Larry Flowers

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Wind Energy UpdateWind Energy Update

Larry FlowersLarry Flowers

National Wind Technology Center, NRELNational Wind Technology Center, NRELFebruary, 2010February, 2010


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Source: AWEA, updated through 4Q 2009

Installed Wind CapacityInstalled Wind Capacity

through end 4Q09through end 4Q09


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Source: AWEA, updated through 4Q 2009

U.S. Wind Industry 4Q 2009U.S. Wind Industry 4Q 2009


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U.S. Wind ManufacturingU.S. Wind Manufacturing


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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

Denmark

Spain

Portugal

Ireland

Germany

Greece

Netherlands

India

Austria UK It

alyU.S.

France

Australia

Sweden

Brazil

Turkey

Canada

China

Japan

TOTAL

Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2008



ProjectedWindG

enerationasaPr

oportionof

Electr

icityConsumption

U.S Lagging Other Countries in WindU.S Lagging Other Countries in WindAs a Percentage of Electricity ConsumptionAs a Percentage of Electricity Consumption

Note: Figure only includes the 20 countries with the most installedwind capacity at the end of 2008


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Wind Is a Major Source of New GenerationWind Is a Major Source of New GenerationCapacity Additions: Wind Contributed 42%Capacity Additions: Wind Contributed 42%

of New Additions in the US in 2008of New Additions in the US in 2008

Wind was the 2nd-largest resource added for the 4th-straight year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

AnnualCapacityAdditions(GW)

Other non-renewable

Coal

Gas (non-CCGT)

Gas (CCGT)

Other renewable

Wind0% wind

42% wind

35% wind18% wind

12% wind

2% wind

3% wind

1% wind

4% wind


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Nearly 300 GW of Wind inNearly 300 GW of Wind inTransmission Interconnection QueuesTransmission Interconnection Queues

MISO (64 GW), ERCOT (52 GW), SPP (48), and PJM (43 GW) account for>70% of total wind in queues

Not all of this capacity will be built.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Wind Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Solar Other

Entered Queue in 2008 Total in Queue at end of 2008

Namep

lateCapacity(GW)

Twice as much wind as next-largest resource (natural gas)in queues


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Wind Power in Queues (MW)Wind Power in Queues (MW)

Iowa14,569

Minnesota20,011

New Mexico14,136

NorthDakota11,493

Penn.3,391

South

Dakota30,112

Oklahoma14,677

Illinois

16,284

Ohio3,683

Kansas13,191

Wisconsin908Michigan

2,518

WV

1,045

New York8,000

VT155

Total 311,155 MW

MA492

Montana2,327

NJ1416

Under 1000 MW

1,000 MW-8,000

MWOver 8,000 MW

Missouri2,050

IN8,426

Maine1,398

NH396

RI347

DE

450MD810

VA820

Arkansas210

Texas63,504

Arizona7,268

California18,629

Colorado16,602

Idaho446

Nebraska3,726

Nevada3,913

Oregon9,361

Utah

1,052

Washington5,831

Wyoming7,870

Source: AWEA


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Drivers for Wind PowerDrivers for Wind Power

Declining Wind Costs

Fuel Price Uncertainty

Federal and StatePolicies

Economic Development

Environment/Water

Public Support

Green Power

Energy Security

Carbon Risk


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Wind Has Been Competitive withWind Has Been Competitive withWholesale Power Prices in Recent YearsWholesale Power Prices in Recent Years

Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes

Wind power prices include sample of projects built from 1998-2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

49 projects 62 projects 80 projects 98 projects 117 projects 145 projects

2,268 MW 3,069 MW 4,083 MW 5,165 MW 7,654 MW 9,873 MW

2

008$/MWh

Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (for a flat block of power)

Cumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (with 25% and 75% quartiles)

Wind project sample includes

projects built from 1998-2008


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Even Among MoreEven Among More--Recent Projects, WindRecent Projects, WindWas Competitive in Most Regions in 2008Was Competitive in Most Regions in 2008

Note: Within a region there are a range of wholesale power prices becausemultiple wholesale price hubs exist in each area (see earlier map)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Texas Heartland Mountain Northwest Great Lakes California East New England Total US

2 projects 28 projects 10 projects 5 projects 6 projects 3 projects 4 projects 2 projects 60 projects

241 MW 2,133 MW 1,115 MW 831 MW 713 MW 233 MW 170 MW 29 MW 5,465 MW

Average 2008 Wholesale Power Price Range (by region)

2008 Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (by region)

Individual Project 2008 Wind Power Price (by region)

Wind project sample includes projects built from 2006-2008

2008$/MWh


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Comparative Generation Costs

Source: LBL


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Renewable Portfolio Standards

State renewable portfolio standard

State renewable portfolio goal

www.dsireusa.org / August 2009

Solar water heating eligible *Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables

Includes separate tier of non-renewable alternative resources

WA: 15% by 2020*

CA: 20% by 2010

NV: 25% by 2025*

AZ: 15% by 2025

NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops)

HI: 40% by 2030

Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

UT: 20% by 2025*

CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*

MT: 15% by 2015

ND: 10% by 2015

SD: 10% by 2015

IA: 105 MW

MN: 25% by 2025(Xcel: 30% by 2020)

MO: 15% by 2021

IL: 25% by 2025

WI: Varies by utility;10% by 2015 goal

MI: 10% + 1,100 MWby 2015*

OH: 25% by 2025

ME: 30% by 2000New RE: 10% by 2017

NH: 23.8% by 2025

MA: 15% by 2020+ 1% annual increase

(Class I Renewables)

RI: 16% by 2020

CT: 23% by 2020

NY: 24% by 2013

NJ: 22.5% by 2021

PA: 18% by 2020

MD: 20% by 2022 DE: 20% by 2019*

DC: 20% by 2020

VA: 15% by 2025*

NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)

VT: (1) RE meets any increasein retail sales by 2012;

(2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017

29 states & DChave an RPS

5 states have goals

KS: 20% by 2020

OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)*5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)


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Environmental BenefitsEnvironmental Benefits

No SOx or NOx

No particulates No mercury

No CO2 No water


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Source: NOAA


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Source: NOAA


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Wild Horse Wind Power Project Phase 1Wild Horse Wind Power Project Phase 1(Ellensburg, WA)(Ellensburg, WA)

Owned by Puget Sound Energy Commissioned 2006

228.6 MW (127) 1.8 MW Vestas turbines Estimated 2008 property tax payments

totaled ~ $1.56 million Project employed ~ 250 workers during

peak construction 14-18 O&M positions ~ 80 acres of Washington Department of

Fish and Wildlife land leased for theproject providing between $60,000 and

$125,000 annually PSE also leases land from state

Department of Natural Resources


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White Creek Wind ProjectWhite Creek Wind Project(Klickitat County, WA)(Klickitat County, WA)

Commissioned 2007 204.7 MW (89) 2.3 MW Siemens Turbines

Last Mile Electric Cooperative ismade up of four publicly ownedutilities (Tanner Electric Co-op,Lakeview Light & Power, CowlitzCounty Public Utility District,Kilickitat County Public Utility

District) In order to take advantage of

production tax credits, the originalutility sponsors sold the project toWhite Creek Wind I LLC, a pass-

through entity arranged by thebroker-dealer arm of MeridianCompanies

Once complete, White Creeks equitysponsors assumed ownership in

order to receive the projects taxcredits

The sponsoring utilities hold an

option to buy the project backafter 10 years


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Elkhorn Valley Wind FarmElkhorn Valley Wind Farm(Union County, OR)(Union County, OR)

Owned by Horizon Wind Energy Commissioned in 2007

100.65 MW (61) Vestas 1.65 MW turbines Tax revenue estimated between $250,000

and $700,000 per year Project will yield a total of $10 million in

taxes for Union County $400,000 in annual land agreements Land Leased from about a dozen local

landowners 200 workers involved in the construction

process 8 15 permanent positions


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NaturEnerNaturEners Glacier Wind Power Projects Glacier Wind Power Project(Toole/Glacier County, MT)(Toole/Glacier County, MT)

Owned by NaturEner

Phase 1 online 2008

Phase 2 online 2009

(210) 1.5 MW Acciona turbines

Tax Revenue from the projectwill be ~ $4 million annuallyfor Glacier and Toole Counties

~ $1 million in annual landagreements

Total construction jobs for both

phases ~ 350 ~ 18 permanent positions


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Wolverine Creek Wind ProjectWolverine Creek Wind Project(near Idaho Falls, ID)(near Idaho Falls, ID)

Owned by Invenergy

Online 2005

64.5 MW

(43) GE 1.5 MW turbines

Tax revenue from project ~ $900,000annually

~ 200 workers during construction

4 O&M positions


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Jerome Middle School Wind TurbineJerome Middle School Wind Turbine(Jerome, ID)(Jerome, ID)

(1) Skystream 2.4 kW turbine

Installed November 2008

Jerome Middle School received a Wind For

Schools $4,600 grant through Boise State and theTidwell Foundation to offset the turbine cost.

The school solicited local companies todonate time & materials (reduced the cost of

installation)Starr Corporation - Foundation kit $373, Concrete$1000, Re-bar $600, Forming material $150, Equipmentfor digging foundation $320, Labor for foundation $2000.

H & H Utility - Crane $3000, Pulling wires, Meter,Installation of Turbine

Portneuf Electrical - 1800 ft (3 wire 600 ft each) 4gauge, 600 ft bare wire (no insulation) 8 gauge $1500.

Power by Jake (Jake Cutler) - Licensed Electrician $360

In the end,Jerome MiddleSchool paid ~$3,720 for the

turbine tower &various permits.


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Key Issues for Wind PowerKey Issues for Wind Power

Financial markets

Policy Uncertainty Supply chain/workforce

Siting and Permitting: avian,noise, visual, federal land

* Transmission: FERC rules,tariffs, new lines, PMAs

Operational impacts:

variability, ancillary services,forecasting, cost allocation

Accounting for non-monetaryvalue: green power, no fuel

price risk, reduced emissionsand water use


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The future aintwhat it used to be.

- Yogi Berra


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- 200 400 600 800 1,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Quantity Available, GW

Lev

elizedCosto

fEnergy,

$/M

Wh

Onshore

Class 6

Class 4

Class 7

Class 5

Class 3

Offshore

Class 6

Class 4

Class 7

Class 5

Class 3

10% Available10% AvailableTransmissionTransmission

2010 Costs w/ PTC, $1,600/MW-mile, w/o Integration costs

46 S W ld H


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The black open square in the center of a state representsthe land area needed for a single wind farm to produce theprojected installed capacity in that state. The brown squarerepresents the actual land area that would be dedicatedto the wind turbines (2% of the black open square).

Wind Capacity

Total Installed (2030)

(GW)

0.0 - 0.1

0.1 - 11 - 5

5 - 10

> 10

Includes offshore wind.

46 States Would HaveSubstantial Wind Development by 2030


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Landowner Revenue:Landowner Revenue:

Project Development &Project Development &

Onsite Labor ImpactsOnsite Labor Impacts

Indirect &Indirect &

Induced ImpactsInduced Impacts TotalsTotals(construction + 20 yrs)(construction + 20 yrs)

Local Property Taxes:Local Property Taxes:

Construction Phase:Construction Phase:

Operational Phase:Operational Phase:

Construction Phase:Construction Phase:

Operational Phase:Operational Phase:

Jobs and Economic Impacts from the JEDI Model

Construction Phase = 1-2 yearsOperational Phase = 20+ years

Total economic benefit:Total economic benefit:

New local jobs duringNew local jobs duringconstruction:construction:

New local longNew local long--term jobs:term jobs:

20% Wind Power in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington (20,681 MW)

2,963 local jobs2,963 local jobs

$116 million/year$116 million/year

10,520 new jobs10,520 new jobs

965 new long965 new long--term jobsterm jobs

$62 million/year$62 million/year

new jobs 92,910new jobs 92,910

$842 million to local economies$842 million to local economies

$70 M/year to local economies$70 M/year to local economies

$481 Million/year to local$481 Million/year to local

economieseconomies

$11.4 Billion to local$11.4 Billion to localeconomieseconomies

= 103,430= 103,430

= 3,928= 3,928

= $26.8 Billion= $26.8 Billion

Based on DOE Report: 20% Wind Energy by 2030(includes on-shore and off-shore development)

JEDI Model Version W1.09.03e


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20% Wind Scenario Impacton Generation Mix in 2030

Reduces electric utilitynatural gas consumption by

50% Reduces total natural gas

consumption by 11%

Natural gas consumerbenefits: $86-214 billion*

Reduces electric utility coal

consumption by 18% Avoids construction of 80 GW

of new coal power plants

U.S. electrical energy mix

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

No New Wind 20% Wind

Natural GasCoal

Nuclear

HydroWind

Source *: Hand et al., 2008


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CO2 Emissions from the Electricity SectorCO2 Emissions from the Electricity Sector

02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissions

USCAP path to 80% below todays levels by 2050CO2Emissionsinth

eElectricS

ector

(millionme

trictons)

02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


USCAP path to 80% below todays levels by 2050

02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


USCAP path to 80% below todays levels by 2050CO2Emissionsinth

eElectricS

ector

(millionme

trictons)


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Cumulative Water Savings from 20% Scenario

Reduces water consumption of 4 trillion gallons through 2030(represents a reduction in electric sector water consumption by

17% in 2030)


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U.S. Remains on Early Track To Meet 20%U.S. Remains on Early Track To Meet 20%of Nationof Nations Electricity with Wind by 2030s Electricity with Wind by 2030

But ramping up to ~16 GW/year and maintaining that pacefor a decade is an enormous challenge, requiring proactive

policy, substantial transmission expansion, mitigation ofoutput variability, and eased siting and permitting processes

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

0

35

70

105

140

175

210

245

280

315

Deployment Path in 20% Wind Report (annual)

Actual Wind Installations (annual)

Deployment Path in 20% Wind Report (cumulative)

AnnualCapacity(GW)

annual projections (EER)

Cum

ulativeCapacity(GW)


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Carpe Ventem

www windpoweringamerica gov

Larry Flowers

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