Large Dams - Home | UBC Blogsblogs.ubc.ca/geog412/files/2018/01/Large-Dams-Panel-Slides.pdf ·...
Transcript of Large Dams - Home | UBC Blogsblogs.ubc.ca/geog412/files/2018/01/Large-Dams-Panel-Slides.pdf ·...
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Large Dams
By: Sophie Goodman, Hassan Yarow, Cynthia So, Kristina Bell, Kimberly San, Irene Fang, Michelle Huang, Stella Fang
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Table Of Contents1. Environmental Effects (Stella)
2. Economics Aspects (Kim)3. Social Aspects
a. Social Effects (Cynthia)b. Indigenous Populations (Hassan)
4. Case Studiesa. Local Case Study (Kristina)b. International Case Study (Irene)
c. Cross-Border Water Management (Michelle)5. World Commission on Dams (Sophie)
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Environmental Effects of Large Dams
By: Stella Fang
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Global-scale● Humans currently use
50% of the global accessible freshwater runoff, estimated to be 70% by 2025
● Global effects on biodiversity, ecosystem processes, greenhouse gas emissions
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Upstream● Reservoir stratification:
○ Decreased water quality
○ Anoxic layer can kill fish
● Stagnant:
○ Aquatic vegetation and
mosquito proliferation
leading to spread of
infectious disease
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Upstream
● Drowning wildlife for dam can lead to
local and even global extinction
● Loss of eggs and young in drawdone
zone
● Methane release in drawdown
● Change precipitation patterns
● Seismic activity
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Downstream
● Sediment blocked from flowing:
○ Beach erosion
○ Loss of trees at banks
○ Loss of spawning gravels
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Downstream● Water diverted from waterfalls and other rivers
● Dam as a physical barrier
● Flow colder in the summer, warmer in the winter
● Loss of inorganic/organic nutrients from upstream
● Gas-bubble disease
● Alter flood peaks and seasonal distribution
● Saltwater intrusion in rivers
● Decrease in oxygenation and dilution of pollutants
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Economics of Large Dams
By: Kimberly San
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Background
● Pre-1970s - Well supported by the World Bank and Regional Development Bank
● 1990-2000 - Increasing Pressure from NGOs and activists. Large decreases in funding from the World Bank and Regional Development Bank (90%)
● Development and financing later became the responsibility of the private sectors and corporations
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Overview of Costs
● Pre-development feasibility studies● Land acquisition and access to site● Stakeholder consultations● Construction (civil works and equipment)● Operation and Maintenance Costs● Socio-Economic Costs● Environmental Mitigation Measures
Large hydropower dams on average cost 1800 million with an installed capacity of 630 MW
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Project Development
Budgeting Scheduling Efficiency Longevity
● 75% of large dams experience cost overruns in development
● Overruns on average are 50%
higher than estimated
● Large dams take 8.6 years to build on average
● 80% are likely to experience a schedule overrun
● Average power generation in the first year is 80% of the targeted value
● Large dams are expected to continue even after 30-40 years of operation. Cost recovery has not been a substantial problem
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Energy Pricing
Demand: estimated to double between 2010-2035. Required global electricity capacity is forecasted to increase from
5.2 TW to 9.3 TW
Electricity Price vs LCOE
LCOE – Levelized Cost of Electricity - indicator (ie. benchmark) price of electricity required for a project where revenues would equal costs. Also includes a return of capital invested equal to the discount rate or WACC
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Energy Pricing - Hydropower
Installed Cost: 1535/kW
Capacity Factor: 0.48/kW
LCOE: 0.05/kWh
Based on global weighted averages, USD (2017).
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Energy Pricing - Onshore Wind
Installed Cost: 1477/kW
Capacity Factor: 0.30/kW
LCOE: 0.06/kWh
Based on global weighted averages, USD (2017).
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Energy Pricing - Solar PV
Installed Cost: 1388/kW
Capacity Factor: 0.18/kW
LCOE: 0.10/kWh
Based on global weighted averages, USD (2017).
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Socio-Economic ServicesBenefits Risks
Electricity Generation Physical Displacement
Flood Control Flood Vulnerability
Irrigation Sediment Erosion
Increased urban water supply Dam Failure
Recreational Opportunities Habitat Loss
Inland Water Support Inequitable Profit Distribution
Job Creation Unemployment
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Socio-Economic Performance● Irrigation - Majority fell short of targets in economic terms
● Delivering Hydropower - Variable over and under performers, but
generally meets financial targets.
● Supply (Industrial and Municipal) - Poor financial cost recovery and
performance.
● Flood Control - Provides important health benefits. However, also
increases vulnerability to flood hazards.
● Resettlement Programs - compensation is usually inadequate, and
many affected were not enumerated
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Other Considerations
● Methods of Estimation● Case Studies● Valuation of Services
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Social Effects of Large Dams
By: Cynthia So
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Benefits
● Recreation● Flood control ● Water storage● Irrigation ● Hydropower ● New road network ● Tourism – short term employment opportunities
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Uses of Dams
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Effects of Displacement
● Displaced communities affected by the construction of: ○ Dams ○ Infrastructure for the dam and tunnel system ○ Roads○ Employee “camps”
● Eviction from homelands & destruction of culture heritage
● Threat of further appropriation by developers● Unaffordable cost of water and electricity
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Encroachment by Outsiders
● Aboriginal communities are forced to go to court to protect their titles to the unceded land
● Disruption in land tenure system, the abundance and distribution of fish and wildlife resources
● Partial remedial action & poor compensation to communities occur after construction begins
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Effects on Rural Economy
● Impairment to subsistence-oriented communities● Access to hunting, fishing, trapping, forest foraging areas
is more difficult & dangerous● Loss of access to essential resources● Impact on traditional knowledge● Loss of arable agricultural lands ● Limited economic alternatives
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Effects on Health
● Leading cause of mercury contamination (methylmercury)
● Rise in deadlier waterborne & vector-borne diseases● Rise in sex work ● Exposure to violence ● Emotional trauma ● Periodic controlled releases can damage flood-recession
agriculture & fishing
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Effects on Culture and Gender
● Increased workloads & decreased nutritional status reported by women
● Social tension between groups● Few & poor employment opportunities, especially for
women ● Gender inequality ● Racial inequality● Impact on marital relations ● Reduced social cohesion
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Big Picture
● Estimation that 40-80 million people in the world have been displaced by dams,
● Women and indigenous peoples have suffered disproportionately from displacement.
● Landlessness, joblessness, homelessness, marginalization, food insecurity, increased morbidity, loss of common resources, and loss of social and cultural resilience”
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Indigenous Populations
By: Hassan Yarow
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Dispossession of land and resources
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Cultural Alienation
High risk of cultural detachment● Sardar Sarovar Dam, India.
● “The surest way to kill us is to separate us from our part of Earth… We will either perish in body or mind and build a foreign prison around our indigenous spirits.”
Forced assimilation
● Over time, we lose our identity and eventually die as we are stuffed under the name of ‘assimilation’ into another society”
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Inadequate or lack of compensation
● Compensation – if provided at all – is typically inadequate○ Eg. Ambukalao & Binga dams built with no compensation
● Common resources such as grazing lands & forests are rendered ineligible for compensation
● Less cash payouts● Less & low quality land issued for land-for-land compensation
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Low Living Standards
● Loss or destruction of important sites for livelihood activities○ “We live in fear and sometimes we are
almost drowned by frequent floods. We want our natural river returned to us.”
● Resettlement leads to economic hardship
● Low paying jobs with increased islam dwellers.
More than 2 million people displaced by China’s Three Gorges Dam live in islams (IRN, 2003).
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Lack of Consultation
● No informed prior consent until construction begins or eviction notices released.
○ Kutku dam, India.● Marginalized voices.● Strong power dynamics to facilitate easy displacement.● Deliberate misinformation about the impacts and compensation
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Gender Inequalities Exacerbated
● Disproportionate impact on woman ● Compensation made only to male headed households.
○ SSC project● Larger dependence on common resources that are rarely eligible for
compensation makes women ineligible for payouts.● Improper behavior and self-exploitation due to financial struggle.
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Social Exclusion
● Deeply rooted social exclusion in the dominant society.● Indigenous people can’t get title deeds for their lands.● Pressure from national assimilation that does not acknowledge ethnic
diversity.● Frequent discrimination and difficulty to fit into the mainstream society
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Human Right Abuses
● Denial of land ownership rights after dislocation.● Violation of Indigenous People’s basic human rights.● Illegal incarceration and rape.● Mass killings of innocent lives to instill fear if they resist eviction.
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Case Studies
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Local Case Study: Muskrat FallsChurchill River, Labrador
By: Kristina Bell
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Located in Newfoundland & Labrador on the lower Churchill River.
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Why the Lower Churchill River?
● Muskrat Falls a 15m natural waterfall
● Best untapped hydroelectric source in North America!
● Newfoundland & Labrador’s (NL) other main source of energy, Holyrood proving insufficient
● Hydropower as leading renewable non-carbon resource in the world
● But a well-known spot; many environmental and social implications
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About the Project● An 824 megawatt (MW)
hydroelectric generating facility.
● Second-largest hydroelectric
facility in the province.
● The deal was made in 2010 with
Nalcor energy and Emera.
● Construction started in 2014.
● Project behind schedulehttp://thechronicleherald.ca/canada/127568-lawyers-to-fight-muskrat-fall
s-hydro-development-in-labrador
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The Economy and Cost
● Original Budget: $6.2 billion
● Final Cost: $12.7 billion
○ Including finances and other expenses
● Citizens energy bills double
● Project finished late, will not provide energy till 2020
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The Economy and CostPros
● Hydropower = less money on oil
● Stable energy prices
● Project as investment
● Reduce dependence on Quebec
● Link to energy grid for exports
Cons
● Project went over budget
● Huge project costs for the province
● Destabilized energy prices as citizens pay off project
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http://aptnnews.ca/2017/08/03/fight-against-muskrat-falls-continues-as-transformers-arrive-on-site/
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Environmental AspectsUpstream
● Physical Flooding● Risk of methylmercury
contamination
Downstream
● Disrupts erosion and sediment cycles
● Disrupts fish migratory patterns● Contaminated water to
communities
*Carbon emissions reduced for the province
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Social Advantages
● Jobs: creating almost 3000 during construction alone
● Green Energy: 98% of NL to be powered by green energy
● Exports and Connection: Linking NL, NS, and the
Maritimes to the North American energy grid
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Social Impacts● Increased energy prices
● Originally an iconic recreational area
● Located in Labrador, while they receive less energy
● Indigenous communities displaced
● High cost of living in Labrador, but living off the land helps
○ This is jeopardized
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Resistance● The Nunatsiavut Government, started
the ‘Make Muskrat Right Campaign’
● Methylmercury a huge concern to the
public and Lake Melville
● The Government created a study to
prove the threat
● Protesters and campers
● Hunger strikes
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Summary: Muskrat Falls
● Muskrat Falls = huge energy source
● A valuable project for the economy and renewable energy goals
● But largely over budget: $12.7 billion
● Reduction in carbon emissions, but also great environmental
impacts
● Socially connecting the provinces to energy grid, but local
communities threatened and displaced
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International Case Study: The Three Gorges DamYangtze River, China
By: Irene Fang
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The Three Gorges Dam (TGD)
● Stretches more than 2km
across the Yangtze river● Height: ~200m● Volume: 40 million cubic
meters● Reservoir:
○ ~600km long
○ Has a storage capacity of
~40 billion cubic meters
About
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Map
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History1986
The Chinese ministry of water resources and electric power asks the Canadian Government to finance a feasibility study
1919
First mention of the TGD by Sun Yat-sen
1953
Mao Zedong proposes the dam again to control the flooding
1992
construction was recommended and approved by the Canadian-World bank
1994
Building started
1997
Yangtze river is dammed
2003
First electricity produced
2006
Dam completed but improvements and additions continued
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Cost
Estimates for the major parts of the dam ranges from $25-60
billion yuan
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Benefits
● Flood Control
● Navigation● Tourism● Clean power
Ship lock system at the Three Gorges Dam
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Relocation
● Estimates of number of people needing to be relocated ranged from around 1million at the early stages of the project to more than 6 million people at the later stages of the project
● Poor planning and local government corruption
● >14000 hectares of agricultural land submerged
● 100 archeological sites submerged
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Environmental Impacts
● Seismic activity
● Landslides● Sediment flow● Droughts● Fish and plant species
Changes in sediment transport at major monitoring stations from 2003 - 2007
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Cross-Border Water Management: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
By: Michelle Huang
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The Upstream of International Border
● Being able to pass some of the inherent cost of the dam to downstream neighboring countries
● The total capacity of dammed reservoirs nearly doubles and dam height increases by about 59 percent when an area is upstream of an international border.
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Potential Issue
● Biodiversity● Regional Conflicts
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Nile River
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Water Security in Nile Basin
Colonial-Era Treaties
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Water Security in Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)
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Size & Power
Height 155 m
Length
Power
1,780 m
6,450 MW
GERD Site C 3 Gorges
Height 60 m
Length
Power
1,050 m
1,100MW
Height 181 m
Length
Power
2,335 m
22,500MW
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GERD project vision
Ethiopia
● Regional energy exporter
● Potential customer: Sudan, Kenya
Sudan
● Power importation
● Prevent floods
● Increase water consumption & agricultural output
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Conflict
Egypt:
● Reduce water supply
● Affect Egypt Aswan Dam
● “We will defend each drop of Nile water with our blood if necessary” - Mohamed Morsi, the president of Egypt
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Critiques- Accountability
● Location: high temp. & low precipitation ● High hydropower dependency v.s. Increasing extreme
climate (decreased rainfall and higher frequency of droughts)
● “EEP has made efforts to step up generation mix nationwide to curb the challenge and continues construction of power projects from Hydro, Wind, Geothermal as well as solar.” - CEO of Ethiopian Electric Power
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Critiques - Capacity
● According to the rate of flow, the logical power output should be 2800 MW
● The EIA has not been completed yet (63 % of the project is finished)
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Critiques - Environment
● Degradation● Change of hydrological cycles (flooding, drought, &
mudslides) ● Water supply reduction -> seawater intrusion to the river
system (salinization) ● Threaten agriculture (soil fertility of the downstream),
fishing, and ecology
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Critiques - Finance
● A portion of citizens’ salaries is deducted annually without their consent (worker’s right violation)
● Manipulating citizen into purchasing bonds ● Grand Renaissance Dam Lottery with a $ 450,000● Change of livelihood ● Temporary, unskilled jobs
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Critiques - Equity
● Few citizens benefit from the project● 85% Ethiopians live in rural area, 2% of them have
access to electricity ● Involuntary resettlement (incl. Indigenous)
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World Commission on Dams (WCD)
By: Sophie Goodman
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Background on the WCD
● International commission established in 1998 ● Launched by the World Bank and IUCN ● Formed in response to mounting concerns on the impacts
of large dams● Established in Capetown, South Africa● Led to the creation of a final report - “Dams and
Development: A New Framework for Decision-Making”
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Mandate
❏ Review the development effectiveness of large
dams and assess alternatives for water resources
and energy development
❏ Develop internationally acceptable criteria,
guidelines and standards for the planning, design,
appraisal, construction, operation, monitoring and
decommissioning of dams
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Final ReportNovember 2000
Core Values:
❏ Equity❏ Efficiency❏ Participatory
Decision-Making❏ Sustainability❏ Accountability
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Final Report Findings● Failure to include affected peoples in
dam-planning processes globally
● Appraisal often found solely through
economic parameters
● Conflict increased as a result of social and
environmental impacts being neglected
● Recommends dam development be supported if aids in human welfare, or not supported if other options are more favourable
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Strategic Priorities for Decision-Making 1. Gain public acceptance - recognize rights and acknowledge associated risks
2. Conduct comprehensive assessment of alternatives -
assessment is ongoing and includes affected stakeholders
3. Manage existing dams - operations and assessment should be adaptable
4. Sustain rivers and livelihoods - protect and restore ecosystems at river
basin level
5. Recognize entitlements and shared benefits - recognize land
entitlements to improve qualities of life
6. Ensure compliance - have clear guidelines that stakeholders adhere to
7. Share rivers for peace, development, and security - water
management requires constructive global cooperation
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Five Key Decision Points
For Water and Energy Planning:
1. Dam development needs
assessment.
2. Analyze alternatives to
determine the preferred form
of development.
For when Dams are assessed and preferred:
3. Verify agreements before
construction begins.
4. Confirm compliance before
commissioning.
5. Adapt to changing contexts
once in operation.
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Critiques of WCD
❏ “Global Corporatism”- Seen as a strategy for
global norm formation - Representation issues:
who is included/excluded in the WCD process?
❏ Questioning the democratic process of the WCD
- Claims resting upon self-determined legitimacy
❏ Canadian response (UNEP)
- Critical of evaluation - Goals geared
towards ‘developed’ nations
- Suggested reviewing WCD database
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Current Status of the WCD
● The final report
signified the end of the
Commission
● After 2001 the WCD
formally dissolved
● Dam development is an
increasingly global
issue
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Questions to Think About
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● Would you still consider dams to be an environmentally friendly way to
generate energy?
● Do you see the WCD final report as a net positive or negative? Why?
● Do you consider the building of the dams of the three case studies justified?
Why or why not? If not, what are other alternatives that could be considered
for these areas instead.
● Can you think of examples where other infrastructures for energy have been
successfully implemented?
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● How can competing resource demands and cultural concerns be equitably
addressed without marginalizing any specific parts of the affected social
groups?
● Who should negotiate with indigenous peoples with respect to projects and
policies that affect them and to what extent should their interest receive
special considerations?
● LCOE takes into account equipment costs, installation, performance
(capacity factors), operation and maintenance, and weighted cost of capital.
Knowing this, do you think this is a good index to compare renewable costs?
Why or why not?
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Thank-you