Landscapes and Climate
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Transcript of Landscapes and Climate
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Landscapes and Climate
David S. BattistiUniversity of Washington
• The Annual Mean Precipitation• Storminess and Climate• Mountains -> Circulation -> Weather • Extreme Precipitation Events and Climate:
Can we know about them using climate models?
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Landscapes and Climate
• The Annual Mean Precipitation– Today: observed vs. simulated– Precipitation in warmer climates– Precipitation: controlled by large-scale circulation
or weather?
• Storminess and Climate• Mountains -> Circulation -> Weather • Extreme Precipitation Events and Climate:
Can we know about them using climate models?
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How well do Atmospheric General Circulation Models work?
Typical biases in Seasonal Average Temperature (AGCMs circa 2003)
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How well do Atmospheric General Circulation Models work?
Typical biases in Seasonal Averaged Precipitation (circa 2003)
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How well do Atmospheric General Circulation Models work?
Covey et al 2000
TemperatureSea Level PressurePrecipitation
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Projected Annual Average Precipitation due to increased CO2 (“2080-2099” minus “1980-1999”)
Scenario A1B
Stippling is where the multimodel average change exceeds the standard deviation of the models
Warmer climates should have less subtropical precipitation (20-35 latitude) and more tropical and high
latitude precipitation, for sound dynamical reasons.
Warmer Climates and Precipitation Patterns
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Large-scale Circulation vs. Storm Dynamics• Cases where the large-scale circulation/forcing (e.g.,
Himalaya orography; land-ocean temperature contrast) drives weather?
SE Asian Monsoon, Indonesian Monsoon, ITCZ … South-Central US Monsoon
• Cases where the large-scale circulation inextricably tied to the weather (and not directly to topography)?
– Europe winter precipitation (NAO <--> storminess)– Pacific Northwest winter precipitation
(midlatitude Pacific storm track re-birth; ENSO)
• Don’t know:– Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: are seasonal precip
changes due to changes in storm track dynamics or to changes in the frequency of lee cyclogenesis?
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Climate and Landscapes
• The Annual Mean Precipitation• Storm Tracks and Climate
– Modern day– Glacial times
• Mountains -> Circulation -> Weather • Extreme Precipitation Events and Climate:
Can we know about them using climate models?
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• Dogma says as the equator-to-pole temperature gradient (dT/dy) increases, so should storminess increase. There is more to the story.
• Counter examples abound (linked to mountains)• A modern day example: midwinter suppression of the Pacific storm track
… the Jet increases by ~20 m/s, … but storminess decreases by ~25% and the atmospheric heat transport goes down.
Going from November to January (increases dT/dy) and…
Yin and Battisti (2005), Li et al (2005)
Storminess and Climate
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Storminess and Climate
Another counter example: In the LGM, the meridional temperature gradient increased and storminess decreased compared to today
poleward heat flux 850mb (Km/s)
Modern
Amplitude of Storms(e.g., eddy heat transport)
250 hPa Zonal Wind (contour in 10 m/s, starting at 30)
Li and Battisti 2007
Contours are west-to-east (zonal) wind speedTemperature is colored
Atlantic Jet Cross Section
Height
20N 60N 20N 60N
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Landscapes and Climate
• The Annual Mean Precipitation• Storminess and Climate
• Mountains -> Circulation -> Weather– Major forcing of the global (NH) circulation by the:
• The Andes (Location of the Pacific ITCZ)
• The Rockies (Warm Europe vs. Cold NE US)
• Tibetan Plateau (SE Asian Monsoon)
– Mountains and storm tracks: seeding of midlatitude storms
• Extreme Precipitation Events and Climate: Can we know about them using climate models?
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Observed annual mean stateRainfall (colors), SST (contours) and surface streamlines
Subtropical anticyclones
Cool
ITCZ
SPCZ
Data: GPCP, NCEP OI SST, QSCAT
Why is the ITCZ in the northern hemisphere, and why is the SE Pacific cold?
Note: this asymmetry is fundamental to El Nino physics, and the global climate anomalies that caused by it.
1. The Andes and the Observed Annual Mean State in the Tropical Pacific
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Summary of main mechanisms
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There is only one ITCZ in the eastern-central Pacific and it is north of the equator …
Precipitation & SST
… because of the mechanical affect of the Andes on the atmosphere and the resulting thermodynamic feedbacks with the ocean.
Observed Climatology
Simulated Climatology: an atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab ocean. Only Andes orography is included; there is no land.
Takahashi and Battisti 2006
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2. The importance of mountains in wintertime
Mountains No Mountains
Winds, SLP and Eddy Temperature in January
Seager et al 2000
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The importance of mountains in wintertime
Change in surface air temperature due to mountains is about ~25% of the annual cycle in some places
(e.g., Northeast China would be ~ 8C warmer in winter w/o the Tibetan Plateau)
Seager et al 2000
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3. The Asian Winter MonsoonNovember - March
850 hPa Wind & Wind Speed Precipitation(cm/month)
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3. The Asian Winter Monsoon
• Case 1: No topography
– The result: two zonal bands of rainfall near the equator (ITCZs), Trade winds, subtropical Highs at 30˚ latitude, and midlatitude jets and storm tracts at about 35˚latitude.
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3. The Asian Winter Monsoon• Case 2:
– As in case 1, but add the Tibetan Plateau. Land temperature is fixed and adjusted at the surface lapse rate.
• Hence, there is no land heating in this experiment – Orography forces a stationary wave that cools the northeastern half of China by advection of cold
air from the northeast– Eg., cooling of Beijing of 8C– The Rockies have a similar affect on northeastern North America: cooling NE North America by
~9C & warming Europe by +3C (Seager et al 2000)
HJet
HH HH
LLLL
L Cold Air Advection
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3. The Asian Winter Monsoon
• Case 2: with Tibetan Plateau– Results: enhanced downstream jet stream & accompanying
circulation that • drives enhanced trades north of the equator, pushing the ITCZ
south of the equator through atmosphere-ocean feedbacks;• causes southerly winds in southern China, enhancing winter
rainfall (with local orographic amplification).
H
L
H
Jet
Trades
HH HH
LL LL
Surface Flow Upper Level Flow
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L
H
3. The Asian Winter Monsoon… is forced mechanically by orography
Precipitation & Surface Streamlines
mm/day
Takahashi & Battisti 2007
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3. The Asian Winter MonsoonNovember - March
850 hPa Wind & Wind Speed Precipitation(cm/month)
Convergence
… is forced mechanically by orography
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Mountains and the seeding of midlatitude storms
Mountains are a primary cause of the birth of storms in the midlatitudes
Frequency of cyclogenesis as diagnosed from 850mb vorticity field.
Gray areas are above 1500m
S. Penny, pers. comm. 2007
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Mountains and the seeding of midlatitude storms
Tracks of all storms that formed in the lee of mountains
…with upper level forcing: 935 … without upper level forcing: 696
Genesis Location
S. Penny, pers. comm. 2007
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Mountains (ice sheets) and the seeding of midlatitude storms
LGMModern
A. Donohoe 2007
Amplitude of disturbances seeding the Atlantic storm
track are weaker in the LGM
Contours are west-to-east (zonal) wind speedTemperature is colored
Atlantic Jet Cross Section
Height
20N 60N 20N 60N
Li and Battisti 2007
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Landscapes and Climate
• The Annual Mean Precipitation• Storminess and Climate• Mountains -> Circulation -> Weather • Extreme Precipitation Events and Climate:
Can we know about them using climate models?– Yes– Maybe
… but not yet.
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Extreme Precipitation Events and Climate: Can we know about them using climate models?
• Yes, when changes in extreme events are due to weather that is controlled by large-scale circulation
• Examples: SE Asian Monsoon, Indonesian Monsoon, The Pacific ITCZ, Hurricanes (likely intensity, not likely tracks),
• At present GCM resolution, complementary downscaling (empirical/numerical) models are useful/necessary to assess changes in extreme events.
• Maybe, where weather and large-scale circulation are inextricably linked
… but not yet. Efforts are ongoing, but it will take time.
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Landscapes and Climate
• The Annual Mean Precipitation• Storminess and Climate• Mountains -> Circulation -> Weather • Extreme Precipitation Events and Climate:
Can we know about them using climate models?
Mountains
Circulation
Weather?
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Observed annual mean state
Rainfall (mm/day)
and 925 mb streamlines
Subtropical anticyclones
ITCZSPCZ
Data: GPCP, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, NCEP OI SST.
Sea surface temperature (SST, °C)
Cool
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Andes and ML
Rainfall (mm/day, shaded)
SST (C, contours)
Mean sea level pressure (mb, shaded)
925 mb streamlines
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Andes, Himalayas and Rockies
Rainfall (mm/day, shaded)
SST (C, contours)
Mean sea level pressure (mb, shaded)
925 mb streamlines
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Double Andes (2)
Rainfall (mm/day, shaded)
SST (C, contours)
Mean sea level pressure (mb, shaded)
925 mb streamlines
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Thermocline tilt
Rainfall (mm/day, shaded)
SST (C, contours)
Mean sea level pressure (mb, shaded)
925 mb streamlines
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Thermocline tilt + Seasonality
Rainfall (mm/day, shaded)
SST (C, contours)
Mean sea level pressure (mb, shaded)
925 mb streamlines
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Storm Tracks and ClimateAnother counter example: storminess and eddy heat transport are reduced in the LGM compared to today
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The Indian Monsoon… is mainly thermally driven
Heating of continental India and SE Asia is key to the “Indian monsoon”
Pot. Temp. 850hPa Pot. Temp. 300hPa
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The Indian Monsoon… is mainly thermally driven
May PrecipitationMay Wind 1000hPa
mm/daym/sec
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The Indian Monsoon
June Precipitation
Precipitation, circulation and diabatic heating are grossly similar from month-to-month (once the Indian monsoon gets going) from June to September.
June Pot. Temp. 300hPa
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The Indian Monsoon
Land-Sea thermal contrast is the major driver. But is it the “hot Tibetan Plateau” or is it “the hot India/Southeast Asia plus the Himalaya wall”?
The atmosphere is heated south of the Tibetan Plateau
The observed column averaged diabatic heating (JJA)
Rodwell and Hoskins 2001
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The Indian MonsoonDoes the orography drive the low level flow that fuels
the monsoon heating?
Low level streamfunction in summer (JJA)
Mountains only
Mountains plus heating
The summer monsoon doesn’t seem to be driven by topography
Rodwell and Hoskins 2001
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The Indian Monsoon
• The onset of the Indian Monsoon appears to be driven by heating over India and SE Asia– Modeling (not shown) and observations suggest the
Indian monsoon is not driven by heating over the Tibetan Plateau
• The Himalaya and the orography of SE Asia are important for localizing the precipitation and diabatic heating– This geometry ensures a gross similarity in monthly
circulation, precipitation, etc during the monsoon season.
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The Asian Spring-Summer Monsoon
The jet transitions from south of the plateau in April to north in July. Until the transition takes place, the downstream flow will still favor low-level convergence over south-central China.
May
June
Apr
il
July
Zonal Wind Averaged 70-100E
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The Asian Spring-Summer MonsoonMay wind and wind speed climatology
850 hPa
The deep west-northwesterly flow into central China brings dry air that converges with moist air at lower levels arriving from the south.
500 hPa
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The Asian Spring-Summer Monsoon
Wind velocity/speed at 500 hPa Zonal wind (color) and specific humidity along 95-100E
Eq 50N
May
May
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The Asian Spring-Summer Monsoon
So, we expect the same (dynamically) driven monsoon but with more rainfall in spring/summer than in winter:
•Higher SST -> more evaporation -> more moisture convergence -> more precipitation
•More precipitation -> more land evaporation -> more precipitation (local feedback)
•More precipitation -> more convergence
Jan June
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The Meiyu Front: the summer Monsoon in south central China & Japan
Precipitation maximizes in central China in June/July -- when the dynamics can maintain the humidity front and moisture is streaming along the front from the WSW (Indian Ocean) at 700-500 hPa. Hence, there is strong sheer and low vertical stability.
Zhou et al 2004
Theta_e & moisture flux 700 hPa
H
Dynamically induced humidity Front (surface - 500mb)
Subtropical High
Vector wind and speed at 700 hPa
Moisture flux
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Demise of the Asian Summer Monsoon
•At the end of July, the jet transitions north of the Tibetan plateau, decreasing the stationary wave downstream and hence weakening the dynamical support for the moisture front and reducing the horizontal sheer.
•Hence, the monsoon declines - first in the south, then north central China - prior to the maximum land-sea temperature contrast.
July
Zonal Wind Averaged 70-100E
Jan Apr July Oct Dec
D
H
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Variability in the Indian Monsoon
• All months contribute to the variability in the net summer precipitation over India– June (onset month) has the least impact– September anomalies have the greatest impact– A suggestion of important land-atmosphere
feedbacks (memory) in Aug-Sept
• ENSO has a very week impact on the Indian monsoon (r ~ 0.3)
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Variability in the Asian Monsoon
• ENSO has a moderate impact on the Winter monsoon rainfall (Nov-April) in southeastern China (r ~ 0.6)
January - March
Correlation of Nino3.4 with precipitation
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• An unusually early poleward displacement of the jet in late spring - early summer brings earlier rains into east-central China
– Sometimes linked to unusually heavy precipitation in India (r ~0.4 in May-June at Hulu, which moves the jet poleward via a localized diabatic heating).
Variability in the Asian Monsoon
June India precip w/ U 70-100E June India precip w/ precip
• Otherwise, the interannual variability in the Asian monsoon is unrelated to that in the Indian monsoon (r ~ 0.1 monthly and seasonally)
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The modern day Indian and Asian monsoons & millennial scale variability
in the proxy records
• The Indian and Asian monsoons in the modern climate
• Implications for interpreting the proxy records
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Error depends on spatial and temporal scale and on the climate variable
Surface Air Temperature
Errors of surface air temperature (climatological annual cycle) simulated by CMIP2 model control runs. Shown are the total errors, the global and annual mean error (“bias”), the total r.m.s (“pattern”) error, and the following components of the climatological r.m.s. error:zonal and annual mean (“clim.zm.am”); annual mean deviations from the zonal mean (“clim.zm.am.dv”), seasonal cycle of the zonal mean (“clim.zm.sc”); and seasonal cycle of deviations from the zonal mean (“clim.zm.sc.dv”).
Precipitation
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The Andes and the South Pacific Anticyclone
Rodwell and Hoskins, 2001
-
-
-
+
+
++
Run with zonally symmetric SST: 850 mb winds (m/s) and omega (Pa/s)
Andes
And
es
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3. The Asian Winter Monsoon
Wind Direction (vector) and wind speed (color)
November - March
850 hPa (~1500m)
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Mountains and the seeding of midlatitude storms
Tracks of all storms that formed in the lee of mountains
Genesis Location
S. Penny, pers. comm. 2007