Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction
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Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA
description
Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction. Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA. Mdl Bias = Mdl - Obs. Bias = MDL - OBS. Mdl. MDL. OBS. Obs. Model bias corrected skill. Raw fcst skill. Distinct in time-mean flows. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction
Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent
Bias Correction
Wilbur Y. ChenClimate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
MDL
OBS
Bias =MDL - OBS
Mdl
Obs
Mdl Bias =Mdl - Obs
Raw fcst skill
Model bias corrected skill
Distinct in time-mean flows
Bias forWarm events
Bias for Cold events
Bias for Neutral events
Bias for warm DJFs
Bias for cold DJFs
Bias for neutral DJFs
Lead = 1 month Lead = 4 months Lead = 6 months
Conventional forecast
Verification
Improved forecast
Large improvement in AC skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction
Regime dependent bias corrected
Conventional mdl bias corrected
Raw predictions