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Running head: HOW THE HEALTH OF LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIES IMPACT
How the Health of Latin American Economies Impact the U.S. and the Rest of the World
Jamie Jackson
Texas Woman’s University
Global Business 5923.51
Dr. Mahesh Raisinghani
August 12, 2011
1 | P a g e
HOW THE HEALTH OF LATIN ECONOMIES IMPACT
Abstract
This manuscript will help the reader understand how the health of the Latin American
economies impact the United States and the rest of the world. The countries discussed in this
paper will be Brazil, Peru, Mexico, and Chile. For each country, the current market will first
be considered, and then the latest research on each country’s global and U.S. impact will then
be expanded upon. Finally, suggestions for lasting growth for each Latin American country
will be provided, with the reasons for each suggestion.
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Introduction
Latin American economies are shifting from third world status to strong emerging
markets. These economies are proving to be key power players in the global market. The
economies of Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Peru are experiencing growth and demand. However,
the challenge lies in sustaining this growth (Ahmad, 2011`). The economies of Brazil, Mexico,
Chile, and Peru have significant impacts both on the United States and the world. These
economies’ current conditions affect the global economy. These economies have witnessed
dramatic increases in capital flows (Ahmad, 2011`). Now, these emerging markets are looking
to becoming advanced economies in the global world. The citizens of these Latin American
countries are calling for better healthcare, education, and an increase in infrastructure (Ahmad,
2011`). Brazil is receiving heavy investment due to the Olympics and the World Cup (Moore,
2011). Mexico is also reaping the benefits gained from a healthy U.S. industrial sector (Moore,
2011). Chile and Peru have both signed Federal Trade Agreements with the U.S. Chile is one of
the leading Latin American countries due to demand for its high priced copper (Hornbeck, 2011).
Peru has benefited from high prices for its precious metals, gold and copper (Hornbeck, 2011).
The Latin American economies of Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Peru are emerging as lucrative
economies for investment and trade. These countries’ only challenge remains sustaining this
growth and achieving economic stability.
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Brazil
Current Market
Brazil’s business environment has steadily grown over the last ten years. In 2010,
Brazil ranked fourth in the world’s market size with an index of 21, and eleventh in the world in
market growth rate (globalEdge, 2010). The GDP for 2011 is predicted to be 4.3% (Economic
Intelligence Unit, 2010). Brazil’s consumer class has experienced a rapid growth, which has
helped attract foreign investors. In 2010, Brazil was ranked fourth in the world with a foreign
direct confidence index score of 1.53 (Kearney, 2010).
One of Brazil’s top commodities is Petrobas, a relatively new oil find that is
speculated to contain between 5-8 billion barrels of light oil and gas at the Tupi field, which is
155 miles offshore from southern Brazil (Schneyer, 2007). Brazil’s industrial sector is one of the
most advanced in all of the Latin American countries and accounts for approximately one-third
of the country’s GDP. Automobiles, coffee, textiles, shoes, computers, aircraft, and machinery
are just a few of Brazil’s major industries. Agriculture also plays a leading role in Brazil’s
economy and is considered an important factor for economic growth and foreign exchange. In
2009, Brazil had an agricultural trade balance of $55 billion (globalEdge, 2010). The country’s
top agricultural products are coffee, sugarcane, tropical juice, and frozen concentrated orange
juice. Brazil also owns the world’s largest commercial cattle herd, which consists of 170 million
head.
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HOW THE HEALTH OF LATIN ECONOMIES IMPACT
Global/US Impact
In 2010, Forbes ranked Brazil in 62nd place out of the top 500 best countries for doing
business (Forbes, p.3, 2010). In 2010, globalEdge ranked it number 58 out of 139 in global
competitiveness. Brazil’s strengths in the global market include its large variety of natural
resources, large proportion of manufactured products and exports, ability to cope with
international market instability, and competitive labor costs. Although Brazil is best known for
soccer and supermodels, it’s now also becoming known as destination for investment capital,
according to Bloomberg Businessweek (Bloomberg Businessweek, 2009). At the end of 2008,
foreign investors had committed $28 billion in venture and private equity capital companies in
Brazil. Among its weaknesses are its high complex tax rates and lack of infrastructure,
corruption, and bribery. Brazilian has high payroll taxes, which can account at times for up to
40% of an employer’s payroll taxes. Brazil also has very extensive labor laws in which workers
are entitled long paid vacations, large bonuses, food, and health insurance.
Suggestions for Lasting Growth
Brazil’s taxes are among the highest and most complex in the world. In order to
attract more foreign investment their government needs to not only lower the tax rate but also
simplify the tax code. Brazil won the bids to host the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in
2014. In order to prepare to host these events they will have to make large improvements in their
infrastructure, particularly in its roads, airports, and railways. In doing so, this will also help
attract foreign businesses to locate there. Brazil’s workforce is made up of largely unskilled
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HOW THE HEALTH OF LATIN ECONOMIES IMPACT
labor. Their government needs to make improvements in the education system so that more of
its citizens can attend college or trade schools.
Mexico
“Viva Mexico!”, or as it is translated in English, long live Mexico. That is precisely the
attitude that Mexico has taken in regard to its economy. After a recent slump in the global
economy and a near collapse of the economy in 1995, Mexico is showing the world that it can
persevere against difficult odds. Within the last 5 years, Mexico’s economy has been dealt
blows by the Global Recession of 2009, a weakening of the U.S. economy, and a decline in
tourism due to the H1N1 virus, and rampant violence by the drug cartels (Mexico, 2011).
Nevertheless, the Mexican economy is on the upswing and showing economic growth.
Economic Blows
Mexico has weathered through a recent series of economic hits. Perhaps the hardest of
these blows was the global recession of 2009. According to M. Angeles Villarreal, “Mexico’s
economy was hit harder than most Latin American countries during the global recession of
2009.” Mexico’s economy contracted by 6.5% in 2009 (Mexico, 2010). Because the Mexican
economy is closely tied to the U.S. economy, it felt the impact of fewer exports to its largest
trade partner, the U.S. Moreover, the country faced a downturn in tourism due to the H1N1 virus
in 2009. The H1N1 virus caused severe respiratory illness in infected people. Because Mexico
had 84 confirmed deaths of swine flu, many countries halted trade while many airlines canceled
flights to Mexico. This put a damper on Mexico’s economy because tourism accounts for a
significant amount of GDP. Moreover, a slowdown in trade has caused the amount of
remittances from Mexicans in the U.S. to decline (Villarreal, 2011).
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HOW THE HEALTH OF LATIN ECONOMIES IMPACT
Current Market
Mexico is the most populated of the Spanish speaking countries with a 131 million
inhabitants (Mexico, 2010). Given its close proximity to the U.S., trade between Mexico and the
U.S. becomes a necessity. The Mexican economy is characterized as a market economy. In
2010, it is estimated that Mexico had a GDP of $1 trillion. It is expected to realize a GDP
growth of 4.5%. It adopted macroeconomic approach by entering in on various trade agreements
with other nations (Mexico, 2010). The World Bank has classified Mexico as an upper-middle-
income country because of its per capita GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) of $15, 720 in
2010 (Villarreal, 2011).
Mexico’s economy is a mixture of agricultural products, manufacturing, and various
services. Mexico has a multitude of natural resources such as petroleum, natural gas, and
copper. Mexico’s agriculture or 4% of GDP is comprised of products such as corn, rice, and
fruit (Mexico, 2010). Industry based companies contribute to 31% of GDP. The bulk of
Mexico’s economy, 64% of GDP, relies on commerce and other services such as tourism
(Mexico, 2010). In addition, Mexicans living in the United States send many remittances back to
Mexico. It is the source of an average $21 billion a year (Villarreal, 2011).
Mexico’s economy relies heavily on the various trade agreements it has with many
countries (Villarreal, 2011). Mexico is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO),
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the G-20, and the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (Mexico, 2011). Mexico’s largest trading partner is the U.S.
while China is its second largest trading partner (Villarreal, 2011). The U.S. receives 80% of
Mexico’s exports. Consequently, any economic downtown in the U.S. is bound to have a
significant impact on Mexico (Villarreal, 2011).
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U.S./Mexico Relations
Perhaps no other country is more closely tied to the U.S. than Mexico. Mexico’s
economic reliance on the U.S. is the result of its close proximity to the U.S. and the fact that 80%
of Mexican exports are shipped to the U.S (Villarreal, 2011). Consequently, the Mexican
economy is significantly affected by any change in the U.S. economy. Mexico is the United
States’ third largest trading partner after China and Canada (Villarreal, 2011). Mexico’s main
export to the United States is oil. Mexico is the United States’ second-largest supplier of oil, and
over one-third of Mexico’s revenues come from oil (Mexico, 2010). The next largest export to
the U.S. comes from the automotive sector. In 2010, the United States imported almost $51
billion in motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts (Villarreal, 2011). It is this manufacturing
industry in Mexico that has attracted investment from U.S. companies. These maquiladoras, or
assembly plants, have attracted industries such as auto parts and electronic goods. U.S.
companies are able to situate plants in Mexico where they realize lower labor costs. According
to M. Angeles Villarreal (Villarreal, 2011), “Many economists believe that maquiladoras are an
important part of the U.S. corporate strategy in achieving competitively priced goods in the
marketplace.” The 2,000 mile border region with the U.S. contains most of the assembly plants
and workers. In Tijuana there are 590 plants while 339 plants are located in Cd. Juarez
(Villarreal, 2011). Although some analysts cite loss of U.S. jobs because of the assembly plants,
the close proximity to the U.S. actually allows for greater U.S. content in the final product. This
actually helps sustain jobs. Moreover, a higher degree of U.S. content allows for greater quality
products (Villarreal, 2011).
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HOW THE HEALTH OF LATIN ECONOMIES IMPACT
Global Impacts
As a member of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), Mexico has realized
significant economic benefits by trading with the United States (Villarreal, 2011). Recently
NAFTA approved a pilot program for Mexican trucks, which allows for greater economic
integration for North America. It will require numerous safety inspection requirements
(Villarreal, 2011). The pilot program for Mexican trucks represents a great victory for North
American integration (Everything's Bigger in Texas. Even the Income Gap. Nafta's Rolling
Thunder, 2011). The North American economy has been affected by low cost suppliers such as
India and China which has displaced many North American companies (Villarreal, 2011). A
greater North American integration might decrease the amount of imports by the United States
from China. This could attract more companies to Mexico that would be able to take advantage
of low wages and openness of trade with the United States.
Suggestions for Lasting Growth
In order for the Mexican economy to continue to prosper, I propose the following
suggestions. First, Mexico should privatize PEMEX, the state owned oil monopoly of Mexico.
PEMEX retains control over oil and natural gas exploration. Moreover, Mexico imports oil and
gas because of a serious lack of refinery capacity (Mexico, 2011). Privatization of PEMEX
would allow for private investment in other oil reserves as Mexico’s known reserves are in
decline (Mexico, 2011). Secondly, Mexico should invest in education. According to M.
Angeles Villarreal (Villarreal, 2011), “Mexico needs to invest more in education; innovation and
infrastructure; and in the quality of national institutions.” A highly skilled workforce attracts
foreign investment. Mexico should also invest heavily in its infrastructure. It has the most
extensive network of transportation in Latin America with 366, 341 kilometers of paved roads
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HOW THE HEALTH OF LATIN ECONOMIES IMPACT
(Mexico, 2011). Another suggestion for Mexico is to improve its agricultural sector. Exports of
fruits and vegetables have increased dramatically to $4.7 billion worth of agricultural exports to
the United States in 2009 (Mexico, 2010). Agriculture in Mexico has suffered because of small-
scale producers and lack of infrastructure. In the United States, we see huge plots of land
devoted solely for agriculture. Mexico should employ the United States’ method of growing
products on huge parcels of land (Mexico, 2010). Lastly, Mexico should look to decrease
poverty. Poverty may be decreased by increasing education standards, funding infrastructure
projects, allowing farmers to cultivate products on more acreage. Mexico’s poverty continues to
plague rural areas (Villarreal, 2011). Mexico has a program called Oportunidades that has
sought to alleviate poverty in Mexico by providing nutrition and health services to the poor
(Villarreal, 2011). Furthermore, Mexico can achieve stability in its economy by privatizing
state-owned monopolies, improving infrastructure and education, increasing agriculture, and by
improving the living standards of the poor.
Peru
Current Market
Peru is a country in western South America with an estimated population of 29.5 million,
and it is bordered by Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, and the Pacific Ocean on the
west (ECEO, 2011). Peru has undergone periods of political unrest and fiscal crisis as well as
periods of stability and economic upswing. It is a representative democratic republic divided into
25 regions. Its main economic activities include agriculture, fishing, mining, and manufacturing
of products such as textiles (ECEO, 2011). Peru is a developing country with a market-oriented
economy; the IMF at US$5, (ECEO, 2011). Historically, the country's economic performance
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has been tied to exports, which provide hard currency to finance imports and external debt
payments.
Peru has peculiar income inequalities and hence it has 20 percent of the population
controls over 54 percent of the national income. Estimation on income reveals about 50 percent
of the population stay in poverty whereas 20 percent are below the poverty line (Ana Peruana,
2011). Although they have provided substantial revenue, self-sustained growth and a more
egalitarian distribution of income have proven elusive. According to 2010 data, 31.3% of its total
population is poor, including 9.8% that is extremely poor (Ana Peruana, 2011). All the above
factors have lead to the launch of Peru Healthcare Policy by the government and utmost care is
taken regarding the Peru health. The Healthcare System is designed very specifically for the
Peruvians so that they can avail the Peru health care policy under any circumstances. Peru health
care system is working effectively with a vision to improve the health conditions of all the
Peruvians and gain a level in Peru health.
Peru Global/US Impact
When it comes to healthcare in Peru, the country faces a daunting task. There are a
number of challenges for the country in healthcare. Besides fighting against a range of diseases,
the healthcare system in Peru also has to fight against the lower infrastructure as well as
centralization of wealth. As the country sees contrasting inequalities of wealth among its
citizens, only a selected few can avail good quality medical services. Though the U.S. Agency
for International Development (USAID) is currently supporting the efforts of the Peru
government to decentralize the healthcare system of the nation, yet healthcare in Peru has way to
go (Ana Peruana, 2011).
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With the help of US government, Peru is working towards improving their medical
infrastructure as well as enhancing their reach to cover more number of poor people. The
government is trying to expand the primary care services as much as possible. In order to
improve the Peru healthcare system, Seguro Integral de Salud (SIS) was established in 2002 to
offer free healthcare to all the citizens (Futurey Years, 2011). However, a few hidden costs like
travel and prescription drug costs also came as barrier for the poor.
Peru will have little effect on the United States because of the relatively small size of
Peru’s economy in relation to the U.S. economy. In 2006, Peru had U.S. imports from Peru
account for 0.3% and U.S. exports to Peru account goes for 0.3% of total U.S. exports
(Villarreal, 2007). U.S. exporters have substantially larger tariff barriers on their exports to Peru
than do Peruvian exporters on their exports to the United States. In April 2005, Peru’s Health
Ministry released an evaluation of potential effects of a free trade agreement on access to
medicines in Peru (Villarreal, 2007). The study stated that an agreement would affect generic
brands of medicine in that many of these medicines would no longer be eligible to be branded as
generic. The poor populations of Peru also concern a number of non-government organizations
based in the United States and Latin America that a PTPA would reduce access to essential
medicines.
Suggestion for Lasting Growth
Peru is a country with many climates and geographical zones that make it a very
important agricultural nation. Peru agricultural exports are highly appreciated and include
artichokes, grapes, avocados, mangoes, peppers, sugarcane, organic coffee and premium-quality
cotton. The Government of Peru's economic stabilization and liberalization program lowered
trade barriers, eliminated restrictions on capital flows, and opened the economy to foreign
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investment, with the result that Peru now has one of the most open investment regimes in the
world. Peru is an international leader in fishing, producing nearly 10 percent of the world's fish
catch. A Peru rank fifth worldwide in gold production (first in Latin America), second in copper,
and is among the top 5 producers of lead and zinc. Manufacturing: Because of its long
dependence on raw material exports, Peru has developed a minor manufacturing sector. The
sector now represents 23 percent of GDP and is tied heavily to mining, fishing, agriculture,
construction and textiles (Avameg,2011). Manufacturing is mainly devoted to processing to gain
a value-added advantage. The most promising sector is textiles, metal mechanics, food industry
and agricultural industry (Avameg, 2011). Tourism has represented a new growth industry in
Peru since the early 1990s, with the government and private sector dedicating considerable
energies to boosting the country's tourist destinations both to Peruvians and foreigners (Avameg,
2011). Between 1992 and 2001, Peru attracted almost $17 billion in foreign direct investment in
Peru, after negligible investment until 1991, mainly from Spain, the United States, Switzerland,
Chile, and Mexico.
Chile
Current Market
Chile has one of Latin America’s fastest growing and strongest economies. Chile's
economy is based on the export of minerals, which account for about half of the total value of
exports. Copper is the nation's most valuable resource, and Chile is the world's largest producer.
Agriculture is the main occupation of about 15% of the population; it accounts for about 6% of
the national wealth, and produces less than half of the domestic needs. The Vale of Chile is the
country's primary agricultural area; its vineyards are the basis of Chile's wine industry. Grapes,
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HOW THE HEALTH OF LATIN ECONOMIES IMPACT
apples, pears, onions, wheat, corn, oats, peaches, garlic, asparagus, onions, potatoes, sugar beets,
and beans are the chief crops. Livestock production includes beef and poultry. Sheep raising is
the chief pastoral occupation, providing wool and meat for domestic use and for export. Fishing
and lumbering are also important economic activities. Chile's industries largely process its raw
materials and manufacture various consumer goods. The major products are copper and other
minerals, processed food, fish meal, iron and steel, wood and wood products, transportation
equipment, and textiles. Chile's overall trade profile has traditionally been dependent upon
copper exports. The state-owned firm CODELCO is the world's largest copper-producing
company, with recorded copper reserves of 200 years. Chile has made an effort to expand
nontraditional exports. The most important non-mineral exports are forestry and wood products,
fresh fruit and processed food, fishmeal and seafood, and wine. The dependence of the economy
on copper prices and the production of an adequate food supply are two of Chile's major
economic problems.
Chile's main imports are petroleum and petroleum products, chemicals, electrical and
telecommunications equipment, industrial machinery, vehicles, and natural gas. In addition to
minerals, it also exports fruit, fish and fish products, paper and pulp, chemicals, and wine. The
chief trading partners are the United States, China, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Argentina, and South
Korea. Chiles GDP was $231, 925 billion with 6.2% growth. Their exports were $71, 029 billion
in 2010. Their imports were $55, 174 billion in 2010 and consisted of petroleum and petroleum
products, chemicals, electrical and telecommunications equipment, industrial machinery,
vehicles, and natural gas. Their main import partners are United States, China, Argentina, Brazil,
and South Korea.
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Global/US Impact
Chile has a market-oriented economy characterized by a high level of foreign
trade and a reputation for strong financial institutions and sound policy that have
given it the strongest sovereign bond rating in South America. Chile deepened its
longstanding commitment to trade liberalization with the signing of a free trade
agreement with the US, which took effect on 1 January 2004. The United States-Chile
Free Trade Agreement is a free trade agreement between the United States and Chile signed on
June 6, 2003. The pact came into force on January 1, 2004 after nearly a decade of negotiations
with the US being Chile’s main trading partner. On that date, tariffs on 90% of U.S. exports to
Chile and 95% of Chilean exports to the United States were eliminated. The agreement also
established that Chile and the U.S. will establish duty free trade in all products within a
maximum of 12 years (2016). In 2009, bilateral trade between the United States and Chile
reached US$ 15.4 billion, a 141% increase over bilateral trade levels before the U.S.-Chile FTA
took effect. In particular, U.S. exports to Chile in 2009 showed a 248% increase over pre-FTA
levels. Chile claims to have more bilateral or regional trade agreements than any
other country. It has 57 such agreements (not all of them full free trade
agreements), including with the European Union, Mercosur, China, India, South
Korea, and Mexico. Canadian-Chilean relations reached an important milestone in 2007, with
the 10th anniversary of the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement (CCFTA). Signed on
December 5, 1996, and implemented on July 5, 1997, the CCFTA is a comprehensive agreement
that covers trade in goods and services, as well as the bilateral investment relationship. The
CCFTA was Canada’s first Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with a South American country, while
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HOW THE HEALTH OF LATIN ECONOMIES IMPACT
for Chile it was the first comprehensive FTA concluded with any country. Since the CCFTA’s entry
into force a decade ago, bilateral trade in goods has increased by 226%, growing from $718 million
when the CCFTA entered into force in 1997 to $2.34 billion in 2006. Bilateral trade in services reached
$164 million in 2005 (the latest year for which statistics are available), and Canadian investments in
Chile reached $5.17 billion in 2006.
The Australia-Chile Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is a significant market opening
agreement which will result in the immediate reduction of tariffs on 97 per cent of goods
currently traded. Tariffs on all existing merchandise trade between Australia and Chile will be
eliminated by 2015. The Australia-Chile FTA was entered into on 6 March 2009. The Australia-
Chile FTA eliminates immediately Chile's tariffs on almost 92 per cent of tariff lines covering 97
per cent of goods currently traded. This includes Australian coal, meat, wine and key dairy
exports and all other industrial goods of interest to Australia. The FTA will strengthen
commercial links between Australia and Chile. The FTA covers trade in goods, services, and
investment and is liberalizing with commitments that go beyond both countries’ WTO
commitments. The European Union and Chile also recently signed a comprehensive association
agreement giving Chile’s goods free access to the European market of 400 million people. The
agreement covered all aspects of bilateral trade relations. Chile and South Korea also signed a
free trade agreement in October 2002. This came after 2 years of negotiations and marked South
Korea’s first trade agreement with a foreign country. As part of the FTA, South Korea will
eliminate tariffs on Chilean manufactured goods, with a few exceptions. In return Chile must end
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HOW THE HEALTH OF LATIN ECONOMIES IMPACT
tariffs on 66 percent of South Korea’s exports to the country. Chile is currently in negotiations
with Singapore as well as part of its efforts to reach out to the countries in the Asian Pacific
Economic Cooperative.
Over the past seven years, foreign direct investment inflows have quadrupled
to some $15 billion in 2010, but FDI had dropped to about $7 billion in 2009 in the
face of diminished investment throughout the world. In December 2009, the OECD
invited Chile to become a full member, after a two year period of compliance with
organization mandates, and in May 2010 Chile signed the OECD Convention,
becoming the first South American country to join the OECD.
Suggestions for Lasting Growth
I feel that Chile is already on its way for lasting growth by establishing trade
agreements with various countries as well as having very diversified
imports/exports. My only suggestion is that they continue making agreements and
eliminating tariffs to help increase their presence in the global trade market.
Conclusion
Over the past few years, Latin America has undergone dramatic political and economic
change. Much of the Latin American regions were characterized by volatility and risk scandals,
crises and hyperinflation dominated the news. Investor was mostly dedicated merging market
funds. Global asset allocation models as a general rule did not reflect any consistent interest in
Latin American exposure.
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Then the last few years, Latin America has seen a complete transformation in the investor
sentiment. Stable growth, lower market volatility, low inflation, declining interest rates and
lower unemployment now provide the foundation for long-term growth in countries like Brazil,
Mexico, Chile and Peru. Latin America sustained economic strength has impacted the global
economy greatly, which has increased political stability and nurtured the growth of the middle
class demographic. This amazing turnaround has been tremendous for investors. There is a great
demand for yield globally at the moment, so much so that Latin America are seeing more clients
investing into Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Peru. Latin America was where the economic and
political history seemed to be spotty in the last ten years, now Latin America, as an investment
destination seems assured for the foreseeable future.
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