Land of the Spooky Tooky Owl

Project by:

Colin Curwen-McAdams

Kyle Avery

Spencer Johnson

Stephanie Ostrander

Who Says What?• What is the growth rate of the Spooky

Tooky Owls?

• When will the Owls meet their demise?

University Biology Students

• Annual Growth Rate: 97.6%

• Time before population crash: 356.5 years

The Government

• Growth Rate: 86.8%

• Crashes after: 66.4 years

The Sierra Club

• Growth Rate: 65.4%

• Crash after: 22.1 years

What affects Lambda the most?

• Changing the Adult Survival Probability

• Least Sensitive Factors:– Age at which start breeding– Female Fecundity Rates

Momma Owl

Maximum Reproduction Age(or, the previous LHS over the result of one minus the result of the result of s divided by lambda to the power of MRA minus alpha plus 1.)

• A new factor: “W”• What happens to growth

rates and extinction dates?

Republicans = 10

Democrats = 15

Republicans

Without W W = 10

• University Biologists– Growth Rate = 0.976– Pop. Crash = 356

• Gov’t– Growth Rate = 0.868– Pop. Crash = 66

• Sierra Club– Growth rate = 0.654– Pop. Crash = 22

• University Biologists– G. R. < 0.9500001– Pop. Crash < 183

• Gov’t– G. R. < 0.8500001– Pop. Crash < 57

• Sierra Club– G. R. < 0.6500001– Pop. Crash < 21

Democrats

Without W W = 15

• University Biologists– G. R. = 0.976– Pop. Crash = 356

• Gov’t– G. R. = 0.868– Pop. Crash = 66

• Sierra Club– G. R. = 0.654– Pop. Crash = 22

• University Biologists– G. R. < 0.9500001– Pop. Crash < 183

• Gov’t– G. R. < 0.8500001– Pop. Crash < 57

• Sierra Club– G. R. < 0.6500001– Pop. Crash < 21

What? Both parties are wrong?

• LHS made up of three terms

• Two terms are exponential

• W always greater than alpha

• If w – a is small, two terms begin to cancel and

• Nonsense!

Sparky’s Legacy

Without W W = 60

• University Biologists– G. R. = 0.976– Pop. Crash = 356

• Gov’t– G. R. = 0.868– Pop. Crash = 66

• Sierra Club– G. R. = 0.654– Pop. Crash = 22

• University Biologists– G. R. = 0.96683– Pop. Crash = 278

• Gov’t– G. R. = 0.85725– Pop. Crash = 60

• Sierra Club– G. R. < 0.6500001– Pop. Crash < 21

Equilibrium Occupancy

How many Starbucks can we build?

Hate Triangle?

VS.The Government

The Sierra Club

U of O Scientists

H : Habitable Area

=

=

Habitable50%

Not habitable50%

Habitable25%

Not habitable75%

Habitable38%

Not habitable

62%

P : Observed Equilibrium Occupancy

Inhabited40%

Uninhabited60%

Inhabited70%

uninhabited30%

Inhabited20%

uninhabited80%

=

=

University of Oregon Scientists

• k = 0.772 ± .0589• p = 64.92%

when h=65%

• ho= 38%

• hcritical = 22.8%

31.64% - 10% chance

(1.5σ)• 7% more to develop

The Government

• k = 0.85 ± .0725• p = 76.92%

when h=65%

• ho= 50%

• hcritical = 15%

25.88% - 10% chance

(1.5σ)• 24% more to develop

The Sierra Club

• k = 0.8 ± .0316• p = 69.23%

when h=65%

• ho= 25%

• hcritical = 20%

24.74% - 10% chance

(1.5σ)• <1% more to develop

Progress

building stuff, selling shit, killing things

Stage 1

Stage 2

• Jobs and stuff

• Good, manly work

• Trees to build stuff for stage 5

Stage 3

• Landscape not all cluttered up with trees

Stage 4

+

Decisions made regardless of science

Stage 5

Create more useful habitat

Stage 6

• What about the Spooky Tooky?

• Why doesn’t this smug bastard get a job?

Stage 7

Okay, what just happened?

• Wide variability of studies makes it impossible to make an informed decision

• Errors surrounding k value make it hard to know how much can be developed

• Cash rules everything around us

What do we do?

• Following the Sierra Club study doesn’t allow for development

• University Study allows for 7%, so we can fit some suburbs

• Government study allows for 24% - which may lead to the extinction of the Spooky Tooky, but allows for the proliferation of a very different species

Stage 8

Fair Trade