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Transcript of Latin America and Caribbean Energy Forecasting – Scenarios at 2032 Workshop February 19, 2009...
Latin America and Caribbean Energy Forecasting – Scenarios at
2032
Workshop February 19, 2009Kingston - Jamaica
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CONTENT
Energy Forecasting – Scenarios at 2032
Background and factors
Study Proposal
Study Objectives
Scope
Expected outcomes
Work plan and structure
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6
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Regional Energy Matrix
Fuente: SIEE – OLADE
211,398 MMbep 22.0%
Hydroelectrical potencial (100 years)Potencial Used
13,500 MMbep 4,2%
Other potencial renewable energy (100 years)Potencial Used
500106
bep216,869
Carbón mineral
34106
bep58,332Natural Gas
42106
bep160,965Oil
Relation: Reserve – Production
(years)
UnitReserve tested
Energetic(Not
renewables)
Inventory of Energy Resources, 2007
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Regional Energetic Matrix
Energétic matrix in LAC (Demand)AÑO
Oil & derivates
Natural Gas Coal Hydroenergy Bioamass NuclearGeothermal
& othersTotal
(Mbep)
2003 43% 25% 5% 11% 13% 1% 2% 4 601
2004 41% 27% 5% 11% 14% 1% 2% 4 993
2005 41% 27% 6% 9% 15% 1% 1% 5 057
2006 42% 26% 6% 9% 14% 1% 2% 5 155
2007 43% 26% 5% 9% 14% 1% 2% 5 348
Component of the hydropower in the energy matrix has remained constant over the past 3 years although it has great potential.
The demand for oil, derivates and natural gas still maintaining the order of 70%, which confirms them as the main sources in the energy sector in the Region.
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Projection of total population
The population of OLADE’s member countries in The Caribbean grows yearly by 334 000 persons.
According to ECLAC estimates, by 2030 the population of these countries will reach 44 million persons.
The demographic concentration among these countries will be in Haiti, Republica Dominicana and Cuba.
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Projection of total population
Fuentes: CEPAL 2007 – Solo países Miembros de OLADE
Sub RegiónVariación
2035/2010
Tasa de
crecimiento anual
América del Sur 24.0% 0.9%
México y America Central 25.3% 0.9%
Caribe 18.1% 0.7%
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Num ber of
persons (m illions)
América del Sur México y America Central Caribe
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Projection of total population Over the coming years, it will be necessary to ensure a reasonable quality of life for a growing population, with:
- Food
- Housing
- Access to safe water
- Education
- Health
And also access to electricity supply
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Energy consumption
•The average yearly consumption of primary energy worldwide is between 1.6 and 1.7 Toe / person.
This consumption is only referential, considering that in developed countries, primary energy consumption per inhabitant is eight or more times greater than consumption in Caribbean countries.
Primary energy consumption will continue to grow and fossil fuels will continue to be an important part of the energy matrix.
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Consumption of energy primary (toe/person)
Fuentes: SIEE-OLADE, Octubre 2008, - BP Statistical Review June,2008 - World Economic Outlook, September 2008
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ENERGY PRIMARY CONSUMPTION
1.4
7.8
9.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
China USA Canadá
Consumptiontoe/person
ENERGY PRIMARY CONSUMPTION
0.1 0.2 0.20.4 0.5 0.6
0.9
1.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
GRENADA BARBADOS HAITI REP.DOM. JAMAICA GUYANA CUBA SURINAME
Consumption
toe/person
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CO2 emissions
•The release of green–house gases is related to fossil fuel consumption.
•In this regard, we should assess not only the volume of carbon dioxide emissions, but also their rate of growth.
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CO2 emissions – Other countries
Fuente: Sistema de Información Económica Energética -SIEE
0.5%1.9%1.1%5 957.05 823.55 289.35 001.7USA
0.7%2.0%1.3%1 230.41 190.21 075.51 009.1JAPON
0.8%1.5%0.2%415.3399.0369.5366.5FRANCIA
2.5%2.0%1.5%631.3558.4505.9468.9CANADA
2.9%4.3%1.6%406.6352.6285.3263.3AUSTRALIA
3.2%2.9%8.5%1 165.7994.1862.2574.6INDIA
3.7%5.4%1.1%387.1323.1248.135.3ESPAÑA
12.8%0.5%4.9%5 322.72 912.62 844.62 241.2CHINA
05 / 0000 / 9595 / 90 2 005 2 000 1 995 1 990
YEARLY GROWTH RATETOTAL IN MILLIONS OF TONS PER YEAR
PAÍS
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CO2 emissions – Caribbean countries
Fuente: Sistema de Información Económica Energética -SIEE
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1 990 1 995 2 000 2 005 95 / 90 00 / 95 05 / 00CUBA 35.4 30.6 32.7 33.0 -2.8% 1.3% 0.2%REP. DOMINICANA 8.8 10.9 17.5 17.8 4.4% 10.0% 0.3%JAMAICA 7.5 9.9 10.7 11.6 5.6% 1.7% 1.5%TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 18.1 22.5 27.4 38.2 4.4% 4.0% 6.9%SURINAME 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9 -0.1% 1.3% 3.1%GUYANA 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.6 7.5% 11.7% -1.1%GRENADA 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 4.6% -4.4% 14.9%HAITI 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.8 5.0% 10.2% 3.0%
PAÍSTOTAL IN MILLIONS OF TONS PER YEAR YEARLY GROWTH RATE
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1Average yearly GDP growth, 2003–2007
Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y El Caribe - CEPAL
9%
4%
4%
5% 6%
5% 5%7%
8%
12%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
BARBADOS CUBA GRENADA GUY ANA HAITI J AM AICA REP.DOM . /DOM . REP.
SURINAM E TRINIDAD &TOBAGO
Millio
ns
US
$
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
9.0%
7.4%
0.9%
1.5%
8.5%
2.8%3.9% 2.5% 6.1%
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Energy intensity vs. GDP per capita in 2007 – are member countries more efficient?
Fuentes: SIEE-OLADE, Octubre 2008, - BP Statistical Review June,2008 - World Economic Outlook, September 2008
Fuente: Sistema de Información Económica Energética -SIEE
1
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
GDP per capita (103 US$/person)
En
erg
y In
ten
sit
y (
toe
/10
3 US
$.)
Trinidad &
Tobago
Jamaica
Cuba
Guyana
HaitiSuriname
Rep. Dominicana
BarbadosGrenada
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Foreign investment in millions of US$
Fuentes: CEPAL 2007 – Solo países Miembros de OLADE
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1981 /1985 1986/1990 1991/1995 1996/2000 2001/2005
Haití 33 37 14 62 56
Barbados 15 35 47 73 129
Guyana 14 0 397 268 233
Granada 11 58 97 178 294
Jamaica -43 232 512 1 347 2 660
Trinidad y
Tobago 678 334 1 542 3 118 3 974República
Dominicana 231 488 1 135 3 508 4 541
PaísPeriodo
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•OLADE has proposed to help its member countries in the new need to strengthen institutional capacities for planning.
•Energy forecasting, understood as proposing and analyzing future scenarios based on reliable parameters and reasonable hypotheses that are suited to the realities of each country or region, is an essential element of planning.
STUDY PROPOSAL2
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ENERGY PLANNING
• Before, the market established the development plans for the sector.
• Today's structural reforms in the energy sector have demonstrated the importance of planning.
• Energy security is a State responsibility, and planning is a tool to fullfil that responsibility.
• Energy data collection is essential for planning processes.
Study proposal2
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México & Centroamerica
Caribbean
South America
Subregional study proposal2
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•The analysis of energy demand will be made with a breakdown by sectors of consumption and energy sources.
•Emphasis will be placed on the particularities of each country and subregion.
•Be considered sources of energy that are most relevant in each country and subregion, as well as the potential for intra-intersubregiones and complementarity order to focus on important issues foresight of reality and the energy sub-regional energy integration options.
Study Approach2
2020
Analyze the possibilities and alternatives that waiting for the supply and demands in the horizon to the year 2032.
Determine some consequences that could be produced in the power sector of the Region before the alternative of possible scenes of regional integration.
To obtain a document of subregional consensus that contains the opinion of the power development.
Study Objetives 3
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Analyses of scenes that consider confront the uncertainty of the future power.
Analysis of two scenes •The Low regional integration and maintenance of existing dynamic tendencies• Scene with options for the sectors and selected specific power plants in each subregion.
Scenarios to consider4
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National: Institutions in the energy sector has a well-defined territory and the concept of "national sovereignty" remains rooted in Latin America and the Caribbean
Subregional: There are some specific subregions, linked to a process of economic integration or utilization of energy resources or additional features in a subregion
Regional: Search for an overview of the region, the optimization of complementarities that exist between subregions
Scope of the study4
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Having a long-term vision on the behavior of demand and supply of energy in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Promote the development of energy policies and strategies.
Support for energy planning agencies in strengthening institutional capacities and training professionals of the Member Countries.
Formation of a network of specialists in energy forecasting.
Expected outcomes5
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Participants: The experts from each member country, the consulting firm and professional from OLADE.
•Experts from each Country Membres provide information and participate in discussions at the workshops.•OLADE professionals will guide the study and participate in workshops.•The Consultant Team conducted exercises estimates, compiled the information and perform analysis.
Structure and Work Plan6
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Working Structure6
Actualization
the information
from the Countries
First
Subregional Workshop
Mexico; Perú;
Jamaica
Social &
economic scenarios
Energetic Scenarios
Integration
Scenarios
Second Subregional Workshop
Preliminar
ReportEnergy
Forecasting
Outcomes
Analysis by country,
subregión & región
RegionalWorkshop
Final Report
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México México y América Central - October 2008
Perú América del Sur – November 2008
Jamaica Caribe – February - 2009
Preliminary Report, Mar – May 2009
Panamá México y América Central
Uruguay América del Sur
Cuba Caribe
Junio 2009 – Final Report
Regional Workshop with the 26 member countries
Sub–regional Workshop Schedule
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www.olade.org
La energía más económica es la que no se consume y la más costosa es la que no se tiene.
De su uso racional garantizamos suficiente abastecimiento. De la eficiencia se obtienen beneficios para el desarrollo
sostenible de los pueblos, con el fin de satisfacer necesidades indipensables de vivienda, alimentación, salud y educación, disminuir la pobreza y conservar el ambiente.
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Thank you, Jamaica!
Quito-Ecuador
www.olade.org