Land Use Trade-offs between Fuel, Food and Ecosystem Services in Florida

Michal Fidler1, John C. Capece1, Edward A. Hanlon2 and Kamal Alsharif3

1 Intelligentsia International, Inc., LaBelle, FL 2 University of Florida - IFAS, Southwest Florida Research and Education Center, Immokalee, FL 3 Department of Geography, Environment, and Planning, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL

Federal Agency & Organization: Department of Energy – Office of the Biomass Program

Project Title: Hendry County Sustainable Biofuels Center

Award Number: EE0000303

Recipient Organization: Hendry County, Florida

Objectives of the study

Document land use implications of biomass production to demonstrate the overall resources implications associated with bioethanol production for Florida’s transportation sector needs.

Outline of the Presentation

Biofuels – rationale, categorization, production (biomass,

bioethanol), advantages and challenges

Land use changes – overview, relationships, land availability

Florida case study

Bioethanol production

Bioethanol needs (transportation sector)

Bioethanol land requirements

Bioethanol trade-offs

Conclusions

Why biofuels? Rationale for using BF:

Limited fossil fuels

Energy security issues (oil’s dependency)

Increasing industrialization

GHG mitigation

Waste utilization

Help to ag industry

Carbon sequestration

Potential for being sustainable among the “alternate energy” sources

Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA)

Biofuels categorization

Primary:

unprocessed biomass

Secondary:

processed biomass

G1 - food crops (corn, soybeans), sugars and oils biomass

G2 - non-food crops and lignocellulosic wastes (energycane, eucalyptus), lignocellulosic biomass

G3 - micro- and macro-algae (Sargassum/Seaweed, Euglena), algal biomass

Secondary BF - 3 generations:

Bioethanol

• Most important biofuel

• Colorless liquid

• Replacement for fossil gas, blended at rates 10-85% (E10 – E85)

• Improves combustion

• Lowers emissions of CO

Advantages and challenges of BF

• Categories – social, economic, ecologic, technical

• “Overlap” – complexity of the issues, they are never separate

• Weight the issues properly – an improvement on issue A can be less important than a deterioration on issue B

Land use changes (LUC) Land Use Change (LUC) is a term covering two distinct (direct, indirect) means by which land can be altered in the pursuit (in this specific case) of biofuels production.

Direct LUC (dLUC) occurs when land previously used for other purposes is converted to biofuel crops production.

Indirect LUC (iLUC) refers to the changes in land use that take place elsewhere as a consequence of a bioenergy project.

Effects: iLUC > dLUC

Effects still learned about

Land use changes in FL - overview Until the end of 19th century: more or less natural state

Beginning of the 20th century till today: extensive residential, commercial and ag. development

1936 – 1995:

Increase: Population: 829%, Cropland, pastures: 59%, Urban land: 628%

Decrease: Forest land: -22%, Marsh land: -51%

Source: Marshall, 2004.

Land use changes in FL - consequences • Large farms driven only by profit

• Loss of biological diversity

• Land development regulations political battles

• Regional & Global climate changes

• Land management

• Water management

Land use availability

Globally Florida

Population 7.1 B 19 M

ALL land 148,940k km² 170k km²

AG land/person 1.71 ac/p 0.43 ac/p ARABLE land/person 0.52 ac/p 0.16 ac/p

PASTURES land/person 1.19 ac/p 0.27 ac/p

Land is a VERY limited resource

References:

FAOSTAT, 2011; Florida Department of Transportation, 2012; United States Department of Agriculture, 2007.

Why BF in Florida? Favorable subtropical to tropical climate

Abundant, though limited water resources

Advanced research

Traditional leading ag. role

Minor oil reserves, no refineries

Increasing energy demands

Bioethanol production – FL case

• 500k+ acres used for potential BF crops • Currently no large scale bioethanol facilities • Cellulosic bioethanol (G2) a possible way forward?

Hendry County Sustainable Biofuels Research Center • Analytical Tools Development • Life Cycle Analysis • Cost-Benefit Analysis • Sustainable Farming Systems • Ecosystem Services Compensation • Economic Development • Youth Development

FL BF production - crops

8 various bioethanol crops considered:

Miscanthus

Switchgrass

Sweet Sorghum

Corn

Elephantgrass

Sugarcane

Energycane

Eucalyptus

FL BF crops – biomass yields (ton/ac)

Medium yield

(ton/ac)

Miscanthus 6.0

Switchgrass 3.6

Sorghum 11.5

Corn 4.2

Elephantgrass 14.4

Sugarcane 7.4

Energycane 22.5 Eucalyptus 13.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

References: Erickson, 2012; Newman, 2011; Rahmani, 2009; Woodard, 2012; Rainbolt, 2010; Hinchee, 2011; Stricker, 2000.

FL BF crops – bioethanol yields (gal/ac)

Medium yield

(gal/ac)

Miscanthus 300

Switchgrass 288

Sorghum 310

Corn 405

Elephantgrass N/A

Sugarcane 683

Energycane 1125 Eucalyptus 1109

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

References: Rainbolt, 2010; Helsel, 2011; Rahmani, 2009; Vermerris, 2011; Woodard, 2012; Shapouri, 2006; Gonzalez, 2011.

FL transportation - bioethanol needs

𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝐿 = 191,854,954,745 miles

14,372,807 vehicles= 𝟏𝟑, 𝟑𝟒𝟖

𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐬

𝐯𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞

𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙 (𝐸10) 𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝐿 = 191,854,954,745 miles

8,152,702,000 gal E10= 𝟐𝟑. 𝟓

𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐬

𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝑬𝟏𝟎

𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝐸10 𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝐿 = 13,348

𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑣𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒 / 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

23.5𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑠

𝑔𝑎𝑙 𝐸10

= 𝟓𝟔𝟕 𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝑬𝟏𝟎

𝐯𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞 / 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫

Reference: Florida Department of Transportation, 2012.

FL - bioethanol needs (cont.)

𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝐸100 𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝐿 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑣𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒 = 567 𝑔𝑎𝑙 𝐸10

𝑣ℎ𝑙 / 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟+ 31% ∗ 567

𝑔𝑎𝑙 𝐸10

𝑣ℎ𝑙 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

= 𝟕𝟒𝟑 𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐭

𝐯𝐡𝐥 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑣𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝐿 =14,372,807 𝑣ℎ𝑙

18,905,048 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒= 𝟎. 𝟕𝟔

𝐯𝐡𝐥

𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧

𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝐸100 𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝐿 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛 = 743 𝑔𝑎𝑙 𝐸100

𝑣ℎ𝑙 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟∗ 0.76

𝑣ℎ𝑙

𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛

= 𝟓𝟔𝟓 𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝟏𝟎𝟎

𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫

Reference: Florida Department of Transportation, 2012.

FL – bioethanol needs (gal/person/year)

Fossil fuel Ethanol Total fuel

E0 416.4 0.0 416.4

E10 388.1 43.1 431.2

E15 372.9 65.8 438.7

E20 356.9 89.2 446.1

E85 81.4 461.4 542.8

E100 0.0 565.1 565.1

Absolute numbers for all Floridians:

E10 – 815 M gal of ethanol/year E100 – 10.7 B gal of ethanol/year

FL - bioethanol land requirements

𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝐸100 𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝐿 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛 = 𝟓𝟔𝟓𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝟏𝟎𝟎

𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫

𝐸𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑜𝑙 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝐿 = 𝒙 𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐭

𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫

𝐸100, 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑆𝑢𝑔𝑎𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑒 =565 𝑔𝑎𝑙 𝐸100

𝑦𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟

683 𝑔𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑡𝑎𝑐𝑟𝑒 𝑦𝑟

= 𝟎. 𝟖𝟑𝒂𝒄𝒓𝒆

𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒐𝒏

Land use requirements (ac/person) for E100

Medium yield

(ac/person)

Miscanthus 1.88

Switchgrass 1.96

Sorghum 1.82

Corn 1.40

Elephantgrass N/A

Sugarcane 0.83

Energycane 0.50 Eucalyptus 0.51

Availability: 0.43 ac ag. land/person, 0.16 ac arable land/person

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Ag land (% use) - land use trade-offs for BF

E10 10% of Eth

from FL

E10 20% of Eth

from FL

E10 25% of Eth

from FL

E10 100% of Eth

from FL

Miscanthus 3% 7% 8% 34%

Switchgrass 4% 7% 9% 35%

Sorghum 3% 7% 8% 33%

Corn 2% 5% 6% 25%

Elephantgrass N/A N/A N/A N/A

Sugarcane 1% 3% 4% 15%

Energycane 1% 2% 2% 9%

Eucalyptus 1% 2% 2% 9%

Ag land (% use) - land use trade-offs for BF

E10 E15 E20 E85

Miscanthus 34% 51% 70% 361%

Switchgrass 35% 54% 73% 376%

Sorghum 33% 50% 68% 349%

Corn 25% 38% 52% 267%

Elephantgrass N/A N/A N/A N/A

Sugarcane 15% 23% 31% 159%

Energycane 9% 14% 19% 96%

Eucalyptus 9% 14% 19% 98%

FL Ag Land

Switchgrass Miscanthus

Sorghum

Corn

Sugarcane

Eucalyptus

Energycane

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

FL FarmlandSwitchgrassMiscanthusSorghumCornSugarcaneEucalyptusEnergycane

Bioethanol in Florida Vehicular Fuels

Florida Ag Land Demand for E15 to E85 Fl

ori

da

Ag

Lan

d R

eq

uir

em

en

t

Conclusions

• Land use requirement for production of all ethanol in E85 in Florida is roughly the same as the total available Ag land in Florida for the best yielding biofuels crops (energycane, eucalyptus).

• Vehicular energy is only 33% of Floridians energy consumption - so even if we give up ALL our ag land for biofuels, we still produce only 33% of FL total energy needs.

Conclusions • Bioethanol (primarily cellulosic) produced in

Florida has a potential to meet a significant portion of the State’s transportation needs.

• Various issues need to be addressed: technology and infrastructure negative effects on biodiversity cost of water climate changes land use changes trade-offs for limited available land

Conclusions

• Globally, a one-for-one trade off is estimated between fuel, food, and ecosystems services.

• Assuming no change in food production and consumption habits in Florida, the likely result of biofuels sector expansion would be the conversion of natural lands or low-intensity agricultural lands into high-intensity biomass production.

FL Ag Land

Switchgrass Miscanthus

Sorghum

Corn

Sugarcane

Eucalyptus

Energycane

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

FL FarmlandSwitchgrassMiscanthusSorghumCornSugarcaneEucalyptusEnergycane

Bioethanol in Florida Vehicular Fuels

Florida Ag Land Demand for E15 to E85 Fl

ori

da

Ag

Lan

d R

eq

uir

em

en

t

References • Marshall, C. H., Pielke, R. A., Steyaert, L. T., & Willard, D. A. (2004). The Impact of Anthropogenic

Land-Cover Change on the Florida Peninsula Sea Breezes and Warm Season Sensible Weather. Monthly Weather Review, 132(1), 28–52.

• Erickson, J., Rainbolt, C., Newman, Y., Sollenberger, L., & Helsel, Z. (2012). Production of Miscanthus x giganteus for Biofuel 1. IFAS, (SS-AGR-292).

• Newman, Y., Williams, M. J., Helsel, Z. R., & Vendramini, J. (2011). Production of Biofuel Crops in Florida : Switchgrass. Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS), Soil and Water Science Department, University of Florida, (SS AGR 291), 1–4.

• Rahmani, M., & Hodges, A. (2009). Potential Feedstock Sources for Ethanol Production in Florida. Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS), Soil and Water Science Department, University of Florida, (FE650), 1–9.

• Woodard, K. R., & Sollenberger, L. E. (2012). Production of Biofuel Crops in Florida: Elephantgrass. Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS), Soil and Water Science Department, University of Florida, (SS-AGR-297), 1–3.

• Rainbolt, C. (2010). Production of Biofuel Crops in Florida: Sugarcane/Energycane. Crops, (SS AGR 298), 2–5.

• Hinchee, M., Rottmann, W., & Mullinax, L. (2011). Short-rotation woody crops for bioenergy and biofuels applications. Biofuels, 45(6), 619–629.

• Stricker, James A., Rockwood, D. L., Segrest, S. A., Alker, G. R., Prine, G. M., & Carter, D. R. (2000). Short rotation woody crops for Florida. 3rd Biennial Short Rotation Woody Crops Operations Working Group Conference (pp. 36087–36096). New York.

• Helsel, Z. R., & Álvarez, J. (2011). Economic Potential of Switchgrass as a Biofuel Crop in Florida. Managing, (FE900), 1–7.

References (cont.) • Vermerris, W., Erickson, J., Wright, D., Newman, Y., & Rainbolt, C. (2011). Production of Biofuel

Crops in Florida : Sweet Sorghum. Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS), Soil and Water Science Department, University of Florida, (SS-AGR-293), 1–3.

• Shapouri, H., & Michael E. Salassi. (2006). The economic feasibility of ethanol production from sugar in the United States (pp. 1–78). Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

• Gonzalez R., Treasure T., Phillips R., Jameel H., Saloni D., Abt R., Wright, J. (2011). Converting Eucalyptus biomass into ethanol: Financial and sensitivity analysis in a co-current dilute acid process. Part II. Biomass and Bioenergy 2011;35(2):767-772.

• FAOSTAT. (2011). The Statistics Division of the FAO. • Florida Department of Transportation. (2012). Florida Population Estimate. Florida Statistical

Abstract. • United States Department of Agriculture. (2007). National Agricultural Statistics Service. • Florida Department of Transportation. (2012). Florida Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled on Public

Roads. Florida Highway Data Source Book. • Florida Department of Transportation. (2012). Total Florida Registered Vehicles. Florida Highway

Data Source Book. • Florida Department of Transportation. (2012). Florida Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled on Public

Roads. Florida Highway Data Source Book. • Florida Department of Transportation. (2012). Florida Monthly Reported Gasoline Sales. Highway

Statistics Series. • Florida Department of Transportation. (2012). Florida Population Estimate. Florida Statistical

Abstract.