LAB B3 - Wick

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    John WickLAB B3 Narrative

    EDUC 746

    The purpose of this study was to predict if skiers are more likely to fall based upon the

    season and difficulty level of the ski run. The research question being examined is: Can we

    accurately predict a skiers likelihood to fall if we know the season and the difficulty level of the

    ski run?

    There are three variables in this study: Falling, Difficulty, and Season. The dependent

    variable is the probability of falling or not falling. The independent variables are Difficulty and

    season. Difficulty is a categorical variable that has been treated as a continuous variable. Season

    is a categorical variable that contains three seasons. Two of the seasons Autumn and spring, are

    further coded into dummy variables.

    The participants for this study are skiers and the sample size is n=15.

    The analysis that was performed for this study is Logistical regression. Results of this

    analysis indicate that the overall model with predictors doesnt fit well when compared to the

    model with no predictors, X2 (3,15) = 2.71, p > .05. Furthermore, the odds ratio is positive,

    2.748 > 1 which means that when the difficulty level increases it is more likely that the skier will

    fall into the category coded as 1 (falling down), however the p value of the Wald test is .347

    indicating that this increase is not statistically significant.

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    John WLAB B3 Narra

    EDUC

    GET

    FILE='/Users/John/Documents/APU/EdD/ADV SATS/LAB A/LAB B/LAB B3

    Data.sav'.

    DATASET NAME DataSet1 WINDOW=FRONT.COMPUTE Season1=0.

    EXECUTE.

    IF (Season = 1) Season1=1.

    EXECUTE.

    COMPUTE Season2=0.

    EXECUTE.

    IF (Season = 2) Season2=1.

    EXECUTE.

    SAVE OUTFILE='/Users/John/Documents/APU/EdD/ADV SATS/LAB A/LAB B/LA

    B3 Data.sav'/COMPRESSED.

    LOGISTIC REGRESSION VARIABLES Fall

    /METHOD=ENTER Difficulty Season1 Season2

    /CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10) ITERATE(20) CUT(.5).

    Logistic Regression

    [DataSet1] /Users/John/Documents/APU/EdD/ADV SATS/LAB A/LAB B/LAB B

    Data.sav

    Case Processing Summary

    Unweighted Casesa N Percent

    Selected Cases Included in Analysis 15 100.0

    Missing Cases 0 .0

    Total 15 100.0

    Unselected Cases 0 .0

    Total 15 100.0

    a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total

    number of cases.

    Dependent Variable Encoding

    Original Value Internal Value

    Not Falling 0

    Falling 1

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    John WLAB B3 Narra

    EDUC

    Block 0: Beginning Block

    Classification Tablea,b

    Observed

    Predicted

    Fall Percentage

    CorrectNot Falling Falling

    Step 0 Fall Not Falling 0 6 .0

    Falling 0 9 100.0

    Overall Percentage 60.0

    a. Constant is included in the model.

    b. The cut value is .500

    Variables in the Equation

    B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

    Step 0 Constant .405 .527 .592 1 .442 1.500

    Variables not in the Equation

    Score df Sig.Step 0 Variables Difficulty 1.746 1 .186

    Season1 1.250 1 .264

    Season2 .417 1 .519

    Overall Statistics 2.454 3 .484

    Block 1: Method = Enter

    Omnibus Tests of Model CoefficientsChi-square df Sig.

    Step 1 Step 2.710 3 .439

    Block 2.710 3 .439

    Model 2.710 3 .439

    Model Summary

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    John WLAB B3 Narra

    EDUC

    Step

    -2 Log

    likelihood

    Cox & Snell R

    Square

    Nagelkerke R

    Square

    1 17.481a .165 .223

    a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 4 because

    parameter estimates changed by less than .001.

    Classification Tablea

    Observed

    Predicted

    Fall Percentage

    CorrectNot Falling Falling

    Step 1 Fall Not Falling 4 2 66.7

    Falling 1 8 88.9Overall Percentage 80.0

    a. The cut value is .500

    Variables in the Equation

    B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

    Step 1a Difficulty 1.011 .896 1.273 1 .259 2.748

    Season1 .928 1.589 .341 1 .560 2.528

    Season2 -.418 1.387 .091 1 .763 .658

    Constant -1.777 1.890 .884 1 .347 .169

    a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Difficulty, Season1, Season2.