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Welcometo thelastBlowing the cobwebs off your Mindwith friends of Laurie YoungThe Royal Society22nd January 2014www.samiconsulting.co.uk1 SAMI Consulting

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SAMI Consultingwww.samiconsulting.co.uk2The Cobwebs Team

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SAMI Consultingwww.samiconsulting.co.uk3Laurie Young

Died suddenly and shockingly

18th September 2013

We are missing him, and hope thatthis event captures some of his voice and ideas.

http://laurieyoungmemorial.wordpress.com/

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Laurie Young prize,Summit,Essay competition,1% club,Funding vehicle for consultancies and business schools to conduct original research into Thought Leadership.

Richard Chaplin is the architect, has more details, and would be delighted to talk about it in the break ------Remembering Lauriewww.samiconsulting.co.uk4 SAMI Consulting

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Laurie and Gill's bookInterest in futures & investmentCobwebs meetings to develop the ideasThe cards & advisory workImpetus to the Thought Leadership book from last years Royal Society event

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Where this comes fromwww.samiconsulting.co.uk SAMI Consulting

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Futures trendsDialogue about the forcesCognitive biasThree HorizonsScenariosVERGE

The three horizons framework for layering change life- cycles

Bill Sharpe, Three Horizons, a Patterning of Hope, Triarchy Presshttp://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/summary-of-verge-ethnographic-futures-framework-devised-by-richard-lum-and-michele-bowman What we have coveredwww.samiconsulting.co.uk6 SAMI Consulting

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Thought leadershipLooking back, models of Thought LeadershipThree HorizonsSome Forces for ChangeChoosing a fewFuture models of Thought LeadershipFeedbackJust in case you are not convinced of the challenges aheadBriefing on technology driven opportunities

Agenda for todaywww.samiconsulting.co.uk7 SAMI Consulting

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Thought LeadershipDr Chris Yapp

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Lauries Last Book

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The Cynical View

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Why Now?

Difficult economic timesShortening product lifecyclesCommodification of servicesShort-termismGlobalisation, BRICs, MINT

Complexity of change

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The Challenge

Individuals and organisationsWhat is Thought Leadership?Where does it come from?How is it done?Who does it well?What is the value of Thought Leadership?

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My Discussions with Laurie

Its often done badly in IT and professional servicesIts often scoped wronglyCommunicating internally and externally needs to be improvedOnce ideas are out there

Its all about context

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The Value of Thought Leadership

To individualsidentityTo organisationsattracting & keeping talentTo stakeholdersstory builds the relationshipTo governmentsability to embrace the futurewww.samiconsulting.co.uk14 SAMI Consulting

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Over to You----

At the table

Share some examples of ThoughtLeadership

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Three HorizonsDr Wendy Schultz

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Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cyclesB Sharp, T Hodgson, A CurryThe Three Horizons Frameworkwww.samiconsulting.co.uk17 SAMI Consulting

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Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum:Technology roadmapping - inadequateUK Foresight: Intelligent InfrastructuresEmerging practiceReflectionThree Horizons: The Patterning of HopeCurry and Hodgson, cases and articleGrowing community of practiceOrigins of the Three Horizonswww.samiconsulting.co.uk18 SAMI Consulting

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Todays dominant pattern(s) accumulations of past decisions & designsH1 systems are fully integrated with surrounding culture locked inWell-established ways of dealing with problems frame approaches to new challengesDominated by quantitative sense of time as a limited resourceHorizon ONEMANAGERIALwww.samiconsulting.co.uk20 SAMI Consulting

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Imagined futures and emerging changes transformative shifts from the presentExplores the full range of possible social settlements and systems that could be brought into beingSurfaces and questions underlying culturalassumptionsDominated by qualitative awareness of time as a defining moment of decisionHorizon THREEVISIONARYwww.samiconsulting.co.uk21 SAMI Consulting

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Looks both ways past and future to respond to limitations of H1 and opportunities of H3Creates a zone of innovation and turbulenceDanger: H1 capture too mired in the pastDominated by feelings of opportunity, engagement and a sense of opportunity cost trade-offs that must be madeHorizon TWO ENTREPRENEURIALwww.samiconsulting.co.uk22 SAMI Consulting

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MANAGERVISIONARYENTREPRENEUREg, MUSIC, MOVIES, CDs, DVDsEg., MUSIC, MOVIES transformational disruptor- iTunesEg, MUSIC, MOVIES paradigm buster -NapsterThree Horizons: Mindsetswww.samiconsulting.co.uk23 SAMI Consulting

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Three Horizons: Questions

What are the current working assumptions and systems of production and marketing? What are you taking for granted when you make management decisions (horizon 1)?What changes are emerging as completely new paradigms and means to understand and undertake various human activities (horizon 3)?What are visionary leaders saying?Which of the immediate changes you see represent a transition or accommodation for evolving tensions as current assumptions and work patterns obsolesce, and transformative changes erupt into possibility (horizon 2)? What opportunities do you see? What are entrepreneurs building?www.samiconsulting.co.uk24 SAMI Consulting

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Three Horizons Insights

"Instead of seeing a world of stability to which change and uncertainty happen, we instead become aware that everything that seems fixed and stable is just part of a slow process of change, embedded in other processes that extend out as far as we want to explore.www.samiconsulting.co.uk25 SAMI Consulting

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Horizon One Questions

Discuss Chris Yapps overview of thought leadershipmodels:What additional leadership models from the past would you add to the list? What are traditional approaches to innovation?What current approaches to leadership and thought leadershipdo most people take for granted?How do most businesspeople and managers assume innovation will happen?Note each past & current model on a post-it, and addthem onto the Horizon One space on your table map.

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Horizon Three Questions

Please review the 15 challenging changes weve provided as a card deck at your table.Which of the changes significantly challenge traditional and current models of thought leadership, either for the good or ill? Place them on the Third Horizon.Are there challenging changes or visions that you would add? Jot each addition down on a post it, and add those to the Third Horizon as well.Look at your First Horizon thought leadership models.Which are the most challenged by change? Star those.Which changes challenge the most thought leadership models? Star those.www.samiconsulting.co.uk27 SAMI Consulting

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Emerging models?

Dr Chris Yapp

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Why do we need new models?

Deep uncertaintiesInfluencing agendasDemographics skillsNew disciplines: interdisciplinarityWest to EastChanging world orderEnvironmentSustainabilityTechnologyGlobal networkswww.samiconsulting.co.uk29 SAMI Consulting

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Pro-Am

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Wiki

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Wisdom of Crowds

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Big Data

Government Open DataLarge Corporate Data setsInternet of ThingsBUT how to use to generate insight?

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Open InnovationOpen vs Closed modelsCo-design, co-deliveryClusters, supply-chains and ecosystemsOpen Source

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Overcoming the hype

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind ofthinking we used whenwe created them."

"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -- to move in the opposite direction."

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Overcoming the hype

Pro-Am:co-operation with known rulesWikiexperts edit the rulesWisdom of Crowdsdiversity on complex problemsBig dataso what? How to make sense?Open Innovationeco-system of expertswww.samiconsulting.co.uk36 SAMI Consulting

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Horizon Two Questions

Discuss Chris Yapps introduction of new thoughtleadership models:Do these replace older models completely?Do any of the new models address or overcome the challengesyouve just identified as most significant?Can you look at the emerging changes and imagine any additional, transformative, novel models of thought leadership?

Identify to report back:The most significant, challenging change to thought leadership;The most profound new model of thought leadership emerging;The most surprising new need for