Landmarks for navigating the cliffs of e-fuel sustainability · The different shades of green (grey...

LBST.de7 Nov’2019 · E-Fuels Conference · Munich Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH

ludwig bölkow

systemtechnik

The European E-Fuels Conference · Munich · 7 November 2019

Landmarks for navigating the cliffs of e-fuel sustainability

Patrick R Schmidt

LBST · Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH

Munich · Germany

2019-11-07 · FINAL


ludwig bölkow

systemtechnik

LBST · Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH

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▪ Independent expert for sustainable energy and mobility for over 30 years

▪ Bridging technology, markets, and policy

▪ Renewable energies, fuels, infrastructure

▪ Technology-based strategy consulting, System and technology studies, Sustainability assessment

▪ Global and long term perspective

▪ Rigorous system approach – thinking outside the box

▪ Serving international clients in industry, finance, politics, and NGOs

Recent projects:

▪ CertifHy – H2 Guarantees of Origin

▪ VDA E-Fuels

▪ UBA PtL for Aviation

▪ BMVI Integrated Energy and Climate Concept


ludwig bölkow

systemtechnik

Abstract

1. There are 3 key sustainability determinants of e-fuels

2. Renewable electricity and ways to prove it

3. The different shades of green (grey and black) of CO2 point sources

4. Water use in a vulnerable world

5. Summary – E-fuels‘ sustainability performance can be outstanding, but needs to be safeguarded

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systemtechnik

Key sustainability determinants of e-fuels

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systemtechnik

Project-attributable

Electricity

CO2

Water

Regional (social) politics

Land

Socio-economics

Sustainability determinants of (synthesised) e-fuels, e.g. PtL

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Image: LBST & BHL, Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; UBA (ed.), 2016


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systemtechnik

Electricity

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systemtechnik

GHG emissions well-to-tank (gCO2eq/MJ, incl. combustion)

E-fuels can offer near net-zero GHG emissions when using electricity and CO2 from renewable sources

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Table: LBST & BHL, Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; UBA (ed.), 2016

Perspective:~ 100 %

Short-term:> 70 %


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systemtechnik

Sustainability of electricity supply

▪ Renewability

– Energy source is subject to regional availability

– Most abundant at global scale: wind, solar

▪ Additionality

– Additional renewable power plants should not only be considered for e-fuels, but for any new electricity consumers (energy transition against a rising tide)

– Point taken, but how can this be granted anyway?• PtX ventures embedded in regional energy roadmaps?

• Power purchase agreement (PPA), Guarantees of Origin (GO)?

• Use of electricity that would otherwise not be used(grid congestion, lack of demand, remote potentials, EEG plants going offline)?

• Grid connection direct connection / off-grid

▪ Suitability

– Provision of electricity system services(control power, voltage support, black-start support) 8


ludwig bölkow

systemtechnik▪ RED II as per 12/2018 stipulates renewable electricity requirements

▪ Details to be laid out in RED II delegated acts (to be developedin the course of 2020)

Electricity supply cases

1) Grid mix

2) Direct connection

3) 100% RES-E from grid

RED II requirements

a) Renewable electricity

b) No double counting

c) Temporal & geographical correlation

d) Additionality

1 2 3

aMethodology option 1, 2, …, n

… …

b… … …

c… … …

d… … …

RED II on electricity use eligible for e-fuels

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systemtechnik

CertifHy – EU-wide green H2 guarantee of origin scheme

▪ Observers: DG ENER, DG MOVE, DG CLIMA

www.CertifHy.eu 10

Shaded intentionally to respect copyrights.Feel free to contact the presenter for further information.

http://www.certifhy.eu/


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systemtechnik

CO2

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systemtechnik

CO2 supply | Concentrated sources & sustainability

Not all CO2 sources are equally sustainable:

▪ Sustainability safeguards are necessary to avoid unintended collateral damages, such as the lock-in of fossil technologies.

▪ A robust sustainability framework is furthermore important to give stakeholders the confidence for building value chains (bankability), e.g. regarding CO2 burden sharing (no leakage into unregulated sectors).

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CO2 sources Environm. sustainability Alternative CO2 uses Towards carbon-neutrality

Extraction from air Subject to electricity source

Biogas upgrading Subject to feedstock & process Other biomass uses

Solid biomass fired heat (and power) plants

Subject to feedstock & process Bio-CCS Other biomass uses

Fermentation to alcohols Subject to feedstock & process Beverage industry Other biomass uses

Geothermal sources Subject to geo-phys. CO2 cycle CO2 re-injection (closed-loop) Hot dry rock a potential no-go

Cement production What level is ‘unavoidable’? Power-to-chemicals Shift to alternative materials

Steel production Short-term exemptions? Top-gas for heating&reduction Shift to direct reduction w/ H2

Fossil fuel firing Short-term exemptions? CCS Phase-out, technology lock-in LBS

T, 2

017

-04-

07

Table: LBST derived from LBST & dena, E-Fuels Study, 11/2017


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systemtechnik

Water

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systemtechnik

Water demand

Net water demand of energy crops is subject to local conditions and yield expectations.

The water footprint of PtL fuel is by a factor of 400 to 15,000 lower than biofuels.

Bulk PtX plants are still significant local consumers (seawater treatment, water cycling).14



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Land

▪ Type

▪ Yield

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Hybrid renewable power generation

▪ Equivalent full load hours of PV-wind-hybrid plants (2030)

▪ Top-runner sites worldwide: > 6000 heq/yr

Note: The numbers in squares refer to cases assessed in primary literature.Image: Fasihi et al., Renewable energy based synthetic fuels for a net zero emissions world, Lappeenranta, 29-30 August 2016

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Land demand

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systemtechnik

Summary

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systemtechnik

3 key environmental safeguards for synthesised e-fuels, e.g. PtL

1. Additional renewable power plants (to avoid sector carbon leakage)

2. Renewable CO2 sources (to avoid lock-in risk with fossils)

3. Sea water desalination (in regions prone to water supply stress)

Regulatory may allow for a host of options => Business case analysis! 19


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Questions?

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Patrick SchmidtSenior Project Manager · Partner

LBST · Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr. 15 · D-85521 Munich/Ottobrunn

T: +49 (0)89 6081100E: [email protected]: http://www.lbst.de


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systemtechnik

Reference | E-Fuels Study

P. Schmidt, W. Weindorf, W. Zittel, T. Raksha, J. Zerhusen (LBST), S. Siegemund, M. Trommler, O. Kolb, V. Zinnecker (dena)

«E-Fuels» Study – The potential of electricity-based fuels for low emission transport in the EU

Commissioned by Verband der Automobilindustrie e.V. (VDA), November 2017

▪ Transport energy scenarios comprising renewable electricity, BtX and PtX fuels

▪ Energy efforts, fuel demand, renewable power needs

▪ Fuel costs, cumulated investments

▪ Cost sensitivity analysis: PtCH4 and PtL imports

=> http://www.lbst.de/ressources/docs2017/E-Fuels%20Study_VDA_11-17.pdf21


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Reference | PtL for Aviation

▪ Commissioned by German Environment Agency (UBA)

▪ Joint expertise of LBST and Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.

▪ Topics:

– Technology readiness and development potentials

– Techno-economics

– Environmental performance (efficiency, greenhouse gases, land and water demand)

▪ Publications: flyer, background paper, presentation

▪ Link:

– http://bit.ly/2cowOyf – https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/power-to-liquids-potentials-perspectives-for-the

▪ Recommended citation:Schmidt, P.; Weindorf, W. (Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH – LBST); Roth, A.; Batteiger, V.; Riegel, F. (Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.): Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; German Environment Agency (ed.), Background // September 2016, ISSN: 2363-829X 22

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Sponsor:

Bauhaus

Luftfahrt

Landmarks for navigating the cliffs of e-fuel sustainability · The different shades of green (grey...

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