L01 - Scope and Role of QNA (ENG)

7/27/2019 L01 - Scope and Role of QNA (ENG)

1/9

1

Quarterly National Accounts Course

Joint Vienna Institute

August 5 - 16, 2013

L-1: Scope and Role of QNA

Reproductions of this material or any parts of it should refer to the IMF Statistics Department as the source

Lecture Outline

Scope of QNA

Role and uses of QNA

Time-series oriented data

Timeliness vs. Reliability

T e Nee or Revisions

IMF Statistics Department JVI/QNA/L1 : 2


2/9

2

What is Quarterly National Accounts?

S stem of inte rated uarterl time seriescoordinated through a consistent accountingframework (SNA)

In principle cover the entire sequence of accounts andbalance sheets in the 1993 SNA

Adopt the same principles, definitions and structure ase annua na ona accoun s

Usually less complete than ANA because of dataavailability, time, and resource constraints

Provided on a timely basis (SDDS requirement: 3-month)

JVI/QNA/L1 : 3IMF Statistics Department

Scope of QNA

At current prices and in volume terms:

GDP by the production approach

GDP by the expenditure approach

At current prices:

Gross National Income (GNI) Gross Saving



3/9

3

Scope of QNA

Advanced com ilation

Seasonally adjusted GDP, in addition to the originaldata very valuable for users

Full sequence of quarterly accounts by institutionalsector

Balance sheets


Role of QNA

development that is

More timely than ANA,

More comprehensive than short-term statistics

To meet this purpose, QNA should be

Timel

Accurate/ReliableComprehensive

Consistent

DetailedJVI/QNA/L1 : 6IMF Statistics Department


4/9

4

Role of Quarterly National Accounts

Monitoring Business Cycles - Quarterly versus Annual DataAnnual data mask short term economic developments

5800

6000

6200

6400

6600

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

5200

5400

5600

1300

1350

1400

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

quarterly GDP (left hand scale) annual GDP (right hand scale)


Uses of QNA

Early identification of changes in trends

Timely implementation of economic policies

Macro-economic forecasts, including early estimates ofannual accounts

Framework for business cycle analysis

Econometric modeling, including studies of seasonalpatterns

Price and volume decomposition of nominal growth



5/9

5


Definition: a set of measurements on a ivenphenomenon over consecutive, equally spacedperiods of time, which facilitates:

identification of underlying trend and turning points

allows different periods to be compared (growth rates)

Re uirements

Consistency over time of concepts and measurement

Ordered observations dependent through time



January, February, March, ; Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4

Cumulative data do not constitute time series

January, JanuaryFebruary, JanuaryMarche.g. they do not allow Aprils performance to becompared with Januarys

Should cover a sufficient number of yearsminimum 5 years for time series procedures (e.g.seasonal adjustment)



6/9

6


Should facilitate anal sis of the develo ment overtime in a flexible manner

The change from the same period in the previous year(withs number of seasons in a year):

1 100t

t s

I

I

The change from the previous period (period-to-periodgrowth rate):

1

1 100t

t

I

I



TCt

long-term trend and cyclical movements

St seasonal effects

t t t t Y TC S I

It irregular component

Most QNA users are interested in seasonally adjusted series,i.e. series from which the seasonal component

has been appropriately removed



7/9

7

Seasonality in QNA

Identification of Turnin Points

Unadjusted QNA series

106.0

110.0

114.0

94.0

98.0

102.0

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3


Seasonality in QNA

Seasonally adjusted QNA series

106.0

110.0

114.0

94.0

98.0

102.0

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3



8/9

8

Seasonality in QNA

Identification of Turnin Points

Seasonally adjusted series

106.0

110.0

114.0

94.0

98.0

102.0

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3


Timeliness vs Reliability: the Need forRevisions

Data compilation takes time

Collection of comprehensive and reliable data iscostly

Trade-off between timeliness, comprehensiveness



9/9

9

Timeliness vs Reliability: the Need forRevisions

A well-balanced solution

Annual accounts

Preliminary version (after few months)

Revised and final versions (after several years)

More accurate, detailed and comprehensive .. but not timely

Quarterly accounts

,

Flash estimates

Coordinated revision of annual and quarterly estimates

Clear and transparent revision policy required(GDDS/SDDS requirement)


L01 - Scope and Role of QNA (ENG)

Documents

Transcript of L01 - Scope and Role of QNA (ENG)