Larrain Vial Conference - LAN Airlines · Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile ... Fuel Prices...

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Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile 16 – 17 March 2009

Transcript of Larrain Vial Conference - LAN Airlines · Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile ... Fuel Prices...

Page 1: Larrain Vial Conference - LAN Airlines · Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile ... Fuel Prices LAN Airlines has been consistently profitable under the current management ... Fuel

Larrain Vial ConferenceSantiago, Chile

16 – 17 March 2009

Page 2: Larrain Vial Conference - LAN Airlines · Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile ... Fuel Prices LAN Airlines has been consistently profitable under the current management ... Fuel

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This presentation may include forward-looking comments regarding the Company’s business outlook and

anticipated financial and operating results. These expectations are highly dependent on the

economy, the airline industry, commodity prices, international markets and external events.

Therefore, they are subject to change and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise

any forward looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that may arise after the date of

this presentation. More information on the risk factors that could affect our results are contained on

our Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2007.

Information, tables and logos contained in this presentation may not be used without consent from LAN

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LAN Market Cap & Ownership

LAN Market Cap (March 11, 2009)

US$ 2.653 Billion

33%

25%

10%

25%

CUETO Group

26%

PIÑERA Group9%

EBLEN Group

ADRs

5%Chilean Pension Funds

Others

LAN Ownership (Feb. 09)

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Contents

I. LAN’S DIVERSIFIED BUSINESS MODEL

II. FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

III. FUTURE OUTLOOK

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LAN’s Diversified Business Model: Passenger + Cargo Operations

Diversified Business Model(% Operating Revenues)

3%

20%

Domestic Passenger

43%

International Passenger

34%Cargo

Others

� LAN’s business model is diversified between the passenger and cargo businesses

� This allows LAN the flexibility to better withstand unfavorable economic conditions

FY 2008

33%

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7%

12%

19%

34%

41%

21%

16%

7%

8%

11%

6%

88%

90%

73%

79%

86%

80%

70%

60%

59%

53%

3%

4%

6%

6%

22%

29%

9%

6%

19%

12%

3% 64%

Delta

American

Iberia

Qantas

BA

Air France-KLM

Singapore

Cathay

Korean Air

LAN

EVA

Cargo Others Passenger

LAN Business Model: Distinct blend enhances returns and reduces risk

Revenue Mix, Selected Companies, 2007

BELF w/o Cargo

CargoContribution

BELF w/ Cargo

Note: BELF = Break-even load factor

BELF Differential for passenger + cargo routes (2008)

Passenger and Cargo Combination

– Lower Break-Even Load Factors

– Increased diversification

Source: Companies - Last Full Year reported / LAN as of Dec08.

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LAN’s Passenger Operations are Geographically Diversified

48%

International(Long Haul)

24%

Regional

14%Dom. Chile

8%

Dom. Perú6%

Dom. Argentina

39%

3%

Diversified Passenger Capacity(% ASKs)

20081998

Dom. Chile

International

28%

72%

20%

18% 59%

3%

2003

Regional

International(Long Haul)

Dom. Perú

Dom. Chile

� LAN’s business model is diversified geographically throughout Latin America and the rest of the world

� This allows LAN the flexibility to better withstand unfavorable economic conditions

�Approximately 50% of ASKs are currently originated in Chile

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Guayaquil

2003

Buenos Aires

2005

Santiago

1929

Lima

1999

LAN’s Regional Strategy – Passenger Operations

Multi-hub/Multi-airline model– Interlocking hubs protect and

complement each other

– Higher asset utilization

1.500 KM

TAM Commercial Agreement– Implemented in December 2007

– Main Routes: Santiago, Lima, Buenos Aires to Sao Paulo

– Domestic Markets

• Brazil

• Peru

• Chile

• Argentina

TAM / LAN Agreement

2008

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Sources: DGAC Chile, DGAC Peru, Undersecretary of Transportation Argentina, DAC Ecuador, LAN Estimates.

* Intl. M.S. for 2008, Domestic M.S. for January 2009, Lan estimates.

** Information for 2007

Leading Presence in South American Markets

Market Size: Passengers Transported 2008(millions)

LAN Market Share in Passenger Markets*

Millions ofPassengers

Peru

International: 22%

Domestic: 90%

Argentina

International: 19%

Domestic: 34%

Chile

International: 57%

Domestic: 84%

EcuadorInternational: 27%

Buenos AiresSantiago

Guayaquil

Lima

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LAN´S Domestic Operation in Chile

North South

Currently, LAN has regular operations to 13 markets in Chile: 6 in the North and 7 in the South including Easter Island.

LAN competes with SKY Airlines in the domestic market (approx 15% market share).

Santiago

Santiago

In April 2007 LAN implemented it´s “low cost”model in the domestic market.

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• Lan Peru successfully inaugurated two new destinations: Tumbes and Cajamarca, serving now all 14 main destinations in Peru (all the available for A319)

• Additionally, Lan Peru increased its operations on the main destinations assuring two or more daily flights to each city (except the newly opened ones) and connecting Cusco to other two cities: Tacna and Iquitos

• Lan Peru competes with Star Peru and TACA Peru in the domestic market

(n) Number of daily arrivals/departures

Lima

Juliaca (4)

Cuzco (22)

Arequipa (10)

Puerto

Maldonado (3)

Tacna (3)

Iquitos (5)

Cajamarca (1)Tumbes (2)

Pucallpa (2)

Chiclayo (3)

Piura (4)Tarapoto (3)

Trujillo (3)

LAN Peru Domestic Operation

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• LAN Argentina currently serves twelve domestic destinations and has transported more than 3.7 million passengers.

• Route selection has been based on profitability

• Operations concentrated in main routes in order to gain market share and enhance competitive position

• No changes to the domestic fleet plan for 2009, with 8 aircraft in the domestic market

• 1 new route (Tucumán) and strong growth in current destinations

Miami

Sao Paulo

Punta Cana

LAN Argentina flights

Mendoza

Córdoba

Salta

Bariloche

Calafate

Ushuaia

Río Gallegos

IguazúTucumán

Neuquén

C. Rivadavia

San Juan

Lima

Santiago

LAN Argentina Domestic Operation

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LAN Ecuador: New Domestic Operation

� New operation expected to start in April 2009 operating with 3 A320 family aircraft.

� LAN will be the only airline in Ecuador operating in both domestic & international markets.

� Authorization granted to operate the following routes:

� Guayaquil-Quito-Guayaquil (35 weekly frequencies)

� Guayaquil-Cuenca-Guayaquil (7 weeklyfrequencies)

� Quito-Cuenca-Quito (7 weeklyfrequencies)

� Quito/Guayaquil-Galapagos-Guayaquil/Quito (1 weekly frequency –codeshare)

Lan Ecuador Destinations Highlights

Cuenca

Quito

Guayaquil

Galapagos

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Jan 09 vs RPK Growth RPK Growth

Jan 08 January 09 2008

Africa -2,6% -4,0%

Asia/Pacific -8,4% -1,5%

Europe -5,7% 1,8%

Latin America -1,4% 10,2%

Middle East 3,1% 7,0%

North America -6,2% 2,9%

Industry -5,6% 3,5%

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Latam Traffic Growth

Source: IATA – February 2009

Traffic growth by region

(CAGR 2007 – 2027)

Source: Boeing – Current Market Outlook 2008

5,7%

Middle East

5,6%

Africa

3,5%

Europe

2,8%

North America

7,0%

Asia Pacific

6,9%

South America

International Traffic Growth by Region

0,260,19 0,24 0,22

0,130,24

0,110,02

0,25

0,11

0,290,19

0,140,06

0,19

0,62

México Colombia Chile Ecuador Perú Brasil Argentina CentralAmérica

Domestic enplanements per capita International enplanements per capita

Latin American Enplanements per capita

Low enplanementsrepresent growth

opportunities in theregion.

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Diversified Passenger & Cargo Network

Madrid

Easter Island

Auckland

Papeete

Sydney

FrankfurtLos Angeles

Mexico City

Caracas

Sao Paulo

Buenos AiresMontevideo

Cancun

Bariloche

Pta. Arenas

Arica

La Paz

Pto. Montt

Cuzco

Lima

Bogotá

Santiago

Rosario

Quito

Pta. Cana

Guayaquil

Ushuaia

Salta

Rio Gallegos

Com. Rivadavia

Cordoba

Iguazú

IquiqueAntofagasta

CalamaCopiapo

La Serena

Mendoza

Concepcion

Balmaceda

TemucoValdiviaOsorno

TacnaArequipa

Puerto Maldonado

Iquitos

Piura

TarapatoPucalpa

ChiclayoTrujillo

Houston

San JosePanama

Merida

Rio de Janeiro

Porto Alegre

VitoriaBelo HorizonteSalvador

Manaos

Passenger + Cargo NetworkFreighter Network

Curitiba

Asunción

Amsterdam

Miami

LAN is one the leading passenger and cargo operators in Latin America

New York

Medellin

Toronto

LAN

Codeshare

693 destinationsworldwide

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Latin America Cargo Market

Source: Boeing World Air Cargo 2008 - 2009

Northbound

� Fish, flowers and vegetables dominate Northbound Flows

� Consumer electronics, machinery, spare parts and automotive parts dominate Southbound Flows

� Operational efficiencies must be obtained by managing unbalanced flows and seasonal fluctuations

Southbound

Page 17: Larrain Vial Conference - LAN Airlines · Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile ... Fuel Prices LAN Airlines has been consistently profitable under the current management ... Fuel

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LAN CARGO is Well Prepared to Face 2009 Challenges

� Arrival of 2 B777F will represent discrete jump in operating efficiency

� Continuous tactical reallocation of capacity to defend yield and load factors

� Contingency growth plans to maintain adequate supply in core routes (e.g. Colombia, Central America, others)

� Southbound traffic likely to decrease due to economic slowdown and dollar appreciation

� Northbound traffic likely to maintain current levels (except forsalmon exports from Chile)

Demand outlook for 2009:

Cargo business strategy for 2009:

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New Cargo Operation in Colombia

� Expected to start in 1Q09

� Colombia is the largest air cargo market in Latin America in terms of exports to the United States.

� Estimated volume for the Colombian cargo market is approx 200,000 tons annually

� This operation will provide LAN Cargo with connectivity between Colombia and the rest of the region, US and Europe

Colombia Highlights

MIAMI

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Contents

I. LAN’S DIVERSIFIED BUSINESS MODEL

II. FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

III. FUTURE OUTLOOK

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318 407600 694

9721.083

1.2371.425 1.428 1.454

1.639

2.093

2.506

3.034

3.525

4.532

0

400

800

1.200

1.600

2.000

2.400

2.800

3.200

3.600

4.000

4.400

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

US$ Million

Strong Revenue Growth

CAGR24%

CAGR1%

CAGR21%

Operating Revenues 1993 – 2008

US$ Millions

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$11 $15$34 $44

$83$62

$112

$172

$303

$413

$536

$6

$308$336

$46$80

$51 $50

$142

$38$0

$25

$64$31

$48 $48$11

$31

$84

$164$147

$241

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Operating Income and Net Income 1993 – 2008

Operating Income Net Income

(US$ millions)

Recession

9/11 & Argentine CrisisIncreasing Fuel Prices

� LAN Airlines has been consistently profitable under the current management

Consistent Profitability Despite Multiple Market Shocks

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LAN Operates with High Efficiency Levels

EBITDAR Margin Industry comparison

Source: Companies Annual & Quarterly Reports 2008; for Air France, Gol and Tam LTM Sep 08.

2,4%

4,7%

7,1%

8,4%9,2%

10,5%

12,7%

14,0%

16,3%

19,2%

23,4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Uni

ted

Amer

ican

GOL

Cont

inen

tal

Iber

ia

Briti

sh

TAM

AirF

ranc

eRy

anai

r

LAN

COPA

Eb

itd

ar

Mg

. (%

)

Page 23: Larrain Vial Conference - LAN Airlines · Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile ... Fuel Prices LAN Airlines has been consistently profitable under the current management ... Fuel

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LAN maintains a Solid Financial Position

Solid balance sheet & low FX exposure

� No short-term debt; 8% of debt due within 12 months. No refinancing risk

� Debt amortizations for 2009 – 2011 between US$200MM & US$230MM per year.

� Cash & Cash Equivalents: US$472MM; representing 10.4% of LTM revenues.

�Ratio of 2.3 times Net Debt / EBITDA & Capitalization ratio of 72%

�Low exposure to FX changes:

�All debt denominated in US$

� Approx. 84% of total revenues in US$

� Approx. 71% of total costs in US$

International BBB credit rating (Fitch)

Page 24: Larrain Vial Conference - LAN Airlines · Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile ... Fuel Prices LAN Airlines has been consistently profitable under the current management ... Fuel

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Fuel Hedging

Fuel Hedging Program 2009-2010

30%

40%

20% 20%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10

% T

ota

l C

on

su

mp

tio

n H

ed

ge

d

% Fuel Consumption Hedged

US$140 US$140 US$140 US$140 US$140Hedging Price Band(US$ barrel)

US$107 US$104 US$ 94 US$ 92 US$ 92

Average 2009: 27% @ US$ 101/Bbl

Page 25: Larrain Vial Conference - LAN Airlines · Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile ... Fuel Prices LAN Airlines has been consistently profitable under the current management ... Fuel

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Contents

I. LAN’S DIVERSIFIED BUSINESS MODEL

II. FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

III. FUTURE OUTLOOK

Page 26: Larrain Vial Conference - LAN Airlines · Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile ... Fuel Prices LAN Airlines has been consistently profitable under the current management ... Fuel

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2009 Estimated Capacity Expansion

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2006 2007 2008 2009E

19.5%

11.5%11.5%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2006 2007 2008 2009E

7.0% 6.9%

12.3%

Passenger ASK Growth Cargo ATK Growth

~10%

~ -5%

Page 27: Larrain Vial Conference - LAN Airlines · Larrain Vial Conference Santiago, Chile ... Fuel Prices LAN Airlines has been consistently profitable under the current management ... Fuel

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50 53 5968 68

32

5 5

5

9 9

9

3

4

26 2628

28

32

59

9

0

30

60

90

120

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-18

Boeing 777-200F Cargo

Boeing 767-300F Cargo

Airbus 340-300

Boeing 787

Boeing 767-300ER

Airbus A320/A319/A318

US$6.4 Billion2008-2018

Fleet Plan

141

9095

103113

Average Fleet Age (Dic 08): 5.2 years Cargo

Passenger Long Haul

Passenger Short Haul

CAPEX 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-18

Aircraft 754 274 493 599 4.300

Non Aircraft 124 165 124 109

+19+6

+8+10

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LAN’s Fleet is among the Youngest in the World

Average Fleet Age for Selected Airlines (Years as of Sep 2008)

(*) As of December 2007

(*)

(*)

(*)

(*)LATAM

EUROPE

NORTH AMERICA

ASIA

Source: Airlines reports, public information as of Sep 08/ LAN as of Dic08

5,2

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Fleet Plan Flexibility

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Nu

mb

er

of

Lo

ng

Ha

ul P

as

se

ng

er

Air

cra

ft

MIN MAX PLAN

36%

24%39%

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� Diversified business model

� Strong footprint in Latin America

� Modern and fuel efficient fleet

� Effective fuel strategy

� Successful implementation of “low cost” model in domestic markets.

In Conclusion…LAN Continues to Grow in a Challenging Environment