8/9/2019 Latest Numbers Reveal the Bakken is Close to Peaking

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Latest Numbers Reveal The Bakken Is Close

To Peaking

By Ron Patterson| Tue, 23 December 2014 23:18 | 1

Benefit From the atest !ner"y Tren#s an# $n%estment &''ortunitiesbefore the mainstreammedia and investing public are aware they even exist.The Free &i('rice)com !ner"y$nte((i"ence Re'ort "i%es you this an# much more)*(ic+ here to fin# out more)

$t is has no been confirme#) The first measure# 24 hour 'ro#uction from Ba++en e((s is a %ery

"oo# 're#ictor of the future 'ro#uction of that e(() -n# it has a(so been confirme# that ne

e((s ith hi"her e(( numbers are 'ro#ucin" a (ot (ess)

$n the .D$*/s Dai(y -cti%ity Re'ortsthey 'ub(ish ! R!!-!D FR& T$5T

5&!6 T-T76 as e(( as PR&D7*$. ! *&P!T!D6) By searchin" these to(ists, then e(iminatin" the #u'(icates that a''ear on both (ists, e fin# that 'erha's 0 to 80

'ercent of a(( e((s re'ort their first 24 hours of measure# 'ro#uction) $t is (iste# as B&PD69Barre(s &i( Per Day an# BPD6 9Barre(s ater Per Day) -n e;am'(e be(o, an# notice the

secon# e(( (iste# #oes not "i%e any 'ro#uction numbers:

The 'er #ay6 in this case is the first 24 hours of measured'ro#uction an# not necessari(y the

first 24 hours of 'ro#uction) $ ha%e co((ecte#, from this source, the #ata from 2,

8/9/2019 Latest Numbers Reveal the Bakken is Close to Peaking

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an# ri"ht a;is is first 24 hour barre(s) The First 24hr Barre(s6 is a smooth (ine because that as

the sort co(umn)

hen $ sorte# the #ata by 'ro#uction in the first 24 hours $ foun# a stron" corre(ation ith thesecon# month/s 'ro#uction) This as es'ecia((y true ith first 24 hour 'ro#uction u' to 1,0

8/9/2019 Latest Numbers Reveal the Bakken is Close to Peaking

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ortin" a(( e((s by the secon# month/s 'ro#uction e see a %ery stron" corre(ation to the first 24

hours of measure# 'ro#uction)

The 5ori@onta( a;is here is the first measure# 24 hours of 'ro#uction) The %ertica( a;is is the

#i%isor nee#e# to con%ert the first 24 hours 'ro#uction to secon# month barre(s 'er #ay)

Related& Te'as Railroad Commission (ctober (il ) *as Re+ort

From this chart you can see that the con%ersion from the first 24 hour 'ro#uction to the secon#

month/s 'ro#uction is non>(inear) For instance if the first 24 hours/ 'ro#uction as beteen

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months ith no +roduction ere not counted in an! average ) B(an+s are not a%era"e#, @eros

are)

!nno/s #ata en#s mi#>2014) 5oe%er $ co((ecte# some #ata of my on from Au(y an# -u"ust2014) $f you "o to.D$* &i( an# as Pro#uction Re'ort, you fin# #ata on a(( e((s 're%ious(y

brou"ht on (ine) The #ata is in this format:

$f you #i%i#e &i(6 by Days6 you "et barre(s 'er #ay for hat $ 'resume is the first month) $

co((ecte# #ata on 332 from this source that match e(( numbers from my first 24 hour6 #atabase from Au(y an# -u"ust 2014) This as a %ery time consumin" 'rocess since each e((

number ha# to be searche# then co'ie# an# 'aste# into my !;ce( s'rea#sheet, one e(( at a time)

The ri"ht a;is as e(( as the hori@onta( a;is is the 24 hour barre(s sort number) The (eft a;is is

barre(s 'er #ay) &ne can c(ear(y see that the hi"her the 1st measure# 24 hour 'ro#uction the

hi"her the #ai(y 'ro#uction for the ne;t fu((, or near(y fu((, month) e can no say, ith %ery

stron" con%iction, that the first 24 hours of measure# 'ro#uction i(( te(( us Cust ho e(( that'articu(ar e(( is (i+e(y to 'erform in the future)

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/mpr/2014_10.pdfhttps://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/mpr/2014_10.pdf

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$ thin+ this (ea%es (itt(e #oubt that the B&PD number that the .D$* re'orts in their Dai(y

-cti%ity Re'ort $n#e;is a %ery "oo# "ui#e to hat +in# of future 'ro#uction e can e;'ect from

any 'articu(ar e(() 5oe%er $ must ma+e one im'ortant 'oint that $ shou(# ha%e ma#e a montha"o hen $ first 'oste# on The First 24 5ours of Pro#uction6

$ can fin# nothin" that s'ecifica((y states that the fi"ure re'resente# as B&PD6 abo%e actua((yre'resents the first 24 hours of 'ro#uction) hat $ #o +no is that it is the 0irst 2 hours o0

measured +roduction) $ thin+ it is hi"h(y (i+e(y that they aite# unti( a (ot of the frac+ aterha# been 'ushe# out before they starte# to measure) -t any rate, base# on the #ata $ ha%e

researche# abo%e, it is #efinite(y a usefu( "ui#e to the future 'ro#uction of a 'articu(ar e(()

.o that the connection has been firm(y estab(ishe#, (et/s (oo+ at hat that #ata is te((in" us)

This chart is a(( the e((s (iste# by the .D$* ith actua( B&PD #ata from .o%ember 1st, 2013

throu"h December 1th, 2014) There are 2,

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This chart shos the a%era"e first barre(s 'er #ay for "rou's of e(( numbers) Be(o is the #ata

for that chart a(on" ith the number of e((s in each sam'(e)

e((s in the 24000s ere a%era"in" 1,402 barre(s of ori"ina( 'ro#uction) The 28000 e((s are

a%era"in" on(y 08 barre(s the first 24 hours of measure# 'ro#uction) That is a #ro' of o%er 3