T is set
to acquire DirecTV (which had over 19 million pay-TV customers in
LATAM at the end of 2014), as well as Iusacell and Nextel in
Mexico. Telefónica’s acquisition of GVT has been approved and
MVNOs continue to enter some markets.
Latin America’s telecoms market offers significant growth opportunities
for operators – service revenue will reach USD140 billion by 2020
Mobile voice Mobile messaging Retail revenue:
Service revenue (retail and wholesale):
Mobile handset data
Mobile broadband Mobile M2M
Fixed voice and narrowband Fixed broadband and IPTV
Business network services
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Arg
enti
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Bra
zil
Ch
ile
Co
lom
bia
Mex
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Pe
ru
Ven
ezu
ela
LATA
M
Per
cen
tage
of
con
nec
tio
ns
Per
cen
tage
of
ha
nd
sets
Source: Analysys Mason
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections
(excluding M2M), Latin America, 2014 and 2020
20
Smartphone adoption is quite strong in LATAM: 64% of handsets
will be smartphones by 2020.
Smartphone net additions reached 62.5 million in the region in
2014, up from 47.8 million in 2013. We estimate that LATAM had
174 million smartphone connections in 2014, of which Telefónica
had the greatest share (43%). By 2020, there will be 489 million
smartphone connections in the region.
Venezuela had the highest smartphone penetration rate in LATAM
in 2014 (at 45% of handsets, which will grow to 72% in 2020), as
poor fixed broadband coverage pushes consumers towards mobile
Internet access. Smartphones also remain somewhat of a status
symbol in Venezuela – more so than in other LATAM countries.
Brazil will account for 43% of smartphone net additions in LATAM
between 2014 and 2020. The country’s LTE coverage is advanced
because operators had to meet specific conditions for the FIFA
World Cup and the addressable market is very large – Brazil had
about 200 million inhabitants in 2014, and further growth is
expected among the migrant community. This makes the country
appealing for vendors, which are likely to introduce inexpensive
smart devices that encourage take-up of advanced data services
– even among low-spending users.
We assume operators will continue to stimulate smartphone
adoption via targeted campaigns to promote device upgrades,
handset subsidies, as well as voice, SMS and data packages.
Smartphones and LTE: Venezuela will have the highest smartphone
penetration, but Brazil will lead LTE take-up rates over the next 5 years
2014 2020 Smartphones as a percentage of handsets:
LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M): 2014 2020
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015
CONTENTS
47
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
REGIONAL FORECASTS AND CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISON
INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY FORECASTS
ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015 48
About the authors
Pablo Iacopino (Senior Analyst) focuses on forecasting and analysing telecoms markets in Europe and Latin America. He leads Analysys
Mason's Global Telecoms Forecasts and European Core Forecasts research programmes, and is the lead analyst for research on the Latin
America region. Pablo is also a key contributor to our European Country Reports and Telecoms Market Matrix. Pablo joined Analysys Mason in
2012, after 8 years in the telecoms industry. He worked for 5 years in Strategy and Investor Relations at Telecom Italia, where he was
responsible for European telecoms benchmarking, followed by 3 years in investment banking as a senior equity research analyst covering
telecoms stocks. Pablo specialises in industry analysis, benchmarking, modelling, forecasts and valuation. He holds a Master's degree in
business administration and a postgraduate Master's degree in statistics and economics from Università degli Studi di Roma 'La Sapienza'.
Roman Orvisky (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market
Matrix, European Core Forecasts and European Country Reports programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in
the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman
focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and
browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the
Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.
Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015 49
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