Last Report Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P ... › uploads › 2020 › 12 › ...MSTR...

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Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P 9:00 Case Shiller (Y/Y) 7.0 11/24 1.3 1.62 Last Report Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst 10:30 Dallas Fed 11.1 11/30 14.3 12.0 -2.3 -0.46 Tech Ener Last Report Upgrades Ticker Firm From To None Downgrades Ticker Firm From To OCUL Wainwright Buy Neutral Initiations/Reiterations Ticker Firm Action Rating ATVI Truist Reiterated Buy BABA Baird Reiterated Outperf FOLD Cantor Initiated Buy PAE M Stanley Initiated Overwgt PLAN Needham Reiterated Buy - Futures Rally After President Trump Signs Stimulus. Trading Up ($): MSTR (29.39), AMZN (19.62), CRSP (10.5), LIN (6.46), QS (6.03), MYOV (5.5) Trading Down ($): CVAC (-11.55), AIRT (-9.93), LMND (-4.51), NVAX (-4.44), MRNA (-3.99), FUBO (-2.68) 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 Percent Change Asia Opens Europe Opens Today’s Events Stock Specific News of Note Noteworthy Macro Events Other Markets Overnight Trading Tomorrow Overnight Trading Analyst Actions Indicators/Events Market Timing Model © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information. Earnings Reports Economic Indicators & Events BespokePremium.com For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward 1 Ticker News BA 737-8 Max test flight forced to make emergency landing in Arizona. BABA Increases stock buyback program from $6 bln to $10 bln. CZR Barron's article says stock provides a hedge if Vegas recovery takes longer than expected. MYOV Announces deal with Pfizer to jointly market Relugolix. POOL Barron's article says boom in pools will provide demand for maintenance in years ahead. VAC Mentioned positively in Barron's as most of its properties are drivable. WB Beat EPS forecasts by 6 cents (0.66 vs 0.60) on stronger revenues; raised guidance. WH Positive Barron's article says company is positioned to capture leisure customers. WYNN Highlighted by Barron's as an attractive Las Vegan rebound play. YELP Barron's says stock should benefit from economic reopening; cites attractive valuation. Barron's positive on Airlines; says insolvency is no longer a threat. Bearish Bullish Category One Week Two Weeks One Month Sentiment 0.13 0.32 0.54 Technicals 0.12 0.35 0.46 Fundamental 0.15 0.33 0.47 Overall 0.14 0.33 0.49 Average (all days) 0.15 0.30 0.60 Expected S&P 500 Return (%) Neutral Index Changes Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs. None 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 Estimate BTU Investor Update JW/A 0.34 BHE 0.16 Conferences & Meetings Dividends & Splits KNSL Will replace TCO in the S&P 400 effective 12/29. SMPL Will replace KNSL in the S&P 600 effective 12/29. h 0.7 % h 0.4 h 1.5 h Closed Oil 48.48 h $0.5 Gold 1879.7 i -$3.5 $/Euro 0.819 i 0.00 $/Yen 103.62 h 0.2 Bitcoin 27,056 h 2645 10-Yr 0.96 h 0.04 Japan China Germany UK

Transcript of Last Report Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P ... › uploads › 2020 › 12 › ...MSTR...

  • Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

    9:00 Case Shiller (Y/Y) 7.0 11/24 1.3 1.62

    Last Report

    Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

    10:30 Dallas Fed 11.1 11/30 14.3 12.0 -2.3 -0.46 Tech Ener

    Last Report

    Upgrades

    Ticker Firm From To

    None

    Downgrades

    Ticker Firm From To

    OCUL Wainwright Buy Neutral

    Initiations/Reiterations

    Ticker Firm Action Rating

    ATVI Truist Reiterated Buy

    BABA Baird Reiterated Outperf

    FOLD Cantor Initiated Buy

    PAE M Stanley Initiated Overwgt

    PLAN Needham Reiterated Buy

    - Futures Rally After President Trump Signs Stimulus.

    Trading Up ($):

    MSTR (29.39), AMZN (19.62), CRSP (10.5), LIN (6.46), QS (6.03), MYOV (5.5)

    Trading Down ($):

    CVAC (-11.55), AIRT (-9.93), LMND (-4.51), NVAX (-4.44), MRNA (-3.99), FUBO (-2.68)0.00

    0.20

    0.40

    0.60

    0.80

    1.00

    1.20

    1.40

    1.60

    16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00

    Pe

    rce

    nt

    Ch

    ange

    Asia Opens

    Europe Opens

    Today’s Events

    Stock Specific News of Note

    Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

    Tomorrow

    Overnight Trading

    Analyst Actions

    Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

    © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

    Earnings Reports

    Economic Indicators & Events

    BespokePremium.com

    For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

    Ticker News

    BA 737-8 Max test flight forced to make emergency landing in Arizona.

    BABA Increases stock buyback program from $6 bln to $10 bln.

    CZR Barron's article says stock provides a hedge if Vegas recovery takes longer than expected.

    MYOV Announces deal with Pfizer to jointly market Relugolix.

    POOL Barron's article says boom in pools will provide demand for maintenance in years ahead.

    VAC Mentioned positively in Barron's as most of its properties are drivable.

    WB Beat EPS forecasts by 6 cents (0.66 vs 0.60) on stronger revenues; raised guidance.

    WH Positive Barron's article says company is positioned to capture leisure customers.

    WYNN Highlighted by Barron's as an attractive Las Vegan rebound play.

    YELP Barron's says stock should benefit from economic reopening; cites attractive valuation.

    Barron's positive on Airlines; says insolvency is no longer a threat.

    Bearish Bullish

    Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

    Sentiment 0.13 0.32 0.54

    Technicals 0.12 0.35 0.46

    Fundamental 0.15 0.33 0.47

    Overall 0.14 0.33 0.49

    Average (all days) 0.15 0.30 0.60

    Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

    Neutral

    Index Changes

    Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs.

    None

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

    Estimate

    BTU Investor Update

    JW/A 0.34

    BHE 0.16

    Conferences & Meetings

    Dividends & Splits

    KNSL Will replace TCO in the S&P 400 effective 12/29.

    SMPL Will replace KNSL in the S&P 600 effective 12/29.

    h 0.7 %

    h 0.4

    h 1.5

    h Closed

    Oil 48.48 h $0.5

    Gold 1879.7 i -$3.5

    $/Euro 0.819 i 0.00

    $/Yen 103.62 h 0.2

    Bitcoin 27,056 h 2645

    10-Yr 0.96 h 0.04

    Japan

    China

    Germany

    UK

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  • Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

    $/Euro OS OS

    $/Yen OS OS

    2-Year OB OB

    10-Year N N

    Gold N N

    Silver OB OB

    Copper OB OB

    Crude Oil OB OB

    Heating Oil OB OB

    Gasoline OB OB

    Natural Gas OS N

    OS N OB

    Ticker Price

    AEE 76.47 -1.42 1.38 65.0

    Standard Deviations

    Below 50-Day Avg

    Avg % Return

    (One Week)

    Percent of

    Time Positive

    Ticker Price

    Standard Deviations

    Above 50-Day Avg

    Avg % Return

    (One Week)

    Percent of

    Time Positive

    -0.40

    -0.35

    -0.30

    -0.25

    -0.20

    -0.15

    -0.10

    -0.05

    0.00

    0.05

    0.10

    Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20

    Bonds Outperforming Stocks

    Stocks Outperforming Bonds

    Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

    ENDP 13.1 21 0.1 57.1 3.0 57.1

    UIHC 9.4 32 -3.0 31.3 -2.8 34.4

    LCI 4.6 93 0.7 43.0 2.5 48.4

    FIS 4.5 15 -3.1 26.7 -3.0 53.3

    PRLB -8.4 30 0.9 56.7 1.6 66.7

    LQDT -7.3 35 2.0 65.7 2.1 62.9

    REGI -6.0 39 2.3 71.8 3.4 66.7

    SWN -5.8 79 0.3 57.0 2.2 54.4

    Average Return (%)

    Next Day Next Week

    Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

    S&P 500 N OB

    Cons Discret. N OB

    Cons Staples N OB

    Energy N OB

    Financials OB OB

    Health Care N OB

    Industrials N OB

    Materials N OB

    Technology OB OB

    Comm. Svcs N OB

    Utilities OS N

    OS N OB

    S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

    Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

    S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

    Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

    S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

    S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise

    Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20

    Extreme Overbought

    Overbought

    Oversold

    Extreme Oversold

    7.4

    34.2

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20

    Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

    OBOS

    Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread i 3.6 % 5.1 %10-Day A/D Line i -27 294# of Overbought Stocks i 171 245# of Oversold Stocks h 37 26

    P/E Ratio Trailing h 29.49 29.05 Forward h 26.68 26.33

    Dividend Yield i 1.60 % 1.62 %

    Net Earnings Revisions 21.5 % 21.5 %

    Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield i 403 407Corporate Bonds i 107 111

    Current One Week Ago

    © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

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    For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward2

    For an explanation of the first two pages of this report, please click here.

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  • BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

    BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

    1100

    1120

    1140

    1160

    1180

    1200

    1220

    1240

    7/1 7/29 8/26 9/23 10/21 11/18 12/16

    1100

    1120

    1140

    1160

    1180

    1200

    1220

    1240

    7/1 7/29 8/26 9/23 10/21 11/18 12/16

    50-DMA: 1147

    200-DMA: 1194

    1118

    1120

    1122

    1124

    1126

    1128

    1130

    1132

    1134

    1136

    12/4 12/8 12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24

    1126

    Gold Future: Last Six Months

    Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

    1550

    1650

    1750

    1850

    1950

    2050

    2150

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    1550

    1650

    1750

    1850

    1950

    2050

    2150

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    1820

    1830

    1840

    1850

    1860

    1870

    1880

    1890

    1900

    1910

    12/4 12/8 12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24

    200-DMA: 1828

    50-DMA: 1878

    1887

    S&P 500: Last Six Months

    S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

    2900

    3025

    3150

    3275

    3400

    3525

    3650

    3775

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    2900

    3025

    3150

    3275

    3400

    3525

    3650

    3775

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    3620

    3640

    3660

    3680

    3700

    3720

    3740

    12/4 12/8 12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24

    200-DMA: 3210

    50-DMA: 3563

    3694

    Russell 2000: Last Six Months

    Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

    1300

    1400

    1500

    1600

    1700

    1800

    1900

    2000

    2100

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    200-DMA: 1495

    1860

    1880

    1900

    1920

    1940

    1960

    1980

    2000

    2020

    12/4 12/8 12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24

    50-DMA: 1775

    2000

    Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

    Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

    9300

    9800

    10300

    10800

    11300

    11800

    12300

    12800

    13300

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    9300

    9800

    10300

    10800

    11300

    11800

    12300

    12800

    13300

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    50-DMA: 11976

    200-DMA: 10406

    12200

    12300

    12400

    12500

    12600

    12700

    12800

    12900

    12/4 12/8 12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24

    12782

    Oil Future: Last Six Months

    Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    32

    34

    36

    38

    40

    42

    44

    46

    48

    50

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    200-DMA: 36

    44.5

    45.0

    45.5

    46.0

    46.5

    47.0

    47.5

    48.0

    48.5

    49.0

    49.5

    12/4 12/8 12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24

    50-DMA: 43

    48.17

    © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

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    DJ Transports: Last Six Months

    DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

    8300

    8800

    9300

    9800

    10300

    10800

    11300

    11800

    12300

    12800

    13300

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    8300

    8800

    9300

    9800

    10300

    10800

    11300

    11800

    12300

    12800

    13300

    6/26 7/27 8/24 9/22 10/20 11/17 12/16

    200-DMA: 10169

    12250

    12350

    12450

    12550

    12650

    12750

    12850

    12950

    12/4 12/8 12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24

    50-DMA: 12150

    12499

    Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

    Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

    170

    172

    174

    176

    178

    180

    182

    184

    7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

    170

    172

    174

    176

    178

    180

    182

    184

    7/1 7/30 8/27 9/25 10/23 11/20 12/21

    200-DMA: 177

    171.0

    171.5

    172.0

    172.5

    173.0

    173.5

    174.0

    174.5

    12/4 12/8 12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24

    50-DMA: 173

    172.72

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    accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

    purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

    responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

    4

    Morning Commentary Overview: US large caps are testing record highs as they bounce in response to the signing of the gov-

    ernment funding/COVID relief bill last night. Rates are bear-steepening, the dollar is flat amid signs of

    thin liquidity in FX (EURUSD dropped 0.5% on no news in the 6:00 AM hour), and commodities are

    broadly higher on the day. Global Economic Scorecard

    Habemus Consigno: Last night, the President dropped his objections to the combined COVID relief and

    government funding bill, retreating from his demands for $2,000 economic impact payments. The de-

    lay may result in a gap in unemployment insurance payments for people under the PEUC program

    which extends the period that people can stay on the UI rolls, even though technically by entering law

    last night the bill keeps them eligible. Since extra benefits of $400 per week for UI claimants rolled off

    in July, UI payments by the Treasury have been averaging a bit more than $1.5bn per day (equivalent

    to $390bn per year at annual run rates); turning that spigot off for a week may not crush activity, but it

    will create headwinds early in Q1 until the effects of re-started “bonus” weekly UI payments and eco-

    nomic impact payments to all middle– and lower-income households kick in over the next few weeks.

    Market Calendar: While the US is back in business for most of the week (Closed New Year’s Day, early

    close for fixed income on Thursday), a range of countries including New Zealand, Australia, and the UK

    are shuttered again for Boxing Day. Of course, it’s going to be a pretty quiet week in equity trading: US

    total composite equity volume has averaged more than 20% lower volumes between Christmas and

    New Years versus that year’s full average over the past decade. If anything, fixed income shuts down

    even more aggressively: using 10-year note futures contract volumes as a proxy, activity declines on

    average almost 60% versus the annual average during the Christmas-New Years week.

    APAC Markets: The Nikkei was flat on Christmas Day and rallied three-quarters of one percent to start

    this week, while China’s onshore large caps gained 1.3% over that span and closed at the top of their

    recent range, close to a breakout. The rest of the region was also broadly positive to start this week,

    but H-shares fell 1.1% in Hong Kong after Alibaba (BABA) spinout Ant Financial was ordered to curtail

    lending, insurance, and wealth management businesses by the PBoC. Other Hong Kong-listed tech

    names were hit hard: Ali Health (ADR ALBBY), JD Health (ADR JDHIF), Alibaba itself, and Tencent (ADR

    TME) all fell at least 6%. Copper is up for a third consecutive session and is near multi-year highs.

    Europe Markets: The STOXX 600 gapped up and has kept running today, testing the post-COVID intra-

    day highs from December 18th; a close at current levels (session highs) would be a new post-COVID

    closing high for the broad European index. Delivery Hero (ADR DLVHF) and Sinch (ADR CLCMF) are

    both up over 8% on M&A approvals to lead the index higher, while other strong performers include

    airlines, travel names, and renewables plays. Banks are the only group lower on the session, while Con-

    sumer Products & Services, Chemicals, Utilities, and Health Care are all up at least 1%. Credit markets

    are mixed to slightly lower in spread, while rates are mostly stable.

    US Calendar: With Congress headline-watching off the board for the time being and little Fed activity

    over the holidays, economic data is all we have to keep things interesting, but today’s data is pretty

    limited: just Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity to look forward to. To stay on top of all the latest re-

    ports, make sure to check out our Interactive Earnings Calendar. You can also follow US and Global

    data with our Economic Scorecard.

    https://www.bespokepremium.comhttps://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/economic-monitors/eco-globalhttps://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-earnings-calendar/https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/economic-monitors/eco-global

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    accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

    purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

    responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

    5

    Coronavirus: Christmas has brought improved COVID data to the US, though importantly the behavior

    looks similar to the Thanksgiving holiday. In both instances, test counts, new case counts, and positive

    test rates all fell, but hospitalization rates didn’t take a similar decline. Hospitalization rates have start-

    ed to slow down, but are still very high nationally. The good news is that hospitalization rates are con-

    tinuing to fall in the Midwest, and case count declines are especially large there. Midwest hospitaliza-

    tions have fallen almost 25% from their peak of 433 per million across the region, while new cases are

    about half of what they were running at the peak. Finally, deaths per day have plunged in recent days,

    but it’s important to note that the drop there is almost certainly a result of reporting delays thanks to

    the Christmas holiday rather than a true decline in deaths. It’s very unlikely deaths would uncouple

    dramatically from the trend in hospitalization as implied by the drop in deaths relative to stable hospi-

    talization in the charts below. At least 1.94mm Americans have received their first vaccine dose.

    Morning Commentary

    Note: population denominator excludes

    states not reporting hospitalization data on a

    given date.

    US National COVID Tracking Statistics As-Of 12/27/2020

    3

    5

    7

    9

    11

    13

    15

    17

    19

    21

    23

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    25007 Day Average Tests Per Day ('000s)

    7d Avg Positive Test Rate

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    Deaths Per Day

    7 Day Average

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    New Confirmed Cases ('000s)

    7 Day Average

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    Hospitalization RatePer mm Population

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    BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

    accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

    purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

    responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

    6

    COVID By State: The table below includes a wide range of COVID-19 data points by state, as a refer-

    ence. We will update it daily on this page.

    Morning Commentary

    State

    AK 2 1 267 -115 7,678 48 3.5 3.1 1.6 364.6 -157.8 10,495.4 65.8

    AL 43 2 3,311 -521 8,550 -3,943 38.7 8.8 0.4 675.2 -106.2 1,743.8 -804.2

    AR 35 -7 1,890 -389 10,195 -1,881 18.5 11.6 -2.2 626.1 -128.8 3,378.4 -623.3

    AZ 65 -23 5,820 -631 42,558 -2,432 13.7 8.9 -3.1 799.6 -86.7 5,846.9 -334.1

    CA 232 0 38,336 -4,906 337,361 13,135 11.4 5.9 0.0 970.2 -124.2 8,538.1 332.4

    CO 36 -23 2,304 -653 37,430 -1,321 6.2 6.2 -3.9 400.1 -113.3 6,499.7 -229.4

    CT 30 -1 1,423 -866 25,633 -10,161 5.6 8.4 -0.3 399.1 -242.8 7,189.6 -2,849.9

    DC 4 1 229 -18 7,650 359 3.0 6.3 1.8 324.1 -25.5 10,839.1 508.9

    DE 5 -2 634 -102 6,844 -2,096 9.3 5.1 -1.6 651.5 -104.9 7,028.0 -2,152.0

    FL 93 -11 9,818 -817 104,660 -4,755 9.4 4.3 -0.5 457.1 -38.0 4,872.9 -221.4

    GA 44 0 4,874 82 37,052 2,105 13.2 4.1 0.0 459.1 7.7 3,489.7 198.2

    GU 0 0 10 -4 277 -97 3.5 1.7 0.9 58.6 -24.1 1,668.9 -584.5

    HI 0 -1 115 -30 4,890 6 2.3 0.3 -0.5 81.0 -21.5 3,453.6 4.1

    IA 22 -31 779 -354 2,282 -1,262 34.1 7.1 -10.0 247.0 -112.3 723.3 -400.0

    ID 11 -4 960 -246 1,693 -1,265 56.7 6.3 -2.2 537.0 -137.4 947.4 -707.6

    IL 133 -20 5,363 -1,990 78,727 -15,229 6.8 10.5 -1.6 423.2 -157.0 6,212.7 -1,201.8

    IN 63 -23 4,212 -1,348 39,361 -8,230 10.7 9.3 -3.4 625.7 -200.2 5,846.7 -1,222.5

    KS 24 -15 1,323 -838 4,485 -1,242 29.5 8.1 -5.1 454.2 -287.8 1,539.6 -426.2

    KY 23 -5 2,106 -639 13,103 -8,008 16.1 5.1 -1.0 471.4 -143.1 2,932.8 -1,792.5

    LA 36 4 1,940 -565 19,038 -5,988 10.2 7.7 0.8 417.2 -121.5 4,095.3 -1,288.0

    MA 56 4 4,172 -535 69,293 -18,020 6.0 8.1 0.5 600.4 -77.0 9,970.9 -2,593.0

    MD 38 -10 2,341 33 41,227 3,685 5.7 6.2 -1.6 387.3 5.4 6,819.3 609.6

    ME 4 -1 419 -13 6,088 -1,560 6.9 3.3 -0.4 311.8 -9.5 4,528.7 -1,160.9

    MI 88 -38 2,896 -1,518 39,948 -11,144 7.2 8.8 -3.8 290.0 -152.0 4,000.0 -1,115.9

    MN 42 -16 1,677 -965 36,371 -3,716 4.6 7.5 -2.8 297.4 -171.1 6,449.2 -658.9

    MO 54 -7 2,415 -462 16,027 -2,657 15.1 8.7 -1.2 393.6 -75.3 2,611.4 -432.9

    MP 0 0 1 1 1 -31 100.0 0.0 0.0 18.1 12.9 18.1 -564.2

    MS 28 -2 1,722 -404 8,579 -1,170 20.1 9.5 -0.6 578.6 -135.9 2,882.6 -393.3

    MT 8 2 373 -180 3,547 -1,165 10.5 7.9 1.6 348.9 -168.0 3,318.6 -1,090.0

    NC 46 -11 5,380 -702 52,873 -5,471 10.2 4.4 -1.0 513.0 -66.9 5,041.2 -521.6

    ND 5 -6 204 -106 3,844 -1,043 5.3 6.4 -8.4 267.5 -138.9 5,043.8 -1,368.1

    NE 13 -2 846 -258 9,819 -2,157 8.6 6.9 -1.2 437.3 -133.3 5,075.8 -1,115.2

    NH 7 0 610 -188 6,651 -540 9.2 5.5 -0.1 448.3 -138.6 4,891.4 -396.9

    NJ 62 -1 4,090 -473 51,659 -20,865 7.9 7.0 -0.1 460.5 -53.3 5,816.0 -2,349.0

    NM 25 -6 1,139 -317 14,202 -272 8.0 11.9 -2.7 543.3 -151.1 6,773.1 -129.9

    NV 24 -10 1,938 -507 14,106 -1,870 13.7 7.9 -3.3 629.1 -164.6 4,579.6 -607.2

    NY 130 14 10,586 174 187,191 -6,504 5.7 6.7 0.7 544.2 9.0 9,622.4 -334.3

    OH 66 -13 6,817 -1,766 45,589 -10,559 15.0 5.6 -1.1 583.2 -151.1 3,900.2 -903.3

    OK 23 1 2,614 -696 19,175 3,255 13.6 5.7 0.4 660.7 -175.8 4,845.9 822.6

    OR 12 -14 971 -326 17,383 -7,336 5.6 2.9 -3.4 230.2 -77.3 4,121.3 -1,739.4

    PA 155 -39 7,760 -1,368 20,033 -3,415 38.7 12.1 -3.0 606.2 -106.9 1,564.8 -266.7

    RI 6 -11 322 -577 5,419 -8,612 5.9 6.1 -10.2 304.0 -544.7 5,115.3 -8,129.0

    SC 31 3 3,253 225 29,410 4,069 11.1 6.1 0.7 631.9 43.6 5,712.2 790.3

    SD 12 -2 380 -147 1,071 -276 35.5 13.7 -2.7 430.0 -165.7 1,211.1 -311.5

    TN 63 -24 6,342 -2,998 32,134 -16,635 19.7 9.2 -3.5 928.1 -438.8 4,702.6 -2,434.4

    TX 161 -45 12,418 -3,147 110,796 17,688 11.2 5.5 -1.5 428.3 -108.5 3,821.1 610.0

    UT 8 -6 1,987 -450 10,980 -2,547 18.1 2.6 -1.8 619.8 -140.4 3,424.8 -794.6

    VA 29 -5 3,818 256 30,288 -3,315 12.6 3.4 -0.6 447.3 29.9 3,548.5 -388.3

    VI 0 0 8 -10 217 -128 3.8 0.0 0.0 79.0 -98.0 2,067.0 -1,218.7

    VT 2 0 84 -15 4,363 -483 1.9 3.7 0.0 134.2 -23.8 6,992.3 -774.1

    WA 11 -23 2,017 428 29,600 3,385 6.8 1.5 -3.0 264.9 56.2 3,887.2 444.5

    WI 42 -15 2,265 -1,130 26,858 -2,766 8.4 7.3 -2.6 389.0 -194.1 4,612.9 -475.1

    WV 18 -5 1,195 -108 9,712 -1,129 12.3 10.0 -2.7 667.0 -60.3 5,419.0 -630.1

    WY 3 -1 220 -109 2,085 -1,353 10.5 5.4 -2.0 379.6 -188.6 3,603.3 -2,337.5

    US 2,179 -443 178,996 -33,309 1,746,006 -156,913 10.3 6.6 -1.3 539.3 -100.4 5,261.0 -472.8

    Week

    Change

    COVID-19 Outbreak Statistics By State: Level, Growth, and Per Capita (As-Of 12/27/2020)Raw Count (7 Day Average) 7 Day +ve

    Test Rate

    (%)

    Per 1mm Population

    Deaths

    Day/Day

    Week

    Change

    Cases

    Day/Day

    Week

    Change

    Tests

    Day/Day

    Week

    Change

    Deaths

    Day/Day

    Week

    Change

    Cases

    Day/Day

    Week

    Change

    Tests

    Day/Day

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    accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

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    7

    Morning Commentary

    % of % of

    State Trend Peak Cases State Trend Peak Cases

    SC Rising 100.0 3253 MP Rising 63.6 2

    NY Rising 96.9 10586 OR Falling 63.3 1941

    VA Rising 93.4 3818 IN Falling 61.0 8425

    WV Falling 91.7 1195 KY Falling 60.3 4212

    GA Rising 90.3 4874 ID Falling 58.0 1919

    NC Falling 88.3 5380 UT Falling 56.1 3974

    ME Falling 88.2 419 OH Falling 54.4 13634

    CA Falling 87.2 38336 MO Falling 51.1 4831

    FL Falling 84.0 9818 CT Falling 51.1 2846

    MA Falling 83.0 4172 KS Falling 47.8 2647

    NJ Falling 80.4 4090 CO Falling 45.5 4608

    MD Rising 80.1 2341 HI Falling 45.0 229

    AL Falling 80.1 3311 IL Falling 43.3 10725

    AR Falling 79.7 1890 NM Falling 42.7 2279

    DC Falling 79.6 229 AK Falling 37.9 533

    MS Falling 78.4 1722 NE Falling 35.4 1692

    DE Falling 76.8 634 MI Falling 34.7 5791

    OK Falling 75.2 2614 WI Falling 32.2 4530

    AZ Falling 74.9 5820 MT Falling 28.8 746

    PA Falling 73.4 7760 SD Falling 26.1 761

    VT Falling 71.6 84 VI Falling 25.4 17

    NV Falling 70.1 1938 WY Falling 24.7 439

    NH Falling 69.0 610 RI Falling 24.3 644

    LA Falling 68.8 1940 MN Falling 23.8 3355

    TX Falling 68.6 12418 IA Falling 20.4 1559

    WA Rising 66.8 2017 ND Falling 14.0 408

    TN Falling 65.9 6342 GU Falling 7.7 19

    State State

    MP Rising 99.1 100.0 NC Falling -0.2 10.2

    ID Rising 15.9 56.7 FL Falling -0.3 9.4

    PA Falling -0.2 38.7 DE Rising 1.0 9.3

    AL Rising 8.1 38.7 NH Falling -1.9 9.2

    SD Falling -3.6 35.5 NE Falling -0.6 8.6

    IA Rising 2.2 34.1 WI Falling -3.0 8.4

    KS Falling -8.2 29.5 NM Falling -2.0 8.0

    MS Falling -1.7 20.1 NJ Rising 1.6 7.9

    TN Rising 0.6 19.7 MI Falling -1.4 7.2

    AR Falling -0.3 18.5 ME Rising 1.2 6.9

    UT Rising 0.1 18.1 WA Rising 0.8 6.8

    KY Rising 3.1 16.1 IL Falling -1.0 6.8

    MO Falling -0.3 15.1 CO Falling -1.5 6.2

    OH Falling -0.3 15.0 MA Rising 0.6 6.0

    NV Falling -1.6 13.7 RI Falling -0.5 5.9

    AZ Falling -0.7 13.7 MD Falling -0.5 5.7

    OK Falling -7.2 13.6 NY Rising 0.3 5.7

    GA Falling -0.6 13.2 OR Rising 0.3 5.6

    VA Rising 2.0 12.6 CT Falling -0.8 5.6

    WV Rising 0.3 12.3 ND Falling -1.0 5.3

    CA Falling -2.0 11.4 MN Falling -2.0 4.6

    TX Falling -5.5 11.2 VI Falling -1.6 3.8

    SC Falling -0.9 11.1 GU Falling -0.2 3.5

    IN Falling -1.0 10.7 AK Falling -1.5 3.5

    WY Rising 1.0 10.5 DC Falling -0.4 3.0

    MT Falling -1.2 10.5 HI Falling -0.6 2.3

    LA Rising 0.2 10.2 VT Falling -0.1 1.9

    State State

    NV Falling -2.0 612 MI Falling -5.4 311

    AZ Rising 7.5 576 MA Rising 12.4 310

    AL Rising 10.6 527 SD Falling -20.6 310

    CA Rising 13.0 508 NC Rising 13.6 298

    MS Rising 4.4 463 VA Rising 3.7 292

    PA Falling -2.8 461 MD Rising 1.8 280

    TN Rising 1.5 442 FL Rising 12.9 275

    MO Falling -2.2 439 NE Falling -15.9 260

    OK Rising 1.5 437 WY Falling -7.0 252

    GA Rising 18.8 424 ID Falling -15.8 220

    IN Falling -4.1 418 CO Falling -15.2 206

    RI Falling -3.7 417 NH Rising 3.4 199

    DE Falling -1.7 414 MT Falling -22.5 187

    NJ Falling -2.9 391 WI Falling -14.1 187

    WV Rising 0.9 390 MN Falling -8.4 186

    TX Rising 10.5 375 IA Falling -13.5 175

    OH Falling -8.1 374 UT Falling -11.2 161

    NY Rising 16.1 369 WA Rising 2.1 158

    AR Rising 3.0 362 ND Falling -32.1 139

    NM Falling -7.6 361 ME Rising 13.0 136

    KS Rising 47.4 348 OR Falling -12.0 126

    SC Rising 21.0 346 GU Falling -28.0 109

    KY Falling -6.4 337 AK Falling -44.1 97

    CT Rising 2.8 337 VT Rising 41.7 54

    LA Falling -0.3 329 HI Rising 23.1 45

    DC Falling -1.3 329 VI Falling n/a 0

    IL Falling -7.0 322 MP Falling n/a 0

    Positive Test Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Trend

    WoW

    Change

    Positive

    Rate

    New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory

    6 Month COVID-19 Case Count By State: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 12/27/20

    6 Month COVID-19 Positive Test Rate By State/Territory: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 12/27/20

    Positive Test Rate: Distribution & TrajectoryTrend

    WoW

    Change

    Positive

    Rate

    6 Month COVID-19 Per Capita Hospitalization By State/Territory: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 12/27/20

    Trend

    WoW %

    Chg

    Hospital

    Rate Trend

    WoW %

    Chg

    Hospital

    RateHospitalization Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Hospitalization Rate: Distribution & Trajectory

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    BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

    accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

    purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

    responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

    8

    Morning Commentary Global New Cases Per Day Per mm Population (7d Avg)

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    World

    Americas Ex US

    EU

    East Asia

    Africa

    US

    Rest of World

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    World

    East Asia

    Africa

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    Ethiopia

    Ghana

    Kenya

    Nigeria

    South Africa

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    Canada

    Brazil

    Chile

    Mexico

    US

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    FranceGermanyItalySpainUnited KingdomSweden

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    China

    Japan

    South Korea

    Singapore

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    Bespoke Morning Lineup-122820 805b71Commentary 122820