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Transcript of Labour Force Feb 2013 quarterly detail.pdf
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7/29/2019 Labour Force Feb 2013 quarterly detail.pdf
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25 MARCH 2013
CONTRIBUTORS
Justin Fabo
Head of AustralianEconomics, Corporate &
Commercial
+61 2 9227 [email protected]
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS
ANZ RESEARCH
MINING AND RELATED EMPLOYMENT STABILISES, WHILE CONSTRUCTIONJOBS STRENGTHEN FURTHER; REDUNDANCIES DECLINE
The ABS released its quarterly detailed labour force statistics for the three months to
February late last week. Aggregate employment is estimated to have increased
by around 190,000 persons (or 1.7%) over the year to February. This
includes, however, a large 70,000 increase in employment in the month of February
2013, of which nearly half was due to sample rotation according to the ABS. For this
reason, some caution needs to be used when interpreting changes in
employment at the industry level over the three months to February and
over the year.
The key points of the detailed labour force release are below and are summarised in
Figures 1 and 2:
the number of involuntary job losers declined over the three months toFebruary after increasing significantly last year due to higher redundancies;
mining employment rose modestly over the three months to February, withgains in WA and Queensland offset by further weakness in coal mining
employment in NSW;
wholesale trade employment 4% of the total is estimated to haverisen by a sharp 40,000 persons over the three months to February and
by 65,000 persons, or 16%, over the year. Some of this strength is likely tobe statistical noise. Nevertheless, strong jobs growth over the year in motor
vehicle wholesaling and grocery, liquor & tobacco wholesaling appears consistent
with heightened activity in these sectors. A large share of the increase was in
NSW. Transport employment largely road transport also rose strongly
over the year to February, presumably related to strength in wholesale activity
but also mining-related activity;
growth in hospitality employment was also robust over the three months toFebruary and over the year. This appears to have been largely concentrated in
NSW and mostly in food & beverage services but is at odds with weak output
growth in this industry;
construction employment rose for the second consecutive quarter, broadlyin line with a modest pick-up in construction output;
public administration employment rose over the most recent three monthsand in a relatively broad-based fashion across states after significant prior
weakness. This seems at odds with the tight rein on government spending at the
federal and state levels. Health and education employment also continued to trend
strongly higher;
manufacturing employment fell sharply over the three months toFebruary, with weakness broadly based across states. This followed some
resilience in 2012 but over the past three years manufacturing employment has
been the weakest of all industries (Figure 3); and
business services employment declined modestly over the most recent threemonths and over the year. Presumably this partly reflects cost-cutting across arange of businesses.
The Appendix shows changes in industry-level employment for the major states overthe year to February.
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FIGURE 1. CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, YEAR TO FEBRUARY 2013
-40 0 40 80 120 160 200
TOTAL
Wholesale Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Education and Training
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Health Care and Social Assistance
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Mining
Construction
Retail Trade
Arts and Recreation Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Administrative and Support Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Public Administration and Safety
Other Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Manufacturing
'000 change in employment, year to February 2013 Source: ABS
FIGURE 2. EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA FEBRUARY 2013
000s '000 % '000 % % y/y%
Agriculture 321.2 2.8 3.4 1.1 -15.5 -4.6 -2.5 -2.7
Mining 265.7 2.3 2.4 0.9 15.1 6.0 9.6 4.9
Manufacturing 941.4 8.1 -30.8 -3.2 -28.9 -3.0 -0.7 -1.4
Utilities 137.1 1.2 -8.5 -5.8 -18.5 -11.6 5.0 -16.2
Construction 1,026.6 8.8 16.5 1.6 14.1 1.4 3.0 2.5
Wholesale trade 462.8 4.0 39.5 9.3 65.5 16.5 0.4 14.3
Retail trade 1,217.7 10.5 -4.2 -0.3 10.4 0.9 1.5 -0.7
Hospitality 800.1 6.9 15.6 2.0 58.3 7.9 2.0 4.8
Transport & postal 605.1 5.2 4.3 0.7 55.5 10.1 2.4 9.1
IT, media & telecomms 217.4 1.9 -4.2 -1.9 -5.9 -2.7 -0.1 -2.1
Finance & insurance 412.1 3.5 -7.0 -1.7 -12.9 -2.8 1.7 -5.5
Rental & real estate 199.3 1.7 2.5 1.3 -25.5 -11.4 3.0 -6.9
Professional services 919.1 7.9 15.1 1.7 31.8 3.6 3.6 5.2
Administrative services 395.8 3.4 -3.4 -0.9 -8.2 -2.0 2.0 -1.4
Public admin. 722.4 6.2 25.8 3.7 -19.2 -2.6 3.0 -2.7
Education 924.8 8.0 26.0 2.9 54.8 6.7 2.9 8.4
Health 1,393.8 12.0 22.5 1.6 46.3 3.4 4.1 1.8
Arts & recreation 200.6 1.7 -10.3 -4.9 -1.8 -0.6 3.1 1.6
Other services 453.4 3.9 -2.8 -0.6 -23.8 -5.0 0.8 -6.5
All In dust ries 11,616.4 100.0 102.5 0.9 191.4 1.7 2.1 1.4
% of total
Employment (sa) Employment Aggregate
hours worked
Average annual
growth since
2000y/y change
Employment
q/q change
Source: ABS
FIGURE 3. CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, THREE YEARS TO FEBRUARY 2013
-80 -40 0 40 80 120 160 200
Health Care and Social Assistance
Mining
Education and Training
Accommodation and Food Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Public Administration and Safety
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Construction
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Information Media and Telecommunications
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Arts and Recreation Services
Administrative and Support Services
Financial and Insurance ServicesOther Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Manufacturing
'000 change in employment over past 3 years
Source: ABS
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REDUNDANCIES DECLINE
After a clear increase in the number of redundancies in 2012, the number of
unemployed classified as involuntary job losers declined over the threemonths to February (Figure 4). By state, most of the fall in involuntary job losers
was centred in Queensland (Figure 5). This possibly reflects that most of the public-
sector job cuts announced in mid 2012 had been completed by the end of the year.
FIGURE 4. REASONS UNEMPLOYED ARE LOOKING FOR FULL-TIME WORK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Shareoftotalpersons
lookingforfull-timework
Involuntary job loser Voluntary job leaver Former worker Never worked
Sources: ABS, ANZ
FIGURE 5. NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED* INVOLUNTARY JOB LOSERS BY STATE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
000s
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
000s
NSW Vic QLD SA WA Tas ACT NT * Seeking full-time employment
Sources: ABS, ANZ
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY: SELECTED HIGHLIGHTS
MINING EMPLOYMENT STABILISES
Mining employment appears to be recovering slowly after a weak patch last
year amid sharply lower commodity prices. ABS data suggest that mining
employment in Queensland rebounded to a new high as coal mining employment
recovered (Figures 6 & 7). Mining employment in Western Australia increased
modestly over the three months to February despite a further fall in metal ore
mining employment (the rise appears to have been in exploration and other mining
services).
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In contrast, and consistent with anecdotal evidence, mining employment in NSW,
particularly coal mining jobs, continued to fall over the three months to
February.
Looking ahead, the relatively high labour costs in mining suggests that growth in
mining employment is unlikely to match that in the period leading up to mid 2012
(Figure 8).
FIGURE 6. MINING EMPLOYMENT BY STATE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Employedpersons(000s,sa)
NSW Victoria Queensland WA SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)
Employedper
sons(000s,sa)
Sources: ABS, ANZ
FIGURE 7. COAL AND METAL ORE MINING EMPLOYMENT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
00 01 03 04 06 07 09 10 12 13 01 02 04 05 07 08 10 11 13
Numberofemployed,seasonallyadjusted
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
Numberofemployed,seasonallyadjusted
Coal mining employment Metal ore mining employment
NSW
Western
Australia
Queensland
TotalTotal
Sources: ABS, ANZ
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FIGURE 8. WAGES AS A PER CENT OF SALES REVENUE
7
10
13
16
19
22
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Wagesas%o
fnominalsales
Mining Non-mining Total Source: ABS
Employment in some sectors that have benefited from the mining investment
boom remained strong over the three months to February. Employment in
architectural, engineering & technical services bounced back, generating most of the
gain in overall professional, scientific and technical services employment over that
period (Figure 9). By state, this strength was most pronounced in WA and Victoria but
also picked up in other states, including South Australia and Tasmania (Figure 10).
Likewise, employment growth in road transport has been very strong but this
may temper due to the lagged effects of weaker output growth in that industry
(Figure 11).FIGURE 9. PROFESSIONAL SERVICES EMPLOYMENT BREAKDOWN, AUSTRALIA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
000s,seasonallyadjusted
Architectural, Engineering and Technical Services Legal and Accounting ServicesManagement and Related Consulting Services Computer System Design and Related ServicesOther
Sources: ABS, ANZ
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FIGURE 10. ARCHITECTURAL & ENGINEERING SERVICES EMPLOYMENT BY STATE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
000s,seasonallyadjusted
NSW Victoria Queensland WA Other
Sources: ABS, ANZ
FIGURE 11. ROAD TRANSPORT EMPLOYMENT AND OUTPUT GROWTH
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
y/y%c
hange
Road transport employment Road transport output (forward 5 qtrs, trend)
Sources: ABS, ANZ
Other business services employment has been soft, in part likely reflecting a
keen focus on costs among businesses in general. Over the year to February, much of
the weakness in finance & insurance employment was at depository institutions, whilethe contraction in rental & real estate employment was concentrated inproperty
managers which had grown strongly over the previous year. The contraction in other
services employment over the year to February was more than accounted for by a
fall in machinery & equipment repair & maintenance, which could be partly related to
cost cutting in the mining industry.
CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT RISES FURTHER
Construction employment rose further over the three months to February,
broadly in line with a modest pick up in building output (Figure 12).
Construction employment rose further in Victoria after a surprisingly large increase
over the three months to November, while Queensland also recorded a solid increase
(Figure 13). In contrast, construction employment in NSW, South Australia andTasmania remained relatively subdued.
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Despite weak building construction employment in recent years,
construction jobs tied to the mining investment boom have grown strongly.
This can be seen in strong growth in construction services (until recently) and
construction not further defined (nfd) employment (Figure 14).
FIGURE 12. CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT
0
5
10
15
20
25
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
$billions,realoutputperquarter
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
000s
Private building work done (real, LHS) Public building work done (real, LHS)
Construction employment (RHS) Sources: ABS, ANZ
FIGURE 13. CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT BY STATE
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
E
mployedpersons(000s,sa)
NSW Victoria Queensland WA SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)
Employedpersons(000s,sa
)
Sources: ABS, ANZ
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FIGURE 14. CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT BY SUB-SECTOR
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
000s,4quarteraverage
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
000s,4quarteraverage
Construction nfd (LHS) Building construction (LHS)
Heavy and Civil Engineering (LHS) Construction services (RHS) Source: ABS
PUBLIC-SECTOR EMPLOYMENT SHOWS SURPRISING REBOUND
Public administration and safety employment was estimated to have risen by
around 25,000 persons over the three months to February but remained
lower in year-ended terms. The recent strength was purportedly in the large states
of Victoria, NSW and Queensland but this is difficult to gel with the tight rein on public
spending (Figure 15). However, employment in hospitals appears to have declined
noticeably over the six months to February, possibly reflecting government cost
cutting.
Health and education employment, which have been generally much lessaffected by tighter government finances, continued to trend strongly higher
over the three months to February (Figure 16).
Employment in health and education now accounts for one if five jobs in
Australia and has risen much faster than employment in other industries for an
extended period. The trend increase in health employment can clearly be seen across
all states (Figure 17).
FIGURE 15. PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION EMPLOYMENT BY STATE
0
50
100
150
200
250
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
0
8
16
24
32
40
Employedpersons(000s,sa)
NSW Victoria Queensland WA
ACT SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)
Employedpersons(000s,sa)
Sources: ABS, ANZ
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FIGURE 16. HEALTH & EDUCATION VS OTHER INDUSTRIES EMPLOYMENT
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
January2005=100
Education & training Health Care and Social Assistance Other industries Sources: ABS, ANZ
FIGURE 17. HEALTH EMPLOYMENT BY STATE
0
100
200
300
400
500
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
0
8
16
24
32
40
Employedpersons
(000s,sa)
NSW Victoria Queensland SA
WA Tasmania (RHS) ACT (RHS) NT (RHS)
Employedp
ersons(000s,sa)
Sources: ABS, ANZ
MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT FALLS AFTER SHOWING SUPRISING RESILIENCE TO
HIGHER AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
Manufacturing employment declined by around 30,000 persons over thethree months to February, with declines recorded across most states
(Figure 18). Manufacturings share of aggregate employment had remained relatively
steady over the prior year despite significant pressure on parts of the industry from
the high Australian dollar (Figure 19).
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FIGURE 18. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT BY STATE
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
Employedpersons(000s,sa)
NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)
Employedpersons(000s,sa)
Sources: ABS, ANZ
FIGURE 19. SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
0
5
10
15
20
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Percent
oftotalemployment
60
65
70
75
80
Percentoftotalem
ployment
Agriculture (LHS) Construction (LHS) Mining (LHS)
Manufacturing (LHS) Services (RHS)
Source: ABS
RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT REMAINED WEAK BUT WHOLESALE TRADE AND
ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICES EMPLOYMENT HAS BEEN STRONG
Retail trade employment fell in the most recent three months and rose only
modestly over the year to February (Figure 20). Reflecting consumption patterns
at the state level, most of the strength in retail employment has been in Western
Australia (Figure 21). By sub-sector, falls in employment in specialised food, electrical
goods, hardware and clothing retailing have been offset by gains in supermarket,
department store, non-store and other retailing.
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FIGURE 20. RETAIL TRADE VS RETAIL SALES VOLUMES
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Retail trade employment Real retail sales, 12m forward
y/y%c
hange
Source: ABS
FIGURE 21. RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT BY STATE
0
100
200
300
400
500
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
0
8
16
24
32
40
Employedpersons(000s,sa)
NSW Victoria Queensland SA
WA Tasmania (RHS) ACT (RHS) NT (RHS)
Employed
persons(000s,sa)
Sources: ABS, ANZ
Despite the softness in retail trade employment,jobs growth has been much
stronger in the wholesale trade industry. Some of this strength, however, is
likely to be statistical noise as it is difficult to fathom how a sector that accounts
for 4% of total employment could create around one-third of aggregate employment
growth over the year. While strong growth in motor vehicle and grocery wholesale
employment is consistent with robust output growth in these sub-sectors, it is difficult
to explain the strength in timber and hardware wholesaling employment (Figure 22).
It is possible that the expansion of major hardware chains in Australia has supported
growth in hardware at the wholesale level, timber wholesaling would surely be feeling
the adverse effects of weakness in the detached housing market. Strong growth in
wholesale trade not further definedemployment may be related to strong online
retail sales growth.
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FIGURE 22. WHOLESALE TRADE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SUB-SECTOR
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Timber andHardware
Goods
Wholesaling
Motor Vehicleand Motor
Vehicle Parts
Wholesaling
Grocery, Liquorand Tobacco
Product
Wholesaling
Pharmaceuticaland Toiletry
Goods
Wholesaling
WholesaleTrade, not
further defined
OtherChangeinemploymentoveryeartoFebruary2013,000s
Source: ABS
Employment also increased sharply in the accommodation & food services
industry, particularly in NSW, in the most recent three months and over the year
(Figure 23). Year-ended growth, however, is overstated due to a temporary fall in
employment in February 2013 (which looks like statistical noise) but even in trend
terms appears out of line with weak output growth in the industry (Figure 24). The
pattern in employment in the industry has been mixed, however, across states. In
Queensland, for example, the relative weakness in tourism in that state has meant
that growth in hospitality employment has slowed sharply in recent years relative to
earlier periods.
FIGURE 23. ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES EMPLOYMENT BY STATE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
0
12
24
36
48
60
72
Employedpersons(000s,sa)
NSW Victoria Queensland WA
SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) ACT (RHS) NT (RHS)
Employedpersons(000s,sa)
Sources: ABS, ANZ
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FIGURE 24. ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES OUTPUT & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
y/y%c
hange
Hospitality output growth Hospitality employment growth (trend)
Source: ABS
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APPENDIX CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY STATE, YEAR TO FEBRUARY 2013
NSW
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
TOTAL
Accommodation and Food Services
Wholesale Trade
Education and Training
Health Care and Social Assistance
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Arts and Recreation Services
Manufacturing
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Mining
Administrative and Support Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Other Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Retail Trade
Construction
Public Administration and Safety
'000 change in employment over the year to February
Victoria
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
TOTAL
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Construction
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Health Care and Social Assistance
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Education and Training
Information Media and Telecommunications
Wholesale Trade
Public Administration and Safety
Mining
Arts and Recreation Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Other Services
Administrative and Support Services
Manufacturing
'000 change in employment over the year to February
Queensland
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Construction
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
TOTAL
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Mining
Other Services
Wholesale Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
Public Administration and Safety
Accommodation and Food Services
Administrative and Support Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Education and Training
Information Media and Telecommunications
Retail Trade
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Arts and Recreation Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
'000 change in employment over the year to February
South Australia
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Health Care and Social Assistance
Wholesale Trade
Education and Training
Public Administration and Safety
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Mining
Information Media and Telecommunications
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
TOTAL
Administrative and Support Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Construction
Accommodation and Food Services
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Retail Trade
Other Services
Arts and Recreation Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Manufacturing
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
'000 change in employment over the year to February
Western Australia
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
TOTAL
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Retail Trade
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Administrative and Support Services
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Mining
Education and Training
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Wholesale Trade
Information Media and Telecommunications
Public Administration and Safety
Arts and Recreation Services
Construction
Financial and Insurance Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Manufacturing
Other Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
'000 change in employment over the year to February
Tasmania
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Education and Training
Manufacturing
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Mining
Administrative and Support Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
TOTAL
Financial and Insurance ServicesElectricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Other Services
Arts and Recreation Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Public Administration and Safety
Construction
'000 change in employment over the year to February
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