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Modelling future land use changes in Europe

The MOLAND urban and regional development model

Laura O. Petrov, Carlo Lavalle, Carla Rocha GomesEuropean CommissionJoint Research Centre

Ispra,Italy

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General remarks:

The MOLAND model have been developed by EC-Joint Research Centre, Ispra.

Its first version was launched in 1998 (part of Murbandy project). Today the last version of the model is recognised as the MOLAND model.

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Goals of the work:

- To simulate urban growth (and sprawl) based on policy and zoning regulations

- To monitor urban sustainability in cities and regions for supporting integrated spatial planning

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Content

What is the MOLAND model?

How the model works?

Type of questions that can answer?

Study case: Leipzig area, Germany

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Model overview’s:

How does it work?

Cellular Automata-

basedmodel

Cellular Automata-

basedmodel

Neighborhood & transition rules

Suitability

Accessibility

Zoning status

Simulated Land Use, year 2025

Land use (t+1)

• Population• Income• Production• Employment

• Population• Income• Production• Employment

Socio-economic data

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Neighborhood effect: - A circular neighbourhood consisting of 196 cells is applied

(radius eight pixels)- The effect in the central cell is calculated in a distance-

decay way

1 cell = 100 x 100 m

Cellular Automata-

basedmodel

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Setting up the model for Leipzig area, Germany

Calibration period: 1990-2000

Data sets Historical date Reference data

Leipzig area 1990 2000

Future simulation period: 2000-2025

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2000 real

2000sim.

Urban development in Leipzig area (detailed)

Urban area

Agricultural areaForestsGreen urban area

Construction sites

Legend

Industrial and commercials

Water bodies

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Urban development in Leipzig area (detailed)

Urban area

Agricultural areaForestsGreen urban area

Construction sites

Legend

1990

Industrial and commercials

Water bodies

2025

Industry

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Leipzig region (1990-2025)

Fuzzy Kappa

- Continuous urban fabric:0.99

- Discontinuous urban fabric:0.97

- Industrial and commercial:0.87

- Construction sites:0.46

- Port areas:1

New development

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Source: Joe Ravetz

Scenarios:- Focus on qualitative pictures- Quantitative and qualitative pictures- More emphasis on global trends- Focus on uncertainty- Results determined by future imagines- From future to present- Creative thinking- Open future-Plausible reasoning- From complex to simple- From qualitative to quantitative- Expert information useful- Analysis of new policies/instruments

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1. Based on general contextual understanding

Land use scenario storylines for the Leipzig 2000 - 2025

2. Statistic data such as population size, economic growth, un/employment, existing land use patterns

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Scenarios storylines matrix:‘Business-as-usual’ scenarioPopulation (fertility, mortality, in-migration, out-migration, peri-urban/rural growth)

Leipzig is characterized by steady decrease due to out-migration of the young, particularly woman; low rate fertility and ageing of population demography.

Economic trends GDP is slowly increasing. Moderate economic growth due to industrial activity and transport logistics (DHL, Amazon, UPS, Quelle distribution centre). Slow increase in manufacturing. Banks stable at a low level. Agriculture plays a minor role.

Urbanization/ Spatial planning

Increase of infrastructure construction (e.g. demolished houses replaced by partly housing and partly recreation/sports; however construction sites increase (new residential development inside of the city – increase the density).

Transport New investment in transport (e.g. link to motorway Chemnitz; fast railways to Munich, Berlin and Erfurt (ICE)).

‘Shock’ storylines and overall trends (politic, financial, etc)

Economic low increase. Low environmental protection. After 2013 Eastern Germany is no longer prior target area for EU structural funds and German Solidarity Fund stops 2017.

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Scenarios storylines matrix:‘Hyper-tech’ scenarioPopulation (fertility, mortality, in-migration, out-migration, peri-urban/rural growth)

Leipzig is characterized by rapid increase of young population and increase of fertility rates.

Economic trends GDP is characterized by rapid growth. Invest more in: high-tech sectors (electronics, computers, pharmaceutical).Tourism is encouraged by a larger supply and diversification of offers. Also the service sector is reinforced, providing more employment. New policy to invest in education such as more research institutes.

Urbanization/ Spatial planning

Polycentric urbanization: new residential developments are encouraged between Leipzig – Halle axis and other towns.

Transport New transport investment (e.g. improvement of national roads and better links to the motorways; airport extensions).

‘Shock’ storylines and overall trends (politic, financial, etc)

Rapid technology advance – Economic growth. Passive management leading to peri-urbanization and ‘urbanization’ of rural area. Economic crisis.

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Scenarios storylines matrix:‘Peak oil’ scenarioPopulation (fertility, mortality, in-migration, out-migration, peri-urban/rural growth)

Leipzig is characterized by increase of population due to in-migration of the young.

Economic trends GDP is increasing. The industrial activity is reinforced. New investment in manufacturing, tourism and services. More employment in science.

Urbanization/ Spatial planning

New residential development inside of the city – increase the density by multi-stories buildings. Existing old buildings are preserved or demolished leading to perforation. Services close to industry.

Transport Low transport investment due to high fuel costs and environmental concerns.

‘Shock’ storylines and overall trends (politic, financial, etc)

Peak oil - Economic increase. Moderate environmental intervention. High energy prices affect transport costs limiting commuting distance.

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How narrative storylines are translated in the model/into quantitative scenarios

Drivers

Simulated parameters

Residential

high lowServices Industry Commerce

Population

GDP

Productivity

Constructions

Transport

X

X X X

XXX

X X XX

X X

X

XX

XXX

XXX

XXXX

XX

Degree of urbanization

Tourism (hotels, real estate, other business)

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‘Business as usual' scenario

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‘Hyper-tech’ scenario

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‘Peak oil’ scenario

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Land use changes per category

Business-as-usual (%)

Hyper-tech (%)

Peak oil (%)

Continuous residential

0 11.2 17.4

Discontinuous residential

10.8 13.4 4.6

Industrial& Commercial

66.6 97.9 68.9

Construction sites

195.2 195.2 208.4

Scenarios land use changes:

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Demand for different urban land uses & accessibility are key elements responsible for urban development;

Urban simulations offer a useful approach of understanding the effects of urban and regional planning policies.

MOLAND model has the potential to impact directly on policy formulation by testing alternative strategies and exploring the development consequence of these alternative.

Conclusions:

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