Laboratory of Climate and Water Resources ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006...
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Transcript of Laboratory of Climate and Water Resources ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006...
Laboratory of Climate and Water Resources
ENSEMBLES RT6 MeetingLund, Sweden, November 20, 2006
Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment
of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań. Poland
Head – Professor Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Involved personel:
Dr Małgorzata Szwed
Dr Maciej Radziejewski
Ms Iwona Pińskwar
Mr Dariusz Graczyk
Areas of PAS’s interests:
droughtsfloodscrop yieldheat and cold waves
ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006
CLIMATEEvaporation
Soilmoisture Crop
yield
RunoffExtreme
flows
Healtheffects
ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006
CLIMATE Evaporation Runoff Extremeflows
ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006
Estimating of the evaporation/evapotranspiration:
Turc equation for Europe
Ivanov equation for Europe
method of heat balance for Poland
ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006
Variable Land use
deciduous coniferous urban green sugar
forest forest areas crops cereal beet
P 610,7 610,7 610,7 610,7 610,7 610,7
E 903,2 982,0 464,5 671,9 738,2 818,9
H = P-E 14,0 -41,1 298,1 144,9 105,4 91,8
1961-1990
Variable Land use
deciduous coniferous urban green sugar
forest forest areas crops cereal beet
P 546,1 546,1 546,1 546,1 546,1 546,1
E 687,8 748,8 352,9 531,2 574,5 596,5
H = P-E -141,7 -202,7 193,2 14,9 -28,4 -50,4
2071-2100
P, E, H in (mm)
Based on Had RM3 PRECIS – result,
For the future scenario A2
For grid-cell with the city of Poznań
Cereal
Sugar beet
Forest
Urban area Green crops
Land use in grid-cell with the city of Poznań
ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006
1961-1990 2071-2100
month P E H P E H
1 58,1 9,0 49,0 58,5 20,2 38,3
2 51,3 14,4 36,9 59,3 25,2 34,1
3 47,6 25,0 22,7 42,3 24,4 17,9
4 50,1 46,5 3,6 48,7 45,1 3,6
5 58,4 76,2 -17,8 60,7 78,8 -18,2
6 69,8 92,6 -22,8 55,7 98,7 -43,0
7 60,1 104,4 -44,3 35,5 116,4 -81,0
8 39,9 67,5 -27,6 19,2 74,2 -55,0
9 36,0 41,9 -5,9 23,0 45,4 -22,3
10 35,9 15,9 20,0 33,4 17,7 15,7
11 48,7 19,0 29,7 51,2 29,9 21,3
12 54,8 8,8 46,0 58,6 19,2 39,4
year 610,7 521,1 89,6 546,1 595,3 -49,1
P, E, H in (mm)
Based on Had RM3 PRECIS – result,
For the future scenario A2
For grid-cell with the city of Poznań
CLIMATE Soilmoisture
Cropyield
ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006
Example:
The potato yield (ton/ha)as a function of the July and August
precipitations (mm) (Górski,1996).
CLIMATE Healtheffects
0-55-1010-1515-20
0
0-2
2-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
0
0-2
2-5
5-10
0-5
5-10
eu1 resampled
1 2
3 4
Hot days (temp. max>35oC i temp. min>25oC) in the future
1. Average number of hot days in JJA 2. Average duration of hot days spell in JJA
3, 4 Diference of characteristics 1. and 2. (future versus present)
base
d on
Had
RM
3 P
RE
CIS
– r
esul
t
How do we interpret the idea of ENSEMBLES RT6.2:
Sought impact response surfaces: Given T(x,y,t) and P(x,y,t) with daily resolution
for future scenarios Find IMPi(x,y,t), where IMPi is the i-th impact
function, i=1, ..., N
ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006
Three groups of problems:
Ensembles of climatic scenarios are not available yet! Problems with real data availability (high costs which
cannot be borne from low ENSEMBLES budget, restrictions, some data – e.g. on impacts – are not available at all – e.g. insurance data are classified).
Scarcity of data on extreme extremes, e. g. 1997 flood in Poland – by far exceeding all other events (hence – one data point only), the same for 2003 heat wave in much of Europe!
ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006
Thank you
ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006