Large-scale land acquisitions for agricultural investment: Trends and issues Lorenzo Cotula Senior Researcher Law and Sustainable Development International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) Setting the scene Spate of media reports worldwide Little systematic empirical data FAO/IFAD/IIED study; IIED involvement in World Bank-led study Trends and drivers, land tenure arrangements, land access impacts focusing on sub-Saharan Africa Ongoing literature review, qualitative interviews, systematic inventories in 6 countries Outline 1.Trends and drivers 2.Can local people benefit? 1.Trends and drivers 2.Can local people benefit? A fast evolving context: Investment flows to sub-Saharan Africa Major increase since 2000 Driven by commodity demand, esp extractives, and policy reform Highly uneven distribution Likely to slow with economic downturn But, longer term, stuctural factors likely to stay Source: UNCTAD Growing agricultural investment agrifood Long term projections re: global food demand; food price hikes 2008, concerns about food security Land acquisitions in Africa, South East Asia, Central Asia as policy and market reaction Some governments promote acquisitions overseas - food importing, official reserves (oil, trade) Gulf states in Sudan geographical and cultural proximity Private investors (agribusiness, finance) - expect significant returns and/or land value increases Lonrho deals; Jarch Capital deal; private fund activity in parts of Africa Why Africa? Investors: Inexpensive land, favourable climates, labour available Other driving forces biofuels, carbon markets Government targets, oil prices (though decline after summer 2008) Lack of systematic data but significant investments in Africa Mozambique: 16 biofuels projects > 1000 ha, 2.18 m ha total, $3 bn investment (Nhantumbo and Salomao, forthcoming) Source: IEA 2006 Carbon markets: voluntary markets, REDD negotiations? 1.Trends and drivers 2.Can local people benefit? Polarised debates; assess risks & opportunities, develop ways to maximise local voice and benefit Major risks: asset loss, food insecurity, marginalisation... But also opportunities: harnessing capital, know-how, market access... Terms and conditions key What business models? What benefit sharing? Who decides and how? Not just investor-state deal, triangle with local resource users (decisions, benefits) Security of local land rights Population density (UNEP, 2004) Africa has most of the underutilised fertile land in the world (private fund manager); but population pressures, need for data on land availability Secure rights key to minimise arbitrary dispossession and maximise local benefit Local land rights may be undermined by inadequate recognition, major power asymmetries... Need to step up efforts to secure local land rights and support local people get a better deal Recognition of local rights, accessible recording, legal literacy training, support in negotiations...